Social security and intergenerational redistribution: A generational accounting perspective

This paper is concerned with the analysis of intergenerational redistribution in a pay-as-you-go financed social security scheme. Instead of annual fiscal indicators, we apply generational accounts to calculate the intertemporal effects arising from a projected aging process. As a case study, the institutional settings and the parameterization of our model refer to the conditions found in Germany in 1989. Additionally, the intergenerational impacts of the German 1992 Pension Reform Act are taken into account. Our findings suggest that the major reform measures affect the distribution of the demographic burden between future and presently living generations. However, the burden is shifted in favor of the generations currently alive, thereby contradicting the explicit political intentions and aggravating the situation for future generations.     

Radical right‐wing voters from right and left: Comparing Sweden Democrat voters who previously voted for the Conservative Party or the Social Democratic Party

As in many other European countries, the political system has undergone rapid changes in Sweden while a radical right‐wing party – The Sweden Democrats (SD) – has grown from a negligible position into one of the country's largest parties. SD has been winning voters from both the right and the left sides of the political spectrum, and particularly from Sweden's two largest parties, the Conservative Party (Moderaterna, M) and the Social Democratic Party (S). The present study investigated the extent to which SD voters who previously voted for one of these two parties differ from each other, and compared these SD voters with current Conservative Party and Social Democratic voters. The results showed that 1) economic deprivation offers a better explanation for the past mobility from S, than from M, to the SD; 2) no group differences were found between previous M and S voters in attitudes connected to the appeal of an anti‐establishment party; and 3) views on the profile issues espoused by the radical right, most importantly opposition to immigration, did not differ between SD voters who come from M and S. However, SD voters – particularly SD voters who had formerly voted for the Social Democratic party – differed from the voters of their previous parties in several aspects. It is thus possible that many SD voters will not return to the parties they previously voted for, at least as long as the immigration issue continues to be of high salience in the society.     

Spatial elections with endorsements and uninformed voters: Some laboratory experiments

This paper presents a laboratory experiment designed to examine voting behavior, within a spatial election framework, when subjects are only endowed with endorsement information. In the experiment, subjects are assigned ideal points on a single-issue dimension. With the aid of an endorsement, their task is to vote for the candidate whose position is closer to them. The results show that under these conditions, subjects are in fact playing a lottery, where the odds of being correct is a function of spatial location. The study points out that researchers should be aware of an “information bias” in models that use this particular information source.     

Sincere and strategic voters: An Israeli study

The theoretical literature on voting behavior has shown that a rational voter may sometimes decide to vote for a candidate or party that does not constitute his or her first preference. Such voters are traditionally called strategic voters, in contrast to voters who act sincerely, i.e., those who always vote for their first preference regardless of how others are likely to vote. After discussing some of the problems associated with the definition of these two types of voters and suggesting a new operational definition, some attitudes and characteristics of these two types of voters are investigated. It was found that strategic voters constitute a very small percentage of the entire electorate, that their education level is significantly higher than that of sincere voters, that they tend more often to believe that polls influence voters' decisions and hence tend to delay their own final voting decision, that they tend more often than sincere voters to support small parties but do not tend more often than sincere voters to switch the party they decide to support from one election to the next, and that there is no significant difference between them and sincere voters regarding which governing coalition should/will form following an election.     

Social capital, lobbying and community-based interest groups

Recent discussions of social capital within the public choice literature have tended to focus on its role in solving collective action problems and promoting political accountability. Consequently, two areas of inquiry remain underexplored: (1) the role social capital plays in facilitating lobbying and rent seeking, and (2) the possibility that the availability of government resources can cause community-based groups to re-orient their stocks of social capital away from mutual assistance and toward lobbying and rent seeking. This article examines the relationship between social capital and lobbying in New Orleans??s post-Katrina recovery.     

Lifetime redistribution under the Social Security program: a literature synopsis.

This article provides a brief overview of the more important studies of lifetime redistribution under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) programs. Studies are categorized into two types, those that focus on redistribution across successive cohorts of workers or typical members of those cohorts and those that focus on the distribution of results across characteristics of interest within particular cohorts of workers. A list of related studies is provided at the end of the article for those interested in additional reading.     

Social contract theory and the semiotics of guns in America

We present a semiotic model of gun possession in America based upon the social contract theories put forward by Locke, Rousseau, and Rawls. Our central focus is upon the rights of self-preservation and the protection of property. The model proposes that American political history has cycled between two sets of symbolic threats to the social contract: tyranny imposed by a despotic central government and chaos represented by outsiders designated as savages. We propose that the two central semiotic images presented in the origin myth of the USA – that of pioneers living on a savage frontier and citizens rebelling against tyrannical government – endorse the individual possession of firearms. The specific models of guns chosen by private citizens are found to be closely intertwined with military patterns of usage; thus, the US military seems to serve as a rhetorical vessel from which cultural ideals of appropriate weaponry are derived. Examples of American autobiographical writings, contemporary gun advertising, and popular culture fictional narratives are presented to ground the arguments. We conclude that individual access to the use of deadly force for self-defense and the defense of property is the semiological basis of the American social contract and that US government efforts to reduce civilian possession of firearms are unlikely to succeed.     

Comparing absentee and precinct voters: A view over time

This paper examines the trend in absentee voting over the last 30 years in California. With the liberalization of absentee voting laws and practices, an increase in the numbers of absentee voters quickly followed. Absentee voters have already demonstrated their ability to influence the outcomes of local elections. An open question is what will become of absentee voters in the future. If they are the model for voting at home, and if technological advances allow such, then the behavior of current absentee voters may be indicative of the future electorate. The increasing trend of voters opting for absentee ballots is analyzed by using GLS on a random-effects time-series cross-section model with county-level data. The focus is on identifying structural factors such as changing voter demographics that have influenced the decision of voters to cast absentee ballots. Thirty-three recent statewide elections in California are the basis for this analysis, covering the statewide primary and general elections from November 1962 through November 1994. We find that the impact of demographics and time trends on absentee voting differ between general and primary elections. In addition, we find that a 1977 liberalization law in California had the effect of accelerating the usage of the absentee format. Finally, we conclude that absentee and precinct voting are substitutes in general elections but complements in primary elections.     

Comparing absentee and precinct voters: Voting on direct legislation

This paper addresses issues related to how absentee voters actually cast their ballots on propositions. If the liberalization of absentee laws changed either the composition or behavior of the electorate, then the outcome of the election may be affected. This paper tests whether the electoral behavior of absentee and precinct voters differs in regards to voting on propositions. The analysis is based on a sample of actual absentee and precinct voter ballots drawn from the approximately three million ballots cast in Los Angeles county for the 1992 general election. The analysis uses a nested model of voter participation and is estimated using the weighted exogenous sampling maximum likelihood method. We find that precinct and absentee voters do differ on both the propositions on which they cast votes and in their propensity to vote Yes for a proposition. For example, absentees appear to vote on fewer bonds and initiatives than do precinct voters. They also vote on fewer propositions dealing with state taxes, food taxes, and property taxes. In addition, given that a voter casts a valid vote, the propensity for absentee voters to vote Yes is higher on initiatives and propositions related to education, welfare, and health care than it is for precinct voters.     

Interests and information in referendum voting: An analysis of Swiss voters

Abstract. Referendums impose considerable informational demands on voters. Recent theoretical and empirical research has emphasized the different shortcuts and heuristics they may employ in deciding how to vote. Relying on a substantial series of votes at the national level in Switzerland, we provide empirical tests on how Swiss voters cope with the informational demands in referendum voting. We combine simple heuristics, like partisan cues and endorsements, with indicators of instrumental interests to explain citizens' choices in a series of votes.     

Median voters,political systems and public policies: An empirical test

This paper tests the median voter hypothesis that variations in policies across political systems are caused by variations in median voter preferences. The context of the empirical analysis is the tax policies of three groups of sub-national governments in England in three time periods. The results of a median voter model of tax policy variation are compared to the results of a mean voter model in different party systems and different electoral systems. The evidence provides little support for the median voter hypothesis.     

Congruence between voters and parties: The role of party-level issue salience

The level of congruence between parties and their voters can vary greatly from one policy issue to another, which raises questions regarding the effectiveness of political representation. We seek to explain variation in party–voter congruence across issues and parties. We focus on the hypotheses that (1) average proximity between the positions of voters and the party they vote for will be highest on the issues that the party emphasises in the election campaign and that (2) this relationship will be stronger for niche parties. We test these hypotheses using data on the policy preferences of voters, party positions, party attention profiles and salience on concrete policy issues in four countries: The Netherlands, Ireland, Germany and Sweden. Overall, we find that voter–party proximity tends to be higher on issues that the party emphasises. As these are the issues where parties typically have the greatest policy impact, this implies that the quality of representation is highest where it matters most. There is some limited evidence that the positive relationship between issue salience and proximity is stronger for niche parties. In sum, the quality of policy representation varies strongly with party-level issue salience and to a lesser extent with the type of political party.     

全面认识社会矛盾正确把握社会发展总趋势

在经济全球化的今天 ,正确认识当代社会主义和资本主义有非常重要的意义。马克思主义唯物史观关于社会矛盾的理论是正确认识和把握社会发展总趋势的思想武器 ,我们要正确认识资本主义基本矛盾在当代的新变化 ,正确认识社会主义发展的历史进程 ,坚定建设有中国特色社会主义的信念。     

Rational inattention and politics: how parties use fiscal policies to manipulate voters

Public Choice - We model a two-party electoral game with rationally inattentive voters. Parties are endowed with different administrative competencies and announce a fiscal platform to be credibly...     

Values and candidate evaluation: How voters respond to allegations of sexual harassment

How do voters respond to candidates accused of sexual harassment? The literature on political scandals demonstrates that candidate characteristics, scandal type, and voter characteristics matter; as well as party affiliation. However, empirical evidence suggests that not all co-partisans react the same way. Why is this the case? Our study uses Schwartz's (1996) theory of values to hypothesise that voters prioritising ‘universalism’ and ‘benevolence’ are less likely to vote for candidates accused of sexual harassment compared to voters who prioritise ‘self-enhancement’ values. Using an original, mixed methods, online survey experiment (n = 704), we show that American voters do become less favourable towards candidates linked to allegations of sexual harassment; but a sizeable minority would nevertheless vote for a co-partisan candidate accused of sexual harassment. Values are an important mechanism to explain this heterogeneity. Qualitative data corroborates our findings, and helps explain why sexual harassment allegations are not always a barrier to electoral success.