Cross-validation of the risk matrix 2000 sexual and violent scales

The predictive accuracy of the newly developed actuarial risk measures Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual/Violence (RMS, RMV) were cross validated and compared with two risk assessment measures (SVR-20 and Static-99) in a sample of sexual (n= 85) and nonsex violent (n= 46) offenders. The sexual offense reconviction rate for the sex offender group was 18% at 10 years follow-up, compared with 2% for the violent offenders. Survival analyses revealed the violent offenders were reconvicted at twice the rate compared to sexual offenders. The RMV significantly predicted violent recidivism in the sex and combined sex/violent offender groups. Although the RMS obtained marginal accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction in the sex offender group, none of the scales significantly predicted sexual reconviction. An item analysis revealed four factors not included in the risk scales that were significantly correlated with sexual and violent reconviction. Combining these factors with Static-99, RMV, and RMS increased the accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction.     

The long term recidivism risk of young sexual offenders in England and Wales– enduring risk or redemption?

PurposeTo examine the long-term sexual recidivism risk of juvenile sex offenders in England and Wales, and to compare the risk to that of a first time sexual offense for non-convicted juveniles. Additionally, the study explores the long term sexual recidivism risk of other types of juvenile offenders, and the long term violent recidivism risk of these groups.MethodsThe England and Wales Offenders Index was used to extract birth cohort data. Life table methods were used to estimate cumulative recidivism risk, and discrete time hazard models were used to compare hazard functions.ResultsAt the five year period, 7% of juvenile sexual offenders have been reconvicted of a sexual offense; reaching 13% by the end of the 35 year follow-up. When the reconviction hazard of the juvenile sexual offenders was compared with the first sexual conviction risk of a non-convicted comparison group, the hazards converged statistically after 17 years.ConclusionsThe study has implications for the registration periods of juvenile sex offenders. Indefinite registration for some juveniles needs to be considered, and a review of registration after a conviction free period would provide more balance between the protection of the public and the rights of the offender.     

The importance of appropriate allocation to offending behavior programs

This study examined the impact on reconviction of appropriate allocation to three general offending behavior programs involving adult male offenders in the English and Welsh Probation Service. Appropriate allocation was defined by level of risk for reconviction. There were three allocation groups: too low, appropriate, and too high. Using a quasi-experimental design, the reconviction rates of offenders who were allocated to and completed a program, offenders allocated to a program who failed to start, and a comparison group were compared. It was found that the appropriateness of allocation affected reconviction independently of treatment group. Furthermore, in line with the risk principle, there was an interaction between treatment group and the appropriateness of allocation.     

A three-year recidivism analysis of state correctional releases

The present study undertakes a three-year follow-up time frame of approximately 10,000 inmates released from New Jersey prisons in 2012. Consistent with the methodology set forth in federal analyses, various definitions of recidivism were utilized. Recidivism rates were consistent, and in some counts below, federal findings as well. Rearrest post-release rates were 53%, reconviction rates were 40.1% and reincarceration rates were 31.3%. Offenders released to supervision had higher rates of reincarceration, while unsupervised offenders (i.e. max-outs) had higher rates of rearrest and reconviction. Males were more likely to be rearrested than females, while younger offenders were more likely to be rearrested than older offenders. Released inmates with prior arrests, convictions, and reincarcerations maintained substantially higher odds of rearrest, as did those with a higher number of prison discipline allegations. Released inmates with a violent admission offense were rearrested the least, while those serving time on a previous community supervision violation were rearrested the most. These findings are discussed within the context the criminal justice system and the existing literature.     

Cognitive-behavioral rehabilitation for high-risk violent offenders: an outcome evaluation of the violence prevention unit

Rehabilitation programs for adult violent offending are still novel, and few published studies examine the recidivism outcomes of those who complete such programs. This study describes a New Zealand prison program for high-risk violent men. The program is intensive and cognitive behavioral. Preliminary outcome data are presented for three indices during 2 or more years of follow-up: nonviolent reconviction, violent reconviction, and subsequent imprisonment. In comparison with untreated offenders, treated men were less likely to be reconvicted of a violent offense, and those who were took longer to fail. There was also a 12% difference in favor of the treated men on the two other indices, nonviolent reconviction and reimprisonment. The authors conclude that the program shows early promise and that further evaluation with a larger sample of treated men will be important in clarifying whether the program is having a differential impact on violent versus nonviolent offending.     

Psychosexual characteristics of sexual offenders and the relationship to sexual reconviction

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine if the Multiphasic Sex Inventory (MSI) could be used to predict sexual reconviction. The MSI was administered to 119 convicted male sex offenders. Reconviction data were analysed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) over 2-, 5- and 10-year follow-up periods. The MSI scales Sexual Obsession and Paraphilia (Atypical Sexual Outlet) obtained good accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction over 2- and 5-year follow-up periods. A confirmatory factor analysis of the MSI scales yielded a four-factor solution: Sexual Deviance, Sexual Desirability, Dysfunctional/Justification, and Normal. The Sexual Deviance factor demonstrated good accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction at 2-year follow-up while the Normal factor was a poor predictor of sexual reconviction. Compared against an actuarial risk assessment measure for sexual offenders, the Sexual Obsession, Sexual/Social Desirability, and Sexual Dysfunction scales, and Sexual Deviance factor made a statistically significant contribution independent of the risk scale in predicting sexual reconviction. It is argued that rather than using the MSI solely as an assessment measure of psychosexual characteristics of sexual offenders in treatment programmes, it can be used to provide additional information as part of an assessment of risk of sexual reconviction.     

How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

Assessing reconviction,reoffending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders

Purpose. The rate of sexual reconviction for sexual offenders is known to be low. Sexual reconviction, however, is currently the most commonly used outcome measure in sex offender treatment evaluation studies. It is expected that sex offender treatment programmes will reduce the likelihood of reconviction amongst participants. A low base rate of sexual reconviction means that any reduction in reconviction (which could be attributed to treatment) will be small and unlikely to be statistically significant. This study aimed to assess other offence‐related outcomes for sexual offenders, in addition to reconviction. Methods. The sample comprised 173 sexual offenders who had completed a community sex offender treatment programme. Follow‐up information was collected forthe sample from programme files containing multi‐agency information. Official reconviction rates were also calculated using both Home Office and police data. Results. Collecting evidence of any offence‐related sexual behaviour during this study multiplied the sample's sexual reconviction rate by a factor of 5.3. Conclusions. The results show that broadening the outcome measure under observation indicates a higher level of offence‐related sexual behaviour displayed by sexual offenders than reflected by reconviction data. These results have implications for the outcomes measured in treatment evaluation research for sexual offenders.     

Cognitive‐behavioural treatment for imprisoned offenders: An evaluation of HM Prison Service's cognitive skills programmes

Purpose. The effectiveness of prison‐based cognitive‐behavioural treatment programmes was evaluated using reconviction as the outcome measure. Method. Reconviction rates were compared between two groups of adult male offenders who were serving a custodial sentence of 2 years or more in Her Majesty's Prison Service, England and Wales. The treatment group (N =667) consisted of offenders who had voluntarily participated in one of two treatment programmes that targeted 'cognitive deficits' related to offending behaviour. The comparison group (N =1,801) was made up of offenders who had not participated in the treatment programme but were “matched” to the treatment group on a number of empirically relevant variables. Results. Treatment produced a robust reduction in the probability of reconviction (p < .001) when other relevant variables were controlled for. For treated offenders, the percentage point reduction in reconviction was 14% in medium‐lowrisk offenders and 11% in medium‐high‐risk offenders. Conclusion. These outcome results demonstrate that the principles of effective practice in the field of offender rehabilitation, which were identified through meta‐analytical research predominately in North America, can be applied to a UK offender population to similar effect.     

Sexual offenders discharged from prison in England and Wales: A 21‐year reconviction study

Purpose. This study examined the reconviction rates of a cohort of sexual offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1979. A 21‐year follow‐up period was used and sexual, violent and general reconvictions assessed. Method. The sample consisted of all adult male sexual offenders discharged from prison in England and Wales during 1979 (N = 419). Criminal conviction histories were obtained for the sample from the Offenders Index and sexual, violent and general reconvictions were calculated, over a period of 21 years (1979‐2000). Results. A quarter (24.6%) of the sample received a reconviction for a sexual offence over the 21‐year follow‐up period, 21.7% received a violent reconviction and 61.8% received a general reconviction. A proportion of the sample received their first sexual reconviction 5, 10 or 15 years after being discharged from custody, thus remaining at risk of reconviction for many years. Conclusions. The findings from this study give a unique insight into the long‐term offending of discharged sexual offenders in England and Wales and have implications for the supervision of such offenders.     

Evaluation of a national prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders in England and Wales

Treatment efficacy is described for a sample of sexual offenders who had undertaken treatment in United Kingdom prisons (N = 647) and for a retrospectively selected comparison group (N = 1,910). The outcomes under observation in this study were sexual, sexual and/or violent, and general reconviction. Treatment impact was also examined in relation to offenders' risk of reconviction. The treatment group had slightly lower 2-year sexual reconviction rates than the comparison group, but these differences were not statistically significant. Significant differences were found between the treatment and comparison group for sexual and/or violent reconviction. Further analysis suggested that treatment produced a reduction in the probability of sexual and/or violent reconviction (p <.05) when other relevant variables were controlled for. General reconviction rates were consistently lower in the treatment group, but these differences were not significant.     

THE IMPACT OF MEGAN'S LAW ON SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: THE MINNESOTA EXPERIENCE*

Although Megan's Law was passed more than 10 years ago, very little is known as to whether it reduces sex offender recidivism significantly. Using a retrospective quasi‐experimental design, we examine whether community notification has a deterrent effect by comparing the recidivism rates of 155 level 3 (“high public risk”) sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 1997 and 2002 who were subject to broad notification with two separate control groups who were not. The first control group (referred to as the prenotification group) contained 125 sex offenders released between 1990 and 1996 (the 7 years preceding the implementation of the Community Notification Act) who likely would have been subject to broad community notification had the law been in effect at the time of their release. The second control group (referred to as the non‐notification group) was composed of 155 offenders (37 level 1 and 118 level 2) released between 1997 and 2002 who were not subject to broad community notification. The results from the Cox proportional hazards models reveal that broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of time to a sex reoffense (rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration) compared with both control groups. The findings were mixed, however, for both non‐sex and general reoffending. Whereas broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of timing to both non‐sex and general recidivism compared with the prenotification group, no such effects were found in the non‐notification group analyses. We discuss the implications of these results and attempt to explain why Megan's Law seems to reduce sex offense recidivism in Minnesota.     

Offending behaviour programmes in the community: The effects on reconviction of three programmes with adult male offenders

Purpose . This study presents the findings of an evaluation of the effect on reconviction of three general offending behaviour programmes in the English and Welsh Probation Service with adult male offenders. Method . The study employed a quasi‐experimental design comparing the reconviction rates of three groups: offenders who were allocated to and completed a programme, offenders allocated to a programme but failed to complete, and a comparison group. Results . The main finding from the analyses indicated that, controlling for salient population factors, the offenders who had completed a programme had a lower rate of reconviction as compared with non‐completers and comparison groups. Additionally, the non‐completers had a higher rate of reconviction than the comparison group. Conclusions . The findings are discussed in light of the extant literature and a range of explanations is presented.     

Sexual predator civil commitment: a comparison of selected and released offenders

This study compared two groups of sex offenders who were considered for civil commitment under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act: Two hundred twenty-nine sex offenders who were recommended by forensic evaluators to be civilly committed and 221 sex offenders who were recommended for release. It was hypothesized that selected offenders would be more likely to display risk factors for sex offense recidivism than those who did not meet criteria. Data analyses revealed that selected offenders, as a group, scored significantly higher on actuarial risk assessment instruments. There were also significant differences between the groups on other risk factors that have been empirically correlated with sexual recidivism. Selected offenders had higher frequencies of paraphilia diagnoses and antisocial personality. These findings supported the hypotheses and suggested that evaluators are correctly selecting for civil commitment those sex offenders who have a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and who are at higher risk for reoffense.     

Insane Sex Offenders: Psychiatric and Legal Characteristics of Sexual Offenders Found Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity

There is little known about sexual offenders hospitalized under forensic commitment statutes such as not guilty by reason of insanity (NGRI). We conducted a chart review to delineate the demographic, clinical, and legal characteristics of NGRI sexual offenders (n = 68) committed to the California Department of State Hospitals—Napa, including 41 found NGRI for a sexual offense and 27 found NGRI for a nonsexual offense. The two groups did not differ significantly in their demographics, psychiatric diagnoses, victim characteristics, or recidivism risk as measured by the Static‐99R. Those found NGRI for a sexual offense were older at the time of their first criminal and first violent offense, younger at the time of their committing offense, and had fewer prior total convictions and sexual offense convictions. These findings may indicate that sexual offenders found NGRI for a sexual offense are less antisocial than those found NGRI for a nonsexual offense.     

Accuracy of the static-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland

The Static-99 is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument. Various international validation studies have found satisfactory to good predictive validity for the Static-99, with the area under the curve (AUC) between 59% and 95%. This study is the first evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 among sex offenders in Switzerland. The Static-99 scores of 69 violent/sex offenders in Switzerland were assessed using data from their psychiatric assessments. Recidivism was operationalized as reconviction assessed from penal records. The Static-99 risk levels were predictive for recidivism (AUC = .758) among our population. The results are discussed on the basis of the literature.     

Fines and Justice Administration: The Experience of the Federal Republic of Germany

As part of the penal code revised in 1969, the Federal Republic of Germany increased its reliance on fines, including the introduction of day-fines, in lieu of short-term imprisonment for minor offenses. The previous trend toward the use of fines was accelerated by the requirement that courts order imprisonment only in exceptional cases. Traffic cases were particularly affected. The qualities of the offense and the absence of previous offenses, rather than an individualized study of the offender, continued to be the dominant criterium influencing the choice of a fine. The chief effect of day fines was higher amounts applied to the more affluent defendants; the amount of the fine appeared to have no effect on subsequent recidivism. For first offenders, fines were superior to imprisonment in avoiding reconviction. Day-fines were no more effective (but not less effective) than imprisonment in the instance of traffic offenses. Fines were superior to other sanctions for petty property offenders but not for career thieves.     

Evaluating the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP): Results from a Randomized Experiment

Using a randomized experimental design, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP), an offender reentry pilot project implemented in 2008. In an effort to reduce recidivism, MCORP attempted to increase offender access to community services and programming by producing greater case management collaboration between caseworkers in prison and supervision agents in the community. The results showed that MCORP significantly improved employment rates, decreased homelessness, broadened offenders’ systems of social support, and increased the extent to which offenders participated in community support programming (mentoring, restorative justice services, and faith‐based programming). The findings further revealed that MCORP significantly reduced all three types of reoffending (rearrest, reconviction, and new offense reincarcerations) but did not have a significant impact on supervision revocations for technical violations. The evidence suggests that MCORP was effective in decreasing reoffending largely because it increased the extent to which offenders were employed, involved in community support programming, and able to develop systems of social support.     

The effect on reconviction of an intervention for drink-driving offenders in the community

This study reports an evaluation of the Drink-Impaired Drivers program in the English and Welsh probation service. Participants were adult male offenders who had been convicted of a drink-driving offence and were serving community sentences. The 1-year drink-drive reconviction rates were compared for offenders who completed the program, offenders who started but did not complete the program, and a comparison group who were not allocated to the program. At 1-year follow-up, there was no reconviction among offenders who had completed the program. Multivariate analysis showed that the noncompleters had a significantly higher rate of reconviction than the completers and comparison group.     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.