When Valence Crushes: Explaining the Electoral Failure of the German FDP in the 2013 Election

This paper examines why the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to gain electoral success in 2013 despite being well positioned in terms of left–right ideology. Indeed, its vote share dropped from its highest ever point in 2009 (14.6 per cent of the national vote) to its lowest ever in 2013 (4.8 per cent of the vote). The paper shows that the FDP’s valence dropped dramatically between 2009 and 2013. In addition, voting simulations show that the FDP was positioned close to its vote-maximising positions on policy and ideology. However, given the FDP’s extremely low valence it could not have taken any set of policy positions that would have significantly increased its vote share.     

Ambitious Goals,Deficient Output: Tax and Fiscal Policies of the Conservative–Liberal Government, 2009–13

Tax policy was at the heart of the Merkel II government's reform agenda. The CDU/CSU and FDP promised significant tax cuts and simplifications of the tax system. During their term, however, they remained the least active of all German governments of the last four decades. Why? This article argues that a combination of factors relating to the dynamics of electoral competition and structural problem pressure can explain this outcome: The new constitutional debt brake and the Euro Crisis foreclosed the traditional ‘solution’ of glossing over the conflict within the coalition between its economically liberal constituency (FDP and parts of CDU/CSU) and pro-welfare state constituency (other parts of CDU/CSU) by combining tax reductions with continued high spending. The result was a devastating loss for the FDP in the 2013 elections, and a victory for the CDU/CSU which profited from positioning itself as a moderate and stabilising political force in uncertain times of crisis.     

The Policy of Strategic Demobilisation: The Social Policy of the Christian Democratic–Liberal Coalition, 2009–13

This article addresses two research questions: which course did the CDU, CSU–FDP coalition government choose to follow in social policy from 2009 to 2013? And what relationships exist between social policy in this period and the Bundestag election in 2013? The analysis of primary and secondary data reveals both continuity and discontinuity in social policy in the 17th legislative period of the Bundestag. The decisions and non-decisions on social protection and labour market regulation in this period mirror a wide variety of determinants. These include partisan effects, electoral cycles, co-governing judges and anonymous social policy of market forces. The data also suggest that the CDU/CSU has been relatively successful in its strategy of ‘asymmetric demobilisation’, the strategy of changing its social policy profile to one more similar to that of its social democratic opponent, in order to demobilise the SPD's voters rather than mobilising them. More ambivalent has been the electoral outcome of the FDP's role in social policy. The FDP's first foray into leading a large welfare state ministry, the Federal Ministry of Health, in 2009 to 2013 did not prove to be a winning proposition for the Liberals electorally. Social policy in general and welfare state recalibration in particular thus seem to be an electorally especially risky project for a liberal party such as the FDP.     

From ‘Dream Team’ to ‘Marriage of Convenience’? An Introduction

This introduction connects some of the main themes covered in this special issue on Chancellor Merkel's second coalition cabinet, which was formed in October 2009 and ended with the electoral collapse of the FDP in the Bundestag election of September 2013. It starts by setting out an interesting ‘puzzle’: the parties forming the coalition of 2009–2013 (CDU, CSU and FDP) had expressed a strong preference for this coalition in the run-up to the election of 2009. Despite their seeming agreement in many policy areas, the coalition formed in 2009 faced tough negotiations and conflicts between the parties from the beginning. The economic crisis the preceding government faced between 2005 and 2009 and unforeseen events during the course of the CDU/CSU–FDP coalition 2009–2013 (e.g. the Euro crisis and the Fukushima environmental disaster) had altered the policy agenda in important ways and rendered the former ‘Christian–Liberal reform project’ obsolete.     

The Election in Iraq

Although election of the Iraqi Interim National Assembly on 30 January 2005 was a step on the path toward democracy, it is too soon to judge it a resounding success. Further, it 7is important to keep in mind that the election is significant not only regarding the democratic process for the people of Iraq but also for the US and the future of US policy toward the Middle East.

Many Iraqis strongly desired democracy and some steps toward democratization showed resemblance to the democracy movement in Europe. However, the exclusion of popular political movements and the emergence of mistrust failed the political process.

At last, with the involvement of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the election was realized. However, the Iraqi elections do not merit unreserved acclaim. This election allows, for the first time in Iraq's history, competition among ethnic and religious factions. Different attitudes among these groups toward the election and its results may further widen the gap separating them. In fact, the most important consideration regarding the election is what happens from now on.     

后苏联时期的俄罗斯政治领袖

政治领袖是苏联和俄罗斯政治体系中的关键组成部分,在后苏联时代的俄罗斯政治生活中占有特别重要的地位。俄罗斯政治文化一直偏爱强势而有个性的政治领袖,从1917年以来的苏联领袖大多都秉持了这一特点。改革派领导人戈尔巴乔夫由于自己的优柔寡断而丧失了对于改革乃至国家的控制,而与其个人风格和成长经历迥异的叶利钦经历了一系列复杂的政治斗争,最终成为了新生的俄罗斯联邦的领袖。他推动俄罗斯进行了激进的市场化改革,希望使俄罗斯走上以市场经济为特征的"文明之路",但由于复杂的国际国内环境以及政策方面的失误,这一尝试最终以失败而告终。虽然他是俄罗斯第一任民选总统,但叶利钦自相矛盾的执政风格、不稳定的心理状态和诸多生活上的不良习惯都令人诟病,他虽然赢得了竞选连任,但由于身体原因和杜马掣肘,很难有所作为。在经历了复杂的甄选之后,他选择了普京作为自己的接班人,并且帮助普京顺利当选。有克格勃背景的普京是一位具有开拓精神和无比坚韧的性格的领导人。在接任总理之后,很快凭借自己的超群才能,解决了车臣问题,并且有效提高了社会福利,从而迅速提高了自己的威望,以绝对优势当选总统。执政之后,普京很快推动了俄罗斯政治制度新的"转型",他通过除了暴力之外的一切手段强化国家权力,打击"寡头",取消地方选举,限制独立媒体,通过"西罗维基"掌控权力,最终使整个政权集中于自己的手中,形成了被称为"可控民主"或"主权民主"的普京体制。在八年任期结束后,普京拒绝了第三个总统任期,而选择了一项略显复杂的政治安排。将总统职务交给自己的亲信梅德韦杰夫,本人则以总理和统一俄罗斯党主席的身份继续参政,形成了一种特殊的"双头制"政权,直到2012年重返克里姆林宫。随着时代的变迁,俄罗斯正处于发展的十字路口。普京的重新执政对于俄罗斯未来的改革可能将会是一个积极的因素,因为他拥有足够的权力推动改革的进行。虽然面对诸多不确定的挑战,但仍然有成功的机会。     

The 2006 Landtag Election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

The election of the fifth state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was, for the first time since 1990, a ‘true’ state election because it did not take place on the same day as the federal election. The opportunity for thrusting this state's own political topics into the limelight was, however, not used by any of the parties. Both the SPD which had been part of a red-red coalition with the PDS since 1998 and the CDU left the coalition question open during the campaign. Partially because of this, there was no polarization among voters. The voter turnout was quit low. Despite great losses, the SPD emerged as the strongest party. The Linkspartei.PDS made only minimal advances and the CDU dropped to a record low of less than 30 per cent of the vote. In addition to the FDP which was able to re-enter parliament for the first time since 1990, the right-extremist NPD managed to overcome the five percent hurdle. Thus, the previous three party system ended. Due to the narrow majority, Prime Minister Harald Ringstorff (SPD) decided against a continuation of the red-red coalition and instead formed a grand coalition with the CDU.     

The 2009 Landtag Election in Saxony

The Landtag election in Saxony was one of three elections for state parliaments, all taking place on 30 August 2009. Out of the three, it was the one where there was little doubt that the CDU would, once again, appoint the next Prime Minister. Aside from the lack of surprise in the election outcome, this election had some historic moments. After the right-wing NPD was able to re-enter the Saxon Landtag, Saxony is the only German state parliament with six party parliamentary groups present. Further, turnout at this election was 52 per cent, an all-time low. The election ended Saxony's grand coalition and established its first CDU–FDP coalition. Within two weeks after the election, the new coalition contract was negotiated and the new government was sworn in so as to present a clear signal to national voters that a black and yellow coalition was a good and workable alternative to the grand coalition in the German Bundestag as well.     

The Ambiguity of Veto Power in Coalitions: German Liberals' Role as a Watchdog in Justice and Home Affairs and their Failure to Sell Stalemate as Success in the Federal Elections of 2013

The article demonstrates that the rigid use of veto capacity in coalitions causes risks for re-election. Justice was a high-salience domain of the German Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), which occupied this portfolio in its coalition with the Conservative majority in the federal legislative period from 2009 to 2013. By analysing several legislative projects the article shows that their contents or non-adoption were an effect of liberals' vetoes. This policy-seeking strategy provoked conflicts within the coalition and stalemate making it impossible to realise popular measures that would have enhanced the Liberals' reputation and the importance of the domain for the voters who were mainly interested in economic and social policy. Moreover, the Liberals' vetoes led to a loss of support from its major coalition partner in the pre-election campaign. Thus governmental parties have to trade off policy and vote-seeking goals in order to get re-elected.     

Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.     

A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election

Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.     

Newspaper Representation of the Debates in the 2007 Jamaican General Election Campaign

This article deconstructs the newspaper representations of three debates held in 2007 during the Jamaican General Election campaign. The theory of social representation is used in this article to explain political behaviour and outcomes. Representations are the images, words, symbols or phrases that are generated from people's dialogic interaction that signify meanings. Content analysis of relevant articles covering the electoral campaign in the main print media in Jamaica forms the empirical basis for study. The majority of representations of the three main debates were negative, revealing that political manifestos were largely ignored and policy funding was not addressed. Significant issues such as crime, education, health, garrison politics, corruption and unemployment were inadequately addressed, and the wider global context of these matters was ignored. The consensus was that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won two of the three debates, notably the leadership debate in which the Leader of the Opposition, Bruce Golding MP, performed more effectively than the then current Prime Minister, Portia Simpson‐Miller of the People's National Party (PNP). Social representation theory is used to assess the types of political meanings generated by media coverage during the General Election. It is suggested that the perceived success of the JLP candidates in the main debates was an important contribution to the party's overall electoral victory.     

Eroding Germany’s Commitment to Data Protection: Policy Entrepreneurs and Coalition Politics in EU Passenger Name Records

A history of totalitarian governments and state surveillance appear to have made Germans sensitive towards the uses of personal data. Because of such concerns, Germany often acted as an obstacle to security measures requiring personal data at the EU level. However, there has been a recent sea-change in Germany over EU Passenger Name Records (EU-PNR), a measure that requires the personal data of airline passengers for security purposes. Many in Berlin have moved from lukewarm at the time of the first EU-PNR proposal in 2007 to advocating it in 2014. The article draws on Kingdon's Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to examine this change in position, comparing two government coalitions – the CDU/CSU–FDP (2009–13) with the CDU/CSU–SPD (2013–) – to show how actors within the CDU/CSU have acted as policy entrepreneurs to ensure agreement on EU-PNR. It is argued that the composition of governmental coalitions can act as a central condition that facilitates or hinders the success of policy entrepreneurs. While the position of the FDP blocked any progress on EU-PNR in the former coalition, policy entrepreneurs used the willingness of the SPD to show voters their support for tougher security measures, thereby ensuring Germany’s support for EU-PNR.     

Calling the Ghost of Populism: The AfD's Strategic and Tactical Agendas until the EP Election 2014

Since the formation of the German AfD in spring 2013, political scientists have discussed whether the AfD can be classified as a populist party. Despite the split of the party in summer 2015 leading to this characterisation becoming uncontested, the question remains whether the AfD was populist from its inception. This article demonstrates that distinguishing between the tactical and strategic agendas of the party solves this conundrum. While the AfD seldom applied populist discourse in its official manifestos, its tactical agenda was undoubtedly framed by populism. Ironically, it has been the ideologically moderate economist wing that has applied populist discourse in combination with its critique of the euro.     

Populism on Difficult Terrain: The Right- and Left-Wing Challenger Parties in the Federal Republic of Germany

Right-wing populist parties in Germany were unable to benefit from the success of their counterparts in neighbouring Western European states from the mid-1980s. Despite this failure, there were several attempts to establish such a party in Germany. Even the ‘centre’ of the political spectrum attempted to approach populist structures and content, and this was especially true of the FDP during the 2002 parliamentary election campaign. After a discussion of the term ‘populism’, we analyse the different parties' opportunities, political proposals and the reasons why they ultimately failed. We then examine the recently founded party ‘The Left’ as a case of left-wing populism, a rarely discussed topic, and we pay particular attention to the development of the leftist alliance between PDS and WASG. Finally, we discuss whether a leftist populist grouping could, perhaps, have better prospects for success in the German party system than a right-wing populist party.     

2011年大选之后的泰国

泰国2011年大选前的政治格局与他信时期相比并没有太大的改变,因此,完全没有政治经验的英拉的上台也就不会令人感到太意外。但如上届政府一样,英拉上台后面临重重困难。外交方面,英拉政府则表现出色,在短短的时间内构建了包括周边国家、区域大国和国际组织在内的全方位外交体系。     

The Prospects of the FDP in Comparative Perspective: Rest in Peace or Totgesagte leben länger?

This article examines the conditions under which political parties that have dropped below the threshold of legislative representation later re-enter parliament. To do so, it compares two German parties that did not return to the Bundestag and two that did. In light of the ‘lessons' of previous cases in the Federal Republic, the essay considers the prospects of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the wake of its 2013 federal election defeat.     

美国与巴基斯坦关系的改善及其制约因素

冷战后,巴基斯坦在美国外交中的战略地位明显下降,特朗普上台后更是重印轻巴,推出了高度重视印度的南亚战略和印太战略,对巴基斯坦则实行极限施压政策以逼其加大反恐力度。美国的政策变化引起了巴基斯坦政府和民众的不满与抵制,两国间出现激烈的外交纷争,美巴关系陷入僵局。然而,巴基斯坦在美国的阿富汗战争和外交战略中处于不可忽视的地位,并且巴基斯坦是具有一定的对美反制能力的地区强国,特朗普政府在更为重要的阿富汗和谈问题上需要得到巴基斯坦的帮助。在权衡利弊后,特朗普政府调整对巴基斯坦政策,从以压促变调整为拉拢利用,美巴关系随之从高度紧张走向逐渐缓和。然而,美巴在短期利益和长远战略上都存在难以弥合的矛盾和分歧,双边关系发展缺乏坚实的合作基础和长远计划,两国在主要的共同利益——阿富汗政治和解方面存在目标和利益差异。此外,美印关系不断提升,使美巴双边关系的进一步发展困难重重。美国不愿放弃在巴基斯坦及邻近地区的战略利益,短期内会维持美巴合作,但从长远看,众多挑战和制约因素使两国关系存在较大的不确定性。美巴关系的走向不仅影响到南亚局势,还会冲击到我国的周边安全、中巴关系的发展以及"一带一路"倡议的推进,应当密切关注。     

The 1992 health reform victory over pressure group politics

The 1988 health reform was substantially undermined by the influence of powerful pressure groups representing the interests of the medical profession and the pharmaceutical industry and resistance from the German federal states. Consequently, it failed to achieve its aim of ‘cutting costs’. The theory supporting ‘resistance to reform within the health care system’ was widely accepted in the literature on the subject. The 1992 reform appeared to contradict this theory, as the political leadership succeeded in overcoming both party policy and intergovernmental differences, as well as making considerable cost savings and structural changes in spite of resistance from the opposition ‘lobby’. Three factors were responsible for this. They were under enormous pressure to act due to the financial crisis and the interdependent costs within the welfare state, the changing motives within the health care system, and a new political strategy which responded to this. In the long term, prospects are for a trend towards ‘greater privatisation’.     

The 1996 länder elections in Baden‐Württemberg,Rhineland‐Palatinate and Schleswig‐Holstein: The ebbing of the tides of March?

This article analyses the three state elections of March 1996 in Baden‐Württemberg, Rhineland‐Palatinate and Schleswig‐Holstein in the context of both the political history and traditions of each Land in turn as well as the national political context in which they took place. These elections served to strengthen the hand of the Bonn coalition of the CDU–CSU and FDP, eliminating in the process the risk to its slim majority in the Bundestag. The most immediate and fundamental questions arising from these three election results concern the SPD. The main problem for the party is the lack of a credible strategy based on a clear sense of what the SPD stands for today.