Comment on Kerry D. Vandell's “FHA restructuring proposals: Alternatives and implications”

Abstract

New Orleans, a highly segregated city with low homeownership, experienced a tremendous number of housing foreclosures between 1985 and 1990. This study highlights the process and impact of foreclosure in the urban housing market, which contributes to an understanding of their impact on the spatial structure of the city. Two aspects of foreclosure are examined: the differential impacts of foreclosure on low‐income and African‐American householders and changes in socioeconomic conditions (neighborhood change and the spatial structure of the city) resulting from foreclosure.

Conventional wisdom holds that urban neighborhood transformation is driven largely by white flight. The data presented in this article suggest a counterhypoth‐esis. Middle‐income professional whites employed in businesses impacted by recession who had recently bought housing with high loan‐to‐value ratios were forced to sell or have their houses foreclosed upon. The depressed market, in turn, made such housing affordable to middle‐class blacks interested in homeownership. Thus, black economic opportunity, rather than white flight, dramatically transformed the racial composition of many New Orleans East neighborhoods.     

Preserving Community Assets: Do Foreclosure Sales Need to Negatively Impact the Neighborhood?

Research has linked concentrated foreclosures with negative neighborhood outcomes; for instance, increased crime and decreased property values. These outcomes drain community asset holdings and impact the longer term trajectory of the neighborhood. However, data reported in this article from a Boston study challenge the assumption that negative neighborhood outcomes are a foregone conclusion in the face of foreclosures. Analysis of interviews with real estate agents and other foreclosure professionals, neighborhood ethnographic observation, and citywide sales and foreclosure sales documents demonstrate that the distinct nature of the foreclosure sales process creates market disruptions heightening the risk for documented negative neighborhood outcomes. Attempts by the seller to reduce financial risks in the sale increase the likelihood of vacancy and create a market oriented toward investor–buyers. Understanding the risk preferences of key decision makers in the foreclosure sale process reveals new intervention points—such as intervening at the short sale, or expanding and updating foreclosure laws to reflect current foreclosure sales markets—to reduce market disruptions and preserve community assets in the face of foreclosures.     

Neighborhood Housing Resilience: Examining Changes in Foreclosed Homes During the U.S. Housing Recovery

ABSTRACT

The surge in foreclosures in the United States that began in 2007 reached a peak in mid-2011, and since then, the rate of foreclosures has been decreasing, providing evidence of the housing market recovery. This study examines factors that affected changes in ZIP code-level foreclosure rates in more than 300 U.S. metropolitan areas during the national housing recovery. Using multivariate analyses of the long- and short-term effects of foreclosures simultaneously, this finding shows that certain characteristics of the mortgage and housing markets led to more rapid neighborhood recovery. Results also indicate, however, that most urban-form variables led to neighborhood resilience over the long term, that high shares of mixed land use were strongly associated with fewer foreclosures, and that high shares of auto dependency were associated with high foreclosure rates. Finally, findings suggest that low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, particularly in cities, were more vulnerable and less resilient to economic shock, and the accumulated effects of foreclosures worsened over the long term. However, low- and moderate-income neighborhoods surrounded by suburban affluent neighborhoods recovered more rapidly than those in cities did. Understanding such resilience to economic crises will provide policymakers with insights that they can leverage to establish housing policies for sustainable neighborhoods.     

Can Local Ordinances Prevent Neighborhood Destabilization?

This article assesses the ability of local housing ordinances to prevent neighborhood destabilization, specifically that arising as a consequence of the most recent housing crisis. We evaluate the degree to which vacancy registrations and point-of-sale inspection requirements influenced housing market outcomes during the housing crisis. With comprehensive real property data from Cuyahoga County, Ohio, we measure outcomes that characterize housing market distress including foreclosures, sales below the tax-assessed value, bulk sales, flipping, and property tax delinquency. We evaluate outcomes across properties in regulated and unregulated municipalities using matching procedures on linked data containing property, neighborhood, loan, and transaction characteristics. We find evidence that vacancy registrations substantially reduce foreclosures. In contrast, we find little evidence that point-of-sale inspections reduce undesirable transactions. Rather, properties in cities with inspection requirements displayed higher levels of foreclosure and tax delinquency relative to the control group during the study period.     

The Impact of Housing Submarkets and Urban Form on the Foreclosure Crisis in U.S. Urban Counties

In this article, the authors introduce a novel way to define and measure housing submarkets in relation to foreclosures. Instead of the traditional methods of identifying submarkets a priori, this study uses an approach that empirically delineates housing submarkets based on spatial contiguity and housing attributes. The spatial clustering algorithm developed for this study identified submarkets in each of the urban counties. A spatial regression model was then used to assess the impact of submarket structure on foreclosure rates. In addition, the study also incorporates a measure of sprawl in its analysis. It was found that sprawling counties are not more likely to have higher rates of foreclosures compared with average rates. However, the counties with smaller and more fragmented housing submarkets are likely to have lower rates of foreclosures. The results suggest that urban form is less consequential than housing market structure in affecting U.S. housing market dynamics.     

The external costs of foreclosure: The impact of single‐family mortgage foreclosures on property values

Abstract

To measure the impact of foreclosures on nearby property values, we use a database that combines data on 1997 and 1998 foreclosures with data on neighborhood characteristics and more than 9,600 single‐family property transactions in Chicago in 1999. After controlling for some 40 characteristics of properties and their respective neighborhoods, we find that foreclosures of conventional single‐family (one‐ to four‐unit) loans have a significant impact on nearby property values. Our most conservative estimates indicate that each conventional foreclosure within an eighth of a mile of a single‐family home results in a decline of 0.9 percent in value.

Cumulatively, this means that, for the entire city of Chicago, the 3,750 foreclosures that occurred in 1997 and 1998 are estimated to have reduced nearby property values by more than $598 million, for an average of $159,000 per foreclosure. This does not include effects on the value of condominiums, multifamily rental properties, and commercial buildings.     

Is Investor Purchasing of Foreclosures Related to Neighborhood Crime? Evidence From a Phoenix Suburb

Little is known about how investors purchasing foreclosures during the recent U.S. housing crisis are affecting neighborhood crime. While they may decrease crime by reducing vacancies or bettering neighborhood conditions, they may increase it by escalating neighborhood turnover. Combining local police department data on calls for service with foreclosure, home sales, and sociodemographic data, this research uses longitudinal modeling to assess the relation between the purchasing of foreclosures by investors and calls for service in neighborhoods in Chandler, Arizona, a Phoenix suburb where investors are renting former foreclosures. Neighborhoods where foreclosures were more often purchased by investors had more calls for service about violent crime the following year.     

Spatially and Sequentially Heterogeneous Discounts of Distressed Property Values in Cuyahoga County,Ohio

One of the most persistent public policy debates is over the aftermath of the foreclosure crisis and its continuing impact on housing markets. Distressed properties – including foreclosure and real estate-owned properties – tend to be sold at much lower prices than nearby comparable properties, often pulling down both surrounding property values and neighborhood morale. Recent findings show that these discounts for distressed properties are associated with various factors, but three important dimensions of these discounts remain relatively unexplored. First among these is the degree of variation in these discounts, even within the same regional market. Second is how discounts vary through the typical sequence of the distressed property transaction cycle. The final factor is the nature by which discounts vary according to the market participants – are the buyers/sellers individuals or institutions? This study examines these major factors affecting discounts, and estimates the spatially and sequentially heterogeneous discounts for distressed properties in the housing submarkets of Cuyahoga County, Ohio. Findings indicate that the discounts of distressed properties in the strong and weak submarkets substantially vary based on all three of these previously overlooked factors, yielding a more complex and nuanced housing context for practitioners and policymakers to consider.     

The impact of predatory loan terms on subprime foreclosures: The special case of prepayment penalties and balloon payments

Previous research has shown that housing abandonment contributes to neighborhood decline by depressing nearby property values. However, most past research estimated the impact of abandonment through cross-sectional analysis without controlling for nearby foreclosures or local housing market trends. Therefore, it remains unclear whether abandoned properties reduce nearby property values or whether abandonment is more common in areas with already lower-valued properties. Prior research also has not explored how the duration of abandonment influences nearby property values. Therefore, to extend the current level of understanding of the impact of abandonment, this research examines the impact of abandoned properties on nearby property values in Baltimore, Maryland, from 1991 to 2010 using longitudinal data sets while simultaneously controlling for both nearby foreclosures and local housing market trends. This research finds that as properties are abandoned for longer periods of time, the impact on nearby property values not only increases in magnitude but also is seen increasingly farther away.     

Responding to the foreclosure crisis

Abstract

Regional economic downturns, speculation on skyrocketing home prices, and rampant unfair and deceptive mortgage lending practices have combined to create the perfect foreclosure storm in America. More than 2 million foreclosures are expected to occur during the next 12 to 18 months. Common to all three of these contributing factors is the reality that effective regulation of the mortgage market would have greatly limited damage from foreclosures.

This article traces the origins of the subprime market crisis and the resulting impact of foreclosures on the housing market, minority households, and the economy. The article also reviews the effectiveness of current interventions to mitigate or limit foreclosures and recommends broader solutions to help families maintain their homes.     

Renting the Dream: The Rise of Single-Family Rentership in the Sunbelt Metropolis

In the aftermath of the foreclosure crisis, there has been a marked shift toward renting in the United States, with a large increase in households renting single-family homes. In the 50 largest metropolitan areas, the number of detached, single-family rental homes (SFRs) increased from 3.8 million to 5.8 million from 2006 to 2015. Single-family rentership rates increased in all 50 large metro areas, with the percentage of single-family units that are rented increasing from 11.3% to 16%. Notably, the nine metropolitan areas with the largest increases were all located in the Sunbelt. Given expected neighborhood sorting, it is important to consider neighborhood increases in SFRs. In one large Sunbelt metro area, Atlanta, increases in SFRs from 2010 to 2015 were particularly large in older, inner-county diverse suburbs. Regression results show that, controlling for other neighborhood characteristics, neighborhoods with larger Asian, Latino, and black populations saw larger increases in SFRs. The effects were particularly high in neighborhoods with larger Latino and, especially, Asian populations. Another key finding is that, in neighborhoods with lower property values, more foreclosures during the crisis were associated with sizeable increases in SFRs. However, more foreclosures in neighborhoods with high property values were not associated with increases in SFRs. This is possibly due to the exclusionary nature of high property-value suburbs and the strong demand in such neighborhoods for owner-occupied housing. Implications for policy and research are considered.     

Saving Strong Neighborhoods From the Destruction of Mortgage Foreclosures: The Impact of Community-Based Efforts in Detroit,Michigan

Mortgage foreclosures hit Detroit, Michigan hard between 2005 and 2014, especially in what we define as strong neighborhoods; there, more than one third of homes experienced foreclosure. Before the crisis hit, these selected tracts had largely intact physical environments and higher owner occupancy, household income and property value than the citywide median. In some of them residents worked intensely to abate the neighborhood effects of mortgage foreclosures. This study examines those efforts’ effectiveness. We selected neighborhoods with the most extensive efforts, as measured, for instance, by creation of community-based plans and applications for grants, and we conducted interviews and field observations to examine those efforts. To assess strengthening of neighborhood housing markets, we applied a modified adjusted interrupted time-series approach to evaluate changes in prices as one measure of neighborhood change. We found that strong resident initiative supported by community development organizations and external assistance led to increased neighborhood housing prices, compared with comparable neighborhoods. However, when initiative, context, and support were weaker, community-based efforts could not prevent considerable decline.     

Section 8 Renters in the Phoenix,Arizona, Foreclosure Crisis: Implications for Poverty Deconcentration

How the recent U.S. foreclosure crisis affected federal housing mobility programs has not been well studied. This article explores the crisis’s impact on low-income renters receiving Section 8 vouchers in Phoenix, Arizona. We find that (a) 8% of voucher holders lived in homes that underwent foreclosure, (b) they were in comparably affluent neighborhoods, and (c) most eventually moved after foreclosure. Yet, those who moved after foreclosure were not overtly disadvantaged in the housing market. This unexpected finding may be explained by the opening up of new housing opportunities for voucher holders as foreclosures in more affluent areas were converted to rentals. Overall, this research suggests that the foreclosure crisis did not adversely affect the Section 8 program’s goal of deconcentrating poverty in Phoenix and may have even advanced it—a dynamic potentially occurring in other formerly booming and economically distressed Sunbelt regions.     

Investing in Crisis: The Methods,Strategies, and Expectations of Investors in Single-Family Foreclosed Homes in Distressed Neighborhoods

In the wake of the U.S. foreclosure crisis, the magnitude of homes flowing into investor ownership since 2007 has been unprecedented. Based on interviews with investors and other key informants active on the south and southwest sides of Atlanta, we describe the key aspects of the business models of such investors, including their methods of identifying properties, determining acquisition prices and renovation costs, and managing properties for rent. We also examine their expectations for financial return, including the sensitivity of returns to market and property uncertainties. We conclude with key findings and some recommendations for policymakers.     

Rolling the Dice on Foreclosure Prevention: Differences Across Mortgage Servicers in Loan Modifications and Loan Cure Rates

Mortgage servicing has garnered increased attention since the foreclosure crisis. As the interface between borrowers and investors, servicers make the decision to either grant a loan modification or to foreclose. This study examines servicer loan modification practices for a national sample of delinquent subprime loans, and assesses the extent to which those practices are associated with foreclosures. The research reveals significant differences across servicers in loan cure rates, which are related to servicers’ propensity to offer loan modifications and to the level of relief offered to borrowers. The observed differences across servicers and the implications of this heterogeneity for foreclosure prevention underscore the importance of additional data, research, and policies that can increase the uniformity and transparency of servicing practices.     

The Effects of Foreclosure Counseling for Distressed Homeowners

In the face of the housing market downturn of the late 2000s, policymakers promoted third‐party mortgage default counseling as a way to help people at risk of losing their homes to avoid foreclosure. Using a unique data set of monthly loan payments remitted to investors combined with administrative data from a national counseling agency, this study estimates the effects of default counseling on the probability that troubled mortgage borrowers will lose their homes to foreclosure. Borrowers are actually more likely to miss loan payments after receiving counseling, but the probability of losing a home to foreclosure drops after counseling, suggesting that counseling policies may be beneficial during housing crises.     

Lessons From Las Vegas: Housing Markets,Neighborhoods, and Distressed Single-Family Property Investors

The collapse of the housing bubble and the ensuing wave of foreclosures have led to a dramatic increase in investor activity in distressed single-family markets, particularly in high-foreclosure areas such as Las Vegas, Nevada. Using a case study of investors in the Las Vegas market as the starting point, supplemented by research in the Detroit, Michigan, area and elsewhere, this article analyzes the strategies being followed by investors and the relationship between investor behavior and market conditions, presenting a market-based typology of single-family property investors and assessing the effects of investors on markets and neighborhood conditions.     

Declining foreclosure neighborhood effects over time

According to previous studies, residential foreclosures reduce the value of neighboring residential units and the initial negative effects decay over time and space. This study attempts to investigate the temporal path of the initial effects by following cohorts of single-family housing distressed sales (foreclosures and real estate owned sales) over time. A hedonic model estimation of single-family housing sales in Saint Louis County, Missouri, produced larger marginal impacts for new distressed sales in the year 2000 compared with the marginal impact of new distressed sales in 2007, that is, the marginal impact of new distressed sales is declining in at least one housing market. This result holds true for the distressed sale neighborhood impact, the effect of distress on the same unit's future sales price, and the discount on a distressed unit's current “liquidation sale” price.