America’s unreported economy: measuring the size, growth and determinants of income tax evasion in the U.S.

This study empirically investigates the extent of noncompliance with the tax code and examines the determinants of federal income tax evasion in the U.S. Employing a refined version of Feige’s (Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund 33(4):768–881, 1986, 1989) General Currency Ratio (GCR) model to estimate a time series of unreported income as our measure of tax evasion, we find that 18–23% of total reportable income may not properly be reported to the IRS. This gives rise to a 2009 “tax gap” in the range of $390–$390–540 billion. As regards the determinants of tax noncompliance, we find that federal income tax evasion is an increasing function of the average effective federal income tax rate, the unemployment rate, the nominal interest rate, and per capita real GDP, and a decreasing function of the IRS audit rate. Despite important refinements of the traditional currency ratio approach for estimating the aggregate size and growth of unreported economies, we conclude that the sensitivity of the results to different benchmarks, imperfect data sources and alternative specifying assumptions precludes obtaining results of sufficient accuracy and reliability to serve as effective policy guides.     

Compensation of Uncertain Lost Earnings

The present value of expected lost earnings is in the Law and Economics literature normally regarded as the amount that makes a victim fully compensated at income losses. However, the present value measure disregards risk-aversion. In the framework of the von-Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory the risk-averse victim will be made whole by a compensation smaller than the present value of the stream of uncertain lost earnings. A rule for determining an immediate certainty equivalent for lost potential earnings when the victim is risk-averse is suggested. The equivalent depends not only on the degree of risk-aversion, but also on the correlation between future losses. The legal practice varies, but in many jurisdictions judges tend to pay less than the present value for uncertain lost earnings, which is in accordance with our results.     

A Hard Look at What We Know (and Still Need to Learn) About the "Costs" of the Exclusionary Rule: The NIJ Study and Other Studies of "Lost" Arrests

The controversy over a "good faith mistake" exception to the exclusionary rule and the 1982 National Institute of Justice study of the effects of the rule in California have focused attention on the "costs" of the rule. This article reviews the NIJ study and seven other relevant studies and concludes that the NIJ study's claim that the rule has a "major impact" on the disposition of felony arrests is misleading and exaggerated. California data show that prosecutors reject only 0.8% (8 in 1,000) of felony arrests because of illegal searches. The effect of the rule is concentrated in drug cases in which the rejection rate by prosecutors is 2.4% (not 30%, as suggested by the NIJ study), but the rejection rate for non-drug arrests is less than 0.3%, and the rate is even lower for violent crimes. Even if one looks at the cumulative effect of the rule through all stages of the felony process in California, only about 2.35% of felony arrests are lost because of illegal searches, and this is a high-side estimate based on potentially atypical samples. Moreover, studies of "lost arrests" have not differentiated between arrests resulting from bona fide crime investigations and arrests that resulted from arbitrary searches or arrests that were made to seize contraband, for harassment, or for purposes other than obtaining a conviction. The author concludes that available data show the cost of the rule is marginal, especially in view of the ambiguous nature of the lost arrests. Moreover, it is doubtful that a good faith mistake exception would save any substantial proportion of the arrests lost following illegal searches. In particular, an exception for searches conducted under an improper warrant would save only a negligible proportion of lost arrests.     

Medicare program; reporting of interest from zero coupon bonds--HCFA. Final rule

This final rule requires Medicare providers to report all interest expense and interest income from zero coupon bonds in the cost reporting period in which the interest was accrued. This final rule is necessary to add provisions to the Medicare regulations that specifically address the reporting by providers of interest expense and income from zero coupon bonds.     

More than the sum of its parts? Itemizing impairment in civil cases

Purpose. The purpose of the present study is to determine whether making multiple damage awards influenced civil mock jurors' assessments of those damage awards. Specifically, how does making one decision for pain and suffering damage awards versus two decisions (one for mental pain and suffering and physical pain and suffering) versus four decisions (one for loss of enjoyment of life, mental anguish, disfigurement, and physical disability/impairment) influence overall non‐economic damage awards. Methods. One hundred twenty undergraduates from a psychology participant pool read a case vignette that included information regarding four types of injuries that the plaintiff endured: loss of enjoyment of life, mental anguish, disfigurement, and physical disability/impairment. Participants were randomly assigned to render either one award for pain and suffering, two awards (one for physical pain and suffering and one for mental pain and suffering), or four awards (one for each pain and suffering element). Results. Results indicated that participants who rendered four awards provided significantly higher overall non‐economic damage awards than participants who provided one overall award. The variability of damage awards also increased as the number of damage awards increased. Conclusions. Itemizing non‐economic damage awards into distinct injury categories can lead to an increase in overall non‐economic awards. Members of the legal arena should be cautioned against itemizing damages to prevent variability in non‐economic awards.     

Household survey data,econometrics and economic transition

This paper explores some of the possible uses of household survey data for the analysis of the process of economic transition. It is argued that such data are particularly valuable for work on the distributional effects of transition, using simulation techniques of various kinds. Some examples are given, focusing on: labour supply; indirect taxation; and the cost and effectiveness of the Hungarian personal income tax and social security systems under alternative assumptions about changes in the distribution of gross earnings and the level and incidence of unemployment.     

Economic freedom and economic growth in India: What is the empirical relationship?

The recent moves of the Indian economy towards further opening up of the economy with less government control has brought about changes in its policy structure. The objective of this study is to test the hypothesis that greater economic freedom leads to higher levels of economic growth in a federal system like India where business regulations, taxation, and government spending differ widely across states. Pooled linear regression model is applied to categorical data containing economic freedom and its three components as independent variables, and growth rates of income per capita and gross state domestic product as dependent variable, for a panel of twenty states for three time periods, 2004/2005, 2006/2007 and 2009/2010. While examining this relationship, the variables like initial income per capita, initial literacy rate, sectoral composition, and inflation rate are taken as control. The results tend to establish the fundamental effects of economic freedom in fostering economic growth. Three individual dimensions of economic freedom namely size of government, strong rule of law, and flexible regulations governing credit, labour, and product markets are likely to exert beneficial impacts on income growth. Initial income per capita exerts a positive impact, thus proving the prevalence of regional divergence on this front. High human capital, greater share of the services and inflation exert direct impact on growth.     

论国际商会国际仲裁院裁决的国籍

尽管国际商会国际仲裁院设在法国巴黎,但是由该院管理的适用该院仲裁规则做出的裁决,并不当然具有法国的国籍,因为确定国际商事仲裁裁决的国籍主要标准是仲裁地点。根据ICC仲裁规则,仲裁地点可以由当事人约定,也可以由仲裁院决定,而无论是当事人约定还是仲裁院决定的仲裁地点,可以在法国,也可以是法国以外的国家和地区。因此,ICC仲裁院的仲裁庭适用该院仲裁规则做出的ICC裁决的国籍,取决于特定仲裁案件所涉及的法律意义上的仲裁地点所在国,而不是仲裁机构所在的国家。     

Bonus to reward states for high performance under the TANF program. Administration for Children and Families, HHS. Final rule

The Administration for Children and Families is issuing final regulations to implement section 403(a)(4) of the Social Security Act. This provision authorizes bonuses to high performing States in meeting the purposes of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Block Grant (the TANF program). We will base the bonus awards in FY 2002 and beyond on work measures (substantially the same work measures currently in effect for the FY 1999-2001 awards); measures that support work and self-sufficiency related to: participation by low-income working families in the Food Stamp Program, participation of former TANF recipients in the Medicaid and State Children's Health Insurance Programs (SCHIP), and receipt of child care subsidies; and a measure related to family formation and stability (increase in the number of children in the State who reside in married couple families). Bonus funds of up to $200 million each year were authorized for awards in fiscal years 1999 through 2003. This rule specifies a formula for allocating these funds in FY 2002 and FY 2003. The amount awarded to each high performing State may not exceed five percent of the State's family assistance grant. Earlier, we issued program guidance covering bonus awards in FY 1999, FY 2000, and FY 2001. We published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to cover awards beginning in FY 2002 on December 6, 1999 (64 FR 68202). In a related regulatory action, we are amending 45 CFR Part 265, the TANF Data Collection and Reporting Requirements, to reduce the burden of reporting data on Separate State Program-Maintenance of Effort (SSP-MOE) programs. This amendment will allow waivers of certain reporting requirements under limited circumstances.     

Reversed Solidarity in Pension Plans

There is a unexpected phenomenon in the majority of complementary pension plans in the Netherlands. Unlike other arrangements that are the result of collective bargaining and decision making, these pension plans increase the inequality in the distribution of (lifetime) income. In those plans, persons without a career contribute to the payment of pension provisions of those with a career. Generally speaking, this implies that blue-collar workers and women pay for the pensions of white-collar workers, who are mostly men. For some of the contracting parties, the terms of the pension contract seem to be disadvantageous and suboptimal. The question arises as to why these contracts are being concluded and how they can survive in a competitive environment. Moreover, since the pension plans are the result of collective bargaining between the organisation of employers and the labour unions, the question arises as to how reversed solidarity fits the alleged redistributive goal of the labour unions. The analysis leads to the following conclusions. Firstly, that information and transaction cost, collective agreements, legal barriers and market failures on substitute arrangements prevent the conclusion of optimal contracts. Secondly, employers would find the pension plan attractive because it discourages shirking, enhances productivity and the process of job matching and reduces labour turnover. Thirdly, a pension plan based on final salary is in the interest of the median voter in the labour union, who is older and earns a higher seniority wage than junior workers. Furthermore, in the given circumstances the pension plan enlarges union membership and the dues income of the union and endows the union leadership with more prestige and influence. Individual union members would not oppose such a pension plan for reasons of informational asymmetry, transaction cost and the inability to capture the full benefits of their actions.A comparison of the pension schemes of Belgium, Germany, France and the UK shows that there are large differences in the structure and content of retirement provisions. Reversed solidarity may also be part of the pension plans in Belgium and the UK.     

Differential inflation,Phillips curves,and price competitiveness in a new euro-member country

This article analyzes the inflation process before and after a new country with a middle-income joined the eurozone. It starts with comparative price level gaps in the European single market and with a reformulated basic macroeconomic model for a country adopting the euro. The inflation process in Slovenia is analyzed with the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve before adoption of the euro is a classical equation with the NAIRU and the nominal exchange rate as a control variable. It was expected that the Phillips curve would have to be modified after the euro was adopted. The Phillips curve after the euro was adopted should take into account the initial comparative price level gap, the law of one price, and the Balassa effect. The result is higher differential inflation; that is, national inflation is higher compared with the rate in the eurozone. Differential inflation may have a detrimental effect on export-driven catch-up growth. Instruments for taming inflationary pressure could include a higher unemployment rate and lower growth of labour unit costs.     

The Blameworthiness of Health and Safety Rule Violations*

Man‐made disasters usually lead to the tightening of safety regulations, because rule breaking is seen as a major cause of them. This reaction is based on the assumptions that the safety rules are good and that the rule‐breakers are wrong. The reasons the personnel of a coke factory gave for breaking rules raise doubt about the tenability of these assumptions. It is unlikely that this result would have been achieved on the basis of a disaster evaluation, or high‐reliability theory. In both approaches, knowledge of the consequences of human conduct hinders an unprejudiced judgement about where the blame for rule breaking lies.     

Response to Lindsay,Mansour, Beaudry,Leach and Bertrand's Sequential lineup presentation: Patterns and policy

This paper is a response to the earlier paper by Lindsay, Mansour, Beaudry, Leach and Bertrand (2009). We argue that eyewitness research is an important public good and that high‐quality in research and policy formulations offered to the public interest is required to maintain our standing of trust. We argue that even though sequential lineups have been successfully codified in some jurisdictions as the exclusive eyewitness identification procedure, the claim of sequential superiority is built upon errors in the research process and that the evidence of reduced false identification with sequential lineups is completely offset by reductions in correct identifications. We reject the idea that the loss of correct identifications can be dismissed as guessing on the basis that this is speculative and that there is no published empirical support for the idea. We reject the idea that false identifications are necessarily more valuable for society to reduce than are correct identifications to achieve. Improvements in eyewitness identification are important, and interesting lines of investigation are available. It is questionable whether the sequential lineup is important among them.     

Getting Out of Debt: Garnishment of Wage in Whose Interest?

Garnishment of wage as a way for creditors to enforce payment by unwilling or insolvent debtors, while very common in Germany and Switzerland, is not very successful. Based on a dynamic model of debtor behaviour, this paper explores two alternatives of reform. One is to reduce the rate of garnishment, which at present amounts to 100 percent of the wage income exceeding a defined subsistence level, thus probably destroying incentives to work. According to model simulations, reducing the rate of garnishment is likely to result in an increase of labour supply but a decrease of garnishment revenue per period. Second, the introduction of a debt release as it exists in the United States would have an ambiguous effect on labour supply. While providing debtors with a fresh start, it would result a partial loss for creditors. A Pareto improvement thus does not seem to be possible. When taxpayers as an involved third party are taken into account, however, a potential Pareto improvement appears attainable through debt release.     

Efficiency of 'Simple' Liability Rules When Courts Make Erroneous Estimation of the Damage

The literature on liability rules shows that the damage awards under a liability rule affect the efficiency of the rule. One crucial factor that could affect the damage awards and therefore the efficiency characteristics of liability rules is the error made by a court while estimating the harm suffered by the victims. In this paper efficiency property of what we label as 'simple' liability rules when courts make errors in estimation of the damage is studied in a unified framework. The paper provides a characterization of efficient simple liability rules and shows that the biased court errors act to change the efficiency characterization of simple liability rules. A necessary and sufficient condition for a simple liability rule to be efficient in the presence of upper-biased court errors is provided. The analysis is carried out in a quite general framework.     

论基于确立“新型产业结构”的税法修正

产业结构失衡已成为我国经济可持续发展的最大障碍之一,建立“新型产业结构”刻不容缓.税法在产业结构调整中具有很好的引导作用.但现行税法与“新型产业结构”的形成有一定的冲突,有必要在以下几个方面进行修正:扩大增值税征收范围、抵扣范围以及确定合理的扣除率;改变消费税的征税范围和计税依据;进一步改进企业所得税间接优惠方式和亏损转结的规定;扩大资源税征收范围和改变计税方式.     

Juries and Unpredictability in Products Liability Damage Awards

The size and variability of jury damage awards in tort cases has been a contentious issue for over a decade. Nevertheless, there has been little empirical work addressing the relationship between the size of jury awards to products liability victims and their compensable losses. This paper examines this relationship using a sample of California cases. A compensatory model of damages based on plaintiff, injury, and case characteristics explains a large proportion of the variance in damage awards suggesting that juries rely heavily on monetary and non-monetary loss estimates in determining damages. The evidence argues against charges of unpredictability, and indicates undercompensation on average.     

The Tort Remedy in Search and Seizure Cases: A Case Study in Juror Decision Making

Civil suits for damage awards against police officers alleged to have engaged in illegal searches have long been suggested as an alternative to the exclusionary rule as a remedy for police misconduct. A review of empirical literature on the incidence and outcomes of such suits suggests that defendant officers often prevail and that the awards do not seem large enough to produce the punishment and deterrence effect often claimed by proponents of the tort remedy. Using an experimental technique involving simulated trials and adults called for jury service as subjects, we examine the effects of two procedural aspects of such suits on juror awards. The extent of municipal liability and the substitution of the U.S. government as plaintiff do not appear to affect the incidence or size of compensatory or punitive damage awards. Denying jurors information about the outcome of the search does appear likely to increase damage awards. The article both explores factors affecting juror decision-making in these cases and illustrates the utility and limitations of the experimental method for testing suggested policy innovations.     

香港与内地仲裁裁决司法审查制度的借鉴和融合

通过对香港和内地在仲裁裁决司法审查范围、标准和技术方面的综合分析,本文认为两地在司法制度、法治发展和仲裁理念上的较大差异导致了两地在对待仲裁裁决司法审查上之截然不同。重要的是,香港法院对仲裁的支持态度及其具体审查操作的先进经验,可为内地在这一领域的改革提供重要指引。《香港与内地关于相互执行仲裁裁决的安排》实施近十年来,已逐渐出现两地仲裁界和司法界在审查制度面向上的趋同。惠于"一国两制"和"更密切经贸关系"的大背景,相信两地间商事仲裁的融合会更加蓬勃发展,为中国跨境商事活动提供更好的争端解决服务。