蒙古国“多支点”外交战略与大国关系

前苏联解体和冷战结束后 ,地处中俄之间的蒙古国放弃了长期奉行的“一边倒”外交政策 ,制定了均衡发展与中俄两大邻国关系。同时 ,发展与美日等西方大国关系以及立足亚太地区的“多支点”外交战略。目前 ,蒙古国与南北两个邻国建立了蒙中睦邻互信伙伴关系和蒙俄睦邻传统伙伴关系 ,与美国发展战略伙伴关系 ,与日本确立了综合性伙伴关系。蒙古积极发展与大国的均衡关系 ,其意义在于 ,保障国家的独立、安全和未来发展 ,扩大自身活动空间 ,提高其国际地位 ,而且利用与大国的均势平衡使其相互牵制 ,以便从中获取更多利益。     

世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

新现实主义视野下的东亚地区主义发展路径

作为主流的国际关系理论,新现实主义也被运用于地区层面,成为很多国内外学者阐释东亚地区主义的主要理论范式之一。在新现实主义者看来,东亚国家对于均势体系或结构的追逐由来已久,无论是东盟的成立,大国平衡战略的实践,还是由于中国崛起而引发的"中国威胁论"以及中日之间的矛盾和竞争等都彰显了东亚地区结构的不断变动,显示出东亚地区国家间追逐权力平衡的过程。     

Toward an effective international legal order: from coexistence to concert?

In forbidding the use of force except in self‐defence against armed attack or when authorised by the Security Council, the UN Charter appears to be the culminating development of a system of international order based on the doctrine of state sovereignty. The cumulative result of international‐law‐related acts, omissions and declarations of the Bush administration since its inception can be construed as a fundamental challenge to the sovereign state system. The administration's stated security strategy is one possible response to undoubtedly grave challenges to national and human security. In fact, only an institutionalised partnership between the US and regional powers such as China, India, Brazil and Germany can hope to address those challenges successfully, in part because only it would have the requisite legitimacy. That partnership or concert could be organised within the UN framework, albeit intensifying its hierarchical elements.     

二战后中日结盟观比较研究——以中苏同盟、日美同盟为例

战后中日结盟观存在差异。从结盟功能来看,中国谋求的是生存与安全;日本谋求的是从生存、安全到对外权力的增加、对国际秩序的影响。从结盟对象来看,中国的结盟对象包括强国和相对弱势的国家;日本的结盟对象集中在强国。从同盟地位与同盟管理来看,中国强调地位及管理的平等,而日本对这方面的不平等往往持容忍的态度。从结盟基础来看,中国从以面临共同威胁而产生的共同安全利益以及意识形态划界,到淡化、放弃意识形态划界。日本则从以面临共同威胁而产生的共同安全利益以及意识形态划界,到淡化意识形态,再到一度逐渐强化意识形态划界。从结盟影响来看,中国经历了结盟利于和平到不利于和平的观念转变,日本则以结盟利于和平的观念为主。     

日本退出国际联盟的“法理”思辨

1933年日本退出国际联盟,原因概在于西方列强于伪满洲国的承认问题上投了反对票。日本的这一举动,无疑是对国际组织的强有力冲击。简言之,在日本侵略野心急剧膨胀的时段,国际联盟约束力的缺失与公法强制力的丧失,使得日本巧妙利用公法为一己之私服务,给今天的学界留下了耐人寻味的思考。     

J. R. Winkler,Nexus. Strategic Communications and American Security in World War I

Microstates are unique participants in the international arena. Many of the world's microstates are located in the Pacific basin and are characterized by limited natural and human resources. Because they are so small and isolated, the Pacific microstates are frequently overlooked diplomatically in the larger, international system. Conversely, diplomacy is often their only effective instrument of statecraft for making an impact within the international system on issues critical to their national interests.

In contrast to the belief that the microstates are mere pawns in international relations, this text will view the Pacific microstates as active participants in diplomacy by exploring their involvement in two broad strands of Pacific Rim diplomacy: ? The political struggle between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan for influence in the Pacific region, diplomatic recognition, and support in the United Nations and other international agencies.

? Fishing issues between Japan, the microstates, and other regional powers as illustrated within the International Whaling Commission.

The article will show that reciprocity is the key concept and mechanism governing their diplomatic arrangements with Taiwan and Japan. The conclusion suggests two ideas for these microstates in dealing with their larger neighbors on the above issues, and summarizes their active, rather than passive, diplomatic role in Pacific Rim international relations.     

试析中国-日本-东盟战略互动关系

中国、日本与东盟是目前东亚地区权力结构中的三大主导力量，它们之间的关系在很大程度上制约和决定着东亚国际关系格局的基本走向。本文主要借鉴国际政治研究中的三角关系分析方法，分析当前中国-日本-东盟三角关系的特征与发展趋势。     

在华印支难民与国际合作:一种历史的分析与思考

在华印支难民既是国际印支难民的重要组成部分,也有其自身特殊性。他们主要是中国与越南关系恶化之后越南反华排华的结果,中国政府一开始是以难侨来对待他们,1979年之后才主要从难民的角度进行处理。中国与国际社会在印支难民问题上积极合作,包括与联合国难民署的友好合作,以及与日本、澳大利亚和老挝等国家在印支难民外流、自愿遣返等问题上的双边合作。这些历史经验为近年来关于中国难民立法与政策的相关争论提供一些有意义的思考。     

从政治层面看演变中的中俄关系

20世纪80年代末90年代初苏联解体、冷战结束后,国际形势发生了新的变化。大国关系也处于全新的构筑之中。其显著的标志是美、俄、中、日、欧盟世界五大力量的相互关系带有根本性的调整。在这种国际环境背景下．中俄两国关系在以往中苏关系的基础上继续发展。逐步确立了中俄两国的战略协作伙伴关系。冷战后的两国关系呈现出三大特点两国关系稳定迅速发展;政治关系重于经济关系;变与不变同时存在。对于中俄关系。在发展趋势上我们要在努力争取长期稳定的睦邻友好合作关系的同时．关注两国关系中的不稳定因素,做到有备无患、未雨绸缪、趋利避害。     

从马来西亚与日本的关系变化看冷战后东亚格局的演变

冷战后,东亚地区的国际格局发生了重大的变化,大国关系处于历史性调整时期。东盟在亚太地区的影响日益上升,并逐渐成为塑造东亚格局的重要一极。中国的崛起和日本实力的相对下降深刻地改变了东亚地区的国际关系。本文通过分析马来西亚和日本的关系演变,管窥冷战后东亚格局的演变。     

American foreign policy: A look ahead

The author reviews recent foreign policy achievements of the U.S. government. Relations with PRC and USSR are seen as having set the stage for further lessening of hostilities. The strong centres of power emerging in Europe and Japan are seen as requiring new frameworks for increasing cooperation, particularly in the areas of military deterrence vis‐à‐vis adversarial power centers and in the establishment of new and more equitable monetary and trading relationships. Relations with Third World countries are discussed. A large thrust of American foreign policy in the coming years is seen as devoted to the creation of a stable international system which is less dependent on the contribution of the United States.     

Reaction to two perspectives,the present and the future

The author agrees with Alastair Buchan's position that the bipolarity of the two super powers is declining, but disagrees that relations between the United States and the USSR are stabilizing. The future of the international system is seen as determined by exponential growth in (1) the arms race, (2) economic development which is necessarily founded on a limited resource base, and (3) population. The only hope for stability in the world is seen as decreased nationalism, equalization of wealth among the peoples of the world, disarmament, and world government. Without these changes of direction, the predictions of the Limits of Growth are seen as all too likely to materialize.     

陆国忠文英译文

Ever since Sept. 11 events, international situation has undergone remarkable changes. Not only has the United States made major readjustments to its security strategy and foreign policy, but major powers in the world have also adjusted their foreign and security policies in order to adapt to the new development in international situation. In its effort to fight terrorism, the U.S. has to rely heavily on its allies, and in Asia it attaches much importance to the role Japan can play while the latter has given active support to the former in that war. The greater intimacy of the Japan- US relations has become even more outstanding in the recent interrelations of major powers in the Asia- Pacific region. This development and its effect on the international situation deserve to be reckoned with.     

第二次世界大战结束前日俄、日苏关系的特点

第二次世界大战前的日俄、日苏关系是影响东亚地区国际关系格局的重要双边关系。在日本明治维新以前日俄关系具有西方殖民列强与亚洲闭关锁国的封建国家之间关系的特点，总体态势是“俄攻日守”。明治维新到十月革命前的日俄关系具有老牌的殖民主义列强与新兴殖民主义列强之间关系的特点，日俄在东亚既有争夺，又有合作，日本逐渐占了上风。十月革命后日苏关系既有社会主义国家和帝国主义国家之间的关系、邻国关系的特点，又有较为浓厚的欧洲国家和亚洲国家之间关系的特点。这时期，两国之间始终未能建立真正的信赖关系，经历了“日攻苏守”到“苏攻日守”的转变过程。     

19世纪东北亚国际关系刍议

19世纪是东北亚国际关系的形成时期,该世纪下半叶,中、日、俄三国间的传统关系发生巨变,朝鲜成为列强争夺的焦点并首次提出三八线问题。由于欧美列强的强行介入,延续了几个世纪的华夷朝贡体系终结,东北亚国际关系由两国间的双边关系演变为多国互动和相互制衡,典型的近代国际关系形成。     

The emerging international system: Policy implications

The foreign policy‐making of individual nations is seen as greatly affected by the international system, whether the actors are aware of it or not. A bipolar system is seen as requiring centralization of decision‐making authority within the two great powers which define the system. Under the emerging system of “polyarchical multipolarity,” military power will remain bipolar but will no longer determine the form of other international activities. The economic system has already been decoupled from the military system. With intelligent planning, the same could be done with the energy system. The centralization of decision‐making authority is no longer adaptive under these conditions, for the complexity of the global situation cannot be handled by a limited number of people. Decentralization of decision‐making would make it possible to implement policies based on analysis and planning rather than a perceived need for immediate action.     

转型中的国际体系：中国与各主要力量的关系

国际体系正在加速转型,其主要标志是:中国和平崛起、9·11后的反恐战争、一种新的超越意识形态及战略竞争的大国双边合作关系正在全球范围内成型.但目前的国际体系仍然是西方盟国掌握主导权,在双边同盟和八国集团与中国之间有一条或明或暗的战略分界线.中国与西方大国既有广泛的合作;又有各种分歧和战略性的竞争.东亚区内多层次、多形式的多边和双边合作在加强,新的地区秩序正逐步显现,中国的繁荣与富强依赖于构建良好的周边关系.     

新世纪印日关系迅猛发展的原因剖析

地缘环境、大国关系和经济需求是新世纪前影响印日关系发展的主要因素。新世纪印日关系发展的影响因素包括经济、政治、海洋安全和大国关系四个方面。除了经济发展模式的互补性外,新世纪两国之间有了新的经济价值和吸引力。共同谋求联合国安理会常任理事国的席位和共同的西方民主价值观是两国靠近的政治动因,但其影响力在印日之间存在根本差别。在海上能源安全和航道方面两国需要相互借重,但有三点需要中国特别注意。美国是印日关系的密切的推动者,但其对印日的影响力是不同的。中国在客观上是印日关系发展的重要影响因素,可以从内外两个层面发挥积极的作用。     

区域主义视阈下的日本对华外交（英文）

Amid the challenges of a changing international order and driven by a traditional geopolitical mindset, Japan has proposed its Indo-Pacific vision as a framework for regional order. Japan intends to forge a multi-level security system targeting China, while building a multilateral institutional framework economically for compatible competition with China. China should be aware of Japan's strategic intent while strengthening communication and coordination with Japan to manage the bilateral relations on the basis of mutual respect and seeking common ground.