Temporal regularities in homicide: Cycles,seasons, and autoregression

It has long been assumed that there exists a relationship between crime (including homicide) and season. After discussing three analytic approaches to this problem (looking for seasonality, a general autoregressive process, and cycles), we review the literature and show that confusing and conflicting findings have been reported about the temporal regularities of homicide. Employing monthly data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (1976–1989), we find evidence for seasonality, autoregression, and cyclicality of homicide. Our modeling approaches clarify the previous conflicting research; implications for theory and future research are discussed.The data utilized in this study were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data originally were collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Neither the collector of the original data nor the Consortium bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. The authors contributed equally to this article.     

宋格初探

宋初,编敕为最主要、最经常的立法形式,格的地位及作用明显衰微。神宗元丰以后,对格的编订又明显增加,其编纂体例等也有变化。这一变化的原因,是神宗对编敕、令、格、式的性质作重新界定,使格的性质发生显著变化:格完全行政法化,成为令的实施细则。格的性质的变化,其内在原因是编敕的刑法化。由于宋格成为令的实施细则,原为令的实施细则及公文程式的式则成为纯粹的公文程式。由于编敕、格性质及立法功能的变化,使得宋朝的立法模式也发生变化,即由宋初主要通过编敕进行立法的模式,变成对敕、令、格、式统一编订的立法模式。     

Homicide and economic conditions: A replication and critique of M. Harvey Brenner's new report to the U.S. Congress

M. Harvey Brenner has produced two influential studies of the social costs of unemployment, economic inequality, and economic growth, both sponsored by the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. This paper reports the results of an effort to reproduce Brenner's findings for homicide from his more recent (1984) study. Our conclusions are as follows. (1) Although not obvious from his write-up, Brenner's 1984 results differ substantively from his earlier results. (2) We are unable to reproduce his reported findings. (3) There are serious methodological problems with his procedure for choosing a regression specification.     

Homicide and economic change: Recent analyses of the Joint Economic Committee report of 1984

The relation between recession and homicide is classic in the United States. This has been affirmed in the 1976 and 1984 Reports to the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of the United States Congress. Recent analysis confirms the findings reported in both 1976 and 1984 and demonstrates that the influence of recession on homicide is greater than previously estimated. Differences in the 1976 and 1984 findings on homicide are related to differences in the hypotheses tested, as discussed in detail and highlighted in the 1984 report. JEC staff correctly interpreted and reported the 1984 findings. Reproduction of the 1984 homicide equation is straightforward, provided the same data and any of several standard estimation techniques are used. Evidence does not support any of Cook and Zarkin's claims in their critique of the 1984 homicide equation. The JEC report of 1984 used appropriate techniques in the attempt (a) to ensure that influences attributed to economic changes are not actually due to other social factors and (b) to minimize underspecification of models.     

Detecting Spatial Movement of Intra-Region Crime Patterns Over Time

Many of the traditional measures of the degree to which crime patterns change over space and time have limitations. In particular most are unable to determine any change in spatial crime pattern within an areal unit. Usually studies measure the change in crime levels in contiguous areas (expressed as discrete sub-divisions of a study area), but this can become problematic due to difficulties such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). This paper describes a technique developed to allow researchers to examine intra-study region changes in crime patterns between two time periods without the need to aggregate crime counts to within-city areal boundaries. The method presented uses a random point nearest neighbor test combined with a Monte Carlo simulation. The process resolves problems of patterning and the MAUP that are common with a number of spatial displacement and pattern movement studies. This technique is demonstrated with example data from a city-wide police burglary crackdown in the Australian capital.     

论我国现行立法背景下的物权变动模式

物权的变动模式作为物权法的重要内容,一直是学界讨论的热点。如何正确认识我国现行立法背景下的物权变动模式,对于未来物权立法能否选择一个既与国际接轨又适合我国国情的物权变动模式,有着重要的意义。笔者认为,我国现行法规定的物权变动模式,虽非债权意思主义,但也绝不是学界通说的债权形式主义,而是一种特有的模式——物权意思主义。