Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics

Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths,pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accuratestatistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive neweconometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on thelogic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzlein the rational deterrence literature: the divergence betweentheory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findingsof quantitative studies, on the other, on the issue of the roleof capabilities and willingness in the initiation of disputes.It also makes the case that different methodological traditions,rather than settling into "separate but equal" status, can insteadinform and enrich one another.     

Social Attitudes and Political Party Preference Among Swedish Youth

Differences in social attitudes between youthful supporters of different Swedish political parties were studied within a cluster sample of 783 Swedish high school students. Analyses of variance disclosed that, overall, respondents with different political party preferences differed with respect to social attitude dimensions: Political-Economic Conservatism, Social Inequality, Punitiveness, Militarism, Pro-western Sentiments, Racism, Xenophobia and Religion in that order. Multivariate, logistic regression analysis disclosed, among other things, that (1) the issue of political-economic conservatism (i.e. 'left-right') was a highly salient one for all party supporters with the exception of fascists, and (2) with the exception of Political-Economic Conservatism, different combinations of social attitudes were shown to discriminate any given party from all other parties. The theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.     

The Dynamics of Party Preference Change in Britain, 1991–1996

The paper examines individual-level data from the first six waves of the British Household Panel Survey, 1991–96. The analysis shows that changes in party support in this period were significantly affected by two sets of factors that have traditionally been regarded as important sources of changes in voters' political preferences: ideology and personal economic experiences. Ideological change is demonstrated to have much stronger direct effects on party preference than economic factors. However, both objective economic conditions and subjective economic perceptions are shown to have significant effects on ideological change itself, implying that economic factors also exert important indirect effects on voters' partisan preferences. These individual-level findings provide important corroboration for the results of aggregate-level studies, which have consistently found that economic factors—and in particular economic perceptions—play a major role in determining patterns of partisan support.     

Temporal Order and Causal Inference

Measures of change in pairs of attitudinal variables can provideimportant insights into the structure of the political beliefsystems of mass publics. Panel data reveal evidence of the greatercentrality of some idea elements rather than others in the contextof short-term dynamic constraint. Specification of the theoreticallyrelevant voter attributes makes it possible to test for expectedstructural differences connecting policy related predispositionsand policy preferences; specification also makes it possibleto test propositions involving the reciprocal effects of attitudesand emerging vote preferences. Some of the more helpful specificationsdisclose the extent to which population heterogeneity producesa blurred image of relationships when analysis is based on thetotal electorate rather than limited to voters or subsets ofvoters specified by theoretical criteria.     

主体复杂性论略

主体复杂性问题是当代社会实践和复杂性探索的前沿问题,文章考察了主体复杂性问题更加突出的根据,揭示了主体结构与功能的复杂性,阐明了全面提高主体综合素质是一个复杂的过程。     

Systems Theory and Complexity: Introduction

In this paper the central ideas and history of complexity theory and systems theory are described. It is shown how these theories lend themselves to different interpretations, and different interpretations lead to different political conclusions.     

Complexity and Rationality in Public Life

Increasing complexity in the contemporary world calls into question prevailing notions of rationality in public policy and political life. Even in their most refined forms, instrumental-analytic strategies of decision are inherently limited when confronted with complexity. Communicative rationality, rooted in the intersubjective understanding of competent actors, could cope more effectively with complex social problems. By implication, political institutions grounded in instrumental rationality may be less effective than those providing for reasoned discourse among concerned actors.     

复杂和不确定性条件下的危机管理

关于危机管理的具体过程,不同的学者具有不同的界定,主要有奥古斯丁的六阶段模式、罗伯特.希斯的4R模式、米特罗夫和皮尔森的五阶段模式、国内学者的四阶段模式。构建政府危机管理体系,可以保证社会稳定,恢复经济秩序,维护其公信力和合法性。政府危机管理体系包括:建立危机预警系统,制订危机应对计划;设立危机协调机构,构建危机应对系统;增强危机应对意识,提高危机应对能力;完善危机管理机制,健全危机管理法制。     

People, Place and Party: Describing Party Activism

The aim of this article is to present a structure for the historical study of party activism. Based on research carried out on the activities of the Social Democratic Federation (SDF) between 1884 and 1911, the article puts forward the case that current understandings of that organisation should be reassessed to include the notion of the 'political journeys' of the activists. Instead of focusing exclusively on ideology, the article suggests that other poles or features such as locality and collective biography should be used. If the organisation is viewed from a wider perspective and with a longer exposure time, then, this article argues, a clearer picture presents itself.     

Causal inference and American political development: contrasts and complementarities

Public Choice - Causal inference and American political development (APD) are widely separated and (to some) fundamentally incompatible tendencies within political science. In this paper, we...     

Party Platforms with Endogenous Party Membership

This paper proposes and analyzes a model of how the behaviorof voters and that of potential party activists togetherdetermine party membership and the ideological characteristicsof party platforms. Membership decisions are based onexpressive motivations, whereas platforms are chosenstrategically. Part of the ideological spectrum may remainoutside both parties because of alienation or indifference.     

Directionality Theory: Neo-organicism and Dialectical Complexity

In this paper I shall examine the evolution of directionality theory expressed as organicist, dialectical approaches to the nature of reality and conclude with an assessment of its newly expressed form, that of complexity theory. In the history of ideas before complexity theory, Hegelian philosophy came closest to providing a systematic, organicist and evolutionary approach to the comprehension of life as a complex adaptive system moving in a particular direction and of knowledge as a conceptual complement of the achievements of self-organised physical and biological evolution. In the work of Murray Bookchin, we find a neo-Hegelian iteration of the directionality thesis expressed as the theory of dialectical naturalism. Beyond Bookchin, in the last few decades we have seen the emergence of new ways of understanding complex systems. Complexity theorists have provided novel insights into the way complex systems evolve and produce increasing states of complexity and diversity. I shall argue that these new insights provide important links to the directionality tradition of Aristotle and Hegel. However, the elements of chance and uncertainty within complexity theory are at odds with the more deterministic aspects of dialectical naturalism. The tensions between these two perspectives shall be resolved through the synthesis of dialectical complexity.     

Education and Political Participation: Exploring the Causal Link

One of the most consistently documented relationships in the field of political behavior is the close association between educational attainment and political participation. Although most research assumes that this association arises because education causes participation, it could also arise because education proxies for the factors that lead to political engagement: the kinds of people who participate in politics may be the kinds of people who tend to stay in school. To test for a causal effect of education, we exploit the rise in education levels among males induced by the Vietnam draft. We find little reliable evidence that education induced by the draft significantly increases participation rates.     

Investigating the Causal Effects of Arts Education

There is a paucity of research on the causal relationship between arts learning and educational outcomes. Investigating these relationships has become imperative as policymakers increasingly prioritize empirical evidence of educational impacts, which often leads to curriculum narrowing that favors traditionally-tested subjects. Employing a randomized controlled trial with 42 elementary and middle schools in Houston, Texas, we find that randomly assigning arts educational opportunities reduces disciplinary infractions, improves writing achievement, and increases students’ emotional empathy. Students in elementary schools, which were the primary focus of the program, also experience increases in school engagement, college aspirations, and cognitive empathy. As the first large-scale randomized control trial of arts learning in an authentic school setting, these findings provide strong evidence that the arts can produce meaningful impacts on students’ academic outcomes and social-emotional development. Education policymakers should consider these benefits when assessing the role of the arts in schools.