Parties,political decay,and democratic regression in Sri Lanka

Among states that gained independence following World War II, Sri Lanka was widely considered to have a good chance of succeeding democratically. This promise was sundered when successive leaders embraced ethnocentric policies that were geared towards empowering the majority Sinhalese Buddhists at the expense of minorities. This ethnocentrism contributed to civil war and adversely affected the country's institutions – including the island's political parties. The attendant political decay has not only led to malgovernance and democratic regression, it has pushed the country in an authoritarian direction. Sri Lanka thus represents a classic case of how ethnocentrism can undermine democratic institutions and of the long-term negative consequences.     

90年代菲律宾政党的变化及其特点

步入九十年代 ,菲律宾政治渐趋稳定 ,但政党活动十分活跃。一些在全国影响较大的政党面对新的情况 ,进行了力量整合 ,政纲调整 ,也进行了新的权力角逐 ,在政治发展中留下了鲜明的印迹。随着政治和经济格局的变化 ,菲政党政治也呈现出新的特点 ,这是菲律宾政治中值得注意的新趋向。     

Hidden in plain sight: political opposition and hegemonic authoritarianism in Azerbaijan

This paper examines the consolidation and maintenance of hegemonic authoritarianism in post-Soviet Azerbaijan. Hegemonic regimes are characterized by their nearly total lack of political competition. Despite the presence of opposition parties and regular elections, the incumbent in these cases is reelected with 70% or more of the vote. What does it take to sustain overwhelming margins of victory in regular elections in the face of institutionalized opposition? Previous studies have suggested that either violent repression or institutionalized co-optation of opposition groups is central to securing long-term hegemonic regime stability. These mechanisms explain how rulers forestall potential opposition. Upon coming to power in 1993, however, Heydar Aliyev – like many post-Soviet leaders – inherited a genuine, existing opposition in the Popular Front movement. I suggest that in the presence of an intractable opposition, Azerbaijan's rulers have taken a different approach with regard to regime maintenance. Drawing on over 50 original interviews conducted during 6 months of field research, I identify the mechanisms by which the government has “hidden the opposition in plain sight” by making it effectively difficult for existing opposition groups to function as credible political parties. Since the mid-1990s, the Aliyev regime has used informal measures to prevent these groups from aggregating and articulating the diverse interests present in society from visibly competing in elections and from serving effectively in government to craft and implement policy. These practices have rendered the opposition technically legal, but completely ineffective. Besides weakening the opposition, these measures produce a series of mutually reinforcing effects – including noncompetitive elections by default and a politically disengaged society – that sustain long-term regime stability. The paper concludes by examining this argument in comparative perspective. Hegemonic regimes have proliferated in the post-Soviet region, and I suggest that this strategy is an important factor in sustaining many of these regimes.     

The territorial genealogies of Russia's political parties and the transferability of political machines

This article uses statistical analysis of aggregate electoral returns in order to establish continuities in the territorial patterns of support between four major political parties of contemporary Russia, on the one hand, and those parties that contested national legislative (Duma) elections from 1993 through 2007, on the other hand. It is hypothesized that such continuities, dubbed “territorial genealogies,” are largely rooted in the migration of region-based gubernatorial political machines from one national party to another, which constitutes a major flow of organizational continuity in the development of political parties. Statistical analysis confirms that the main hubs of machine politics in Russia's regions, originating from the intra-elite struggles of the 1990s, provide United Russia with the territorial core of its current support. Other political parties retain electoral salience in those regions where their electoral appeal is not mitigated by the presence of political machines, which underscores the importance of non-machine party organization for their electoral destinies.     

Women candidates and party nomination trends in India – evidence from the 2009 general election

More women MPs than ever before were elected to the lower house of the national parliament of India in the 2009 general election. Yet, the increase in women's presence in the Lok Sabha cannot necessarily be attributed to the increased willingness of political parties to field more women candidates, despite rhetorical party political support for increasing women's participation in political institutions. This article analyses party political nomination of women as candidates in the 2009 election, and finds significant variations in levels of nomination across parties and across India's states. The article also examines in detail the nomination of female candidates by the two largest political parties, the Indian National Congress party and the Bharatiya Janata Party, both of which support proposals for introducing reserved seats for women in national and state legislatures. The findings reject the proposition that parties only nominate women in unwinnable seats, but finds support for the proposition that parties are risk averse when it comes to nominating women, and that this can restrict the number of women nominated for election. The article concludes with some further questions for future research on gender and political recruitment in India.     

The power of proximity: A concept of political party strategies applied to Burkina Faso

Recent publications suggest that exclusively ethno-regional parties are as rare in sub-Saharan Africa as elsewhere. At the same time, the idea that ethnicity is a very special feature of African party politics persists. This article acknowledges the general relevance of ethnicity in party competition but emphasises the level at which it becomes important. It develops a micro-behavioural approach that pays particular attention to the strategic choices of party elites in order to supplement the dominant structuralist thinking in party research on Africa. An in-depth evaluation of detailed election data from Burkina Faso shows strategies that rely on personal proximity between the voter and the candidates influence the parties' success to a great extent. Parties maximise their chances of winning seats if they concentrate their limited resources on the home localities of leading party members. Hence, African party politics are less dependent on ethnic demography than is often implied but more open to change through elite behaviour.     

Argentina's Landmark 2003 Presidential Election: Renewal and Continuity

This article provides an analysis of the political and socioeconomic context of the April 2003 presidential elections, focusing particularly on the campaign platforms of candidates, the outcome of the first round and the election's consequences for the party system. The election's results were far reaching in many respects. Argentina's longstanding two-party system came to an end with the virtual vanishing of the Radical party (UCR) at the national level. An evolved political culture resulted in new, more rigorous criteria for the selection of candidates. Finally, new political parties (MNR and ARI) emerged that could conceivably improve the quality of democratic governance in the future. In short, the 2001–2002 crisis fostered a significant degree of political renewal. Contrary to some predictions, however, the societal rejection of political parties did not result in either the complete demolition of the party system or the wholesale renovation of the political class. In particular, the Peronist party showcased its staying power and uncanny ability to adapt to new political environments.     

The rise and decline of the new party: Ideology, resources and the political opportunity structure

This paper analyses the growth and decline of Taiwan's first significant third party, the New Party (NP). The NP won numerous seats in the national parliaments in the mid-1990s and received extensive media attention. However, it has shown a steady electoral decline since the late 1990s. Despite its poor recent election performance, the NP should not be regarded as a failure, as it has actually been remarkably successful at achieving its original objectives. By 2004, the KMT's policy positions had become so close to those of the NP that the NP was prepared to promote a party merger and allow its politicians to stand for election under a KMT banner. I challenge the most common explanation that the NP rose when united and fell when divided by bitter factional struggles. Instead a framework incorporating ideology, resources and political opportunity structure is employed to explain the rise and fall of the NP. I argue that when the NP faced a benign political environment in the mid-1990s, its moderate political message and rich human resources enabled the party to grow rapidly. However, after March 1996, the political environment became progressively more hostile, and as the NP's resources were eroded and wasted and the party moved towards a narrow and extremist political project, the party began its terminal decline. The space for the NP became even more limited after 2000, when party had to face intense competition from a powerful new KMT splinter party, the PFP, and a rejuvenated, united and orthodox KMT.     

A Question of Priorities: Candidate Selection in Estonian Political Parties

This article addresses political-party organization in Estonia, especially candidate selection. Its first objective is to describe the ways in which the main parties chose their candidates before the 2011 parliamentary election. A second objective is to evaluate those procedures in light of expectations generated by established theory. The focus is on two conditions: the institutional framework, particularly the electoral system, and the relative youth of Estonian democracy. The evidence confirms these expectations only partially, which suggests that an individual party’s ideological, organizational and strategic circumstances, in addition to structural and institutional conditions, are critical to understanding why it performs this basic function as it does.     

从《东南亚集体防务条约》看美国的南中国海政策

1954年以美国为首签署的<东南亚集体防务条约>正式把南中国海纳入美国的防御圈内;此前,南中国海位于美国在西太平洋的防线之外.之后,该条约多次被试图援引,用以对付所谓的"共产主义",实指中国在南中国海的活动.纵观20世纪50、60年代,在遏制共产主义的战略下,美国不仅试图否认中国对南中国海岛礁的主权,还坚决反对中国在南中国海采取任何行动,但放任台湾当局、菲律宾和南越等冷战盟友在南中国海的活动.     

Local elections and democracy in Indonesia: The Riau Archipelago

This essay examines the dynamics and outcomes of Indonesia's first-ever direct local executive elections in a case study of the gubernatorial election in the Riau Archipelago. Specifically, the essay examines the election process, identifies the major issues before, during and after the elections, and assesses voters' participation. The essay then examines the ways direct local executive elections have affected the dynamics of local politics in the country. Overall, this essay aims to further develop our understanding of political dynamics in the Riau Archipelago and grasp the practical significance of local political change in Indonesia more broadly.     

Dying to win: Elections,political violence,and institutional decay in Kenya

This paper examines the lessons learned from Kenya's 2007 post election violence and what has happened since then. It notes that the root causes of the violence still persist, have not been addressed, and easily could be reignited. Faced with a situation where institutions and the rule of law have been weakened deliberately and where diffused violence is widespread, both Kenya's transition to democracy and the fate of the nation remain vulnerable. The argument here is that the problems faced in holding and managing elections in conflict situations often are not simply technical. Instead, in Kenya and elsewhere, many difficulties are symptomatic of larger political and institutional questions related to democratic change that are more difficult to analyze in causal terms or to address.     

冷战初期日本南海政策及东南亚战略取向

冷战使日本在美国的全球战略中作用提升,成为反共"防波堤",其具有政治目的性的东南亚"经济外交"呈现出明显的海洋战略取向,且影响至今。因地缘利益、东南亚战略,日本南海政策的基本出发点自冷战开始后始终没变,即追随美国遏制中国政策,对南海诸岛归属问题上采取模糊态度和立场,这为后来南海周边某些国家侵占南海岛礁留下所谓借口。此时日本还曾插足于南海诸岛,由于海峡两岸对南海权益的维护使其非法行为无法为继,但随着经济的发展,日本越来越依赖南海航道和加大南海石油资源的开发,这决定其"关心"南海问题就是势所必然了。     

Laissez-faire versus Strict Control of Political Finance: Hegemonic Parties and Developmental States in Malaysia and Singapore

ABSTRACT

This article compares the financing of political parties and candidates in two Southeast Asian countries. In Malaysia, some political finance regulations exist only on paper, and political financing is for the most part not restrained at all. In contrast, the financing of candidates and parties has always been tightly circumscribed in Singapore. These different strategies, “laissez-faire” versus “strict control,” are the consequence of various factors. In Malaysia, the New Economic Policy has effected a close, often economically unproductive linkage between the state, the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, and business. The rise of businesspeople has resulted in the commercialization of competition within (the United Malays National Organisation. Additionally, increasing competition between the ruling coalition and the opposition has resulted in growing expenditures for electioneering in the form of advertisements and electoral patronage. The laissez-faire style of regulation has been compounded by the difficult-to-control practices in East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak), where vote buying, electoral patronage based on the largesse of oligarchs, and obvious nonobservance of the rules have been typical. In contrast to Malaysia as a whole, the costs for parties and candidates are still relatively low in Singapore. As a cadre party, the PAP (People's Action Party) is relatively autonomous from private business interests, and intraparty competition is not commercialized; the developmentalist state is highly productive, and the ties between the state, the PAP, and business are not characterized by cronyism. Moreover, electioneering is not very commercialized because the opposition is still relatively weak.     

The idiosyncratic dynamics of party system nationalization in Russia

This article uses data from the 1993–2011 national legislative elections in Russia in order to systematically measure and explain the dynamics of party system nationalization. The analysis registers a salient discrepancy between the extremely low levels of territorial homogeneity of the vote in the single-member plurality section of Russia's electoral system (1993–2003), on the one hand, and very high levels of party nationalization in party-list contests, on the other. This discrepancy, facilitated by such factors as the legacies of regime transition, federalism, and presidentialism, was reinforced by the integration of gubernatorial political machines into the nationwide political order, which ultimately resulted in unprecedentedly high levels of party nationalization in the 2007–2011 elections. The findings challenge a conventional theory that equates the formation of national electorates to the progressive process of party system consolidation, suggesting that under certain conditions, related but not reducible to the authoritarian perversion of the structure of electoral incentives, there is no such linear relationship.     

Nothing personal: explaining the rise and decline of political machines in Ukraine

This article is the first to explore and compare the dynamics of party-building between the three main political forces that competed for power during the last decade in Ukraine – Viktor Yushchenko's Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine), Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), and Viktor Yanukovych's Partiya Rehioniv (Party of Regions). We show that their political trajectories can be explained by differences in their organizational structure and distribution of resources within the party's leadership. When a party depends on resources linked primarily to one individual, it will develop a personalized decision-making structure advantaging its leader, and the party's fortunes will be tied to the popularity (or lack of same) of the leader. By contrast, when a party relies equally on resources from several groups, a more consociational style of decision-making is likely to emerge. Using Ukraine as a case study, the article shows that personality-led parties will be more vulnerable to defections and less capable of absorbing potential competitors. On the other hand, coalition-led parties are better capable of surviving defeats, maintaining internal cohesion, and merging with like-minded parties.     

多边主义与东亚高政治合作

中国在国际关系中积极倡导多边主义,充分体现了中国外交与时俱进的精神和当代中国外交文化的先进性内涵.推动东亚政治合作是面向21世纪中国奉行多边主义外交战略的重要步骤,它事关东亚能否崛起为世界重要一极.中国在东亚的多边主义战略目标是构建一个和谐的东亚政治经济和安全环境.由于传统和历史的原因,东亚国家一直比较重视在"低政治"领域展开合作,但对"高政治"领域的合作却畏首畏尾,显得比较缓慢和迟钝.其实,东亚国家在战后初期就存在着大国主导"高政治"领域合作的空间.东亚虽然是世界主要的文明发祥地、战后各主要国家也先后实现了经济的起飞,但是政治上的作用却未能很好发挥出来.相反,东亚却成为霸权主义和强权政治轻易得手和随意操纵的地方,特别是由于政治合作意愿淡薄,直接导致了东亚大国政治上的分散化和政治问题的频繁发生,进而也威胁到经济社会发展领域,中日关系就是一个突出的例子.解决朝核问题的多边主义模式应该机制化,这是东亚"高政治"合作的重要起点,而中国应该成为该机制化过程中的主导力量.     

朴槿惠时代的韩国东北亚政策分析

朴槿惠作为韩国历史上首位女总统杂的外交棋局。在韩国的外交重心东北亚地区,韩系、韩朝关系均面临两难选择。面对这样的态势,,接手的是一副异常错综复美关系、韩日关系、韩中关朴槿惠如何“破局”问题的关键。本文回顾了韩国在东北亚地区的基本外交战略。分析了韩北亚地区面临的外交困境,在此基础上根据朴槿惠在各种场合的言论,韩国在未来五年的外交政策走向。就成为国在东分析了     

科伦坡计划及其对战后东南亚的经济发展援助

科伦坡计划是世界上第一批援助计划之一,它在20世纪50年代由英联邦国家发起,旨在通过以资金和技术援助、教育及培训计划等形式的国际合作,来加强南亚和东南亚地区的社会经济发展。科伦坡计划有着广泛的政治和战略意义,不能仅从人道主义角度来理解。它与英美的冷战计划结合起来,成为扩大西方影响的重要工具。     

Limited Pluralism in a Liberal Democracy: Party Law and Political Incorporation in South Korea

ABSTRACT

Formal modes of political incorporation in South Korea rest on a foundation of limited pluralism. The notion that the state should impose rigid boundaries on political representation pervades the country’s democracy. This notion is enshrined in law – in particular in the constitution’s Article 8 and in the Political Parties Act – and is upheld and perpetuated by the judiciary, the election commission, and the parties that dominate representative institutions. Labour is particularly disadvantaged by the limited pluralism contained in party laws. The role of party law in shaping modes of political incorporation is frequently overlooked. This account of party law in South Korea echoes this issue’s attention to the quiet ways that the state in Asia has silenced or ignored particular groups while maintaining the formal institutions of electoral democracy. In this case, the effect is to facilitate a rightward drift by the state as left-leaning actors face greater challenges in contesting elections.