Democracy through War?

This article brings together three strands of democracy research which have thus far seldom been informed by one another: the empirical research associated with the ‘democratic peace’ thesis, the juridical-normative questions of legality, and moral-philosophical reasoning about just war. Linking the statistical analysis of the democratic peace to the findings of comparative research on democratization and to the normative debates occurring in law and philosophy on just and legitimized wars, there is an inescapable conclusion that: jus ad bellum and jus post bellum criteria must be closely tied. The protection of people threatened by mass murder and brutal violations of human rights requires not only a short-term military intervention, but also the intensive support to establish sustainable rule of law and democracy. External actors intervening for humanitarian reasons equally have a duty to contribute to long-term sustainable state- and democracy-building. Forced regime change and an international trusteeship protectorate can become legitimate and necessary means to guarantee justice after war and to reconcile jus ad bellum principles with duties post bellum. A premature withdrawal of intervening forces, for example in Afghanistan or in Iraq, would amount to a flagrant violation of external actors' post-war duties.     

Global Debate and the Limits of the Bush Doctrine

The "Bush Doctrine" asserting the right to preemptively attack states that support or harbor terrorists and pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has bitterly divided world opinion. Many seemingly long-settled questions of international politics, especially involving the unilateral use of force, have been reopened. Although we are concerned about the implications of the Bush Doctrine, we do not agree that it fundamentally changes world politics as some have asserted. Instead, we argue that the global debate leading up to the war in Iraq signals widespread support for existing international norms. Most states continue to see force as a last resort, properly subject to multilateral control in all but the most urgent cases of imminent self-defense. The nature of American diplomatic maneuverings in the United Nations and the public statements of high-level officials suggest that even the United States continues to recognize the importance of these norms.     

The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

Virtue Unrestrained: Herbert Butterfield and the Problem of American Power

In the late 1950s, the British historian Sir Herbert Butterfield observed that we should not welcome the prospect of even a virtuous hegemon but should seek, rather, a balance of power. He did so because his understanding of history suggested that aspirant hegemons succeed principally in precipitating costly wars against them, while his sense of Christian ethics suggested that even a successful virtuous hegemon would become self-righteous and, by imposing its values on others, would curtail the scope of human freedom. I argue that current United States (U.S.) policy and the world's response to it to date confirm Butterfield's position, but that this presents a new set of practical and moral questions centered on the problem of advocating a balance against a country that one regards as broadly virtuous, and certainly more virtuous than many of the other powers in the world, but that no longer wants to pursue its interests through the post-Cold War concert of putative great powers. The best answer to these problems, I conclude, lies not in a crude balance, but the re-institutionalization of the idea of the balance of power. This requires advocating restraint and self-restraint, the first practical manifestation of which being that the U.S. should not attack either of the surviving members of the "Axis of Evil."     

Motivation and Intervention in the Northern Ireland Peace Process: An Interview with President Bill Clinton

The role of former U.S. President William Jefferson Clinton in the Northern Ireland peace process has been acknowledged as an example of political risk‐taking and leadership driven by political interests and strategic post–Cold War aims. The tendency to examine Clinton's role from the perspective of international and global policy objectives, however, has obscured consideration of his motivational role in the Northern Ireland peace process and of how he moved between encouragement and intervention to help the political parties reach a settlement. This article, which is drawn from an extended interview conducted with Clinton in 2017, seeks to paint a more comprehensive picture of Clinton's participation in the peace process, showing how his combination of motivational and interventional skills enabled him to help convince others of the need to take risks for peace and gave him greater influence and leverage over the peace process as a result.     

特朗普执政以来美国对拉美政策的调整及其影响

在美国的全球战略中,拉美地区历来占据着重要而特殊的位置。长期以来,美国视拉美为自己的“后院”,在拉美拥有独一无二的主导权和影响力。特朗普政府执政后,公开祭出“门罗主义”的旗帜,大幅度调整对拉美的政策,展现出更公开的干涉行径、更浓厚的利己色彩、更明显的分化企图和更强烈的排外取向,意在将拉美打造成一个政治上亲近美国、经贸上依赖美国、安全上不威胁美国的“后院”。短期看,特朗普政府对拉美的政策调整取得了一定的成效,对拉美的掌控有所强化。但长期看,美国和拉美地区之间的深层次矛盾和冲突并未完全纾解,在特定的时空背景下甚至存在进一步被激化的可能性;与此同时,特朗普政府对拉政策的调整还加剧了大国在拉美展开战略博弈的风险。特朗普政府的拉美政策如何进一步演变和发展,美拉关系如何变化,这些课题值得中国学界高度关注并深入研究。     

Domestic politics and interstate disputes: Examining US mid involvement and reciprocation, 1870–1992

Increasingly scholars have become interested in conflict behavior that falls short of war. Chan (1997), for example, has insisted that a concern for less intense engagements is crucial for fully understanding the conflict‐proneness of different regimes. Chan (1997) furthermore noted that scholars have generally failed to account for whether a state was the initiator or target of a dispute. Such a distinction, however, is crucial for discriminating the pacific effects of democratic culture and institutions. In this paper, I investigate the domestic determinants of US MID involvement and reciprocation from 1870 to 1992. I find that politics does not stop at the water's edge. Unlike Gowa (1998) who found no relationship between the use of force and dissatisfaction with the status quo, I uncover an association between US domestic conditions and whether the US was an initiator or target of a MID. Not only is the US more likely to be targeted during periods of domestic political weakness, but Democratic administrations also appear to be challenged to a greater extent than their Republican counterparts. Furthermore, when targeted, the US is much more likely to reciprocate when the initiating state is a non‐democracy suggesting that regime type continues to play an important role in conflict propensity even after a demand has been made.     

Terrorism Analysis and Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project: The Missing Element

ABSTRACT

The decision in the case of Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project raised important issues about civil liberties in the United States (2010), including freedom of speech and freedom of association, in relation to U.S. foreign policy actions. While the decision has the potential to infringe on certain liberties, the decision itself was based on very limited information on the nature of terrorism, the foreign terrorist organizations involved, and the processes by which terrorist groups can be induced to peacefully re-enter domestic political systems. There are also concerns about what can be the arbitrary designation of groups as foreign terrorist organizations. These issues raise serious questions about the role of the Supreme Court in the overall political system and judgments in cases involving terrorism and foreign policy.     

关于越战期间美国老挝政策的国外成果研究综述

冷战初期,老挝本不是美国东南亚政策的重点问题,但随着越南战争的爆发,美国对老挝的重视程度逐步加深,直至派出地面部队进行干涉。这一问题值得深思。国外针对该领域的研究已硕果累累,但国内的相关研究才刚刚起步。对国外相关研究成果的整理和推介,应有助于推动国内学者在该领域的研究取得更新突破。     

特朗普2.0版联盟战略与美国联盟体系的嬗变

联盟体系是美国维系全球霸权的重要支柱,也是美国外交安全政策的基石,这构成了美国联盟的内在连贯性。但美国联盟体系发展又具有周期性规律,具体表现在联盟规模、功能排序、管理方式和盛衰强弱以及由此引发的地区安全结构的变迁上。在特朗普看来,联盟体系在美国霸权护持上作用有限,美国的付出多于收益,由此联盟战略在美国国家安全战略中地位下降。正是在商人“成本—收益”思维下,特朗普对盟友收益补偿的意愿明显不足。新一届特朗普政府的联盟政策可能呈现交易式双边外交与选择性多边主义的结合,且去意识形态化和去制度化色彩浓厚。未来美国联盟内部分歧将会增多,盟友战略自主性增强,联盟体系内部凝聚力趋于下降,联盟功能趋于失调,因而美国军事政治经济一体化联盟体系可能趋于松散化和碎片化,并导致联盟体系网络化进程明显放缓。这些变化虽然意味着全球和地区战略稳定性松动、地区安全结构的稳固性下降,但有助于推动中国所主张的伙伴关系导向的国际秩序影响力超越美国的盟友关系导向的国际秩序,而美国回避新的安全承诺、对盟友“双重再保证”客观上或有利于中美之间的和平竞争。中国应利用美国联盟发展的周期性规律,推动构建稳定的地区秩序,强化周边地区安全,彰显大国责任与担当。     

Decision‐making during international crises: A reexamination

The purpose of this research note is to reexamine the methods and codings of crisis decision‐making processes performed by Herek, Janis, and Huth in 1987, and thereby to discuss the role of the case survey method as a means to build theory in the study of foreign policy. The research reported here uses a somewhat different measure of decision‐making process quality and a slightly expanded list of data sources than were used by Herek and his colleagues. It reevaluates a subset of the cases explored in the previous study. This research note largely confirms the analysis of crisis decision‐making processes presented in the previous study, though it notes and discusses some discrepancies. Furthermore, this reexamination seeks to contribute to our understanding of crisis decision‐making processes by using a different conceptualization of decision‐making process quality and thus a different coding procedure.     

Mapping foreign policy behavior: An assessment and evaluation of events structures

Employing events indices for cooperation and conflict from the COPDAB data set, the graphic structuring process established by Steven Brams, and several alternative methods of quantifying the resulting event digraphs, this paper examines the utility of the graphic structuring process in efforts at explanation and prediction. Arguing that if the graphic structure represents an underlying structural order in the foreign policy behavior of states, predictability should exist between the graphic portrayal and other behavioral structures around it. Despite face validity in the sociometric qualities of the digraph results, little predictive capability was uncovered. The paper explains the testing process, disc asses the test results, and proposes alternative uses for the structural mapping procedure.     

Bush: The Sequel

This article examines the likely foreign policy initiatives of the U.S. under the leadership of George W. Bush. The new president has outlined a fairly thorough critique of America's international behavior in the 1990s. Because a leader's public statements arguably serve to persuade various audiences and to build support for policy change, the article takes Bush's words quite seriously—along with those spoken or written by his closest foreign affairs advisors. Bush intends to abandon the so-called Clinton Doctrine and deploy national missile defenses. He is critical of American policies toward China and Russia, but has not presented bold new initiatives toward those powers. Under the rubric of "compassionate conservatism," Bush may alter U.S. relations toward the Global South in some interesting ways. The president and his advisors often purport to be realists, but the article demonstrates that their own words belie this claim as they often justify policies based on ideals rather than the pursuit of power.     

Looking Beyond the National Level: Foreign Direct Investment Attraction in U.S. States

International relations scholars need to look beyond the national level because U.S. states and governors are increasingly important actors in world politics. One way to look at their international activities is by examining the ways in which U.S. states seek to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), just one research puzzle at the nexus of international relations and U.S. state politics, two fields that rarely talk to one another. After pointing out the gaps within theories from international relations and international political economy, this paper describes the evolving global roles of both U.S. states and governors and shows how U.S. states attract FDI through the use of their international offices and governor-led overseas missions. Empirical findings indicate that U.S. states' international offices and a higher level of economic interdependence help states attract FDI, and the paper argues that extension of institutional approaches from IPE may be valuable for future research about the international capabilities of subnational governments and their leaders.     

Mortgaging Security for Economic Gain: U.S. Arms Policy in an Insecure World

Similar to other consumer sectors of the global economy, the transfer of advanced conventional weapons and military technologies has entered the globalization process, a process that has qualitatively and quantitatively altered the composition and structure of U.S. national security policymaking. By injecting the decisionmaking process governing arms transfers into the global market place, U.S. policy makers must now reconcile maintaining economic competitiveness within the global system without jeopardizing U.S. national security interests. By subordinating national security interests to global economic imperatives, U.S. decisionmakers are at risk of mortgaging the political, societal, and security welfare of its citizenry for profit.     

美国对华政策的基本取向是导致台海危机的根本动因

长期以来,台湾问题一直是影响中美关系正常发展的关键问题之一。然而,美国对华政策的基本取向始终是将台湾视为不享有主权国家之名的独立的“政治实体”。美国为了其亚太战略乃至全球战略利益考虑,不遗余力地为台湾“拓展国际空间”和制造“双重承认”创造有利的外部环境。正是由于美国的支持和纵容,台湾当局在处理两岸关系上,已经逐渐背离了“一个中国”的基本原则,其“台独”的反动嘴脸昭然若揭。     

从1.0到2.0：特朗普政府对华安全战略的延续与政策变化

2024年美国总统大选以第45任总统唐纳德·特朗普的回归落幕。从“特朗普1.0”到“特朗普2.0”的八年间,国际安全环境、中美关系、美国政经态势以及特朗普个人状态等都发生了重大变化。国际安全环境日益严峻并进入历史转折点;中美关系因美方对华战略竞争而陷入历史低谷;美国自身政治与社会持续撕裂且经济状况存在隐忧;美国国内期待“特朗普2.0”明确回应国内诉求;特朗普个人则在偏好商人思维的同时也凸显强势与遗产导向。比较而言,“特朗普2.0”的对华安全战略将突出延续性,将延续拜登政府的相关政策,体现为延续对华战略竞争、推进“拜登+特朗普”复合议程并继续将经贸议题置于对华战略竞争的核心地位。在延续战略之下,“特朗普2.0”的对华政策也有可能呈现出一些变化,表现为对外事务聚焦于俄乌冲突和巴以冲突而非中国、经贸作为个人偏好成为主线后的不可控性、国际与国内两个维度对其经贸政策制造的更大压力以及陷入历史低谷的中美关系面对新“特朗普冲击”的自限性。     

试论美国对苏维埃俄国的武装干涉

十月革命胜利后，美国参与了协约国对苏维埃俄国的武装干涉，并试图借此机会推翻苏维埃政权。由于美国的干涉遭到国内外民众的反对；参与干涉的各国，特剐是美日存在明显的矛盾；俄国反布尔什维克派别自身的腐败；俄国广大民众的英勇抵抗等因素，美国和协约国的武装干涉最终以失败告终。