俄罗斯与北约：再度握手背后的较量

如果给当今大国关系的热点排一个序列,恐怕没有比俄罗斯与美国为首的北约之间的“恩怨”更能吸引人们的目光。最近,这对爱恨纠结了半个多世纪的老对手又有了新的举措,并瞬间成了国际政治观察家们津津乐道的话题。     

OSCE and NATO in Kosovo: Embryo of European Security

Richard Holbrooke, the special American envoy to Yugoslavia, negotiated a peace agreement on Kosovo with Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic last fall. He spoke with NPQ editor Nathan Gardels about what it means.     

双东扩:中东欧国家的得与失

自去春以来,北约欧盟先后实施大范围东扩.北约二轮东扩增添7个中东欧新成员,另有3国首轮东扩先行入约,数量达到10个.欧盟东扩有8个中东欧国家加盟,算上2007年将要加入的2国,同样是10个国家.除阿尔巴尼亚及前南4国外,由前社会主义国家演变或分化而来的中东欧国家均开始融入欧洲-大西洋体系.回顾一年来的形势发展,双东扩正使这些国家及相关国际关系发生重大变化.     

论欧盟在联合国中的地位和作用

自20世纪50年代开始的欧洲一体化不仅仅是一个以欧洲大陆为地域范围,对内不断深化和扩展经济与社会整合的进程,也同时是欧洲面向国际社会时独立地位不断加强,影响力不断提升的过程.     

Europol and EU Counterterrorism: International Security Actorness in the External Dimension

This article offers an analysis of Europol's security actorness in the external dimension of EU counterterrorism. While Europol has attracted some scholarly attention, not so much work has focused on the meaning of its international agreements in counterterrorism. This article aims to investigate the international actorness of Europol at the international level in relation to the fight against international terrorism. It offers original conceptual insights based on empirical case studies of international agreements: Europol agreements with U.S. law enforcement, as well as Europol agreements with countries in the European Neighbourhood policy.     

俄罗斯"社会安全"问题探析

苏联解体后 ,俄罗斯政局动荡 ,经济滑坡 ,两极分化严重 ,人民生活水平大幅下降 ,社会紧张局势加剧 ,社会治安状况恶化 ,俄罗斯民众的社会安全感急剧下降 ,社会安全问题成为俄罗斯一个重大而迫切的问题。俄罗斯政府的反危机措施不力 ,尤其是车臣分子的恐怖暴力活动使俄罗斯的社会安全问题更加尖锐和复杂。俄罗斯社会安全问题的尖锐是由苏联解体和从计划经济向市场资本主义经济过渡引起的经济和社会全面变化的自然后果。     

中日韩军事安全合作的困境与出路

特殊的地缘政治关系和历史宿怨等问题,使得中日韩三国军事安全困境并未消除,甚至有所加深。制约中日韩军事安全合作深入发展的最大障碍,既有现实的领土争端问题,也有互信的缺失和国家情感与民族情绪问题,更有美国在东亚的军事同盟所造成的消极影响。而消除中日韩安全困境的途径尽管存在但难度极大,这种状况一定程度上制约了三国间军事安全合作的深入发展。但是,在全球化的背景下,三国也的确存在着共同的安全利益,只要三国能够在以中国倡导的新安全观问题上达成共识,真正拥有超越历史积怨的未来视野、超越冷战思维的战略智慧和超越自我的勇敢和自信,三国在一些关乎世界安全的重大领域中的军事合作仍然存在可能,尽管这种合作可能是有限的,但仍能为维护东亚乃至世界的和平与稳定发挥重大作用。     

论政府在经济转型中的作用 --俄罗斯与中国过渡经验之比较

一、引言 目前,新自由主义的制度、政策及其思想在世界上占主导地位.     

双边同盟体系制约下的东亚地区主义:困境与趋向

亚洲金融危机以来,东亚地区主义快速发展,但近年来美国不断强化其主导的双边同盟体系制约了东亚认同意识的形成,解构着东亚地区主义的社会文化基础;阻碍地区共同目标的建立,影响着东亚地区主义发展的层次及其机制化水平;造成东亚权力结构的对立,加剧了东亚国家间的互不信任,由此导致东亚地区主义发展陷入困境。由于地区内部驱动力不足以及域外因素美国势力的强力介入,东亚地区主义在地缘范围上将从东亚加快向亚太转移,在结构上将从多层次竞争性多边机制加快整合为统一的地区制度模式,在形式上将从松散模式向具有约束力的制度化方向转变。     

The Thawing of a Frozen Conflict: The Internal Security Dilemma and the 2004 Prelude to the Russo-Georgian War

While the proximate causes of the 2008 Russo–Georgian war have yet to be satisfactorily investigated, an assessment of an earlier occasion of conflict in South Ossetia in 2004 can lay the groundwork for an analysis of the later war. Like the 2008 war, the 2004 conflict was comprehensible on the basis of the ambitious war plans of opposing sides, but it was ultimately rooted in a security dilemma. The conflict thus provides a precedent for considering how a mix of limited offensive intentions, insecurity, uncertainty, and cognitive shortcuts and misperceptions had the capacity to lead to inadvertent war between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia.     

Before and after Dayton: The UN and NATO in the former Yugoslavia

Business managers name Africa's political instability as a key obstacle to economic development, but many companies continue to invest in Africa. The article explains this apparent contradiction by looking at the case of Shell in Nigeria. Nigeria experiences serious political instability, yet Shell is expanding its investment in the country. This article deals with sources of firm-specific political instability that have affected Shell in Nigeria in the past and attempts to explain why a specific corporation such as Shell may want to make investments in the country despite political instability. The examination of three different angles of Shell's activity, which forms the core of this paper, reveals that political instability does not hinder Shell from operating in Nigeria. Firstly, the international perspective illuminates in what way Nigeria may be more attractive to Shell than other countries. Profits in Nigeria appear to be higher than elsewhere, while Shell occupies a dominant market position unrivalled in most other countries. Secondly, the structural perspective illuminates the interconnectedness of Shell with state structures in Nigeria that may tie the company to Nigeria. Shell established a first mover advantage in the 1950s, since Nigeria was a British colony until 1960 and British oil companies were given preferential treatment. After independence, Shell managed to penetrate state structures which helped to hedge political risk in the country. Thirdly, the strategic perspective explores how Shell's strategic approaches may make political instability less significant to Shell. This article concludes that Shell has adopted to political instability. The conclusion that political instability can be conducive to business is significant since one expects political instability to be inherently harmful to business.     

Reassessing Democratic Consolidation in Central and Eastern Europe and the Role of the EU

Over the past two decades, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have completed a long transition from authoritarian rule, and joining the EU has been considered to be an indication of the end of the consolidation process. However, this path was anything but linear and in many cases it was marked by concentration and abuse of executive power, a systematic political patronage and a plebiscitary interpretation of democracy. In order to shed light on the meaning of these phenomena, this paper provides for an analysis of democratic consolidation in these countries by way of comparing the cases of Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia.     

The National Ideology and the Basis of the Lukashenka Regime in Belarus

The rule of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus has created one of the most resilient authoritarian regimes in post-communist Europe but the sources of its stability have not been clearly understood until now. The article suggests that President Lukashenka's authority is sustained on the basis of a national ideology, which he uses to drive his economic, social and foreign policies. The Belarusian transition reveals a new type of national mobilisation in the post-communist area: egalitarian nationalism. It is suggested that this ideology provides the principal source of the failure of democratisation and the authoritarian consolidation in post-Soviet states such as Belarus.     

Farm Expansion in Lithuania after Accession to the EU: The Role of CAP Payments in Alleviating Potential Credit Constraints

The impact of the introduction of EU Single Area Payments (SAPs) on farm expansion strategy in Lithuania is investigated, utilising farm accounting and survey data. The introduction of the SAP has a positive influence on farmers' intentions to expand their area compared to a baseline scenario of the hypothetical continuation of pre-accession policy. The switch in policy has a more pronounced effect on farms that were previously credit constrained. While the SAP has been presented as a support that is decoupled from production, its introduction may have ex post coupled effects, through an income multiplier effect on credit constrained farmers.     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and State Capture in Shaping Innovation Outcome in Russia

This article explores the linkage between foreign direct investment, grand corruption (that is, state capture) and innovation in Russia's regions in between 1997 and 2010. The results indicate that during the period under investigation both foreign direct investment and state capture were the significant determinants of innovation outcome. What is also interesting is that a positive impact of state capture on innovation through foreign firms, and a negative impact—through exporting—was observed.