Demographic trends in the Soviet Union

Current population trends in the USSR are reviewed, with particular reference to data available from the 1981 census. Topics considered include regional demographic variations, ethnic fertility differentials, the effects of deteriorating health care, and the continuation of Islamic cultural influences. The political and economic consequences of current demographic trends are discussed.     

Population growth and foreign policy

Australian foreign policy is examined in light of the population issue and its relationships to its developing Asian neighbors. Rapid population growth has been a 20th-century phenomenon. In the ESCAP region, almost all governments are anxious to reduce growth rates and welcome international assistance for population programs. The motivation of these governments seems to be both political and economic. Asian countries do not share the view expressed at Bucharest by Latin American and African representatives that high population growth rates are not a problem. Results of national family planning programs in 16 developing Asian countries are assessed. Major fertility decline has only occurred so far in the most prosperous of these countries. Future fertility trends are hard to predict. Present inadequate knowledge of the determinants of human fertility and limited knowledge regarding fertility limitation techniques hamper progress in population reduction. Australia has aided these countries in demographic training and data collection. For both economic and humanitarian reasons, this aid should be extended to program implementation.     

Changes of ethnic composition in the Baltic States

"The aim of this article is to analyze changes in the ethnic structure in the Baltics. The publication of the results of the 1989 Census data allows one to analyze the dynamics of ethnic structure in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania since the 1920s." The author notes that "as a result of significant changes in all demographic processes in the 90s, the proportion of the titular nationalities in all three Baltic States has increased for the first time, while the proportion of Slavs, particularly of Russians, decreased."     

Crystallizing and Emancipating Identities in Post-Communist Estonia

This article concerns collective identities in the context of EU enlargement and the post-Soviet transition of Estonian society, particularly of the two main ethno-linguistic groups: ethnic Estonians and the Russian-speaking population in Estonia. The empirical basis of the study is formed by factor structures of self-identification. The data were obtained from nationally representative surveys carried out in 2002, before Estonia joined the EU, and in 2005. The thinking patterns behind the structures of self-categorization are discussed mainly on the basis of theoretical concepts of individualization and transition culture. For background information, comparative data collected in Latvia (2006) and in Sweden (2003) are used. The survey results reveal that in the post-communist transformation, EU integration and spread of global mass culture have homogenized the mental patterns of the Estonians and the Russians. It is characteristic of post-communist Estonia that both minority and majority groups have utilized trans-national and civic identity and individualistic patterns of self-identification in terms of (sub)culture and social and material achievement, extracted from social norms and existing structures. Surveys confirm that for political actors in both Estonia and Russia it is hardly possible any more to create a common umbrella identity for the Russians in Estonia—the self-designation patterns of the Estonian Russians have been emancipated during the transition period.     

Demographic trends in Latvia

A review of recent demographic trends in Latvia is presented based on a variety of published sources. The impact of the two world wars on the population of Latvia is first examined. Consideration is then given to sex distribution, age distribution, rural-urban residence, nuptiality, and birth and death rates. Particular attention is paid to migration to Latvia from elsewhere in the USSR and to the ethnic balance of the population.     

Assessing electronic service delivery in municipalities: determinants and financial consequences of e-government implementation

In the Netherlands, electronic service delivery has become an important issue in many municipalities. Using the Internet for service delivery is seen as an important element of e-government. Based on 2014–2016 panel data for all Dutch municipalities, we show that there is a large variety among the municipalities in the extent to which they offer their service delivery digitally. By exploring the factors that may explain the differences among the municipalities, some trends can be discerned. Most notably is the strong relationship of e-government adoption with demographic characteristics, such as population, population density and both older age and younger age groups. Remarkably, we did not find an influence of education and income. Finally, we did not observe a relation between municipal allocated costs and level of e-maturity, hereby leaving the question open if and how e-government can lead to cost reductions.     

“A minimum of urbanism and a maximum of ruralism”: The Cuban experience

The case of Cuba provides social scientists with reasonably good information on urbanization policies and their implementation in 1 developing country committed to socialism. The demographic context is considered, and Cuban efforts to eliminate the rural-urban contradiction and to redefine the role of Havana are described. The impact of these policies is analyzed in terms of available data on urbanization patterns since January 1959 when the revolutionaries marched into Havana. Prerevolutionary urbanization trends are considered. Fertility in Cuba has declined simultaneously with mortality and even more rapidly. Projections assume a 1.85% annual growth rate, resulting in a population of nearly 15 million by the year 2000. Any estimate regarding the future trend in population growth must depend on prognosis of general living conditions and of specific government policies regarding contraception, abortion, female labor force participation, and child care facilities. If population growth in Cuba has been substantial, but less dramatic than that of many other developing countries, urban growth presents a similar picture. Cuba's highest rate of growth of the population living in urban centers with a population over 20,000, in any intercensal period during the 20th century, was 4.1%/year for 1943-1953. It dropped to 3.0% in the 1953-1970 period. Government policies achieved a measure of success in stemming the tide of rural-urban migration, but the aims of the revolutionary leadership went further. The objective was for urban dwellers to be involved in agriculture, and the living standards of the rural population were to be raised to approximate those of city dwellers. The goal of "urbanizing" the countryside found expression in a program designed to construct new small towns which could more easily be provided with services. A slowdown in the growth of Havana, and the concomitant weakening of its dominant position, was intended by the revolutionary leadership. Offical policies have been enunciated that connect the reduction in the dominance of Havana with the slowdown in urban growth and the urbanization of the countryside. Evidence is presented which suggests achievements along all of these dimensions, but by 1970 they were, as yet, quite limited.     

EUROPEANIZATION IN MANAGING EU AFFAIRS: BETWEEN DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE,A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ESTONIA,HUNGARY AND SLOVENIA

Scholarly research into Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia has shown that the idiosyncrasies of the new EU countries (especially with respect to institutionalizing and centralizing the co‐ordination of core executives in managing EU affairs at home) persist. They are complemented by trends toward convergence (such as growing co‐ordination efforts and a common tendency: that of the prime minister to be the centre of co‐ordination). In this article external Europeanization pressures, national administrative traditions (the legacies of both pre‐communist and communist systems), and the patterns of party competition that cause variations in politico‐administrative relations, are tested as possible explanatory variables of differences seen in the three countries when managing EU affairs. While national administrative traditions play similar roles to those seen in old(er) member states by filtering the EU‘s impacts, the effect of patterns of party competition on politico‐administrative relations when managing EU affairs has been filtered by the accession states’ national priorities of integrating with the EU.     

Reference Group Perspective on State Behaviour: A Case Study of Estonia's Counterterrorism Policies

For over a decade Estonia has been untouched by terrorist violence. However, notwithstanding the lack of a viable terrorist threat, the Estonian government adopted extensive counterterrorism measures. What explains the scope of Estonia's counterterrorism measures? The main proposition of this article is that the content of states' counterterrorism policies is shaped by the types of responses adopted by their reference groups. The evidence examined in the study demonstrates that Estonia's primary reference groups, NATO and the EU, have influenced the republic's counterterrorism programme. An unattractive target to terrorists, Estonia adopted broad counterterrorism responses to defend indivisible Euro–Atlantic security and to protect democratic values that terrorists attempt to destroy.     

Workforce 2000 demographic changes and their impacts

The U. S. workforce is becoming highly diverse. Human resource practices of the past will not be effective in managing tomorrow's heterogeneous labor force. Managing a diverse workforce is the key to future success, therefore identifying and learning the trends shaping the future of human resource is one of the most demanding tasks of managers. The purpose of this study is to examine the demographic bhanges occurring and that will continue to occur in the future. Changes such as the decrease in the size of the population and workforce, increase in the average age of the population and workforce, increase in the number of women, minorities, immigrants and contingent workers in the workforce are examined and their impacts on the society and industry are discussed.     

Self-employment in Estonia: Forced move or voluntary engagement?

This article examines the importance of ‘pull’ and ‘push’ factors in self-employment drawing upon the experience of post-socialist Estonia, where self-employment has risen sharply from a negligible level since 1989. Drawing on quantitative data, and also qualitative data, the article identifies a range of different types of self-employment in Estonia and explores the reasons for their different levels of success.     

Language,nation and citizenship: contrast,conflict and convergence in Estonia's debate with the international community

This paper investigates the clash of (language) ideologies in Estonia in the post-Communist period. In an analysis of changing Western recommendations and Estonian responses during the transition of Estonia from Soviet Socialist Republic to independent state, we trace the development of the discourses on language and citizenship rights. Different conceptions of the nation-state and of how citizenship is acquired, together with different approaches to human rights, led to disagreement between Estonian political elites and the political actors attached to international institutions. In particular, the Soviet demographic legacy posed problems.

We use a context-sensitive approach that takes account of human agency, political intervention, power, and authority in the formation of (national) language ideologies and policies. We find that the complexities of cultural and contextual differences were often ignored and misunderstood by both parties and that in their exchanges the two sides appeared to subscribe to ideal philosophical positions. In the following two decades both sides repositioned themselves and appeared to accommodate to the opposing view. In deconstructing the role of political intervention pressing for social and political inclusion and in documenting the profound feeling of victimhood that remained as a legacy from the Soviet period and the bargain that was struck, we hope to contribute to a deeper understanding of the language ideological debates surrounding the post-Communist nation-(re)building process.     

The aging of the population and health services

The demographic revolution--engendered in large part by modern medicine--which has led to the extraordinary and continuing increase in the number and proportion of elderly persons in the population has profound implications for health services. The elderly are disproportionately heavy utilizers of health care, primarily because of the prevalence of chronic disease. In the United States most health care for the elderly is financed through public funds, and costs have been increasing at an alarming rate. There is wide consensus that, for all the excellence of performance of the medical care system in treating acute episodes, care of chronic disease is frequently unsatisfactory in both quality and cost. Given the demographic imperatives, reform of mechanisms for chronic care is thus essential.     

Categorically wrong? Nominal versus graded measures of ethnic identity

Ethnic identity is a fundamental concept for understanding the dynamics of contemporary political change, but there has been very little exploration of how to measure ethnic identity and even less discussion of the implications of these measurements for understanding ethnic conflict. Through an analysis of Estonians and Slavs (Russians, Byelorussians, and Ukranians) in Estonia, we show that the ethnic identity of different groups is “salient” to different degrees and that this has significant implications for within-group agreement about political issues and for between-group differences. We show that nominal ethnic identity fully predicts political attitudes when ethnicity is highly salient because a highly salient ethnic identity sets in motion forces that cause individuals within a group to form similar attitudes based upon their ethnic identity. These forces were fully active for Estonians in Estonia in the early 1990s. In this case, nominal ethnic identity was sufficient to explain the attitudes of Estonians. But ethnicity must be treated as graded when it is not highly salient, as with Slavs in Estonia, because only degrees of ethnicity can explain the within-group differences in political attitudes that arise because of a lack of salient identity. Researchers, therefore, should typically treat ethnicity as if it were graded, and they should devise graded measures of it. Although nominal measures are sometimes appropriate (i.e., when ethnicity is highly salient), they will cause the researcher to miss something important in other situations. For example, our work suggests that if events discrupt the social processes that maintain a group’s sense of itself, then a graded measure of ethnicity is useful for predicting attitudes concerning ethnic identity and survival. In short, it is not categorically wrong to treat ethnicity as nominal, but it is best to begin by treating it as graded. Henry E. Brady, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, is co-author ofVoice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics andLetting the People Decide: The Dynamics of a Canadian Election. He has also written on elections, referendums, polotical behavior, and political methodology. Cynthia S. Kaplan, an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara, received her Ph.D. from Columbia University and has conducted extensive research in Russia, Estonia, and Tatarstan. She is the author ofThe Party and Agricultural Crisis Management in the USSR and numerous articles on comparative ethnicity, social movements, and political culture in the former Soviet Union.     

The world population situation

Population experts appear to be reaching a consensus that there has been a perceptible decline over the last decade in the growth of the world's population. The decline is accounted for by the "new demographic transition" in the less developed countries (LDCs). The decline in fertility rates began in the 1950s in some LDCs and became more widespread during the 1970s. The process has not yet begun in many of the LDCs. During the 1960s it was observed that the declines in birth rates (to levels of 30 of less per 1000) were occurring mostly in small countries. Many of these countries were islands with levels of social and economic development above the developing country average. The key question is whether the recent downward trend in fertility in LDCs will continue, stabilize at the current level, or rise again. A primary concern about the future is that the poorer and less developed countries will end up with an increasing share of the world's population, with the share of the developed countries declining from 34% to 22% over the 1950-2000 period. Considerable differential exists in demographic growth patterns among various regions. The 12 largest LDCs (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey) contain 55% of the current world population, and the fertility decline of these nations is expected to have the maximum impact. 7 of these countries have had fertility declines of 14-35%. The force of the "population momentum" must also be considered. Most developing country populations have a young age distribution with considerable potential for population growth even after the fertility level reaches a replacement level and the net reproduction rate equals 1.     

Estonia's success: prescription or legacy?

This paper focuses on Estonia's post-communist transition and attempts to determine why it has been more successful than the other two Baltic states, Lithuania and Latvia. It proposes that the central factor conditioning the outcome of the Baltic states' transition process was their different experiences during the Soviet period. Although the post-independence reform program itself played a crucial role in Estonia's successful transition, the paper concludes that the seeds for the country's achievements can actually be found in its Soviet legacy: Estonia's selection of policies, their implementation and the resulting positive outcome were all dependent on favorable conditions which had been established in Estonia during the Soviet period. Significantly, these positive conditions had not been created in the other two Baltic states.     

Rural migration and agrarian reform in Russia: a research note

This study focuses primarily on trends in rural-urban migration in Russia and the former Soviet Union. "New data suggest that a historic shift in migration patterns is underway in Russia, a change that may have profound long-term effects on agrarian reform and the nature of the Russian countryside. We begin with a short review of past rural migration trends and the rural demographic situation, in part using archival data for an oblast in central Russia. We will then present new data on rural migration. Finally, we assess the implications of rural migratory trends for agrarian reform in Russia."     

The Role of 9 May Commemorations in the Discursive Construction of Russophone Identity in Estonia

Abstract

Post-1991 attempts to integrate the Russian-speaking population in Estonia failed to address a significant identity aspect: their collective memory. The application of the mnemonic actor concept to ordinary individuals, rather than political elites, demonstrates the diverse constructions of collective memory narratives. Three prevailing types of narratives were identified through interviews, suggesting the heterogeneity of the local Russophone identity. All the narratives are attributed to the 9 May commemoration of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, but vary significantly in their temporal boundaries as well as in identity group inclusiveness. The latter is reflected in the respondents’ opposition to certain out-groups, especially Estonians or Russians in Russia.     

Urban growth in India: Demographic and sociocultural prospects

This paper explores some of the complexities of India’s urban growth since its first post-Independence census of 1951. Two levels of analysis are pursued as they affect one another: numerical or demographic changes, on one hand, and changes in living conditions, or sociocultural trends, on the other. The general conclusion of the study is that a process of “erosion” of traditional society is occurring, but it is occurring slowly— as a population more than twice the size of the entire United States continues to live in the countryside (and to increase at about twice the U.S. growth rate). Moreover, the sociocultural change is occurring in a non-linear fashion, as much that is traditional endures along side of the modern—rather than being replaced or obliterated by it. Finally, while the growth is occurring in cities of all sizes, the intermediate, regional capitals like Hyderabad and ahmedabad—rather than the largest cities such as Bombay or Calcutta—are experiencing the most rapid growth. Jay Weinstein is a professor of sociology and faculty research fellow at Eastern Michigan University. He has also taught at the University of Iowa (1972–77) and Georgia Institute of Technology (1977–86). He has been involved in comparative development studies for over twenty years, beginning with his Ph.D. fieldwork in India in 1971. His current interests include Canadian Studies and Eastern Europe. He visited Bulgaria in February–March, 1991 as a member of a U.S. Information Agency Citizen Exchange Project.     

Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study

The current international crisis in public finances has made financial sustainability a key issue for governments. Although the European Union (EU) and other international organisations have recommended governments to monitor demographic and economic variables, few studies have considered the influence of these variables on financial sustainability. This paper seeks to identify and analyse the drivers and risk factors that influence the financial sustainability of local government. The findings identify both risk factors (unemployment and population aged under 16 years) and drivers (budgetary outcome) of financial sustainability, which may constitute a useful basis for decision-taking by managers and policy-makers.