The Latest Intelligence Crisis

In the autumn of last year the National Intelligence Council issued a National Intelligence Estimate that states (in a portion of the NIE that has been published) with ‘high confidence’ that Iran years ago suspended its development of nuclear weapons. This paper questions the wisdom of a consensus intelligence document bound to be published in one form or another, and the soundness of the analysis in it, which pivots on speculation about Iranian decision making and on an ambiguity in the very meaning of ‘suspending’ a nuclear-weapons program while continuing to produce highly enriched uranium. These questions lead in turn to questions concerning the ambitious reorganization three years ago of the US intelligence system.     

应对经济危机冲击下的网络安全挑战

随着互联网技术的日益普及与发展，我国已经正式进入了网络信息社会。当前，全球经济出现的大范围的衰退，对我国的经济产生了冲击，互联网络安全也受到了影响。同时，网络安全作为社会公共安全中的重要组成部分，在当前情况下出现了诸多问题。本文通过对经济危机背景下网络安全的重要作用以及网络安全存在的问题进行分析，有针对性地提出了成立统一领导机构，加强网络信息监管，严厉打击网络犯罪，加大业内人员管理力度等建议，以确保网络安全万无一失。     

The Crisis at the CBI

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) experienced a reputational crisis after a number of allegations of sexual harassment. Leading members of the organisation resigned and its resources were depleted. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) attempted to fill the void. The organisation survived a confidence vote, but the result may be a permanently weakened organisation. Apart from the 2023 crisis, there are deeper structural problems in business representation.     

The Intellectual Crisis in Philanthropy

Defenders of modern philanthropic freedom often defend donor intent and celebrate voluntary action. Nevertheless, donor intent and voluntarism have often undermined the conditions of constitutional freedom. This paper proposes that philanthropy currently suffers an intellectual crisis very much like the intellectual crisis in public administration diagnosed by Vincent Ostrom. The Common Core State Standards initiative is a case study of the problems of epistemic drift in philanthropy and raises questions about whether merely defending donor intent and voluntary action for their own sake is sufficient. To escape philanthropy’s current intellectual crisis requires a clearer consideration of the epistemic choices that shape donor intent and voluntary action.     

The Financial Crisis: A Retrospective

Government efforts to manage the financial crisis and to promote economic recovery have been extensive over the past three years. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been distributed—and much of it now repaid—from the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The Federal Reserve holds more than $2 trillion in mortgage‐backed securities, collateralized loans to financial institutions, and other assets and liabilities to maintain liquidity in the financial markets. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act injected more than $600 billion into the economy through tax breaks, loans, contracts, grants, and entitlements. Congress also passed the Dodd‐Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010. Yet economic recovery remains flat. The author examines the reform effort to date, key points of its primary focus, and the politics of implementing the reform as a factor in eventual economic recovery. One component of the reform, the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, holds the greatest potential for changing the way consumers participate in the financial markets, but also has drawn the greatest debate and opposition. While regulatory reform alone will not revive the economy, a newly conceived and broadly participatory Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could simplify and streamline the complex linkages that contribute to the supply of credit.     

论当代资本主义的两难困局:从“滞胀”危机到“次贷”危机

当代资本主义在坚守资本主义根本制度的前提下进行了多次自我调整.凯恩斯主义"挽救"了资本主义,也给资本主义带来"滞胀"危机;新自由主义克服了"滞胀"危机,却加剧了贫富两极分化,引发了社会危机和次贷危机.当代资本主义两难困局表明,资本主义的自我调整不可能"医治"资本主义的"病症",社会根本制度的变革是解决问题的唯一路径;调整不是在强化"正统"资本主义的"元素",而是在为"新社会因素"的产生发挥着催生作用.     

The Imprisonment Crisis in America: Introduction

This article provides an overview of recent trends in imprisonment rates in America and introduces the articles in this issue of The Review of Policy Research. Incarceration rates have increased by more than 500 percent since the early 1970s and have now reached a rate of almost 700, higher than anywhere else in the world. The impact has been particularly hard on racial minorities, especially women (whose incarceration rate went from around 8 in 1975 to 59 in 2001). The “war on drugs” has been one of the main reasons behind the increases in imprisonment, along with the more general “get tough on crime” movement that began in the late 1970s. The articles in this issue center around how this recent trend in incarceration impacts the entire society, but especially poor communities. Several of the articles focus on race, age and gender as important variables, in addition to the tendency of the parole system to sort of “recycle” released prisoners back into the prison system.     

社会危机的形成机理研究

社会危机的形成机理主要是社会发展失衡导致的矛盾冲突,其管理机制包括决策机制、利益机制、动力机制、约束机制、预防机制与治理机制。     

The Crisis of German Social Democracy Revisited

This article analyses the dramatic electoral decline of German social democracy since 2003. It argues that the SPD's decision, under the leadership of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, to engage in welfare state retrenchment and labour market deregulation during the ‘Hartz reforms’ (2003–05) demoralised the SPD electorate. The SPD subsequently lost half of its former electoral coalition, namely blue‐collar voters and socially disadvantaged groups, while efforts to gain access to centrist and middle‐class voters have failed to produce any compensating gains. While the SPD's decline from a large to a mid‐sized party is part of a larger transformation of the German party system, no political recovery is possible for social democracy without a fundamental change of strategy, namely efforts to regain former voters by offering credible social welfare and redistributive policies. The SPD will not be able to delegate such policies in a ‘convoy model’ to other parties, such as the Left Party; nor will a modest ‘correction’ of the earlier course, such as has been attempted since 2009 under the leadership of current party chairman Sigmar Gabriel, be sufficient to recover lost electoral ground.     

The Banking Crisis: A Rational Interpretation

Modern macroeconomic models have been widely criticised as relying too much on rationality and market efficiency. However, their predictions about this crisis are being borne out by events. 'Crashes' are an integral part of an 'efficient market' capitalism and are brought on by swings in the news about productivity growth; this time nearly two decades of strong computer-based productivity growth were brought to a crashing halt by raw material shortages. This presages a slow recovery until innovation in material use frees growth up again as it did in the 1990s after the shortages of the 1970s.