Strategic Latency and World Order

This article examines “strategic latency,” a condition in which technologies that could provide military (or economic) advantage remain untapped. As difficult as it is to explain why certain ideas and technologies flourish and find rapid acceptance, it is equally hard to understand why some good ideas languish, only to be rediscovered and exploited under other circumstances. Why is latent capacity so often dormant? What are the indicators that latent capacity is on the verge of being weaponized?

History is merely a list of surprises. . . . It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.Kurt Vonnegut, Slapstick

     

The limits to global redistribution: Thinking like an egalitarian labour movement

Should global egalitarians based in a given country seek to redistribute all wealth equally amongst the world's people, recognising no priority for fellow citizens? This philosophical question is directly relevant to a pressing practical one: what is the appropriate stance for egalitarians to adopt in controversies around foreign aid and free trade? This paper explores how such matters might look to a labour movement situated in a better-off country but committed to global equality. There are several reasons offered why the latter would not seek an immediately equal share-out of its country's wealth among all the world's individuals. Yet the same considerations that support limiting global obligations also point to various limits to the limits, and imply redistributive generosity on the part of richer societies. A still more radical global redistribution becomes possible only with world economic governance, for which egalitarians should strive.     

The Effect of Bargaining on US Economic Aid

This article is designed to explore the effect of bargaining power on the distribution of US economic aid. Conceptualizing US foreign assistance as the outcome of aid-for-policy transactions between the donor and its recipients, it shows why the bargaining issue is an integral part of US economic aid. A two-tiered stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) is then developed to integrate the bargaining effect into our empirical analysis. Applying the model to US economic aid for the period of 1976–2011, I show empirical results that strongly support the bargaining approach. The results show that the bargaining effect explains a fundamental part of the cross-recipient difference in the level of US economic aid. On average, the donor US enjoys more bargaining power. However, a huge variation in bargaining capability on the recipient side is equally noteworthy. As for the contributors to the difference, the statistical results reveal that bargaining efficiency increases with higher per capita income, ongoing civil war, violations of personal integrity rights, and a more democratic regime, on the one hand. Importing heavily from and having an active defense pact with the US, on the other hand, affect bargaining efficiency negatively.     

Globalisation

The term ‘globalisation’ is widely used to describe a variety of economic, cultural, social, and political changes that have shaped the world over the past 50-odd years. Because it is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, globalisation has been credited with a wide range of powers and effects. Its proponents claim that it is both ‘natural’ and an inevitable outcome of technological progress, and creates positive economic and political convergences. Critics argue that globalisation is hegemonic and antagonistic to local and national economies. This article argues that globalisation is a form of capitalist expansion that entails the integration of local and national economies into a global, unregulated market economy. Although economic in its structure, globalisation is equally a political phenomenon, shaped by negotiations and interactions between institutions of transnational capital, nation states, and international institutions. Its main driving forces are institutions of global capitalism – especially transnational corporations – but it also needs the firm hand of states to create enabling environments for it to take root. Globalisation is always accompanied by liberal democracy, which facilitates the establishment of a neo-liberal state and policies that permit globalisation to flourish. The article discusses the relationship between globalisation and development and points out that some of the most common assumptions promoted by its proponents are contradictory to the reality of globalisation; and that globalisation is resisted by more than half of the globe's population because it is not capable of delivering on its promises of economic well being and progress for all.     

Explaining Styles of Financial Market Opening in Chile, Mexico, South Korea, and Turkey

This study examines financial opening in middle-income countries and identifies the variables that shape its basic features. We find that the widely noted increase in international capital mobility has not constrained financial policy-making equally across states. A country's economic conditions and need for external funds determine its government's bargaining power vis-à-vis international actors and domestic groups with respect to financial policy. Governments with low bargaining power, because domestic economic conditions are poor or need for external funds is high, must open financial markets completely to attract or retain capital. Conversely, governments with high bargaining power may be able to retain some controls on capital flows or deny foreign banks access to domestic markets and still have access to capital.
To explore these issues, this article looks at opening in Chile, Mexico, South Korea, and Turkey. These countries opened their financial systems in very different ways. Turkey and Mexico liberalized their markets almost completely, whereas Korea (1980–98) kept barriers to capital entry and Chile (1991–98) retained barriers to capital exit. Although economic conditions explain the basic style of financial opening, they cannot account for the residual barriers that persist in mostly open markets or the pace and timing of reforms. Domestic political factors, particularly, the interests of leaders and key social groups as well as their relative bargaining power, help to explain these variables. The paper develops a typology of styles of financial opening to encourage systematic thinking about the origins and consequences of differences in style.     

关于美国“重返亚太”的几点看法

2011年美国高调“重返亚太”的实质是从过去集中关注全球反恐战争回归到全面经营亚太。其主要特点有：战略重点向亚太地区倾斜,加大对经济手段的倚重,加大军事上进攻色彩,加强对中国的防范。美国高调“重返亚太”具有深刻的背景和出于多重战略考虑,并且迄今已收到一些效果。但也应看到,美国“重返亚太”也存在许多难以克服的阻力和制约因素,这些因素既有亚太地区内和外部的,也有美国国内经济、政治、社会方面的。     

The United States' approach to Algeria's civil conflict: Implications for democratization,internal peace and anti-American violence

The United States' approach to Algeria's civil conflict has been based on the stringent assumption that a choice must be made between a secular government that is prowestern (although corrupt and repressive) and an Islamist regime that is anti-western (although equally repressive if allowed to govern). The article shows that this approach not only works to sustain authoritarianism in Algeria and reinforce a vicious cycle of poverry and civil violence, but also ignores the causal links between the practice of dictatorship in the country and the rise of anti-American violence. In this sense, America's foreign policy towards Algeria is a contributory factor to transnational terrorism. An alternative approach that is based on economic development and democracy promotion is proposed here to achieve sustainable democracy and internal peace in Algeria and weaken the forces that give rise to antiAmerican violence.     

The symbiosis between Palestinian ‘Fayyadism’ and Israeli ‘economic peace’: the political economy of capitalist peace in the context of colonisation

Abstract

Recent years have seen both the Palestinian Authority and Israeli government conveying the supremacy of economic approaches over politics to achieve peace and stability. More specifically, the encounter and symbiosis between Palestinian 'Fayyadism' as a professional application of neo-liberal approaches to state-building and economic development, and the Israeli strategy of 'economic peace' towards the Palestinians have shaped much of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamic, with a particularly discernible materialisation in the West Bank. This article critically analyses this dynamic in light of the recently revived theory of 'capitalist peace', which, despite valid criticism, entails considerable similarities with the basic assumptions of 'Fayyadism' and 'economic peace'. While two key dimensions express this symbiosis—security co-ordination and economic normalisation—the article focuses mainly on the economic part, particularly the case of joint industrial zones, which exemplify the most extreme example of this symbiosis.     

A distributional theory of economic democracy

In the twentieth century, while political democracy triumphed economic democracy failed both as an idea and in practice. A case for reviving the idea of economic democracy is made in terms of protecting political democracy. Economic democracy has conventionally been understood as a matter of bringing economic power under the control of collective political power. The idea is here reformulated as a matter of redistributing economic power between persons, of giving people a share in economic power directly rather than through elected representatives. Political democracy is assumed, which is to say that political power is under the control of the middle class. The question then is under what conditions the middle class might want and think it could use political power to redistribute economic power. The conclusions are that there is in advanced capitalist democracies considerable scope for the redistribution of economic power between the rich and the middle class. As for the empowerment of the poor, however, anti-poverty policies beyond the containment of poverty are unlikely to emerge today in countries where that did not happen under earlier historical conditions.     

Contradictions between economic liberalization and democratization: The case of South Korea

This article examines the relationships between economic liberalization and democratization in South Korea. The two processes are often correlated, but in Korea liberalization has been problematic for democratization. Domestic liberalization initially expanded space for labour organizations, but after they appeared to become too active, the process was so managed as to block political activity. This also resulted from pressures brought on by international liberalization, which made competitive wage costs increasingly important and raised the prospect of disinvestment by Korean and foreign firms. Liberalization has not reduced the power of business (the chaebol). Deregulation and privatization have encouraged a transfer of public economic power to the private sector. The increased political role of business is not necessarily beneficial, and the chaebol's economic power represents a threat to democratization in a variety of ways. In previous decades state power rested on economic controls; and the main impetus for democratization has come from the expansion of civil society through economic development, rather than from economic liberalization. State intervention in the economy may continue to be required to protect the position of certain civil society groups and to control business power, but domestic and international liberalization have challenged both of these functions and may increasingly curtail them in the future. Thus, close examination of the specifics of liberalization in South Korea show no automatic positive correlation can be made between economic and political reform without risking either reductionism or reification.     

Trade relations between Europe and East Asia

The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) framework was created in 1996, with the primary purpose of strengthening economic, political and cultural relations among the 15 countries of the European Union and ten East Asian states. This paper examines the origins of these recent economic linkages, in a global and inter-regional context.¶The paper charts the principal elements of ASEMs economic pillar to date, assesses the influence of multilateral trading environments (notably the WTO) on the region-to-region dialogue and examines ASEMs impact on intra-regional economic developments, especially in the case of East Asia.¶The paper will focus in particular on the flagship projects of trade and investment facilitation, to discuss whether and to what extent ASEM itself can be seen to further cooperation and coordination in specific fields of activity.¶The final part of the paper aims to analyse the prospects for future economic relations between East Asia and Europe, in the wake of a devastating financial crisis in Asia, in the context of a continued war on terror which, since the Bali bombing has had an even more immediate impact on Asia, and in the changing global economic environment as regulated by the tenets of the WTO.     

The emergence of regional economies in China and its implications,with special reference to Hong Kong and Guangdong

  China's continental physical expanse has been a dominant, shaping influence of its political, social and economic development throughout its modern history. Thanks to its relative ethnic homogeneity, as well as the absence of political reform, it has – unlike the former Soviet Union – preserved its unity as a state. Nevertheless, regionalism remains a powerful counterpoint to centralisation in China. In particular, under the impact of post-1978 economic reforms, differentials and tensions between provinces and regions have emerged as a potent force, threatening the authority and power of Beijing. This article begins by seeking to explore some of the regional forms in which economic change has manifested itself during the last two decades. It highlights the unique problems faced by an economy that is still in transition in a country as large as China. Brief consideration is also given to the wider regional context in which China is sometimes placed as the central player – namely, that of `Greater China'. At the heart of the article is a case study that examines the evolution of a particular kind of regionalism, captured in the economic integration – even symbiosis - between Hong Kong and Guangdong. The question is addressed whether the form of regionalism contained within the forging of an ever-closer economic relationship between these two areas of South China can be a model for the integration of other regions both within and across China's national boundaries. Hong Kong's transformation from a tiny, dependent, colonial enclave into one of the most successful economies in the world is one of the most remarkable stories of post-World War II economic history. During the 1960s and 1970s, Hong Kong's growth record was unmatched anywhere else in the world. But by the beginning of the 1980s, high land rents and spiralling wages started to erode the international competitiveness that had been the basis of Hong Kong's previous economic success. By a happy coincidence, however, the emergence of such pressures coincided with the opening of China to the outside world. China's `open door' policy thereby made available to Hong Kong entrepreneurs a huge, hitherto untapped reservoir of cheap labour and gave them access to inexpensive factory sites just across the border in Guangdong. It was a lifeline to which they responded eagerly and, through the relocation of their factories, provided the means whereby Hong Kong manufacturers discovered a new lease of life. The benefits associated with this process accrued not only to Hong Kong through the regeneration of its manufacturing industry. Rather, it was a two-way process that also facilitated economic growth, structural transformation and improvements in living standards in Guangdong (above all, in the Pearl River Delta). In short, the process became the basis of deepening integration between the economies of the two regions. Indeed, it was the key element in the emergence of a new regional economic grouping, known as `Greater China' – an informal triangular partnership between Hong Kong, Taiwan and two southern Chinese provinces (Guangdong and Fujian). The emergence of `Greater China' can be regarded as a particular manifestation of the coastal bias that has so strongly characterised China's economic trajectory under reform. To this day, the triangular economic nexus between Hong Kong, Taiwan and South China remains an important dimension of China's external economic relations, even if developments in other coastal provinces have caused it to weaken. To what extent recent and future developments have challenged and will continue to challenge the regionalism inherent in the original notion of Greater China is something that deserves close attention. Not least, the strategic initiative of opening up China's western regions poses interesting and important questions that touch on future developments of `trans-nationalism' and `trans-regionalism' affecting China.     

Europe in Taiwan's Post-Cold War Foreign Relations

The article examines Taiwan's relationship with Europe (both Western and East Central), paying particular attention to the Taiwanese diplomatic strategies and their consequences in the 1990s and 2000s, as well as to the European responses. It argues that although Taipei's greatest triumphs in Europe—such as the arms deals, diplomatic or consular agreements or gaining support for membership in international organizations—proved either sporadic or short-lived, their very existence demonstrated that the China factor did not necessarily restrict the European nations' choices with regards to the Taiwan issue. This was particularly so when Taipei's economic rewards seemed sufficiently compensating for China's economic or political sanctions. More importantly, however, Taiwan—through economic diplomacy—successfully established strong foundations for long-term dialogue with all of Europe through representative offices, bilateral committees, parliamentary exchanges and periodical visits by government officials. Thus, Europe's functional relationship with Taiwan, which focused mainly on economic and cultural issues, not only facilitated low-key political dialogue with the island, but also stimulated Europe's interest in the geopolitical stability in the Taiwan Strait.     

Breaking the war‐economy link

We present evidence that the causal link from world production to war severity (as documented by Goldstein) begins to break down by the time of the Franco‐Prussian War. To explain this finding we develop a simple choice‐theoretic model based on the assumption of a long‐term decline in the (average) net economic benefits of war, as perceived by policymakers. We derive some additional macro‐level implications of this micro‐level model and discuss the ways in which advances in economic institutionalization provide policymakers with increasingly attractive alternative avenues for their pursuit of power and wealth.     

A Nested Game Approach to Political and Economic Liberalization in Democratizing States: The Case of South Korea

South Korea enjoyed high rates of economic growth until the mid–1990s. However in mid–1997 the country went into a severe economic crisis which ultimately resulted in a request for an IMF bailout. Leading up to the crisis, the government had embarked upon democratic liberalization but not much economic liberalization. This research explores why the government would lay the foundation for political reform without creating institutions capable of imposing economic reform on the politically powerful business sector. The absence of such institutions put the government in a position where it could not respond to the emerging economic crisis. The government's inability to act eroded its own position of power and governance. From this perspective, the government's inattention to economic reform appears irrational as it led to a weakening of its own position. We build a model of political and economic liberalization showing that the government was engaged in nested games (i.e., games in multiple arenas) with the political opposition, the labor unions, and the powerful business sector. We develop an argument that strong, antiliberal economic actors create incentive for the government in a democratizing state to refrain from economic liberalization, even while moving forward with democratic liberalization.     

广西北部湾经济区跨境继续教育规模发展研究

广西北部湾经济区建设需要跨境继续教育的支撑；经济区建设中继续教育覆盖率与经济发展指标有一定联系；广西北部湾经济区作为我国经济发展最快、经济最有活力的地区之一，对跨境继续教育的规模需求将形成新的预期；根据广西经济发展指标、广西外贸依存度以及广西就业人员数量，对“十二五”时期北部湾经济区继续教育需求规模及跨境继续教育需求规模作出预测分析。     

Security and development in the Caucasus

This article discusses the linkage between security and development in the Caucasus. In particular, it examines the degree to which developmental dysfunction has been a significant cause of conflict, the extent to which conflict has distorted the region's economic transition, and the role of development assistance in fostering conflict resolution. The article argues that the region's conflicts have had locally significant economic consequences and that they make it difficult for the region's states to cushion the effects of post‐communist economic transition. However, the collapse of command economies and the failure of governance have a stronger causal role in explaining the economic collapse and the halting quality of economic recovery. Turning to the role of development assistance in conflict resolution, aid agencies and donors have been reluctant to use development assistance as an instrument of conflict resolution. However, there has been some success in using micro‐level assistance to foster reconciliation between communities.     

The rule of law ‐ meaning and significance for security policy and reform

Given Russia's history of legal expediency and the emphasis of Western policy on economic liberalization, it is not surprising that Russian reforms have yet to produce a functioning market economy and effective political institutions, including civil‐military control. A Western‐style economic and military model is fundamentally built on the rule of law as a supreme and impartial tool of conflict resolution and distribution of rights and power. Without it, government action cannot be predicted, destroying trust in the institutions and denying private and public activity a basis for long‐term planning which is based on trust and predictability. Without long‐term planning neither companies nor armies can be successful, giving rise to a pseudo‐legal state of de facto laws. For its economic, political and military reforms to be successful Russia needs to emphasize the building of the institutions for developing and predictably enforcing a set of laws, an effort that needs to receive priority support from Western partners.     

Economic Sanctions,Poverty, and International Terrorism: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the impact of economic sanctions on international terrorism. It is argued that sanctions intensify economic hardships on the poor within countries and this increases their level of grievance and makes them more likely to support or engage in international terrorism. Further, economic sanctions are conceptualized as creating an opportunity for rogue leaders to manipulate aggrieved poor people to terrorize foreign entities who are demonized as engaging in a foreign encroachment on the sanctioned nation's sovereignty. A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 152 countries for the past three decades provides evidence that ceteris paribus, economic sanctions are positively associated with international terrorism. This finding suggests that, although the main purpose of economic sanctions is to coerce rogue countries to conform to international norms and laws, they can unintentionally produce a negative ramification and become a cause of international terrorism.     

从“国际经济政治化”角度看日本对东盟的经济援助

日本在二战后对东南亚国家实施的经济援助除了商业上的动机外 ,还带有很强的战略性。日本在战后对东盟国家的经济援助分 3个阶段 :第 1阶段是从战后初期到上世纪的 6 0年代末 ,日本对东盟经济援助处于初始阶段 ,这一时期经济援助的经济意义占很大比重 ,但也含有一定的政治含义 ,且比较隐蔽 ;第 2阶段是从上世纪70年代的“福田主义”的出笼到贯穿整个 80年代的“综合安全保障”战略 ,这一阶段日本在外交上倾向独立 ,对东盟经济援助的政治化开始显现 ;第 3阶段是从冷战结束到现在 ,这个阶段日本对东盟经济援助的政治意图明显 ,直接服务于其政治大国战略。