Friends in high places: The wealth effects of JFK's assassination on the assets of LBJ's supporters

This paper uses anecdotal evidence to identify a group of firms that had significant ties to President Lyndon Johnson and determines the effect of Johnson's unexpected rise to the Presidency on the market value of these firms. The unexpected nature of President Kennedy's death eliminates the confounding event problem typically associated with election results. We are able to identify four separate portfolios of firms that had political ties to Lyndon Johnson. Our research suggests that the market expected significant benefits to accrue to these firms as a result of Johnson's becoming President. When Catholic John Kennedy and Johnson were running together in 1960 a joke hop-scotched around the parties in Texas and Washington that Kennedy had told Johnson, “Lyndon, when we get elected I'm going to dig a tunnel to the Vatican,” and Lyndon had replied, “That's OK with me as long as Brown & Root gets the contract” (Dugger, 1982: 286).     

Sampling CIA's New Document Retrieval System: McCone Telephone Conversations during the Six Crises Tempest

Documents recently made available at the National Archives by the CIA are accessed through non-traditional archival means: researchers use keywords at computers to obtain them. Most of the documents will be uninteresting or worthless to scholars. Some add important or colorful details to our knowledge of the Agency. An example is a small set of documents detailing 1962 telephone conversations of DCI John McCone with President Kennedy, former DCI Dulles, and former Vice President Nixon about the latter's best-selling book Six Crises, which charged Kennedy with having acted unscrupulously as a presidential candidate in 1960 by advocating covert action against Cuba.     

Youth bulges,insurrections and labor-market restrictions

This paper analyzes the link between large youth cohorts and violent conflicts when labor-market restrictions are present. Such restrictions are expected to limit the youth cohort’s access to income opportunities in the formal economy, and thus lower the youth-specific opportunity cost of insurrection activities. We develop a theoretical model of insurrection markets and integrate the youth cohort’s relative size. In equilibrium, a binding labor-market constraint interacts with the youth bulge in determining the level of insurrection activities within the society. We test the implications of our model on a sample of 135 non-OECD countries in the post-Cold War period and find the effect of the youth cohort’s relative size on conflict onsets to be moderated by changes in the labor-market conditions as measured by unemployment rates. Generally, the results provide evidence that the underlying institutional setting shapes the conflict potential inherent in a given demographic structure.     

Generation effects? Evolution of independence–unification views in Taiwan, 1996–2016

The landslide victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan's 2016 presidential and legislative elections is often interpreted as a persistent swing in attitudes toward cross-strait relations and Taiwan independence. Popular as this interpretation may be, it still runs the risk of mistaking a short-term reaction to a lame duck president's policy performance for a long-term change in attitudes.This study analyzes the evolution of independence–unification (IU) views in the Taiwan population from 1996 to 2016. After reviewing the literature on political generations in Taiwan, I hypothesize that a long-term cohort succession replacing older prounification generations accounted for the evolution toward proindependence views. By pooling six independent face-to-face surveys into repeated cross-sectional data, this study applies a comprehensive multilevel cross-classified random-effect model of age–period–cohort analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation results confirm that, besides age and period effects, younger cohorts and the 1999 Taiwan-centered high school curriculum have had significant effects on the change in trends in IU views.     

Reading the Riot Act: The Schlesinger Report, 1971

The difficulty of satisfying competing needs of both national and sub-national officials and commanders for intelligence support capabilities that are too sensitive and expensive to duplicate for both sets of requirements emerged with the growth of industrial-scale imagery and signals intelligence assets and production during the Cold War. The literature of intelligence history and intelligence studies covers the symptoms of this problem, but says less a rigorous and well-documented nature on its causes. Thanks to recent declassifications in the United States, however, we can now read key documents in an American attempt to understand and deal with the dilemma. A study prepared for President Richard Nixon in 1971 and now dubbed the ‘Schlesinger Report’ has been published virtually intact by the US Department of State. In addition, the Central Intelligence Agency has released two official histories which indirectly have added significant detail to the story. With these new releases, it is now possible to explain the genesis of the Report and chart its effects through the remainder of President Nixon's presidency. The Schlesinger Report marked a watershed for the intelligence community, helping the Nixon Administration to conceive and enact reforms that were both consequential in themselves and presaged the findings of later surveys and inquiries. A better understanding of the Report's background, text, and results can shed light not only the policymaking process in the Nixon Administration but also the trajectory of the intelligence community – and of foreign intelligence establishments that may, in some respects, be following in its path.     

Violence and/or Nonviolence in the Success of the Civil Rights Movement: The Malcolm X–Martin Luther King,Jr. Nexus

Nonviolent mass protests are often considered as having been mainly responsible for the two major legislative gains of the Civil Rights Movement half a century ago—the 1964 Civil Rights Act (CRA) and the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA). In this article, I argue that it was the combination of that course and the threat of violence on the part of African Americans that fully explain those two victories. A close reading of the texts and actions of Martin Luther King, Jr. and Malcolm X is indispensable for my claim. The archival evidence, as well, makes a convincing case for the CRA, its proposal by the John F. Kennedy (JFK) administration and enactment by Congress. For the VRA, its proposal by the Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) administration and enactment by Congress, the evidence is more circumstantial but still compelling. The evidence reveals that for the threat of violence to have been credible, actual violence was required, as events in Birmingham, Alabama, demonstrate. Such violence, the “long hot summers” of the 1960s that began with Birmingham, probably aided and abetted subsequent civil rights gains—a story that has potential lessons for today’s struggles for social equality.     

Questioning generational replacement. An age,period and cohort analysis of electoral volatility in the Netherlands, 1971–2010

Political behavior has been changing all over Western Europe and electoral volatility is one of the facets of politics in which this change is apparent. Theories on stabilization of political attitudes and behavior in lifetime and the slow rate at which change in the electoral arena is found to proceed, have led to the assumption of generational replacement as the mechanism driving change. The Netherlands, however, provide a remarkably different case of this trend in electoral volatility. The country has shifted from an example of how cleavages stabilize politics to one of the most electorally volatile countries in Europe. The Dutch surge in electoral volatility thus contrasts with expectations of a slow process driven by generational replacement. Starting from this apparent contradiction between the evolution of volatility in the Netherlands and theories on generational replacement, this article investigates time effects of electoral volatility. The study is based on an age, period and cohort analysis on the repeated cross-sectional data of the Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies, 1971–2010. Based on characteristics of such repeated cross-sectional data, individuals are cross-classified in birth cohorts and election years respectively, which overcomes the identification problem inherent in cohort analyses. Results of a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) indicate that, contrary to the hypothesis of new generations causing the increase in volatility, the Dutch change can be attributed primarily to period effects. As such, the analyses indicate that a general shift in the Dutch electorate has caused the growth in volatility and that supply-side factors should probably be analyzed when trying to explain electoral volatility.     

Socialization, Life Course, and Ideological Involvement

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of political socialization and life course on the ideological involvement of two cohorts of Norwegian men. Our main thesis is that socialization in a period dominated by political and social conflicts will produce a higher level of ideological involvement than socialization in a period with a low level of political and social conflicts. But the higher level of ideological involvement can be modified by the life course experiences of the cohorts. We are only able to discuss some aspects of this rather general thesis in this article, comparing two cohorts born in 1912 and 1932.     

War,democratization, and generational cohort effects on participation in Japan

Studies show that both democratization and war mobilization boost levels of participation enduringly among members of the generational cohort that come of age around the time. But little is known about the relative effects of war mobilization and democratization on long-term participation rates among impressionable generations that experience both. We address this question by examining generational cohort effects by gender, drawing on newly available data on the case of Japan. Age-period-cohort analyses of the Survey on Japanese Value Orientations (1973–2013) show that the increase in lifelong participation rates of the “war generation” over prewar generations was much greater for men than for women, thus suggesting that the high rates of participation among members of this cohort are driven more by mobilization than by democratization. This finding yields significant implications for the analysis of democratic consolidation in different parts of the world.     

Modes of participation over the adult life span

Sidney Verba and Norman Nie, in their 1972 workParticipation in America, advance the notion that political participation is not unidimensional, but is comprised of different modes. In recent years, the availability of panel and cross-sectional time series data has led to greater interest in the temporal dimension of political participation. Using data from nine American National Election Studies, we confirm the Verba and Nie findings with respect to voting and campaign participation and expand upon them. We examine the factor structure of indicators used in composite indices of voting and campaign participation and find that the structure of participation is stable across age groups, cohorts, and periods, confirming that composite indices of voting and campaign participation are not confounded by age, cohort, or period effects.This study was supported by grants from the Wayne State University Graduate School and the National Institute on Aging (NIA 5 AG06344-02).     

Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.     

The Long March Through Whitehall: A Comment on Lowe and Pemberton,The Official History of the British Civil Service,Volume II: 1982–1997

The Thatcher‐Major ‘permanent revolution’ massively changed the British civil service and Whitehall. The political clout provided by strong prime ministerial backing was a key factor in sustaining the momentum of change over the 1980s and 1990s. The process of change developed piecemeal, in a step‐by‐step and, in some ways, even haphazard fashion, with ‘New Right’ ideology just one factor. Economic and financial constraints were important in driving and sustaining the Whitehall efficiency drives and managerial reforms of the period. Support from managerially minded insiders and skilful prime ministerial businessmen advisers brought in from outside were also crucial. In contrast, the Johnson government's approach to civil service reform may be self‐defeating if it creates too much instability and needless strife, rather than building on ideas and building up support at different levels from within Whitehall itself.     

The lasting impact of adolescence on left-right identification: Cohort replacement and intracohort change in associations with issue attitudes

This study examined how the ideological correlates of left-right identification in the Netherlands changed between 1980 and 2008, and whether these changes were driven by cohort replacement. Analyses on repeated cross-sectional data revealed an increasing association with immigration and a decreasing association with redistribution, secularism, and civil liberties. Cohort differences were found for cultural attitudes: Secularism was most important for voters who were adolescent between 1917 and 1960, while civil liberties were most important for the 1960–1980 cohort and immigration was relatively important for the 1980–2008 cohort. Consequently, over-time changes in the importance of cultural issues, but not redistribution, were partly driven by cohort replacement. This indicates that the left-right distinction is partly shaped by circumstances during voters' adolescent years.     

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status

This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those in the top half of the earnings distribution would be expected to live only 1.2 years more than those in the bottom half. The life expectancy estimates in this article represent one possible outcome under one set of assumptions. These projections should not be regarded as an accurate depiction of the future. Specifically, this study adopts a simple projection method in which differentials are assumed to follow the pattern observed over the last 30 years of the 20th century for the first 30 years of the 21st century. This assumption lacks theoretical underpinnings because the causes of the widening differentials observed over the past 30 years have not been determined. On the one hand, if the trend of widening mortality differentials by year of birth observed over the past 30 years does not continue, the projection method used in this analysis could lead to an overestimation of future differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups. On the other hand, if mortality differentials do not narrow by age as observed in the past, the projection method used could lead to an underestimation of the differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups aged 60 or older.     

Of Time and the Development of Partisan Polarization

In this article we address the topic of increasing partisan polarization in the American mass public, focusing on the twin influences of individual-level development and cohort replacement and the interaction between the two. We posit a model of individual development that consists of declining openness to change beyond young adulthood, an increase in party-issue constraint as age advances, and cohort-specific responsiveness to changes in the partisan environment. Results from a long-term panel study provide initial evidence of these dynamics. We then use simulations to generate expectations about how these developmental processes play out across cohorts, issues, and time. These expectations are evaluated through a cohort analysis of National Election Studies data from 1972 to 2004. Overall, our results provide a new perspective on the dynamics of individual political development and their implications for the timing, extent, and future trajectory of partisan polarization in the U.S. electorate.     

Be there or be square – The impact of participation and performance in the 2017 Dutch TV debates and its coverage on voting behaviour

TV debates are often seen as the most important events that provide the electorate with information about leading candidates and key issues during electoral campaigns. Research provides evidence for various debate effects, showing both a direct and indirect influence on voting decisions. There is, however, only scant evidence on the relative impact of TV debates when examining these effects at the same time. To fill this gap, our study aims to analyse whether and to what extent a candidate's participation in a debate, their performance in the debate or the related media coverage influence the electorate when examined simultaneously. We consider the case of the 2017 Dutch general elections, which offers an almost ideal setting due to the broadcast of several TV debates of different formats and candidate compositions throughout the campaign period. To distinguish the effects of single debates, we use original Dutch panel survey data. We find a weak overall influence of the debates; the most significant effects are decreasing vote intentions for the two main competitors (VVD and PVV) after both candidates refused to participate in the first TV debate, and a ‘winner-effect’ for one of the two main candidates in a head-to-head debate.     

Counter-Reform in the American Welfare State: Ideas,Institutions, and Progressive Taxation

The Nixon/Ford years were a pivotal period when severe fiscal problems emerged whose resolutions constrained the ambit of social policy afterward. A shared diagnosis of economic challenges produced divergent effects in the electoral fortunes of the major political parties and set the stage for an upward redistribution of wealth. Horizontal equity became synonymous with overall tax equity. This article examines how economic ideas acquire political traction.     

Race,Representation, and the Voting Rights Act

Despite wide scholarly interest in the Voting Rights Act, surprisingly little is known about how its specific provisions affected Black political representation. In this article, we draw on theories of electoral accountability to evaluate the effect of Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, the preclearance provision, on the representation of Black interests in the 86th to 105th congresses. We find that members of Congress who represented jurisdictions subject to the preclearance requirement were substantially more supportive of civil rights–related legislation than legislators who did not represent covered jurisdictions. Moreover, we report that the effects were stronger when Black voters composed larger portions of the electorate and in more competitive districts. This result is robust to a wide range of model specifications and empirical strategies, and it persists over the entire time period under study. Our findings have especially important implications given the Supreme Court's recent decision in Shelby County v. Holder.     

Democratization,civil society,and women's organizing in post-revolutionary Mozambique and Nicaragua

Mozambique and Nicaragua have each experienced a transition from a Marxist–Leninist, revolutionary state to a liberal–democratic–capitalist, multi-party state in the 1990s. However, in Mozambique, the historic party of the revolution, FRELIMO, remains the party in power, whil in Nicaragua the Sandinistas have been the opposition party since 1990. What impact have these transitions had on democracy, civil society, and the nature of women's organizing in the post-revolutionary period in each country? This article offers a critical examination of the notions of “democratization” and “civil society” by assessing the gains and losses that each country has experienced in terms of political, economic, and participatory democracy in the post-revolutionary period. Then, using the example of contemporary women's movements and current constructions of “feminism” emerging in each country, this article attempts to show the potential of autonomous women's organizing in civil society today.     

Projecting retirement income of future retirees with panel data: results from the modeling income in the near-term (MINT) project

Cross-sectional data capture only a point in time and miss individual changes in earnings, labor force participation, marriage, fertility, and health. Because panel data follow individuals over time, they do not have this problem. The problems or concerns with cross-sectional data may be compounded when these data are used to make projections. Iams and Sandell (1997) found that using panel data on earnings explained much more variation in future earnings than using cross-sectional survey data. Panel data are also needed to estimate Social Security benefits, especially for women. Because of auxiliary benefits paid to spouses, ex-spouses, and widow(er)s of entitled workers, an individual's Social Security retirement benefit depends not only on his or her earnings history, but also on his or her marital history and the earnings histories of current and previous spouses. When we compare projected unreduced Social Security benefits with what they would be if we didn't have marital history or earnings history data for men, we find that: Benefits computed using only earnings histories are not very different from benefits computed using both earnings and marital histories. Benefits computed using only current earnings and marital histories underestimate benefits for those in earlier birth cohorts and overestimate benefits for those in the most recent birth cohort. Benefits computed without either marital or earnings histories underestimate benefits for all birth cohorts, but by much more for earlier cohorts than for more recent cohorts. For women we find that benefits computed without marital or earnings histories underestimate benefits in all birth cohorts. The largest differences are for women in earlier birth cohorts. Using both marital and earnings histories to estimate unreduced Social Security benefits, we find that men are projected to continue receiving higher benefits than women, although the gap is expected to narrow as the baby boomers near retirement age. We also look at the composition of projected total income available at retirement for those with incomes in the 45th-55th percentiles of the income distribution and find that: Total income at retirement is projected to be larger for men than for women in every birth cohort. Women are projected to receive the largest share of their total income from Social Security benefits. Men are projected to receive the largest share of their total income from other income sources, although this share declines as the baby boomers near retirement age.