Elites' and Voters' Attitudes towards Austerity Policies and their Consequences in Greece and Portugal

This article analyses the attitudes of the political elite and voters in Greece and Portugal vis-à-vis the Troika bailouts, austerity policies and the attribution of responsibilities for the crisis. Using both elite and mass surveys with similar questions, the article explores to what extent the elites and voters share similar attitudes, what might explain possible differences between these two groups and between the two countries and what this information can tell us about the quality of political representation in Greece and Portugal. The differences between the countries are explained mainly by the severity of the crisis and austerity policies in each country, but also by the diversity of political conditions.     

The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Ideological Space in Portugal and Greece: A Comparison of Elites and Voters

This work addresses the dimensions and content of ideological space in Portugal and Greece after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis and the imposition of austerity policies in the two countries. By examining both elite interviews and public opinion data, the article principally attempts to determine whether the economic crisis has created a new division in ideological space by cross-cutting or completely replacing older ones. In addition, we attempt to gauge the position of crisis-related issues relative to issue divides on European integration and globalisation which, up to now, have been dormant in Southern European countries.     

Political Representation in Bailed-out Southern Europe: Greece and Portugal Compared

The emergence of the economic and financial crisis has already shown important electoral and political consequences in southern Europe. Drawing on the experience of two bailed-out countries, Greece and Portugal, we use original data collected before and after 2008 to examine how patterns of political representation have changed during this period. We argue that austerity measures have significantly affected the way MPs represent their electorates, namely in terms of policy congruence. In addition, the economic crisis has also deepened the legitimacy crisis in both countries. Finally, we find that the short-term impact of the crisis has had a greater impact on voters' attitudes than on those of their representatives.     

Support for Democracy in Times of Crisis: Diffuse and Specific Regime Support in Portugal and Greece

In the context of a cross-national economic crisis, questions about democratic legitimacy are again topical. We explore the question of democratic legitimacy in Portugal and Greece by employing the conceptual differentiation between diffuse and specific regime support. Our findings indicate that while specific support has fallen in both countries, only Greece has experienced a precipitous fall in diffuse support, suggesting a link between regime performance and support for democracy. Individual-level analyses do not reveal any clear patterns concerning the impact of long-term societal factors or short-term economic considerations. Due to data quality limitations the paper has a predominately exploratory nature.     

The Distributional Impact of Austerity and the Recession in Southern Europe

Southern European welfare states are under stress. On the one hand, the recession has been causing unemployment to rise and incomes to fall. On the other hand, austerity has affected the capacity of welfare states to protect those affected. This paper assesses the distributional implications of the crisis in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal from 2009 to 2013. Using a microsimulation model, we disentangle the first-order effects of tax–benefit policies from the broader effects of the crisis, and estimate how its burden has been shared across income groups. We conclude by discussing the methodological pitfalls and policy implications of our research.     

Voting for Movement Parties in Southern Europe: The Role of Protest and Digital Information

In recent years ‘movement parties’ such as Syriza in Greece, the Movimento 5 Stelle in Italy, Podemos in Spain and—to a lesser extent—Bloco de Esquerda in Portugal shook national party systems, breaking the consolidated dynamics of political competition. Despite growing interest in movement parties, there has been scant attention to the role of citizens adopting unconventional forms of action and using digital media in accounting for their electoral performance. To fill this gap, four original internet-based post-electoral surveys are employed showing that protesters and digital media users are more likely to vote for these parties, despite important country differences.     

Can the Welfare State as We Know It Survive? A View from the Crisis-Ridden South European Periphery

South European countries have been hit hardest and longest by the post-2008 economic crisis. This has brought their welfare states under acute strain. Unmet need has sharply increased while significant welfare reforms and (more or less) deep cuts and changes in social spending have been prominent in the repertoire of the crisis management solutions implemented by the governments (under European Union constraints and the strict rescue-deal requirements for Greece and Portugal). This introduction briefly reviews reform trends prior to and during the crisis in order to highlight convergent and divergent paths among the four countries and outline the major questions addressed by the contributions to this volume.     

Welfare Performance in Southern Europe: Employment Crisis and Poverty Risk

The Great Recession has had a deep impact on employment levels and on income inequality in the Southern European countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy). It has given rise to a new stage in the discussion on the distinctiveness of a possible ‘Mediterranean’ variant of welfare capitalism. This paper analyses the performance of the Mediterranean cluster during the Great Recession period in its two main dimensions, labour market participation and poverty risk, and to what extent that performance has evolved in a divergent or convergent manner. Firstly, it portrays the main changes in this variant of welfare capitalism during the last two decades. The second and third sections, respectively, provide a comparative profile of the employment crisis suffered by these countries and of its impact on poverty risks. Finally, the main institutional traits are discussed, explaining the relative performance of welfare capitalism in this cluster of countries.     

Southern Europe and the Eurozone Crisis Negotiations: Preference Formation and Contested Issues

South European countries were severely hit by the eurozone crisis. Adopting the theoretical framework of prospect theory, this article conducts an empirical analysis of the interpretation of the situation by the South European political leaders in terms of gains and losses. After discussing the stances of South European countries vis-à-vis a number of contested issues which emerged during the 2010–2013 negotiations, the article goes on to provide a comparative account of the determinants of national preference formation with respect to the eurozone crisis reforms in Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Spain, paying special attention to the relationship between governments and parliaments.     

Piecing Together the ‘Turkish Puzzle’ on Female Labour Force Participation: Comparative Insights from Southern Europe

Southern Europe has seen remarkable turnarounds in female labour force participation (FLFP) over the past four decades. In Turkey, however, scores of women have yet to join the labour force. To address this ‘Turkish puzzle’, we present comparative data on women’s work in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece (SE-4) and Turkey. Through Qualitative Comparative Analysis, we identify the factors behind rising FLFP in Southern Europe to explore the prospects for a steeper rise of FLFP in Turkey. We reveal two causal pathways to rising FLFP: (i) left party rule, or (ii) combinations of higher levels of take-up of early education and care, higher levels of tertiary education among women and larger size of service sector employment.     

Development and Consequences of Referendum Campaigns in Switzerland, 1981-1999

Since the early 1990s, new forms of referendum campaigns have emerged in the Swiss political arena. In this paper, we examine how referendum campaigns have transformed in Switzerland, focusing on a number of features: their intensity, duration and inclusiveness (i.e., the variety of actors involved). These features are assumed to change in the long run in response to societal changes and in the short run as a function of variations in elite support. We further argue that public knowledge of ballot issues depends on the characteristics of campaigns. To formally test our hypotheses, we draw on advertisement campaigns in six major Swiss newspapers in the four weeks preceding each ballot from 1981 to 1999 and develop a structural equation model. We indeed find that the duration of referendum campaigns has increased over time, while their inclusiveness has decreased. Most importantly, we find that pub­lic knowledge is strongly related to the characteristics of campaigns.     

South European Healthcare Systems under Harsh Austerity: A Progress–Regression Mix?

This article addresses the question of whether the economic crisis provides a politically opportune time to drastically curtail public healthcare in South Europe or whether, instead, there are signs of longer-term reform strategies for potentially balancing fiscal targets with the quest for enhanced value and health outcomes, when eventually growth resumes. After a brief examination of the profile of healthcare systems in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain prior to the crisis, we comparatively assess the mix of retrenchment, restructuring and recalibration strategies. The effects of the austerity-driven reforms on current (and expected) health outcomes are also briefly analysed. We conclude with reflections on the future of public healthcare in South Europe.     

Awakening the Sleeping Giant in Greece and Portugal? Elites' and Voters' Attitudes towards EU Integration in Difficult Economic Times

This article explores the extent to which the economic crisis and political responses of the European Union (EU) to austerity policies have contributed to Euroscepticism in Greece and Portugal. We analyse attitudes towards the EU at both voter and elite levels using fresh and innovative data, and by comparing them with data from surveys conducted before the crisis we show assessments of austerity and the bailouts are feeding elite and voter Euroscepticism. In both countries there are signs of a crisis of representation with greater voter–elite incongruence in the representation of EU issues than before the bailout.     

The Commonwealth of Nations and the EU after the ‘Global’ Crisis: Rethinking Post-2015 ‘Global’ Development?

Abstract

The continuing ‘global’ crisis has accelerated divergences between regions, especially between the ‘rising’ global South, the European Union (EU) of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) and Cyprus, which belongs to both the Commonwealth and the EU. This article studies the emerging ‘vertical’ divergences between the EU and the global South, especially around the so-called Economic Partnership Agreements, and the parallel ‘horizontal’ divergences among Anglophone, Francophone (the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie) and Lusophone (the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa) Commonwealths, with their inheritance of emulation and competition. It focuses on the possibilities of enhanced human/citizen security to propose an analysis that challenges established perspectives and points towards prospects for Commonwealth ‘schools’ of international relations/development.     

Reassessing South European Pensions after the Crisis: Evidence from Two Decades of Reforms

The article studies pension reforms in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain between 1990 and 2013, focusing on three dimensions of change: multi-pillarisation, institutional harmonisation, and spending trends (cost-containment/expansion). The pension evolution of these countries is reassessed throughout the period of crisis and austerity. All countries encouraged the spread of private pensions and harmonised their fragmented public schemes. Cost containment was massive, putting future adequacy at risk. While international actors, especially the European Union, acquired a stronger role, that of organised labour declined. Spiralling between crisis and austerity, these systems changed and adapted, but still face old and new problems: inequality, risk individualisation, and increasing vulnerability to external shocks.     

Social media and citizen mobilisation in the biometric voter registration (BVR) process in Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT

Considerable research has, in recent years, focused on the utility of social media platforms in political campaigns in both developed and developing countries, but there has not been significant analysis of social media use in voter registration campaigns. In seeking to address this lacuna in the literature, this article examines the use and efficacy of social media networking sites (SNS), namely Facebook and Twitter, in mobilising, informing and educating citizens to participate in a new system of biometric voter registration implemented in Zimbabwe. The article draws on a qualitative research methodology. The article contends that social media use amplified political knowledge of the Zimbabwean electorate ahead of the 2018 national election as exemplified in the upsurge of voter registrants under the biometric voter registration system.     

Conductive Activism: Anti-Sweatshop Campaigns across Hong Kong and Mainland China

This study looks at trans-border, anti-sweatshop campaigns and the transformation of cross-border activism between Hong Kong and mainland China. Examining two cases, it demonstrates the mechanism and processes of trans-border, anti-sweatshop campaigns and networks involving non-governmental agencies, student groups and workers. The study suggests that anti-sweatshop activism has been conductive and transferrable from Hong Kong to China in a way that has mobilised local civil society power, cultivated mainland activists and nurtured localised pro-labour activism. With Hong Kong activists acting as movement conveyers and mainland activists acting as adapters, anti-sweatshop activism has evolved. Once centred on marketplaces and consumers, it is now centred on production sites, and has moved domestic actors (including workers, students, scholars, media and consumers) from the margins to the centre. Anti-sweatshop activism has moulded itself to local contexts by rebuilding its strategies and tactics while coalescing with overseas networks to integrate strengths across the Hong Kong-Chinese border. Although the anti-sweatshop movement in China has its weaknesses, its evolution has the potential to gradually alter the power asymmetries between domestic and overseas activists.     

Violent Uprooting and Forced Migration: A Demographic Analysis of the Greek Populations of AsiaMinor,Pontus and Eastern Thrace

This article systematically examines the historical demography of Greek refugees from Asia Minor, Pontus and Eastern Thrace from the beginning of the 1910s until the aftermath of the signing of the Convention of Lausanne and even later until 1928 when the first general census after the Asia Minor Disaster of 1922 took place in Greece. In this context, the article focuses firstly on a comparative examination of the available sources concerning the number of Greeks living in Asia Minor, Pontus and Eastern Thrace before the outbreak of the First World War, and secondly on the number of refugees pouring into Greece before and after the Asia Minor Disaster of 1922. It is argued that the Greeks of Asia Minor and Pontus suffered numerous losses because of the persecution by the Turkish authorities and because of their violent uprooting from their homelands. On the other hand, it is argued that the Greek population of Eastern Thrace was in general much less affected by the Turkish atrocities despite the fact that even this population was obliged to seek refuge in Greece after 1922.     

Political mistrust in southern Europe since the Great Recession

The political effects of the Great Recession on southern Europe were substantial. The rapid economic deterioration of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain from 2008 onwards was accompanied by an increase in citizens’ dissatisfaction towards national political institutions. The sources of political mistrust in the southern periphery were of a political and economic nature. Using quantitative data from EU member states from 2000 to 2015, this paper evaluates the suitability of competing theories in explaining this shift in political attitudes in southern European countries. It first hypothesizes that political mistrust is explained by citizens’ rationalist evaluations of changing macroeconomic performance. It also hypothesizes that political mistrust changes according to institutional performance. The paper argues that economic crises act as an external shock that places politics, politicians and institutions in the spotlight as a result of citizens’ deteriorating performance of the economy. The findings suggest that unemployment, public debt and political corruption are key variables in understanding short-term changes in political mistrust.     

Representation and Austerity Politics: Attitudes of Greek Voters and Elites Compared

Drawing on surveys of voters and MPs in Greece, this article analyses elite–mass interaction on key policy (austerity, European integration, immigration) and ideological issues after the 2012 elections. We find that while for the government parties, New Democracy and PASOK, the level of congruence is quite high, MPs from opposition parties (SYRIZA, Golden Dawn) place themselves in more exposed positions in comparison with their voters. The observed substantial variation in the intensity and direction of congruence, across parties and issue preferences in Greece, reinforces the view that the dimensionality of political contestation is not reducible to a single ideological dimension.