THE IMPACT OF BRITISH COUNTERTERRORIST STRATEGIES ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: COMPARING DETERRENCE AND BACKLASH MODELS*

Since philosophers Beccaria and Bentham, criminologists have been concerned with predicting how governmental attempts to maintain lawful behavior affect subsequent rates of criminal violence. In this article, we build on prior research to argue that governmental responses to a specific form of criminal violence—terrorism—may produce both a positive deterrence effect (i.e., reducing future incidence of prohibited behavior) and a negative backlash effect (i.e., increasing future incidence of prohibited behavior). Deterrence‐based models have long dominated both criminal justice and counterterrorist policies on responding to violence. The models maintain that an individual's prohibited behavior can be altered by the threat and imposition of punishment. Backlash models are more theoretically scattered but receive mixed support from several sources, which include research on counterterrorism; the criminology literature on labeling, legitimacy, and defiance; and the psychological literature on social power and decision making. In this article, we identify six major British strategies aimed at reducing political violence in Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1992 and then use a Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the impact of these interventions on the risk of new attacks. In general, we find the strongest support for backlash models. The only support for deterrence models was a military surge called Operation Motorman, which was followed by significant declines in the risk of new attacks. The results underscore the importance of considering the possibility that antiterrorist interventions might both increase and decrease subsequent violence.     

Risk of Revictimization of Intimate Partner Violence: The Role of Attachment, Anger and Violent Behavior of the Victim

Victims of intimate partner violence (IPV) are known to be at high risk for revictimization. Yet, to date, the mechanisms explaining the link between victimization and revictimization of IPV have not been extensively studied. In the present prospective study involving 74 female help-seeking victims of IPV, we investigated victim-related psychological mechanisms that may underlie this link. With this study, we aim to contribute to the development of theory addressing these psychological mechanisms and their role in explaining risk for IPV revictimization. Hypotheses regarding possibly relevant psychological mechanisms were derived from two conflicting approaches to IPV: the gender perspective, and the mutual IPV perspective. Results lend further support to the mutual IPV perspective, since our final prediction model indicates that victim-perpetrated IPV is an important risk factor for physical and psychological IPV revictimization. An avoidant attachment style shows to be a strong predictor as well, in particular for victims with high and average anger levels. Findings provide clear indications for risk assessment and treatment of IPV victims, and moreover offer opportunities to empower these victims in order to prevent future violence.     

Suicidal behavior among low-income, African American female victims of intimate terrorism and situational couple violence

This study examined risk of suicidal behavior among low-income, African American women (N = 369) in three types of male intimate relationships- intimate terrorism (IT) (i.e., physical violence used within a general pattern of coercive control), situational couple violence (SCV; i.e., episodic physical violence that is not part of a general pattern of coercive control), and nonviolent (NV; i.e., no physical violence). IT victims had more than double the odds of suicidal behavior compared to SCV victims and this association remained significant after controlling for physical violence severity, depression symptoms, and alcohol and drug abuse. Risk of suicidal behavior was not significantly different for SCV victims compared to women in NV relationships. Findings emphasize the need for researchers and practitioners to distinguish between types of male partner violence when examining its context and consequences for female victims.     

The Effects of Child Abuse and Exposure to Domestic Violence on Adolescent Internalizing and Externalizing Behavior Problems

This study examines the effects of child abuse and domestic violence exposure in childhood on adolescent internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Data for this analysis are from the Lehigh Longitudinal Study, a prospective study of 457 youth addressing outcomes of family violence and resilience in individuals and families. Results show that child abuse, domestic violence, and both in combination (i.e., dual exposure) increase a child’s risk for internalizing and externalizing outcomes in adolescence. When accounting for risk factors associated with additional stressors in the family and surrounding environment, only those children with dual exposure had an elevated risk of the tested outcomes compared to non-exposed youth. However, while there were some observable differences in the prediction of outcomes for children with dual exposure compared to those with single exposure (i.e., abuse only or exposure to domestic violence only), these difference were not statistically significant. Analyses showed that the effects of exposure for boys and girls are statistically comparable.     

Issues in violent risk assessment: lessons learned and future directions

Realizing that the assessment of dangerousness with a yes/no format as a poor form of violent risk assessment has been the most important lesson learned about violence in the last 20 years. Further examining (a) what outcome and (b) how the indicators of the outcome should be measured has resulted in better violent risk assessment. The most promising methodological innovation in violent risk assessment has been the introduction of the receiver operating characteristic to assess the efficiency of risk prediction. In the future, the tension between prediction and explanation of violence will need to be maintained while focusing on a mechanism-driven strategy of risk management.     

Are Risky Youth Less Protectable as They Age? The Dynamics of Protection during Adolescence and Young Adulthood

Research on recidivism in criminal justice and desistance in criminology are not integrated. Yet, both fields are moving towards models that look at how positive elements in a person’s environment can impact a person’s behavior, conditional on different levels of risk. This study builds on this observation by applying interactional theory and the concept of Risk–Needs–Responsivity to theorize that both Needs and Responsivity will change over time in predictable ways. We then use a novel empirical approach with the Rochester Youth Development Study to show that even in late adolescence, individuals who are at risk for violence can be protected from future violence and risky behavior like gun carrying with positive events in their environment and personal life. In young adulthood, fewer people are still at risk for violence, and those who are at risk are harder to protect from future violence and gun carrying.     

The development of a new risk model: The Threat Matrix

The risk assessment of sex offenders has evolved rapidly over a 20‐year period. However, there is still disparity between empirically evaluated approaches and the needs within the applied context. This article discusses the division between the current needs in the applied setting of sex offender risk assessment, and the existing approaches to risk assessment. It highlights key needs that ought to be responded to, to continue the evolution of sex offender risk assessment (i.e., increased automation of processes, additional emphasis on early identification and prevention, and the targeting of resources towards risk). A new risk assessment model termed the Threat Matrix is introduced as a proposed response to these needs. The new model uses information derived from police systems to make proactive assessments of those who may pose a risk of sexual violence, but who have not been convicted of sexual offences. The practical and ethical implications of implementing and testing this model are discussed.     

HCR-20 violence risk assessments as a guide for treating and managing violence risk in a forensic psychiatric setting

Abstract

Over the past decades there has been a vast development in the research into risk factors for violence and the development of risk assessment instruments. One instrument that has been given special attention is the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of this tool, i.e. how does this assessment scheme perform when utilized in clinical practice as a tool to guide intervention and management in order to alleviate risk of violent behaviour? The present study was a true prospective study into the utilization of the HCR-20 as a clinical routine. Data on forensic psychiatric patients (n = 81) from a forensic unit in Denmark are presented. As part of a clinical routine all patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing the structured professional judgement model, the HCR-20. Outcome measures were aggressive episodes during hospitalization and new convictions post discharge. The predictive validity of the HCR-20 was lower compared with previous findings. It is argued that this does not necessarily indicate poor predictive accuracy of the HCR-20. Rather, it may indicate that the HCR-20 is suitable for guiding risk management in order to prevent violent behaviour.     

Risk assessment for intimate partner violence: how can the police assess risk?

ABSTRACT

The use of risk assessment tools by frontline police for intimate partner violence has the potential to make a difference to policing. In this paper, the key aspects of intimate partner violence risk assessment are outlined critically with a particular emphasis on how they can be used in practice. Two, evidence-based, exemplars are reviewed. These are the Ontario Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment (ODARA), an example of the actuarial approach, and the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER), an example of the structured professional judgement approach. In addition, the victim giving his or her own appraisal of risk is discussed. All three approaches have some validity when administered properly but practical factors reduce this validity. The content of the risk assessment tools are outlined and practical concerns such as training, time to administer, reliability, validity, and the overlap of intimate partner violence with other forms of offending are discussed. A balanced overview of the strengths, weaknesses and future potential of intimate partner violence risk assessment is provided.     

Examining the Science and Practice of Violence Risk Assessment with Female Adolescents

While the field of violence risk assessment among adult males has progressed rapidly, several questions remain with respect to the application of forensic risk assessment tools within other populations. In this article, we consider the empirical evidence for the assessment, prediction, and management of violence in adolescent girls. We discuss limitations of generalizing violence risk assessment findings from other populations to adolescent girls and point out areas where there is little or no empirical foundation. Critical issues that must be addressed in research prior to the adoption or rejection of such instruments are delineated. Finally, we provide practice guidelines for clinicians currently involved with adolescent females within risk assessment contexts.     

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

ABSTRACT

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.     

The Time Course of Repeat Intimate Partner Violence

This study examines the time course of repeat victimization by assessing whether the opportunity for victim/offender contact influences the time lapse between successive incidents of intimate partner violence. Several measures of opportunity for victim/offender contact are used, including cohabitation, co-parenting, restraining order status, and victim unemployment. The study finds that some victims (i.e., those who live with the offender) are at risk of repeat victimization in a shorter period of time than other victims. However, the study yields conflicting findings about the relationship between other opportunity variables (i.e., co-parenting and victim unemployment) and the time lapse between successive incidents of intimate partner violence. Policy implications are discussed and suggestions are offered for future research on repeat intimate partner violence.     

Non-Sexual Delinquency in Juvenile Sexual Offenders: The Mediating and Moderating Influences of Emotional Empathy

The theoretical linkage of empathy to sexually aggressive and antisocial behavior is reviewed, and assessment conducted on the role of emotional empathy in the non-sexual delinquent behavior of juvenile sexual offenders. In examination of developmental antecedents of empathy, self-reported parental attachment and positive fathering experiences were found to be positively associated with emotional empathy, while reported exposure to violence against females was inversely related. As hypothesized, emotional empathy was found to have both mediating and moderating influences on risk of engagement in non-sexual delinquency. Emotional empathy was found to be negatively associated with non-sexual delinquency and to partially mediate the positive influences of exposure to violence against females and hostile masculinity. Emotional empathy was also found to function as a moderator of hostile masculinity, with high empathy levels associated with an attenuated positive effect of hostile masculinity on non-sexual delinquency, and low levels with an accentuated effect. Possible mechanisms for this moderating influence are discussed, along with clinical implications of the findings and directions for future research.     

青少年暴力行为的预测和评估

青少年暴力行为是全球广泛关注的公共卫生和社会问题,了解青少年暴力行为的风险因素和预测方法有助于减少青少年暴力行为的发生.本文对青少年暴力的个体因素、社会心理因素、生物学因素进行了总结,对预测和评估研究的现状进行了复习,以期对青少年暴力行为发生的减少和进一步深入研究有所帮助.     

Conflicting Consensus

Abstract

Limited research exists on the extent to which the public supports the criminalization of domestic violence, and whether people believe police pro-arrest policies will deter future offending. Based on conflict theory, it is hypothesized that there will be differences in support for criminalization between powerful (i.e., middle to upper class Caucasian men) and less powerful demographic groups (i.e., women, minorities, and the economically and educationally disadvantaged). Data were collected from a randomized telephone survey of Alabama residents and analyzed using ordered regression models. Results indicate that a majority of respondents agreed with a pro-arrest policy for domestic violence; however, age, education, income, and gender subgroup differences offer support for the conflict model. An additional finding that domestic violence victimization plays a significant role in the formulation of respondents' attitudes toward these policies needs to be more closely investigated.     

Victims' influence on intimate partner violence revictimization: an empirical test of dynamic victim-related risk factors

Research has reported that not only characteristics of the perpetrator but also characteristics of the victim influence risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). This would suggest that prevention of repeat abuse could benefit from a focus on both perpetrator and victim characteristics. Knowledge on factors that are within victims' sphere of influence is important because a focus on victim characteristics can help victims to take control of their situations and can thereby empower them. Dynamic victim-related factors are most relevant here as these are factors that can be changed or improved, in contrast to unchangeable static factors. Surprisingly, however, little is known about how victim-related factors affect risk for revictimization of IPV. The current study was conducted among a Dutch sample of 156 female, help-seeking IPV victims. The aim was to examine to what extent prior IPV and, in particular, dynamic victim-related factors influence risk for future IPV. In accordance with the models articulated by Foa, Cascardi, Zoellner and Feeny, we studied how the three key factors from their models-partner violence, victims' psychological difficulties, and victims' resilience-related to risk for IPV revictimization. Results provide support for several key factors (partner violence and victims' psychological difficulties) and, moreover, show which victim-related factors contribute to revictimization risk above and beyond the influence of prior violence committed by a partner against the victim (i.e., victims' prior IPV victimizations). Findings are discussed in terms of recommendations for practice and future research.     

Intimate Partner Homicide: Risk Assessment and Prospects for Prediction

Little is known about assessing the risk of intimate partner homicide (IPH). Research has shown that women killed by an intimate partner scored higher than abuse survivors in retrospectively measured risk for IPH. In this study, we examined the characteristics of 146 men who committed an actual or attempted act of IPH. Of these, 42% had prior criminal charges, 15% had a psychiatric history, and 18% had both; events which could feasibly have permitted a prior formal assessment of risk. We also identified a subsample of 30 who could be scored on the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA; Hilton et al., Psychological Assessment, 16, 267–275, 2004). The mean ODARA score was at the 80th percentile of risk for domestic violence, although only 13 had a previously documented partner assault. We conclude that co-operation among sectors responding to domestic violence and the shared use of validated risk assessment will increase the prediction and potential prevention of IPH.     

Methodological development: structured outcome assessment and community risk monitoring (SORM)

This paper describes an effort to develop a clinical tool for the continuous monitoring of risk for violence in forensic mental health clients who have left their institutions and who are dwelling in the community on a conditional release basis. The model is called Structured Outcome Assessment and Community Risk Monitoring (SORM). The SORM consists of 30 dynamic factors and each factor in SORM is assessed in two ways: The current absence, presence or partial och intermittent presence of the factors, which is an actuarial (systematized and 'objective') assessment. Secondly, the risk effect, i.e. whether the presence/absence of factors currently increases, decreases or is perceived as unrelated to violence risk, is a clinical (or impressionistic) assessment. Thus, the factors considered via the SORM can be coded as risk factors or protective factors (or as factors unimportant to risk of violence) depending on circumstances that apply in the individual case. Further, the SORM has a built-in module for gathering idiographical information about risk-affecting contextual factors. The use of the SORM and its potential as a risk monitoring instrument is illustrated via preliminary data and case vignettes from an ongoing multicenter project. In this research project, patients leaving any of the 9 participating forensic hospitals in Sweden is assessed at release on a variety of static background factors, and the SORM is then administered every 30 days for 2 years.     

Youth and parental attitudes toward fighting

Certain parenting behaviors have been linked with youth aggression and violence, but less is known about whether parents' attitudes toward fighting are a risk factor for children's aggressive behavior problems and future injury risk. Social cognitive theory suggests that parents' beliefs about fighting and retaliation may influence their children's attitudes toward fighting and aggression. The authors examined the associations among parental and youth attitudes toward fighting, parent-child relationships, and youth aggressive behavior in adolescents at great risk for future interpersonal violence. Data came from 72 parents and their adolescents (aged 12 to 17 years, 89% African American), who presented to an emergency department for youth's assault-related injuries. Analyses revealed an association between parents' and youth's attitudes toward fighting. Youth's and parents' attitudes were positively correlated with aggressive behavior, fighting, and school suspension. Parents' attitudes predicted youth's aggressive behavior, even after controlling for youth's attitudes. The findings suggest that interventions for high-risk youth should target the fighting-related attitudes of both parents and youth.     

Roads diverged: An examination of violent and nonviolent pathways in the aftermath of the Bosnian war*

Despite renewed interest among criminologists in war and genocide, still understudied are the implications of mass violence for human development and behavior over the life course. By drawing on detailed life history data gathered from 55 male Bosnian refugees and nationals, in this work, I examine the shared beginnings of men who experienced the Bosnian war and genocide (1992–1995) in their youth, as well as examine their divergent pathways over time and across two distinct postwar contexts. My findings reveal that violent pathways are shaped by the confluence of social–psychological mechanisms (e.g., the normalization of violence) and exogenous risk factors (e.g., family disruption and loss of male role models). Compared with nonviolent men, who emphasize themes of catharsis and resilience, and the emulation of prosocial models of masculinity, violent men's narratives are distinguished by themes of persecution and exile, the emulation of violent role models, and contextual barriers to attaining valued masculine identities. Beyond the experience of war, these findings have implications for understanding how early experiences of chronic violence and community disruption shape turning points and cultural frames over the life course, and they indicate that studies of violent pathways should grant greater primacy to the social–historical context and the meaning individuals ascribe to their experiences.