Single-Family Housing Market Segmentation,Post-Foreclosure Resale Duration,and Neighborhood Attributes

During the recent economic recession, the foreclosure crisis drew vast attention from scholars and policymakers. Numerous studies focused on factors resulting in foreclosures, the impact of foreclosures, and the relationship between neighborhood attributes and foreclosures. Fewer studies investigated the foreclosure resale mechanism by focusing on buyer characteristics and the market duration of foreclosed properties. This research uses foreclosed residential properties in Broward County, Florida, between 2007 and 2011 to explore how market segmentation by assessed value relates to time on market of foreclosed properties. This research finds that extremely low-value properties and very high-value properties generally take longer to sell. Mid-value properties take a shorter time to sell. After controlling for housing attributes and market segmentation, certain neighborhood characteristics, such as lower percentage black population, lower percentage Hispanic population, lower educational attainment, and higher homeownership rate, are associated with increased likelihood of a real estate owned property being sold. These results will help policymakers determine better strategies for the foreclosure resale process. Special attention should focus on properties taking longer to sell or not able to sell during certain time frames to alleviate the negative effects of these properties on neighborhoods.     

Preserving Neighborhood Opportunity: Where Federal Housing Subsidies Expire

Abstract

Rent burdens are increasing in U.S. metropolitan areas while subsidies on privately owned, publicly subsidized rental units are expiring. As a result, some of the few remaining affordable units in opportunity neighborhoods are at risk of being converted to market rate. Policy makers face a decision about whether to devote their efforts and scarce resources toward developing new affordable housing, recapitalizing existing subsidized housing, and/or preserving properties with expiring subsidies. There are several reasons to preserve these subsidies, one being that properties may be located in neighborhoods with greater opportunity. In this article, we use several sources of data at the census tract level to learn how subsidy expirations affect neighborhood opportunity for low-income households. Our analysis presents several key findings. First, we find that units that left the project-based Section 8 program were – on average – in lower opportunity neighborhoods, but these neighborhoods were improving. In addition, properties due to expiry from the Section 8 program between 2011 and 2020 are in higher opportunity neighborhoods than any other subsidy program. On the contrary, new Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) units were developed in tracts similar to those where LIHTC units are currently active, which tend to be lower opportunity neighborhoods.     

School Quality,Residential Choice,and the U.S. Housing Bubble

Using data from the American Housing Survey (years 2001–2009), we find that purchase prices for homes selected primarily to access self-identified “good schools” rose (relative to homes selected for other reasons) during the key U.S. housing bubble period, compared with the periods before and after the bubble. We observe a similar pattern in homebuyers' mortgage-to-income ratios. Various regression specifications and propensity score matching techniques show that these trends persist conditional on a range of household, demographic, and economic controls. Our results suggest that the strong, bubble-era pursuit of good schools may have played a role in the housing bubble's expansion.     

The Impact of Housing Submarkets and Urban Form on the Foreclosure Crisis in U.S. Urban Counties

In this article, the authors introduce a novel way to define and measure housing submarkets in relation to foreclosures. Instead of the traditional methods of identifying submarkets a priori, this study uses an approach that empirically delineates housing submarkets based on spatial contiguity and housing attributes. The spatial clustering algorithm developed for this study identified submarkets in each of the urban counties. A spatial regression model was then used to assess the impact of submarket structure on foreclosure rates. In addition, the study also incorporates a measure of sprawl in its analysis. It was found that sprawling counties are not more likely to have higher rates of foreclosures compared with average rates. However, the counties with smaller and more fragmented housing submarkets are likely to have lower rates of foreclosures. The results suggest that urban form is less consequential than housing market structure in affecting U.S. housing market dynamics.     

Household Energy Consumption and Housing Choice in the U.S. Residential Sector

Energy use in residential buildings accounted for 21% of U.S. CO₂ emissions in 2013. Efforts to reduce energy use in the residential sector have been overly focused on improving energy efficiency of buildings. This article incorporates housing policy debate into energy policy, hoping to provide new opportunities for planners to participate in residential energy policy. Using data from the latest Residential Energy Consumption Survey, structural equation modeling has been applied to isolate the direct and indirect effects of household and housing characteristics on residential energy use. Results show that more than 80% of a household's indirect effect on energy consumption happens through the building characteristics, which is characterized as the housing choice effect on energy consumption. Planners can participate in residential energy management efforts by influencing housing needs and priorities of communities towards more sustainable compact housing units.     

Tracking and Explaining Neighborhood Socioeconomic Change in U.S. Metropolitan Areas Between 1990 and 2010

This article addresses four fundamental questions about neighborhood change processes and outcomes among large U.S. metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2010: (a) Is it possible using census data and other secondary sources to come up with a consistent and robust method to measure gentrification and other forms of substantial neighborhood socioeconomic change (SNSEC) across all U.S. metropolitan areas? (b) To what degree are gentrification and other forms of SNSEC the result of metropolitan-scale economic and demographic forces versus more bottom-up and neighborhood-specific forces and dynamics? (c) To what degree are gentrification and other forms of SNSEC shaped by the actions of individual, and groups of, property owners, developers, and speculators versus the neighborhood service and location preferences of households? (d) To what extent are gentrification and other forms of substantial neighborhood change always accompanied by the displacement of existing residents?     

Squatting for Survival: Precarious Housing in a Declining U.S. City

Despite severely depressed property markets, housing in declining U.S. cities can be surprisingly unaffordable for poor residents. Yet the characteristics of decline, such as abundant vacant property and constrained economic/political conditions, also provide opportunity for squatting. This article explores survival squatting—illegal occupation of property as a means for procuring suitable housing by marginalized residents. Drawing on a 4.5-year ethnography in Detroit, I examine the mechanisms by which people strategically choose squatting as a method of sheltering in the context of local conditions, and the experiences and conditions of this practice. I situate these empirical findings within a broader discussion comparing squatting and other forms of housing that have received considerable attention by researchers (e.g., shelter use, sleeping rough, doubling up). Squatting is particularly risky and unstable, and often very hidden. Substandard housing conditions prevail, and substance abuse is common. Squatting may have negative implications for child welfare, but may also provide measures of independence, self-determination, and comfort for illegal occupiers. There is a critical need for further research in this area, both to inform comprehensive housing policies and to anticipate how squatters’ well-being is impacted by other urban initiatives, such as blight demolition.     

Investing in Crisis: The Methods,Strategies, and Expectations of Investors in Single-Family Foreclosed Homes in Distressed Neighborhoods

In the wake of the U.S. foreclosure crisis, the magnitude of homes flowing into investor ownership since 2007 has been unprecedented. Based on interviews with investors and other key informants active on the south and southwest sides of Atlanta, we describe the key aspects of the business models of such investors, including their methods of identifying properties, determining acquisition prices and renovation costs, and managing properties for rent. We also examine their expectations for financial return, including the sensitivity of returns to market and property uncertainties. We conclude with key findings and some recommendations for policymakers.     

Why Place Really Matters: A Qualitative Approach to Housing Preferences and Neighborhood Effects

The idea that a person’s neighborhood or zip code can predict his or her life outcomes has motivated a host of housing policies aimed at redressing racial segregation and breaking up areas of concentrated poverty. This article critically examines underlying assumptions about high-poverty neighborhoods that motivate those policies. Using ethnographic methods, I present the location preferences of residents living in a low-income neighborhood in Columbus, Ohio, and show the ways in which their perceptions of their neighborhood run counter to common portrayals. This analysis provides clues as to why the underlying logic of dispersal and mobility may be flawed. I conclude that place matters very much to people living in this neighborhood, just not in the way commonly implied by dispersal and mobility policy advocates. The implication is that stability, rather than mobility, ought to be the focus of more housing discussions.     

Affordable Rental Housing Development in the U.S. For-Profit Sector: Implications of a Case Study of McCormack Baron Salazar

The question of how to build decent housing that is affordable to lower income households has challenged policymakers in the United States for decades. In response, the federal government has developed a variety of partnership approaches that involve private for-profit developers. Although these entities are currently the major producers of affordable housing in the United States, they have received relatively little attention from the academic and policy communities. This inquiry is aimed at filing a small portion of this gap by presenting a qualitative case study of one of the country’s leading for-profit developers that has a longstanding commitment to affordable housing, McCormack Baron Salazar. Using a modified version of the quadruple bottom line framework as the starting point, this exploration discusses the complexity and challenges facing the affordable housing sector and offers programmatic and policy recommendations that are applicable to both for-profit and nonprofit developers. In view of the results of the 2016 presidential election, and the likely continued retreat by the federal government from supporting affordable housing, the need to better understand, and form productive working alliances and collaborations with, private for-profit affordable housing developers is more compelling than ever.     

Family Shelter Entry and Re-entry During the Recession in Hennepin County: The Role of Race,Residential Location,and Family Earnings

This article examines the extent to which shelter entry and re-entry increased during the Great Recession (December 2007–December 2009) in Hennepin County, Minnesota. Among successive cohorts of families entering the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), Black families were 23% more likely to enter shelter if they were in the 2008–2009 cohort and 28% more likely to enter shelter if they were in the 2010 cohort than if they entered SNAP in 2004–2005. In addition, families who left shelter in 2009 were 39% more likely and families leaving shelter in 2010 were 63% more likely to re-enter shelter than those leaving shelter in 2004–2006. Only a small part of the increases in shelter entry and shelter re-entry was explained by reductions in family earnings. This suggests that the increases in shelter entry and re-entry may have been caused by other factors, such as the decline in the availability of affordable housing.     

Addressing the Affordable Housing Crisis for Vulnerable Renters: Insights From Broward County on an Affordable Housing Acquisition Tool

South Florida is experiencing an affordable rental crisis that is especially burdensome on those most vulnerable in society, low-income households. Rapid urbanization has resulted in inequitable land-use patterns that are a barrier to housing for the poor. As a solution to the crisis, local housing agencies seek to expand their affordable housing stock for vulnerable renters in opportunity-rich neighborhoods, but there is no standard framework for identifying properties for acquisition. Broward County serves as a case study to develop a housing acquisition tool. Using a combination of spatial statistics and principal components analysis, neighborhoods in which housing agencies may consider acquiring property are identified through the creation of an affordability surface in ArcGIS. Affordability is overlain by an opportunity surface derived from neighborhood quality and accessibility rankings. The results identify neighborhoods in Broward County that are both affordable and opportunity-rich, to better serve the county's most vulnerable renters.     

Walking Away From The Wire: Housing Mobility and Neighborhood Opportunity in Baltimore

Families using the Housing Choice Voucher Program rarely experience large gains in neighborhood or school quality when compared with unassisted poor renters. Research on housing mobility programs has reached mixed conclusions about whether vouchers can improve neighborhood and school quality, especially in the long term. We revisit these findings using new data from the partial remedy to the Thompson v. HUD desegregation case in Baltimore, known as the Baltimore Housing Mobility Program (BHMP). Through targeted vouchers, intensive counseling and innovative policy features, the BHMP helped families move to low-poverty, nonsegregated neighborhoods with higher performing school districts. We examine residential outcomes for the first 1,800 families that moved through the program for a period of up to 9 years. We find that BHMP families moved to more integrated and affluent neighborhoods, in school districts with more qualified teachers and fewer poor students—and most families stayed in these neighborhoods beyond their initial lease-up period. Eventually, a small proportion of families moved to neighborhoods that are less white, but still significantly less poor and less segregated than their original communities. We interpret these findings in light of past mobility programs and discuss policy implications for the Housing Choice Voucher Program.     

Survival of the Fairest: Examining HUD Reviews of Assessments of Fair Housing

ABSTRACT

In 2015, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) Rule, arguably the most significant federal effort in a generation to address place-based disparities in access to opportunity and to advance fair housing. In 2018, HUD suspended the rule, it said in part because of the resources it was expending to implement it and in part because of the large share of municipal plans that HUD determined had failed to meet the rule’s requirements. In this article, we present the first analysis of the fair housing plans that HUD did not accept, examining how municipalities failed to meet the rule's requirements, what those failures imply about advancing fair housing, and the extent to which HUD’s enforcement strategy was working before the suspension. Our analysis shows that HUD engaged in detailed reviews of municipalities’ Assessments of Fair Housing and provided constructive feedback. The most common issue with which municipalities struggled was setting realistic goals that would actually advance fair housing and creating measurable metrics and milestones to gauge progress. Several municipalities neglected to conduct thorough regional analyses or analyses of all relevant disparities in access to opportunity. Both shortcomings reflect broader challenges municipalities face in advancing fair housing, particularly in identifying strategies that address interconnected causes of disparities in access to opportunity and in building regional support to address those causes.     

Immigration and the Evolving American Welfare State: Examining Policies in the U.S. States

The inclusion of racial/ethnic minorities is often considered an important factor leading to a relatively limited American welfare system. However, given the federal nature of welfare eligibility rules and the states' role in determining benefit levels, few studies explicitly link questions of inclusion and benefit levels when explaining the evolution of American welfare policy. This study examines the relationship between inclusion and benefit levels by analyzing state policies related to the welfare reforms of 1996 which allowed states to decide if recent immigrants would be included in welfare benefits, and subsequently the extent to which this decision affected overall benefit levels offered by states under TANF. The results suggest that states' decisions regarding inclusion subsequently affect benefit levels, with the direction of these relationships most closely reflecting the erosion model's prediction of broader eligibility associated with lower benefit levels.     

Affordability After Subsidies: Understanding the Trajectories of Former Assisted Housing in Florida

Each year, thousands of units are lost from the assisted rental housing inventory through deterioration and default, subsidy expiration, and market-rate conversion. While a good deal of research and data collection has focused on identifying at-risk developments, less is known about what happens to former assisted developments after they exit income and rent restrictions. This article uses a survey of former assisted properties in Florida to identify their postsubsidy trajectories—that is, as to whether developments continue as rental housing, are converted to condominiums, or leave the housing stock through vacancy and demolition; and for those that continue as rental housing, whether they continue to offer affordable rents. Using logistic regression models, the article examines the property, housing market, and neighborhood characteristics that determine these trajectories. The results show that smaller properties, those that have been out of subsidy programs longer, and those in stronger neighborhood housing markets are more likely to be converted to condominiums. Among developments that continue as rental housing, those that previously had more stringent rent restrictions, those in strong rental submarkets, and those with better transit access tend to become unaffordable compared with previous rent limits.     

Spotlight on the Main Actors: How Land Banks and Community Development Corporations Stabilize and Revitalize Cleveland Neighborhoods in the Aftermath of the Foreclosure Crisis

Cleveland, Ohio provides a useful case for examining and contrasting property transfer practices among certain key actors before, during, and after the foreclosure crisis. Transfers among key actors—Cleveland’s two land banks, the State of Ohio, Fannie Mae, investors, and community development corporations (CDCs)—differed considerably. This article empirically shows that inappropriate property transfer practices by financial institutions and speculator-type investors negatively impacted neighborhoods, compounding the damage brought on by the foreclosure crisis. By contrast, a case study of one of the hardest hit neighborhoods in Cleveland finds that the land banks and CDC are producing positive outcomes. A proactive land bank as a conduit and robust CDCs as a project promoter are an effective combination to cope with vacant and abandoned properties.     

Lists and Lotteries: Rationing in the Housing Choice Voucher Program

This article investigates how the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program rations subsidies. HCV is the largest low-income housing assistance program in the United States. Despite the program’s size, millions of HCV-eligible households go without subsidy each year. Because the demand for support exceeds the supply of subsidies, HCV assistance is rationed through several mechanisms. These mechanisms and their relationship with the HCV system from both the client and administrator perspectives will be discussed. Implications of HCV rationing will also be discussed.