A stochastic model of the 2007 Russian Duma election

In this paper we consider the nature of local Nash equilibrium (LNE) for a model of the 2007 Duma election in Russia, using estimates of valence obtained from sociodemographic variables. We then extend this sociodemographic valence model by including institutional valences, the approval by voters of the various institutions, including the President, the Prime Minister, the State Duma and the Federation Council. We show by simulation that the vote maximizing LNE of this general stochastic model were not at the electoral origin. The dominant feature of the election was the influence of approval or disapproval of President Putin on each voter’s political choice.     

A decision model for the study of public bureaucracies

In this paper the concept series of decisions is introduced and defined as the total number of decisions made in the attainment of a goal. The series are analytically divided into two types of decisions, programming and implementation—the first ones are those made during the process of converting policy goals into programs, and the second, those made during the implementation of the programs. The distinction is important because different actors and institutions are involved in the two phases. It is hypothesized that the relation between the time of programming decisions and the time of implementation of decisions tends to be zero the less effective and the less numerous the organizations participating in the programming phase. A list of factors which could be useful in the process of testing and modifying the hypothesis is presented. The division of health environment of the health ministry of Colombia is used to exemplify the concept of series of decisions, and to show the utility of the analytical distinction between programming and implementation decisions.The field work for this study was done in 1970 under the sponsorship of the Division of Research in Epidemiology and Communications Sciences (RECS) of the World Health Organization. The research was conducted at the Ministry of Public Health of Colombia. I am very grateful to Dr. Antonio Ordonez Plaja, Minister of Public Health at the time of the research. Without his continuous help, encouragement and understanding, this work would not have been possible.     

A model of decision making and the public service professional

This article offers a reformulation of the concept of professionalism as it applies to public sector decision making. After critically evaluating existing work, we present a role theoretic model of public sector decision making that provides a precise conceptual and operational meaning to the term professionalism. We then evaluate the model's applicability to public sector actors, using city managers as an example. Finally, we discuss some of the public policy implications of increasing public service professionalization.     

The committee assignment process as an optimal contracting problem

This paper adapts a simple model from the optimal contracting literature to explain the relationship between political parties and non-incumbent candidates. The model predicts that legislators with a higher opportunity cost of government service will receive better committee assignments. Using data that spans 12 Congresses (97th to 108th), I find that when the opportunity cost of Senate service is measured by previous occupation, freshmen senators with a high opportunity cost for serving (those who were lawyers) were given good committee assignments, while freshmen senators with a low opportunity cost for serving (professors, and those with relatives already in politics) were given worse committee assignments.     

The decision process of a professionalized legislature: A cognitive anthropology approach

Political science research indicates that some state legislatures have become more professionalized, i.e., taken on many of the characteristics of Congress such as yearround sessions, professional staffs, and formalized bill processes. But is professionalization a factor in legislators' decision making? Triangulated analysis—consensus, cluster, and multidimensional scaling—of two paired comparisons that were administered to a stratified random sample of a professionalized legislature suggests that some of the professionalized characteristics do affect legislators' perception of their decision making on one area of policy, the regulation of and resource allocation to public universities. The analysis also shows that influences on legislators' decision process fluctuate according to issue.     

Adapting the environmental impact statement process to inform decision makers

The environmental impact statement (EIS) process is central to the assessment of environmentally significant actions. Yet decisions about what matters in the environment and what gets studied as part of an EIS are based on values that are largely implicit and come primarily from technical experts. In this article we propose using the techniques of decision analysis (DA) to articulate values explicitly and make the EIS process more effective as an aid to decisionmakers in developing defensible environmental policies. We identify five major sources of problems with the current EIS approach, propose a new environmental decision process that incorporates DA in the EIS framework, and consider the merits, problems, and feasibility of implementing the suggested policy improvements.     

Climate change adaptation in the Alpine Shire of Australia: a decision process appraisal

This study aims to integrate scientific knowledge from a variety of disciplines with local experience to describe, contextually and in detail, the impact of flood events on the community of the Alpine Shire and current mitigation efforts to alleviate and reduce these impacts. The Myrtleford Floodplain Management Study was the cornerstone of the strategy to address the goal of reducing flood damage in the community. It was found that the most consequential deficiencies in the Myrtleford flood mitigation scheme decision process are related to flaws in four elements of the process: the articulation of goals; the development of appropriate knowledge support; the effectiveness of promotion; and the ability to move from invocation to application. The Alpine Shire can be used as a microcosm that can represent adaptation challenges in other communities to climate change and extreme events. This research contributes to the development of the conceptual and analytical framework of integrated assessments, while making concrete contributions to the development of adaptive policies in Alpine Shire.     

Regional stabilization: a model for policy decision

A policy simulative model with the main purpose of simulating the effects of alternative policy moves and obtaining an accurate read-out of resulting urban-suburban conditions is the focus of this paper. The model deals with the movement of various population groups and the resulting effects on some very broad indicators of city-suburban life, rather than with particular topics like transportation, land use and the like. The level of abstraction is thus intermediate and is directed at providing practical policy suggestions for a particular city—Newark—for which the model is calibrated. The model, however, is general enough in nature so that it can be applied to other urban-suburban complexes and therefore the policy suggestions made on a fairly broad basis. The outputs of the model are graphically represented to show the results of alternative policies which then may be compared. As a side benefit the inputs to the model can also serve as a “social report” on the present status of an area. Policy questions to be answered by the model include: Should a city budget be directed somewhat differently? Should a city ask the state or federal government for funding and for how much? What may be expected from imposing a city sales tax, weighing the revenue benefit against costs of lost sales or citizens? And last, would the federal government not be better off by simply giving money to the poor directly instead of to cities?     

Agency reform as decision process: The reengineering of the Agency for International Development

The Agency for International Development (AID), the U.S. Government's principal dispenser of foreign economic assistance, is struggling to define its mission in the post Cold War era. AID staff and overseas presence has contracted in recent years following reinvention reforms. But reinvention has not clarified the agency's mission nor protected it from powerful critics. AID's future depends on its ability to develop a mission that excites popular demand. Agency reformers promote foreign aid as a means to advance sustainable development in developing countries. But AID's sustainable development mission lacks credibility because it excludes references to reforms required in post-industrial societies. Participation of U.S. local interests in aid management and more effective promotion of familiar premises for aid (many of them consistent with the tenets of sustainable development) are essential elements of a revitalized foreign aid program.     

A simple test of the thesis that committee jurisdictions shape corporate PAC contributions

The results presented in the previous section tend to confirm the hypothesis that committee assignments shape the pattern of corporate PAC contributions. This note corroborates existing research on corporate PACs at a significantly lower level of aggregation than the samples on which existing research has been conducted. Further, because a nonparametric test was used (rather than the more standard regressional analysis), these results should increase our confidence that the essential institutions of government affect, and engender responses by, economic agents.The author thanks Arthur Denzau, Kenneth Shepsle, Barry Weingast and an anonymous referee for helpful and creative comments. Financial support for this research came from the Center in Political Economy, Washington University, St. Louis. All errors are the author's alone.