Policy makers,policy choices,and policy outcomes: The political economy of reform in developing countries

This article presents an analytic model for understanding the role of decision makers in bringing about significant policy and institutional changes and in understanding how processes of agenda setting, decision making, and implementation shape the content, timing, and sustainability of reform initiatives. Central to the model is the assertion that policy elites and the policy making process are important determinants of reform. The framework indicates that circumstances surrounding issue formation, the criteria that decision makers use to select among options, and the characteristics of specific policies are analytic categories that explain a considerable amount about reform outcomes. The model is based on cases developed by participants in twelve initiatives to bring about policy and institutional change in a variety of developing countries.     

The effect of predatory rent-seeking on household saving and portfolio choices: A cross section analysis

The existence of predatory behavior, when measured by the number of lawyers per capita and the crime rate, seems to have an impact on saving and investment behavior in U.S. households. Where the risk of redistribution are lowest, the incentives to save are higher and, a fortiriori, the willingness to invest in highly vulnerable financial instruments is enhanced. Either because of low saving rates or because of disintermediation, households in states where the risks of redistribution are greater avoid accumulating financial assets.Recent years have seen a considerable decline in the U.S. saving rate. There is also evidence of large differences in saving rates from one country to another, with U.S. households among the lowest savers. Yet not all of these variations have been explained satisfactorily in empirical studies based on conventional theory. Perhaps one explanation which has been inadequately studied is the reduced expected retirement time horizon whether it be due to objective conditions such as retirement age and life expectancy or to uncertainty. Some reasons for myopic planning horizons are macroeconomic instability (McCauley and Zimer, 1989), the possibility of nuclear war (Slemrod, 1982, 1986 and 1989); Henderschott and Peek, 1985 and 1987); and the fear of socio-political conflict (Stewart and Venieris, 1985). I have suggested and tested here yet another factor: the fear of future redistribution. Using differences in interest income across U.S. states, this paper shows that fear of redistribution does seem to have a large influence on saving behavior.     

State institutions, political power and social policy choices: Reconstructing the origins of Nordic models of social policy

Abstract.  The origins of the Nordic social policy model(s) need to be viewed broadly and historically from its late nineteenth-century initiation to the immediate postwar period (1940s to the early 1960s), when a social democratic model began to consolidate. In reference to the alternate social policy traditions of British poor relief and German occupational insurance, this article analyzes the sociopolitical contexts that finally prevented Scandinavian states from developing similarly, instead enabling development of universalistic social policy. The historical narratives are arranged with respect to four analytical aspects: policy development; the configuration of state institutions; the strength of liberal, conservative and leftist power blocs; and intra-Nordic divergence in all these respects. Such an approach integrates state-centred and power-resources-focused analyses of Nordic welfare.     

The effects of administrative linkages on implementation: Welfare policy in Israel

This article focuses on the interaction between local-national relations and the implementation of welfare policy in Israel. It studies the administrative linkages between different levels of governmental jurisdictions involved in the implementing of certain policies of the Ministry of Welfare. It seeks to understand their impact on the original goals and programs of the national government and on actual services provided at the municipal level. These linkages include the arrangements for provision, funding, employment, regulations, and inspection. Without denying the importance of other explanations, the article emphasizes the significance of administrative linkages for understanding welfare policy and practices. In effect, the present study evaluates the extent to which the administrative linkages enable the national government to implement its policies on the one hand, and local authorities to influence national policies and programs on the other.The findings and analysis of administrative linkages suggest four conclusions. First contrary to Government policy the welfare system involving the Ministry, local municipalities and their agencies, is very inegalitarian; services are neither uniform nor adjusted to need. Second, the administrative linkages maximize local output and undermine the ability of the Ministry to implement its policies. Third, it is questionable whether the Israeli government can use its present Welfare Ministry to cope with major aspects of the problem. Fourth, it appears that the operations of the Israeli Welfare Ministry system are more similar to the federal than unitary model.     

The effects of negotiation democracy: A comparative analysis

Abstract. To what extent are variations in public attitudes and outcomes of social/economic policies caused by institutions like consociational democracy, corporatism and regimes of veto players? In dealing with this question, this paper starts from a critical review of Arend Lijphart's argument in Patterns of Democracy that consensus democracies are better, kinder and gentler democracies. I agree that consociational democracy, corporatism, and regimes with veto players have different effects on attitudes and policy outcomes – even after controlling for effects of political power distribution, as well as domestic and international contexts of policymaking. However, consociational democracy is not a 'better, gentler and kinder' democracy, though neither is it worse than majoritarian democracy in governing societies. Corporatism is efficient in reducing unemployment and inflation, and in expanding public receipts and the reach of the welfare state. Finally, regimes of veto players constrain expansion of public receipts. This analysis is based on data covering 22 OECD countries, 1971–1996.     

Public Policy and Legitimacy: A historical policy analysis of the interplay of public policy and legitimacy

This article explores the interplay of local government policy and legitimacy from a broad postpositivist perspective where historical accounts and narratives are used in a complementary fashion. The basic assumption is that legitimacy is the product of satisfying felt needs and solving perceived problems. Health and social malaise problems and related policies of the past 120 years are analyzed in 50 Swedish municipalities. The analysis indicates that municipality policies respond to local problems only partly. Generally, local government policies responded dynamically to 'objective’ and perceived problems before the 1970s, but did not resolve the problems. Today’s legitimacy crisis could, to some extent, be explained by the discrepancy between high expectations created in the policy discourse and the central and local government’s incapacity to offer sustainable solutions to ongoing problems. It is suggested that if history is considered more seriously in public policy making it could help policy makers and citizens readjust expectations, illuminate the limits and prospects for public policy, and identify ways to restore legitimacy. Moreover, legitimacy could be restored if more realistic policies are worked out and if a new division of power between the levels of government is introduced.     

Turnout in Germany in the course of time: Life cycle and cohort effects on electoral turnout from 1953 to 2049

The steadily rising share of older voters could lead to them gaining an ever increasing level of political representation compared to younger voters not only because of the imbalance of numbers between the young and the old, but also because turnout rates among the old have always been above-average. The latter argument only applies if the so-called life cycle effect is assumed to be dominant. However, diverse socialisation backgrounds, captured by the cohort effect, also have to be taken into account. It is also unclear what the interplay of these two effects of time implies for future aggregate turnout. Focusing on the German case, we base our analyses on the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (Representative Electoral Statistic, RES) and population forecasts to estimate consequences of the demographic shifts for all federal elections from 1953 until today, as well as for future elections. First, we calculate life cycle, cohort and period effects on turnout for previous elections by using cohort analysis; second, we apply these net effects to the future age distribution under certain assumptions concerning life cycle and cohort effects. Our results show that the recent decline in turnout is in particular due to negative period effects and (in West Germany) to a minor extent also due to consequences of cohort replacement, whereas changes in the age structure have had a positive effect on turnout since 1990 in both parts of Germany. Additionally, our forecasts suggest that turnout rates will decline and that the over-representation of the old will continue until around 2030 and diminish afterwards in a 'greying' population.     

Citizen participation and judgment in policy analysis: A case study of urban air quality policy

The emphasis currently placed on citizen participation in planning results in part from the recognition that planning requires judgments that have both value and technical components. This article describes a case study of a citizen participation process in which planners' judgments, rather than the judgments of the members of a citizens' task force, seemed to dictate the outcome. Although citizens were supposed to be influential in the policy analysis, they were, in effect, excluded from a meaningful role in the process. The analysis was actually guided by planners' supposedly technical judgments. Those judgments had important value implications, however, and those implications were not made clear to the citizens' task force. Examples are given of judgments made by planners at each stage of the analysis and the value components of those judgments are discussed. In each example, the judgments resulted in elimination of alternatives, selection of information, or integration of information. Two examples of methods of citizen participation which can increase the influence of citizens' judgments are also described.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

The effects of campaign spending on electoral outcomes: A data envelopment analysis

Data envelopment analysis is used to analyze the efficiency of candidate campaign spending. Analysis of the measured efficiency scores of the incumbents and challengers shows that there are significant systematic effects of both district and candidate characteristics. The incumbent's residuals from the efficiency score regressions indicate those candidates who do well because of the nature of their district and those who do well because of their own abilities. Incumbents are ranked according to their observed efficiency, their unobserved efficiency and their vote share. Correlations among the rankings are significant and of the expected signs. More efficient candidates receive higher vote shares.     

The application of venture analysis to public policy decisions: A case study of photovoltaics

Venture analysis is a group of analytical techniques normally used by the private sector to assist in major capital decisions. The approach can be applied to public policy decisions in those cases where changing private sector investment decisions are the central focus. A case study concerning a temporary subsidy to an emerging energy technology is reviewed. Major strengths of the approach are its use of numerous data- and opinion-gathering techniques and its explicit treatment of market and supply uncertainties. The major weakness is its lack of ability to handle those social costs and benefits for which no market exists. Implications for other policy studies are also presented.     

Governance modes,policy regimes and operational plans: A multi-level nested model of policy instrument choice and policy design

Policy goals and means exist at different levels of abstraction and application and policies can be seen to be comprised of a number of components or elements, not all of which are as amenable to (re)design as others. Defining and thinking about polices and policy-making in this way is very useful because it highlights how policy design is all about the effort to match goals and instruments both within and across categories. That is, successful policy design requires (1) that policy aims, objectives, and targets be coherent; (2) that implementation preferences, policy tools and tool calibrations should also be consistent; and (3) that policy aims and implementation preferences; policy objectives, and policy tools; and policy targets and tool calibrations, should also be congruent and convergent. Policy instrument choices can thus be seen to result from a nested or embedded relationship within a larger framework of established governance modes and policy regime logics. In this contextual model, the range of choices left at the level of concrete targeted policy instrument calibrations—the typical subject of policy tool analysis—is restricted by the kinds of decisions made about policy objectives and the appropriate tools to attain them, and both of these, in turn, by the kind of choices made at the highest level setting out general policy aims and implementation preferences.

The mission of public policy programs: A report on recent experience

This is the report of a meeting on graduate training and research programs in public policy organized by the Ford Foundation on September 10, 1975. The meeting was attended by various representatives of the Ford Foundation along with the following representatives of public policy schools: Graham Allison, Professor, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; William B. Cannon, Former Dean, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas; John P. Crecine, Former Professor, Institute of Public Policy Studies, University of Michigan; Otto A. Davis, Dean, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University; Joel L. Fleishman, Director, Institute of Policy Sciences and Public Affairs, Duke University; Edward K. Hamilton, Professor, Program in Public Management, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University; Donald E. Stokes, Dean, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University; Aaron Wildavsky, Dean, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of California (Berkeley); Charles Wolf, Jr., Head of Economics Department, and Director of Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, The Rand Corporation; Douglas T. Yates, Jr., Associate Dean, School of Organization and Management, Yale University.The author acted as the rapporteur of the meeting and offers the following account with the permission of those whose views and experience are directly represented. The author owes a special acknowledgement to Peter Bell of the Ford Foundation who made many useful comments on the original account and saved the author from numerous factual errors.     

Understanding the historical turn in the policy sciences: A critique of stochastic, narrative, path dependency and process-sequencing models of policy-making over time

This article evaluates four general models of historical change processes which have emerged in various fields in the social sciences – namely stochastic, historical narrative, path dependency and process sequencing – and their application to the study of public policy-making. The article sets out and assesses the merits and evidence for each, both in general social research and in the policy sciences. The article suggests that more work needs to be done examining the assumptions and presuppositions of each model before it can be concluded that any represents the general case in policy processes. However, since neither the irreversible linear reality assumed by narrative models, nor the random and chaotic world assumed by stochastic models, nor the contingent turning points and irreversible trajectories required of the path dependency model are found very often in policy-making, these models are likely to remain less significant than process-sequencing models in describing the overall general pattern of policy dynamics.     

The state in industrial relations: A cross-national analysis of developments and socioeconomic effects

Abstract This is a comparative study of the three main roles of the state in industrial relations: the state as employer in the public sector, state intervention in private–sector–wage bargaining, and the procedural role of defining a legal framework for industrial relations. Based on data from 20 OECD countries, the article's analytical focus is twofold. For each of these roles, the paper examines whether there is a convergence towards neoliberal regulation in response to the shift from demand–side to supply–side policies, and whether neoliberalism is superior to alternative regulation forms in terms of performance. No evidence of such dominance of neoliberalism can be found. The upshot is that developments of state regulation are as much path–dependent as its socioeconomic effects are contingent on a country's context.     

Federal health care policy and the geographic diffusion of physicians: A macro-scale analysis

The federal government passed legislation in the 1960's and 70's to increase physician supplies and reduce spatial inequalities in access to physicians. A major policy was to aggressively continue increasing the overall supply of physicians on the assumption that market forces would eventually divert physicians from areas of high physician density to those of low density. Using state-level, annual data collected over a 21-year period, this paper investigates the macro-scale spatial diffusion of physicians as an essential element in evaluating this policy. The results provide evidence of the policy impacting locational trends relating to primary care physicians, but not specialists. They also indicate that the Medicaid/Medicare programs may have adversely affected the maldistribution problem.