Targeting the suburban urbanites: Marketing central‐city housing

Abstract

This article explores target marketing as a means to identify which middle‐income suburbanites may relocate to central cities. The most targetable populations reside near central cities and lead urban lifestyles. We term such people “suburban urbanites.” Geodemography, a method combining population and location, is used to classify suburban urbanites using data from Claritas Inc., a target marketer. Claritas divides the nation's neighborhoods into lifestyle clusters by linking population density to demographic and consumptive patterns.

A case study of metropolitan Washington, DC, illustrates how target marketing works. We find that more than half the region's middle‐class, Claritas‐defined urbanites live outside the District of Columbia. Thus, a large market of potential city dwellers lives in Washington's suburbs. Target marketing enhances the statistical approaches traditionally used in policy making and may help cities understand and develop their comparative advantages.     

A mobility strategy for improving opportunity

Abstract

Postwar changes in the metropolitan settlement structure have profoundly altered the geography of opportunity in the older cities of the Northeast and Midwest. Poverty is concentrated in once‐central cities, while employment continues to deconcentrate to the suburbs. In the face of these changes, antipoverty policy has become a geographic exercise of moving people and resources from certain places to other places.

The three main strategies for confronting inner‐city poverty are dispersal, development, and mobility. These strategies are discussed and compared, with particular emphasis on the mobility approach. The article argues that the mobility approach—which connects poor inner‐city residents to suburban employment opportunities without changing the location of households or firms—is the most promising near‐term strategy for combating urban poverty.     

Central‐city and suburban migration patterns: Is a turnaround on the horizon?

Abstract

The huge population losses that characterized many older, larger U.S. cities during the 1960s and 1970s slowed and in some cases ceased during the 1980s and early 1990s. Periodic media reports of neighborhood turnarounds, commercial revitalization, and improvements in housing and the quality of life in selected inner‐city subareas have been taken as signs that central cities are retaining middle‐class residents and even attracting some back from the suburbs.

Analysis of metropolitan household migration patterns based on the U.S. Census Bureau's 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples and more recent Current Population Surveys shows that the dominant trend in residential movement among most population subgroups is still toward the suburbs. While not discounting reports of central‐city neighborhood turnarounds and selective demographic revitalization, our findings imply that those improvements are limited and that a widespread back‐to‐the‐city movement is not likely in the foreseeable future.     

The challenge of our declining big cities

Abstract

This article describes the population forces that caused U.S. metropolitan areas to grow rapidly after 1940 but caused falling population in many large older cities. It shows why the basic processes that generated the spatial growth and development of American metropolitan areas have also undermined the fiscal strength of many older central cities and inner‐ring suburbs. By concentrating low‐income households in inner‐core neighborhoods, these processes create undesirable conditions that motivate economically viable households and firms to move to surrounding suburbs and not move back.

Three strategies have been suggested for improving these conditions: major structural reform of metropolitan institutions, limited reform of big‐city governments, and community development of inner‐core areas. The first is the most capable of changing the dynamics causing decline, but it lacks political support because it would require the majority of metropolitan residents to sacrifice some benefits they gain from existing arrangements.     

Comment on Elvin K. Wyly and Daniel J. Hammel's “Islands of Decay in Seas of Renewal: Housing Policy and the Resurgence of Gentrification"—Gentrification resurgent?

Abstract

Gentrification is a procyclical process by which certain inner‐city neighborhoods are revitalized to meet the demands of professional households. It is confined to cities with substantial central business district office growth and with housing markets characterized by substantial suburb‐to‐inner city filtering. The process remains limited in scale, and available data do not permit a judgment as to whether changes in mortgage lending have changed the nature of the process.     

Moving to Location Affordability? Housing Choice Vouchers and Residential Relocation in the Portland,Oregon, Region

Abstract

Location affordability measures a household’s combined cost of housing and transportation. Low-income households have the most to gain from housing with lower transportation costs. This research analyzes whether Housing Choice Voucher Program households—participants in a program designed to provide low-income households with a greater degree of housing choice—are able to choose housing that lowers their transportation costs in a metropolitan region with a compact, vital urban core. A mixed-methods approach is used to investigate the differences in location affordability and efficiency among 2,026 voucher recipients who moved within the Portland, Oregon, region during 2012–2013. Location mattered to movers, but in some unexpected ways. Urban movers relocated to less location efficient areas, whereas suburban movers’ location efficiency remained stable. In tight housing markets, voucher holders may be edged out of location-efficient neighborhoods and thus incur increased transportation costs.     

Federal policy and postwar urban decline: A case of government complicity?

Abstract

Many urban commentators have implicated the federal government in the decline of central cities in the decades just after World War II. They claim that federal policies disproportionately favored suburban development over much needed urban redevelopment and exacerbated the deconcentration and decentralization of people and capital.

Close scrutiny reveals flaws in this argument and four of them are examined in this article: the core premise that suburban growth and population loss in the central cities are inversely related, the lack of attention to the actual chronology of events, the failure to address the geographic incidence of population loss from the central cities, and the deemphasizing of the role of the private sector, often acting with government support. The article concludes with a brief reflection on the tenacity of the complicity claim.     

Reintegrating disadvantaged communities into the fabric of urban life: The role of community development

Abstract

This article analyzes the extent to which systematic spatial variations in opportunities in metropolitan areas provide a persuasive rationale for three current strategies for stimulating the development of urban communities: enterprise zone programs, community development financial institutions, and community development corporations. It examines whether the strategies are appropriately designed to respond to serious deficiencies in opportunities in distressed inner cities and reviews available evidence about their efficacy in addressing those deficiencies.

A review of the literature reveals that poor inner‐city neighborhoods, particularly communities of color, have unequal access to opportunities in numerous areas, including employment, credit and financial services, housing, neighborhood shopping, and social networks and services that provide access to information and resources. The limited best‐case evidence indicates that the three strategies vary greatly in their ability to address these inequalities.     

Black pioneers—do their moves to the suburbs increase economic opportunity for mothers and children?

Abstract

This paper examines whether housing vouchers help poor people improve their education and employment. The Gautreaux program uses housing certificates and counseling to help poor people move to white suburbs and to black urban areas. The people who move to suburbs face different opportunities and challenges than those moving within the city, so it is not certain which group will have better employment and education. We find that compared with city movers, the adult suburban movers have greatly improved employment, even after controls, but they have no different pay or hours worked. Among children, suburban movers are more likely than city movers to be (1) in school, (2) in college‐track programs, (3) in four‐year colleges, (4) in jobs, (5) in better‐paying jobs, and (6) in jobs with benefits. Just by moving people and without providing additional services, this program has uncovered capabilities of these low‐income people that were not evident in the city. Policy implications of this program are considered herein.     

Federal colonias policy in California: Too broad and too narrow

Abstract

This article presents data on the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States to compare the metropolitan population density in the eastern and western parts of the country. The data show that the West often has more densely settled metropolitan areas than the East, especially when compared with the Southeast. The difference is due in part to the arid and rugged environment in the West.

The article also develops a new understanding of Sunbelt development by comparing its eastern and western halves. The growth patterns of the Sunbelt are often contrasted with those of the Northeast and Midwest, the assumption being that its newer metropolitan areas share a common, lower‐density urban form. However, this study shows that intraregional differences within the Sunbelt make such comparisons difficult and deceptive.     

Inner‐city concentrated poverty and neighborhood distress: 1970 to 1990

Abstract

Tract‐level data from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses of population are used to identify poverty neighborhoods, extreme poverty neighborhoods, distressed neighborhoods, and severely distressed neighborhoods within the nation's 100 largest central cities. Changes in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of these neighborhoods are documented, including racial/ethnic composition; poverty population concentration; school dropout rates; and rates of joblessness, single‐parent households, and welfare receipt.

Results show that despite some encouraging individual city turnarounds in the Northeast (especially in New York, Newark, and Philadelphia), urban poverty concentration and neighborhood distress worsened nationwide between 1980 and 1990. The greatest deterioration occurred in midwestern cities, particularly in Detroit. Southern cities, whose neighborhoods and cities typically improved during the 1970s, slipped during the 1980s; conditions in western cities also deteriorated. Blacks fared worse than whites and Hispanics during the 1980s in terms of increased concentration of poor in poverty tracts and distressed urban neighborhoods.     

Reinventing the central city as a place to live and work

Abstract

Public policies for urban development have traditionally emphasized investment in physical infrastructure, the development of large‐scale commercial facilities, the construction of new housing, and the renewal of existing neighborhoods. Most efforts to revitalize central cities by building new facilities for visitors have focused on suburban commuters and tourists. At the same time, many housing initiatives in central cities have concentrated on low‐income communities because outlying suburban areas have attracted traditional middle‐income households.

This article argues that emerging demographic and cultural trends—combined with changes in the structure of business organizations and technological advances—provide new opportunities for cities to retain and attract middle‐class households. Using gay and lesbian populations as an example, it focuses on the role that nontraditional households can play in urban redevelopment. In light of the rise of nontraditional households and the growth of self‐employment and small businesses, cities should adopt policies that make them attractive places in which to live and work.     

Using housing vouchers to move to the suburbs: How do families fare?

Abstract

When families with Section 8 housing vouchers move from inner‐city communities to the suburbs, are they more likely to move to neighborhoods with higher socioeconomic status and to perceive improvements in housing and neighborhood conditions than those who make local moves or those who first move to the suburbs but then return to the central city? Both crosstabular and logistic regression analysis are applied to a telephone interview sample of 300 Section 8 voucher recipients in Oakland and Berkeley, CA.

As predicted, compared with the other two groups, suburban‐bound movers were more likely to move to neighborhoods with higher socioeconomic status and to experience better residential conditions, even when relevant background characteristics were controlled. Furthermore, few suburban‐bound movers experienced adjustment problems with neighbors or landlords, and their children quickly and smoothly adjusted to their new schools. The implications of these results for the Section 8 housing voucher program are discussed.     

Trends in City Conditions During the 1970s: A Survey of Demographic and Socioeconomic Changes

Changes in the demographic and socioeconomic conditions of 627cities between 1970 and 1980 are examined using simple comparisonof means and correlational analytic techniques. Cities are groupedaccording to their type (Central city; suburb), regional location,and rate of population growth (decline). Major changes occurredin employment patterns, income levels, economic bases, racialcomposition, and social pathologies (crime rates)—allmeasures of urban stress. These conditions tended to clusterin certain types of cities: large, declining central citiesof the Northeast and Midwest. But population decline and regionallocation were not found to be independent determinants of urbandistress. National and regional economic trends, especiallychanges in the vitality of the metropolitan area in which acity is located. were the primary determinants.     

Comment on Anthony Downs's “Have Housing Prices Risen Faster in Portland Than Elsewhere?”

Abstract

Forms of urban containment are found in more than a hundred jurisdictions across the United States. The lightning rod for the debate over urban containment is metropolitan Portland, OR, which has had an urban growth boundary for a generation. In the early 1990s, housing prices there soared, providing fodder to interests opposed to public interference in the private development market. Downs contributes to the debate by finding that over the long term, metropolitan Portland's housing prices are more in line with its West Coast and national contemporaries than not.

This comment first reviews some of the literature associating growth controls and growth management with housing price changes. I then examine how Oregon's and metropolitan Portland's particular institutional measures ameliorate potential price effects, offering lessons for containment programs everywhere. I caution that urban containment is here to stay and that the best way for development interests to protect themselves from undesirable outcomes is to advocate Portland‐style urban containment.     

Changing the geography of opportunity by expanding residential choice: Lessons from the Gautreaux program

Abstract

The concept of “geography of opportunity” suggests that where individuals live affects their opportunities. While multivariate analyses cannot control completely for individual self‐selection to neighborhoods, this article examines a residential integration program—the Gautreaux program—in which low‐income blacks are randomly assigned to middle‐income white suburbs or low‐income mostly black urban areas.

Compared with urban movers, adult suburban movers experience higher employment but no different wages or hours worked, and suburban mover youth do better on several educational measures and, if not in college, are more likely to have jobs with good pay and benefits. The two groups of youth are equally likely to interact with peers, but suburban movers are much more likely to interact with whites and only slightly less likely to interact with blacks. The article considers how attrition might affect the observations and speculates about the program's strengths and pitfalls.     

Evaluating the success of urban success stories: Is reputation a guide to best practice?

Abstract

Do the reputations of central cities that have reportedly revitalized match reality? Can reputation alone be used to select best practices in urban public policy? In replicating research conducted a decade ago, we asked a panel of urban and economic development experts to identify, out of the universe of large, distressed central cities in 1990, those that had successfully revitalized between 1990 and 2000. We compared the performance of these successful cities with the performance of cities not perceived to be successful on a composite index of the change in the economic well‐being of residents from 1990 to 2000, as well as on a weighted index of economic, social, fiscal, and demographic change between 1990 and 2000.

Regardless of which index was used, there was a low correlation between reputation and reality. We draw lessons from this experiment on relying on best practice reputations in formulating and propagating public policies.     

Innovation at the edges of the metropolis: An analysis of innovation drivers in Sydney's peripheral suburbs

Abstract

This article discusses using the concept of innovation ecosystems to assess innovation intensity in peripheral areas of metropolitan regions. Innovation is a significant driver of prosperity, industrial growth, and job creation. Emergent areas of new technology applications have their roots in entrepreneurial and innovative practices. However, studies have focused on the strengths that cities—and central business districts and inner suburbs in particular— have relative to the industries of the emerging knowledge economy, notably information technology and financial, property, and business services. Most of the time, the peripheral suburbs have been neglected.

The results from a study of innovation drivers in Sydney, Australia, show that peripheral suburbs in metropolitan areas have local innovation processes that require specific planning measures to promote innovation intensity. Some of these processes are linked to local suburban characteristics that might not apply to the entire city or metropolitan region.     

In through the back door: Social equity and regional governance

Abstract

A leading impulse for new regionalism in the 1990s was the sense that suburban and central cities are economically interdependent and should work cooperatively toward common regional welfare in the face of globalized competition. If this is so, we should witness an emergence of regional policies that combat concentrated poverty, segregation, and place‐based inequalities that impose significant economic costs. This article assesses the extent and types of metropolitan equity efforts under new regionalism, the pathways through which they arise, and their prospects.

Research finds that equity‐based regional policies are increasing; they take diverse forms and are commonly shaped by state or federal programs, but they are not explicit and primary parts of regional agendas. While regional entities have not advanced explicit discussions about equity, a confluence of intergovernmental programs and quality of life issues has added regional equity to the portfolio of metropolitan goals.