By-elections,changing fortunes,uncertainty and the mid-term blues

If voters care about the size of the government's majority, then by-election votes should exaggerate national swings. Moreover, if there is uncertainty about the outcome of the general election and if voters” preferences are skewed in such a way as to give more weight to the “downside” outcome (least favourite party wins) than the “upside” (favoured party wins with a larger than preferred majority), then there will be a systematic tendency for governments to lose by-elections, regardless of any changes in national support. These predictions go beyond those generated by conventional explanations. The theory is successfully tested against data from 383 post-War elections.     

The changing geography of metropolitan opportunity: The segregation of the poor in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1970 to 1990

Abstract

This analysis uses census tract data to measure the segregation of the poor in U.S. metropolitan areas in 1970, 1980, and 1990. Two measures of segregation are used: the indices of dissimilarity and isolation.

In 1990 the mean dissimilarity of the poor in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas was 36.1, which is substantial but below the 60.6 dissimilarity of blacks. The 1990 isolation of the poor was 21.0. From 1970 to 1990, the dissimilarity of the poor increased by 11 percent, and the isolation of the poor rose by 9 percent; in contrast, racial segregation declined. Exploratory regression analyses reveal that income segregation in metropolitan areas was significantly greater in 1990 and increased more from 1970 to 1990 in the Northeast than in the South and West. Midwest areas generally were not significantly different from Northeast areas in 1990 segregation levels or in changes from 1970 to 1990.     

Punishment,reward and the fortunes of states

Existing theories explain the rise and fall of states either by random factors specific to each state or by a life cycle to which any state eventually succumbs. However, neither approach is able to explain systematic patterns such as the tendency toward smaller political units during the millennium from 400 to 1400 A.D. and the movement in the opposite direction over the last six centuries. Here it is argued that such changes are due to innovations in the technology of information processing and military control that alter the cost of generating rewards and imposing punishment.I would like to thank Jean Tirole, Gordon Tullock and Mancur Olson for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Spatial distribution of population in the metropolitan area of Mexico City, 1950-1990

"This study explores how the spatial distribution of population in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City (MAMC) has changed between 1950 and 1990. First of all it presents the structural concepts of this research, and then analyzes the growth and spatial distribution of the MAMC population.... The results of this study indicate that MAMC: (i) continues to decrease in its central areas, (ii) presents a process of home location with expanding waves and moments of consolidation, (iii) has a many-centered metropolitan structure, and (iv) the dominating center separates progressively from the traditional center and is already located in the State of Mexico." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Infant and child mortality in Mexico,estimated using the 1980 and 1990 censuses and projections to 2000

Using indirect methods based on information about live births and surviving children, the author reviews estimates of infant and child mortality in Mexico. Data are from the 1980 and 1990 censuses.     

Financing Arlington County, Virginia's Capital Programs: The Experience of the 1980s, The Outlook for the 1990s

County governments in the 1970s had few responsibilities beyond the courts and jail functions. Now, due to large suburban growth in the 1980s, county governments will find themselves immersed in capital financing issues. Arlington County, Virginia, is the setting of this article on the effects of major financings in the 1980s on a county government in the 1990s.     

Understanding the changing role of public sector performance measurement in less developed countries

This article develops a framework for understanding changes in the demand for and supply of performance information in public sector organizations in less developed countries (LDCs). New Institutional Sociology (NIS) is used to argue that pressures from specific stakeholders stimulate organizations to produce particular performance information. The article distinguishes three groups of stakeholders (i.e. funding bodies, statutory boards and purchasers), and elaborates on the performance dimensions these stakeholders are interested in. The group of funding bodies, with their interest in financial performance information, used to be the most important group of stakeholders. However, statutory boards and purchasers are gaining importance as a result of recent public sector reforms, which include decentralization, marketization and the implementation of anti‐corruption programs. As a consequence of pressures coming from these stakeholders, new performance dimensions, such as the quality and quantity of services and the political governance structure, will be added to organizations' performance measurement (PM) systems. Whether these and other—often more traditional financial—performance dimensions will be balanced and integrated throughout organizations depends on the power positions of the various stakeholders. The arguments presented in this article intend to stimulate public sector organizations in LDCs to design and redesign PM systems as a response to changing stakeholder interests. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

20世纪八九十年代台湾少数民族政治运动初探

20世纪80年代的台湾,受各种政治因素的影响,国民党当局的统治受到严重冲击,被迫进行"本土化"、"民主化"的政治革新,台湾少数民族政治运动由此兴起.在党外反对势力支持下,台湾少数民族政治运动围绕"正名"、"还我土地"、"自治"三大诉求,向国民党当局抗争维权,这一运动到20世纪90年代末逐渐走向消沉,其原因值得深思.台湾少数民族政治运动虽然历时短暂,却在台湾政治运动史上占有重要地位.     

An innovative approach to metropolitan management in the philippines

The paper describes the historical development of metropolitan planning and administration in Metro Manila, and identifies five major problems: the sectoral isolation of planning; the inadequate involvement of local government; inadequacies in planning methods; weaknesses in the system of resource management; and institutional fragmentation. The development of the Capital Investment Folio process, its institutional framework and the main characteristics and results of applying the approach are described. The benefits and lessons which have emerged are then set out and their possible application elsewhere discussed. The main achievements of CIF are progress towards a rational system of urban planning; the generation of consensus within government about Manila's investment strategy; a more widespread appreciation of opportunity costs; and a new understanding of how to plan under conditions of uncertainty. It remains for CIF to be integrated into the national resource allocation process, and to be fully accepted by national government agencies. Local government still needs to be positively involved in the planning process.     

Challenges to established parties: The effects of party system features on the electoral fortunes of anti-political-establishment parties

Abstract. The rise of parties that challenge the political establishment has recently sparked the interest of political scientists. Scholars have identified several factors that lie behind the success of such anti-political-establishment parties. Most empirical studies, however, have concentrated their attention either on the importance of electoral system features or on the effects of socioeconomic conditions. This article focuses instead on the role that party system factors play in the electoral success of these parties. Using three data sets from studies conducted in three different time periods it tests two seemingly contradictory hypotheses. On the one hand, the claim that where the established parties have converged toward centrist positions and thus fail to present voters with an identity that is noticeably different from their established competitors, the electorate will be more susceptible to the markedly different policies put forward by anti-political-establishment parties. On the other hand, there is the argument that these parties profit more from increasing polarization and the subsequent enlargement of the political space than from a convergence toward the median. The results of the analyses show that anti-political-establishment parties generally profit from a close positioning of the establishment parties on the left-right scale. However, there is no consistent support for the notion that party system polarization by itself is associated with an increase in the support for parties that challenge the political establishment.     

Avoidable causes of death and their effects on life expectancy. A socio-demographic interpretation. The case of the northern frontier, 1980-1990

"This study forms part of [a] research project on the health-disease-death process along the [Mexican] Northern Frontier--a by-product of the socio-economic structure of a specific social formation that determines disease and death--to support regional and sectorial design of policies and actions for the improvement of health conditions for its population.... An important finding is a 4.1 year increase of life expectancy due, among other causes, to a slight decrease in avoidable death causes, although these still produce about 50% of deaths." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Local government structure and the quality of minority neighborhoods

One of the most long-standing and controversial issues surrounding local government structure in the United States is how ??reformed?? political institutions have impacted minority neighborhoods. A common belief is that reformism has harmed these neighborhoods, but there is no empirical evidence on this issue. Drawing upon capital asset pricing theory, this paper empirically investigates the effects of two reforms, the council-manager form of government and at-large councilor elections, on the quality of nonwhite neighborhoods. Quality is found to be higher in majority white places with at-large as opposed to district-based elections. Quality is not found to be affected by the form of government.     

From natural to controlled fertility: Mexico, 1950-1980

Mexico's demographic transition was much later and more rapid than the classic transitions of European populations. A careful study of available data sources, especially fertility surveys, allows a detailed understanding of the reproductive process in Mexico, including the nuptiality patterns that influence fertility as well as changes in general and marital fertility. This work assesses the data sources and methods utilized to analyze Mexican fertility in the past, reviews fertility trends before the onset of the transition from about 1940-70, and describes the new reproductive patterns observed since about 1976. Fertility information from the decinnial censuses is not very adequate for measuring fertility levels or trends. Possible estimates based on census information are few and widely scattered in time, and omissions, underregistration, and faulty declarations are common because of the retrospective nature of the census. Census information is highly aggregated so that significant intermediate variables are not easy to assess. But census data are still the only source allowing estimations of fertility levels by areas of residence, administrative entities, and their social and economic characteristics. Mexico's vital statistics are of poor quality, with underregistration and late registration common. Evaluations of the Mexican Fertility Survey (EMF) of 1976-77 indicate that it provides more reliable estimates than the vital statistics or the census. The EMF and the National Demographic Survey (END) of 1982 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by 30.3% between 1974-80, from 6.27 to 4.37. Both the EMF and the END were national level surveys which collected complete fertility histories thus providing longitudinal information on the marital and fertility histories of women aged 15-49. This work uses primarily data from the EMF and END to analyze the period of fertility increase between 1940-60, the period of highest fertility between 1950-70, and the transition from a natural fertility regime to one of fertility control after 1970. The analysis contains 2 major parts, 1 presenting a study of general fertility including age specific rates for generations and periods, final family size of women terminating their childbearing, and the calendar of fertility for women still of fertile age. The 2nd major section focuses on marital fertility using the same indicators but taking into account the relationships between nuptiality and fertility. Comparisons are included between fertility levels based on the major surveys and those implied by the census and vital statistics data.     

The decline of older,inner suburbs in metropolitan America

Abstract

This article develops an index of suburban decline for 3,428 U.S. suburbs. The results of this index were used to measure the prevalence and extent of decline for older, inner suburbs and newer suburbs across the nation and in different regions from 1980 to 2000. The general pattern is one of decline in selected older, inner suburbs, especially those with housing built between 1950 and 1969 and those with increasing minority populations.

Regional analysis reveals that the South and the Midwest had the highest proportion of older, inner suburbs in crisis. Suburbs with housing built before 1939 emerged as areas of continuing affluence.     

The failure to learn from others: Vertical fiscal imbalance,centralisation, and Australia's metropolitan knowledge deficit

This paper questions the routes to knowledge of metropolitan governance elsewhere in the world and then explains how and why these are rendered more difficult in Australia. The paper begins with the policy literature on the exchange of knowledge relevant to metropolitan governance. The paper next explains the constitutional and fiscal backdrop to metropolitan governance in Australia; the ‘unique’ role of state governments in the funding, planning, and management of cities, and the powers adopted by the federal government that are made possible by vertical fiscal imbalance and funding conditionality. The paper then explores horizontal knowledge exchange of metropolitan governance in the form of transnational municipal networks, corporations, international organisations, and consultants. The final section of the paper considers the thesis that were Australia's cities to function independently, as metropolitan governments, the potential for knowledge exchange would be optimised. Knowledge of smart city technologies is used for case study purposes.     

Migrant workers in the metropolitan area of Monterrey

"In this article, an analysis is made of evidence regarding the metropolitan area of Monterrey, [Mexico]....[A] study carried out in 1965 is used as a point of reference, and information is analyzed for 1980 and 1983. In the first section of this article, a brief summary is provided of some of the recent contributions that have been made to the study of the profitability of internal migration. The second part is devoted to an analysis of the 1980 and 1983 surveys, focussing on the features distinguishing recent migratory workers and the rest of the work force...and on the factors determining income, with special interest in the category of migrants....Lastly, a summary of the main findings is presented." (SUMMARY IN ENG)