Using Open-Source Data to Identify Participation in the Illicit Antiquities Trade: A Case Study on the Cypriot Civil War

The illicit trade in antiquities from conflict zones is clandestine and politicised and it very likely involves violent, organised criminals, including paramilitaries and terrorists; so reliable, detailed information is extraordinarily difficult to access. Nonetheless, open-source data may provide clues to the structure of the market. This article reviews the development of the Cypriot antiquities trade until the outbreak of the civil war in 1963, through the cultural heritage crisis that accompanied that conflict until the coup and invasion of 1974. Then, adapting an established method for studying the scale of a small, undisturbed illicit market, it gauges communities’ participation in looting during the civil war in Cyprus. It does so by analysing the find-spot and acquisition date information in collections of antiquities recovered before and during conflict, and cross-referencing them with demographic and historical information in order to identify the communities from which the looters probably came. It uses this crude categorical method in order to assess ethnically-based narratives of looting and trading in illicit antiquities. The evidence suggests that: before the conflict, there was no correlation between community and looting; during the civil war, due to economic and geopolitical factors, members of Turkish Cypriot communities were disproportionately involved in looting; at the same time, members of Greek Cypriot communities were far more involved in looting than has previously been recognised; Greek Cypriot archaeologists have misinterpreted the structure of the trade and consequently contributed to communalist policies and nationalist histories; and the antiquities policy of the Republic of Cyprus was one of the significant causes of the developments in the trade.     

On ‘Organized Crime’ in the illicit antiquities trade: moving beyond the definitional debate

The extent to which ‘organized crime’ is involved in illicit antiquities trafficking is unknown and frequently debated. This paper explores the significance and scale of the illicit antiquities trade as a unique transnational criminal phenomenon that is often said to be perpetrated by and exhibit traits of so-called ‘organized crime.’ The definitional debate behind the term ‘organized crime’ is considered as a potential problem impeding our understanding of its existence or extent in illicit antiquities trafficking, and a basic progression-based model is then suggested as a new tool to move beyond the definitional debate for future research that may help to elucidate the actors, processes and criminal dynamics taking place within the illicit antiquities trade from source to market. The paper concludes that researchers should focus not on the question of whether organized criminals- particularly in a traditionally conceived, mafia-type stereotypical sense- are involved in the illicit antiquities trade, but instead on the structure and progression of antiquities trafficking itself that embody both organized and criminal dynamics.     

A mountain or a molehill: is the illicit trade in cigarettes undermining tobacco control policy in South Africa?

This study estimates the size of the market for illicit cigarettes in South Africa between 1997 and 2007 in order to consider the impact of the illicit trade in cigarettes on the effectiveness of tobacco control policies. Estimates of the illicit market are made using data on smoking prevalence and simulations of smoking intensity. The paper shows that the size of the illicit market to have grown substantially from 1997 until peaking in 2000 between 9.4% and 11.5% of the total market. The most recent estimate for 2007 suggests that the illicit market occupied between 7.0% and 11.2% of the total market. These estimates are significantly lower than the anecdotal claims of the tobacco industry. Although the scale of the illicit market is significant it has not undermined tobacco control policy. Consumption in the total market, including both the illicit and legal market, has declined in size consistently. At the same time, tax revenue from higher excise taxes has offset the tax losses as a result of illicit trade.     

Size and scope of the tobacco trade on the darkweb

Globally, tobacco is responsible for the death of approximately 6 million individuals per year. In reaction, governments have enacted tobacco control policies that cope with the harmful effects of the drug. However, these policies have also created geographic price disparities and increased the effort needed to purchase legal tobacco products. The result was the creation of a new illicit tobacco market. While tobacco smuggling continues through conventional avenues, a new generation of traffickers have turned to a different source for the illicit distribution of tobacco – the internet, specifically the darkweb. The purpose of this paper is to describe the size and scope of illicit trafficking of tobacco on cryptomarkets, and the diverse types of tobacco-related products available on the cryptomarkets. Our analysis will provide guidance for policymakers, researchers, and all interested in the illicit trade of tobacco.     

Agricultural drug economies: cause or alternative to intra-state conflicts?

Through case studies selected among the world’s main drug-producer countries and regions (Afghanistan, Bolivia, Burma, Colombia, Morocco, Peru, and West Africa) this paper depicts the global scene in order to improve understanding of how agricultural illicit drug economies may foster the emergence of intra-state conflicts, help prolong intra-state conflicts or, conversely, prevent some crises. The paper thereby examines the complex connections between agricultural illicit drug production and intra-state conflict in the all-important context of underdevelopment and globalisation. Because it is illegal, drug production may affect international security, above all through the armed violence it creates and the uses to which resulting profits are put (financing of armed groups and criminal organisations, and even – as has been recently though mostly erroneously claimed – terrorist organisations [4, 5]. However, it is important to avoid restricting the question of drug production to security issues, and instead to examine the phenomenon overall in an analysis encompassing everything from the causes of the recourse to an illegal drug economy to the effects of official responses. Through case studies selected from the main regions of illegal agricultural drug production (Afghanistan, West Africa, Burma (Myanmar), Bolivia, Colombia, Morocco and Peru) this paper aims at improving our understanding of how such production might foster the emergence of conflicts, ease their prolongation or, conversely, prevent crises in certain situations. These three questions require examining the connections between the agricultural economy of illegal drugs and conflict in the all-important context of underdevelopment and of globalisation.     

Arms Prices and Conflict Onset: Insights from Lebanon and Syria

What drives the prices of arms and ammunition sold at illicit markets? Do the prices of illegal arms soar during episodes of marked insecurity, such as conflict onset? This article seeks to advance knowledge on the dynamics and determinants of weapons prices through the quantitative analysis of illicit arms market price data in Lebanon for the period February 2011 to September 2012. The article also examines the relationship between arms and ammunition prices in Lebanon, and reported conflict fatalities in Syria, as the period under study overlapped with the onset of conflict in the latter country. Key results include strong, statistically-significant correlations between the prices of arms and the prices of ammunition in Lebanon, as well as between the prices of arms and ammunition in Lebanon and reported conflict fatalities in neighbouring Syria. These findings highlight the value of monitoring illicit arms market prices, including prices for a diverse range of weapons and ammunition, to improve our understanding of both illicit markets and conflict dynamics. The strong correlations observed in the article also suggest that crowdsourcing methodologies used by organisations monitoring killings during the Syrian conflict can effectively capture variations in conflict intensity over time.     

The illicit arms trade: Cold War and Post-Cold War

This article considers the principal changes that haveoccurred in the illicit arms trade across the Cold Warand post-Cold War periods. It discusses the changednature of demand and the sources and means ofillicitly supplying arms to areas of conflict. Througha number of case studies it highlights the declininguse of illicit arms supply as a foreign policy tool,and the extent to which involvement in the trade isnow determined more by profit than policyconsiderations, with all the implications thesechanges have for control initiatives.     

Expanding the Borders of Common Article 3 in Non-International Armed Conflicts: Amending Its Geographical Application Through Subsequent Practice?

The geographic footprint of contemporary warfare often challenges the existing understanding of the term ‘non-international armed conflict’, a term not defined in international humanitarian treaty law. This article examines whether the opening lines of Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions include a geographical requirement. Controversy surrounds this question which until recently has received little attention. The customary interpretation of Common Article 3 is that it has a geographical scope of application limited to non-international armed conflicts which take place exclusively within the borders of a single member state (internal armed conflict). The 2016 ICRC Commentaries to the First Geneva Conventions challenges this traditional view and argues in favour of a broader interpretation of the scope of application of Common Article 3. This re-interpretation recently has gained traction in scholarship. The ICRC’s position serves as a possible solution to prevent a lacuna in humanitarian protection in situations where conflicts fit neither the understanding of ‘international armed conflict’ nor ‘internal armed conflict’. By evaluating the merits of the arguments posed by the ICRC, the article assesses whether the phrase ‘conflict not of an international character’, as included in Common Article 3, conclusively limits its geographical application to an armed conflict occurring within the boundaries of a single state.

     

Understanding parrot trafficking between illicit markets in Bolivia: an application of the CRAVED model

The CRAVED model has been used to understand theft variation in a whole host of hot products, including wildlife. Past research, however, has only applied the model at either the theft or illicit market stage to understand why particular products are stolen in high numbers. The CRAVED model has yet to be applied to the trafficking stage of hot products smuggled between illicit markets and, therefore, its applicability at this particular stage remains unknown. Using secondary data from the Los Pozos wildlife market in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, this study applies the CRAVED model to explain why parrot species are trafficked between illicit markets in Bolivia. This research finds that species that are more “available” and less “valuable” are more likely to be trafficked between illicit markets, suggesting that variation at the trafficking stage of the parrot trade can be explained by nearly the same CRAVED concepts as they do at the poaching stage. This study also finds that one-quarter of parrots in the Los Pozos market are trafficked to other cities, of which 99% are to the city of Cochabamba. These findings suggest that shutting down illicit markets and patrolling major roadways between cities can substantially reduce the illegal parrot trade.     

Conditions for Guilt-Free Consumption in a Transnational Criminal Market

It has been widely opined in discussions around a number of transnational criminal markets that where a global economic supply and demand relationship exists, demand reduction by way of consumer education and ‘awareness-raising’ may be an effective intervention in reducing illicit trade. It seems an obvious and sensible suggestion on the face of it, but just how amenable are consumers to being educated away from purchasing illicitly obtained and trafficked goods, and what are the barriers that stand in the way of that process of demand reduction through awareness-raising? This paper approaches these questions by asking what are the conditions for guilt-free consumption in the international trade in illicit cultural objects. The paper identifies seven such conditions, and concludes that in this global market we are witnessing the playing out of a common social story in which a powerful group of market capitalists and end-consumers employs a range of sociologically developed linguistic and performative strategies to obfuscate or legitimise their exploitation of a group of less powerful victims. If that is the context for the so-called debate about illicit antiquities, crime-reduction strategies involving consumer education seem considerably more difficult to achieve than has been widely recognised in policy discussions on transnational crime.     

Organized crime or crime that is organized? The parrot trade in the neotropics

The illegal wildlife trade is one of the most profitable illegal industries in the world, only behind the trafficking of drugs, guns, and humans. Because of the relative ease in poaching wildlife combined with the possibility of high profit margins, many assume that organized crime is heavily linked to the trade. One group of species that is poached, trafficked and sold in illicit markets throughout the world are parrots. While some have claimed organized crime groups are involved in the trade, parrot experts contend there is no evidence of organized crime being involved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the structural organization of the illegal parrot trade in the neotropics to determine if the trade is driven by organized crime or if it is a simply a crime that is organized. The following study is based on 38 interviews with parrot poachers, middlemen, wildlife market sellers, and others knowledgeable on the trade in multiple cities within Bolivia and Peru to better understand the organization of the trade. The results garnered from these interviews do not support the notion that organized crime is involved in the illegal parrot trade in either country. The vast majority of participants are freelance operators where there appears to be no formal organization between or amongst those operating in the parrot trade. Implications of findings are discussed.     

Markets and Corporate Conflict: A Substitution-Cost Approach to Business Litigation

This paper examines the phenomenon of conflict escalaton in business relations. A theory of when conflict between firms will proceed from informal relationship-preserving norms to more formal and destructive end games involving litigation is developed and tested. The central theoretical claim is that substitution costs serve as an impediment against the escalation of conflict. Data on market concentration and dollar flows between aggregate markets in the economy are used to develop measures of substitution costs. Measures of substitution costs and trade figures are also used to describe power advantages in markets. The theory is tested through a series of regression models. The main findings are that (1) when substitution costs are high, parties are less likely to escalate conflict and (2) asymmetric market relations result in less conflict escalation than symmetric ones. Empirical analysis indicates that substitution costs are related in predictable and meaningful ways to conflict escalation and business litigation.     

The Role of Emotional Security,Narrative, and Resilience for Youth and Families in Contexts of Armed Conflict

The far‐reaching devastation created by contemporary armed conflict puts children and families at risk. The goal of this article is to describe current research on the effects of armed conflict and political violence on families and youth with a focus on the roles of emotional insecurity and narratives of conflict that can persist long after the end of conflict. We describe how identity processes that are at the heart of many intergroup conflicts of the 20th and 21st centuries are linked with emotional insecurity and the historical and personal narratives of youth in these contexts. We conclude with general considerations for legal, medical, and mental health practitioners working with families who have experienced armed conflict.     

Illicit pharmaceutical networks in Europe: organising the illicit medicine market in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands

It has been widely suggested that the global market in counterfeit, falsified and illegally traded medicines has expanded at a tremendous rate in recent years, offering lucrative opportunities for criminal entrepreneurs with little legal risk. However, with a few exceptions, there has been little criminological research conducted on the trade’s actors and organisation. Of the few studies that are available, most position the supply of these products in the context of ‘transnational organised crime’, often presupposing the overwhelming presence of large-scale, hierarchical structures in the trade. This article, based on two extensive research projects in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, offers an account of the illicit supply of medicines in two European jurisdictions. The research outlines the nature and dynamics of the trade including the roles played by each national context as nodes in the global supply chain. The focus then shifts to the modus operandi, actors, online trade and social organisation in both countries. In contradistinction to the ‘transnational organised crime’ narrative, the empirical data outlined in this paper demonstrates that actors and networks involved in the trade are highly flexible and complex structures that straddle the categories of licit and illicit, online and offline, and global and local. This suggests that operations supplying illicit medicines vary largely in terms of size, reach, organisation and legality.     

EXAMINING THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET-HOMICIDE RELATIONSHIP: A PARTIAL TEST OF THE THEORY OF CONTINGENT CAUSATION

Recently, Zimring and Hawkins (1997) have suggested that drug markets are a “contingent cause” of the increase in homicide rates. That is, where structural conditions known to produce violence are already in place, the drug distribution‐homicide link may be exacerbated. This analysis uses hierarchical linear modeling to investigate two key research questions: (1) Is within‐city variation in illicit drug market activity positively associated with within‐city variation in homicide rates during the 1984–1997 period? (2) Is the illicit drug market‐homicide association contingent on preexisting violence conducive socioeconomic conditions? Using three measures of drug market activity, analyses provide affirmative evidence on both questions. Theoretical and research implications of these findings are discussed.     

“Shifting the stuff wasn’t any bother”: Illicit enterprise, tobacco bootlegging and deconstructing the British government’s cigarette smuggling discourse

This paper presents the results of interactions/interviews with an active tobacco bootlegger regarding his illicit entrepreneurial activity spanning his illegal career. This narrative is intended to portray a snapshot of a type of organised criminality within an illicit market place but seeks to add to the critical academic literature responding to State-led depictions of organised crime as an apocalyptic menace. The results of the fieldwork suggest that illicit market enterprise in this context is neither threatening nor predatory, is very ordinary and, crucially, is driven by insatiable consumer demand within local trading networks.     

The illegal trade of raptors in the Russian Federation

Wildlife trafficking, along with other green crimes, receives little attention from the criminological community. This study provides further knowledge of this black market, and exposes the structural harms that are associated with it, by examining the illegal trade in falcons in Russian Far East. The structural harms proposed here are that wildlife trafficking, and the illegal raptor trade in particular endangers the environment, is cruel to animals, and threatens national and human security because of its connection to other dangerous illicit activities. Through semi‐structured interviews, trade statistics, and online news sources, a framework is developed as to who is involved, how it is occurring, and where it is taking place as well as possible ways in which to curb this activity.     

Commodities and Terrorist Financing: Focus on Diamonds

Commodities, trade, and natural resources have long been part of the political economy of conflict, as soldiers and militants usually employ accessible means and methods to raise funds unless there is a clash with honestly held religious or ideological positions. Reports about the role of commodities in the financing of terrorist groups cover many areas of legal and illicit trade, foremost among these diamonds. A brief background to the diamond industry, with particular attention to vulnerabilities and their exploitation in conflict areas, provides the necessary context for two case studies about al-Qaeda (AQ) and Hezbollah. These utilize primary and secondary data to explore the linkages between diamonds and these particular groups. We found conflicting and weak evidence as well as vague language to describe interfaces between terrorist groups and the diamonds trade. We conclude that while there is cause for concern that this industry can be used to support terrorist activity, deeper factual grounding, meaningful context, and a more nuanced understanding of the diamond industry are necessary to fully inform policy makers and law enforcement about the connections between terrorist finance and the commodities trade.Research on which this paper is based was sponsored by a National Institute of Justice (NIJ) grant for a study of "Terrorist Finance and the Nexus with Transnational Organized Crime: Commodities Trade and the Social Organization of al Qaeda Groups," grant no. 2003-DT-CX-0001. We would like to thank Christian Dietrich and an anonymous peer reviewer for their very constructive comments.     

Smoking Guns: European Cigarette Smuggling in the 1990’s

This article concerns European cigarette smuggling over the past decade and examines the actors, structures and relationships which facilitated the illicit trade. It discusses the central role played by actors not traditionally associated with organised crime, such as multi-national tobacco companies, Swiss banks and the state security agencies of various Balkan states. It demonstrates how domestic legislation in Switzerland and instability in the Balkans prevented national law enforcement agencies from effectively dealing with this international network at an earlier stage. The article also focuses on the history of local and national law enforcement investigations as well as the integrated multi-national investigation project later initiated by the EU and member states. The article's conclusions suggest that while smuggling actors have successfully adapted to the process of globalisation – financial and state deregulation – law enforcement agencies remain at a disadvantage as they are hampered by the domestic legislation in nation states such as Switzerland and the United States. While cigarette smuggling was and is a major illicit industry, it has not been the subject of much academic scrutiny. This article, based on field research in the Balkans and EU member states aims to contribute to a broader understanding of a problem involving a multiplicity of criminal actors, states and law enforcement agencies.