Elites' and Voters' Attitudes towards Austerity Policies and their Consequences in Greece and Portugal

This article analyses the attitudes of the political elite and voters in Greece and Portugal vis-à-vis the Troika bailouts, austerity policies and the attribution of responsibilities for the crisis. Using both elite and mass surveys with similar questions, the article explores to what extent the elites and voters share similar attitudes, what might explain possible differences between these two groups and between the two countries and what this information can tell us about the quality of political representation in Greece and Portugal. The differences between the countries are explained mainly by the severity of the crisis and austerity policies in each country, but also by the diversity of political conditions.     

Representation and Austerity Politics: Attitudes of Greek Voters and Elites Compared

Drawing on surveys of voters and MPs in Greece, this article analyses elite–mass interaction on key policy (austerity, European integration, immigration) and ideological issues after the 2012 elections. We find that while for the government parties, New Democracy and PASOK, the level of congruence is quite high, MPs from opposition parties (SYRIZA, Golden Dawn) place themselves in more exposed positions in comparison with their voters. The observed substantial variation in the intensity and direction of congruence, across parties and issue preferences in Greece, reinforces the view that the dimensionality of political contestation is not reducible to a single ideological dimension.     

The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Ideological Space in Portugal and Greece: A Comparison of Elites and Voters

This work addresses the dimensions and content of ideological space in Portugal and Greece after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis and the imposition of austerity policies in the two countries. By examining both elite interviews and public opinion data, the article principally attempts to determine whether the economic crisis has created a new division in ideological space by cross-cutting or completely replacing older ones. In addition, we attempt to gauge the position of crisis-related issues relative to issue divides on European integration and globalisation which, up to now, have been dormant in Southern European countries.     

Campaign Individualisation before and after the Bailout: A Comparison between Greece and Portugal

The elections that took place in Greece and Portugal before and after the intervention of the so-called Troika allow us to examine to what extent the austerity period has affected the nature and style of electoral campaigns, especially in terms of individualisation. Our results show that campaigns in Greece and Portugal were quite different and that Greek candidates supported by the two main parties are more likely to emphasise their role. Yet the short-term impact of the crisis has been negligible, as there have been insignificant shifts in the communicative focus on the personalisation of the agendas and on the means used in the campaign after the intervention of the Troika.     

Support for Democracy in Times of Crisis: Diffuse and Specific Regime Support in Portugal and Greece

In the context of a cross-national economic crisis, questions about democratic legitimacy are again topical. We explore the question of democratic legitimacy in Portugal and Greece by employing the conceptual differentiation between diffuse and specific regime support. Our findings indicate that while specific support has fallen in both countries, only Greece has experienced a precipitous fall in diffuse support, suggesting a link between regime performance and support for democracy. Individual-level analyses do not reveal any clear patterns concerning the impact of long-term societal factors or short-term economic considerations. Due to data quality limitations the paper has a predominately exploratory nature.     

The Distributional Impact of Austerity and the Recession in Southern Europe

Southern European welfare states are under stress. On the one hand, the recession has been causing unemployment to rise and incomes to fall. On the other hand, austerity has affected the capacity of welfare states to protect those affected. This paper assesses the distributional implications of the crisis in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal from 2009 to 2013. Using a microsimulation model, we disentangle the first-order effects of tax–benefit policies from the broader effects of the crisis, and estimate how its burden has been shared across income groups. We conclude by discussing the methodological pitfalls and policy implications of our research.     

Awakening the Sleeping Giant in Greece and Portugal? Elites' and Voters' Attitudes towards EU Integration in Difficult Economic Times

This article explores the extent to which the economic crisis and political responses of the European Union (EU) to austerity policies have contributed to Euroscepticism in Greece and Portugal. We analyse attitudes towards the EU at both voter and elite levels using fresh and innovative data, and by comparing them with data from surveys conducted before the crisis we show assessments of austerity and the bailouts are feeding elite and voter Euroscepticism. In both countries there are signs of a crisis of representation with greater voter–elite incongruence in the representation of EU issues than before the bailout.     

Welfare Performance in Southern Europe: Employment Crisis and Poverty Risk

The Great Recession has had a deep impact on employment levels and on income inequality in the Southern European countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy). It has given rise to a new stage in the discussion on the distinctiveness of a possible ‘Mediterranean’ variant of welfare capitalism. This paper analyses the performance of the Mediterranean cluster during the Great Recession period in its two main dimensions, labour market participation and poverty risk, and to what extent that performance has evolved in a divergent or convergent manner. Firstly, it portrays the main changes in this variant of welfare capitalism during the last two decades. The second and third sections, respectively, provide a comparative profile of the employment crisis suffered by these countries and of its impact on poverty risks. Finally, the main institutional traits are discussed, explaining the relative performance of welfare capitalism in this cluster of countries.     

The Rise of Golden Dawn: The New Face of the Far Right in Greece

The article examines the rise of the one of the most extremist political parties in Europe, Golden Dawn. It sketches the historical trajectory of the Greek far right, examines the ideological, organisational and voter profile of Golden Dawn, and offers possible explanations for its breakthrough in the 2012 elections. The article shows how the economic crisis has brought a massive realignment of the Greek electorate away from mainstream parties, giving rise to anti-system and anti-immigrant sentiments. Golden Dawn's violent tactics have allowed the party to establish an anti-system and anti-immigrant profile and capitalise on these sentiments. The party's future will depend on its capacity to absorb organisationally any future tensions between party pragmatists and idealists.     

从泰国军人干政看发展中国家政治制度危机

军事政变不仅是一种军事行动,更是一种政治行动.本文试图通过对泰国军事政变的分析,探讨在发展中国家军人干政的原理.本文认为,政变的发生取决于一个国家的社会结构因素和政治制度因素,其中政治参与的无序化与领导人退出机制的不完善是引发军事政变的最重要原因.虽然军人干政在历史上曾经起过积极作用,但在现代社会,军人干政已经不适应甚至危害民主政治的发展.为解决这个问题,发展中国家应该从调整社会结构、扩大政治参与和提升政治制度化水平等三个方面持续地付出努力.     

全球化时代的海外政治经济风险评估

目前,政治经济风险已成为海外投资和国家经济安全领域中的一个重要因素。由于全球化进程的不断深入和拓展,当一国遭遇政治经济风险时,往往产生连锁反应,给其他国家的国家利益带来风险。因此,对海外政治经济风险的评估和预测显得非常重要。国外的一些专门从事风险评估的机构,在这方面有较透彻的、持续的研究成果。本文着重介绍和分析国外一些著名的风险评估公司及其研究评估体系,并在此基础上提出对我国加强海外风险评估的若干看法。     

The 2014 Local Elections in Greece: Looking for Patterns in a Changing Political System

In May 2014, municipal and regional elections were held in Greece, concurrently with European elections. This was the first electoral test after the 2012 twin earthquake elections, which marked the beginning of a radical restructuring of the Greek political system. The fragmentation and inconsistency of voting behaviour across different polls in 2014 indicate that Greek politics remains in a transitional phase whose final outcome is still contested. Other characteristics of the elections, including the high proportion of independent candidates, the radical renewal of political personnel and the emergence of Berlusconism in two major municipalities, underline the continuing lack of legitimacy of the political system.     

从俄格冲突到国际金融危机的“危机政治经济学”——俄罗斯与大国关系的变迁及其对中国的启示

2008年发生的俄格军事冲突对俄罗斯与西方大国关系产生了重大影响.同一年金融危机的发生,也使得俄罗斯与西方关系受到巨大考验.这两场看似没有联系的重大危机都表现出俄罗斯在危机形势下不甘示弱的态度,也折射出俄罗斯与西方国家之间合作与竞争的复杂状况.所谓危机政治经济学强调的是,无论是摆脱军事冲突,还是金融海啸式的危机,大国间的合作将是一个决定性的因素.     

泰国政治权力结构调整的动力、路径与困境

基于对政治利益集团权力斗争的分析,本文认为,近年来泰国政局持续动荡的根源在于政治权力结构调整所面临的转型困境。20世纪90年代以来,泰国在全球化外部风险与国内城乡发展失衡的双重压力下,形成对国家发展道路的重新选择要求。经济利益结构的改革压力,形成对"碎片化"政治权力结构的调整动力。1997年东亚金融危机爆发,成为推动泰国政治权力结构调整的契机。既得利益集团倾向于保留"碎片化"格局的改良方案,但代表新资本集团的他信派系倾向于政治改革,要求建构由其主导的"层级式"政治权力结构。他信派系得益于新资本集团与农民群体的政治联合,在"政治权力结构—经济利益结构"大循环调整过程中占据优势;既得利益集团得益于国王权威的支持,在"政治权力结构—政治文化传统"小循环调整过程中掌握主动。双方在政治权力结构的调整过程中相互制衡,从而使得泰国的政治秩序迟迟未能重建。     

精英互动与缅甸的政治发展:2011年缅甸的政治与外交

2011年缅甸政府与国内外精英的互动有力地推动了缅甸的政治发展。通过与政治反对派的互动,政府修改了政党登记法,赢得了政治反对派的初步信任,为更广范围分享政治权力扫清了障碍。通过与少数民族武装的互动,政府赢得了少数民族武装的信任,与绝大部分少数民族武装签订了和平协议,为更公平地在民族间分享资源创造了可能。通过与外国政要的互动,政府赢得了西方国家的信任,西方开始逐步解除对缅甸的制裁,为缅甸生产和提供更好的公共产品提供了条件。政府叫停密松电站建设可以看做是缅甸政府与国内外精英互动的一个顺理成章的结果。2011年缅甸的精英互动与政治发展表明:即使为结构所限,精英的认知和互动也可以推动一个国家的政治发展。     

Living Parallel Lives: Italy and Greece in an Age of Austerity

The economic crisis has triggered a process of political convergence between Italy and Greece. The simultaneous downfall of the Italian and Greek governments, following the public withdrawal of European confidence in their ability to handle the crisis, was followed by the establishment of technocrat-led governments based on parliamentary ‘super-majorities’ and then by ‘protest elections’, marked by unprecedented levels of electoral volatility. By apparently ending bipolarism, the crisis has completely changed patterns of national government formation and resulted in experiments with unusual government types. Both political systems have entered a transitional phase whose outcome is anything but certain, especially in the continuing context of economic crisis.     

“欧元乐园”的迷失与重建——兼论对东亚区域货币合作的启示

希腊主权债务危机引发的欧元危机是对欧洲区域经济与货币一体化的一次重大考验,深刻反映了欧洲经货联盟成立以来所出现的两大问题:成员国之间经济的不平衡发展以及联盟合作机制的缺陷。欧元危机给东亚区域货币与金融合作的启示是,在以欧盟货币合作为样板的同时,应着重加强区域内信息共享与政策合作,以清迈倡议(CMI)和清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)为基础加快东亚货币合作机制建设,完善区域监管体系;同时加强区域内各国汇率合作和资本账户自由化,稳步推进区域金融市场一体化进程,逐步缩小各国之间汇率波动的幅度,以此推进东亚区域经济合作向纵深发展。     

Political Representation and Gender in Brazil: Quotas for Women and their Impact

In the 1990s, Brazilian Congress approved an electoral quota for female candidates in parliamentary competition (with exception of the Senate). The reticence of the law and the peculiarities of the Brazilian open lists electoral system have given rise to concern that the quotas will fail. In fact, there has been no great increase in the number of women in Brazilian legislatives – there has been some change in the municipalities, a little less in the states and almost nothing at the federal level. Analysing in detail the results of four elections to the federal Chamber of Deputies, two before and two after the quotas, it becomes apparent that, in Brazil, the impact of quotas is mediated far more than in other countries. Quotas provide, above all, an incentive to party elites to support an increase in the number of female political leaders, and the results may appear only at mid term.     

The 'Lessons' of Dictatorship: Political Learning and the Military in Chile

This article argues that political learning with regard to civil-military relations in Chile has proved an obstacle to democratization. In the postauthoritarian period, both the armed forces and political parties have referred to history when considering civil-military reform, especially with regard to how to avoid a repeat of the conflict of the Unidad Popular period. Meanwhile, the military also utilizes the Spanish example when resisting changes it feels are inimical to its interests. The 'lessons' each takes from the past directly influence political strategies and the overall result is that while civilian rule continues, democratic civil-military relations are not necessarily advanced.