主流国际关系理论视阈下中俄合作关系的动因与前景分析

西方主流国际关系理论认为,安全与权力、经济发展与民众福利以及集体认同是国家间合作关系的三大动因.中俄国家间合作关系的发展主要基于安全与权力、经济发展与民众福利,并不存在集体认同的因素.这样的合作具有一定程度的不稳定性,它比较容易受到三个因素的影响:美国因素、中国自身的因素和俄罗斯自身的因素.     

NGOs and advocacy: How well are the poor represented?

There is a widespread perception that Southern non-governmental organizations (NGOs) best represent the authentic voices of the Southern poor. This article challenges this perception, arguing that poor people in general, and children and women in particular, continue to be disenfranchised, while NGOs-both Northern and Southern-offer a poor imitation of their voices. It argues that what is needed, given the current global economic paradigm, is an authentic 'joint venture' between NGOs in the North and the South and the authentic voices of poor people themselves, that would bring the poor into the mainstream; and a new approach to capacity-building that would seek to empower them better to advocate for themselves. It concludes that, to achieve this, economic advocacy should perhaps take greater precedence over political advocacy.     

A chocolate-coated case for alternative international business models

Large companies have accelerated their control of the basic commodities markets in the last decade. The author describes what this means for smallholder farmers in the developing world who depend on these markets for some cash income each year. The consequences of the growing power of distributors (the grocery or supermarket chains) and dominant brand-owners are persistent rural poverty and the ideological and economic devaluation of the sustainable and small-scale agricultural production methods that are so essential to the 70 per cent of the world's poor who live in rural areas. The author traces the story of a successful business partnership started in 1992 linking cocoa farmers in West Africa and fair-minded chocolate lovers in the UK and USA. This initiative was launched in the face of direct criticism and harsh competitive pressure from the global chocolate giants, but it has mobilised a new kind of coalition and constituency.     

Reaching the Millennium Development Goals: equality and justice as well as results

Though less than expected, resources are available for simple, cheap interventions that can accelerate progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. Results-based management has been the key to increasing access to education and health care, but it does little to change the political, social, and economic conditions that make people poor. Unless there is a better balance between the drive to achieve measurable impact, investments in long-term poverty-eradication measures, and the creation of space where poor people can discuss and develop strategies for achieving equality and social justice, it will not be as easy to make poverty history as many people think.     

Economic Growth and Basic Human Needs

An enduring debate in the political economy of development turns upon the question of whether trade-offs exist between economic growth and the equitable provision of basic human needs (such as adequate nutrition, shelter, and education) in poor areas. Much of the empirical work on this "growth-welfare"debate has supported the argument that improvements in basic welfare and enhanced economic performance are mutually reinforcing processes. But if the relationships between improved welfare and factors of growth have been fruitfully examined, the effects of growth and growth-oriented policies upon subsequent levels of poverty and inequality are less clear. In a past issue of this journal, political scientists Bruce E. Moon and William J. Dixon argue that higher rates of economic growth do not improve a nation's ability to meet the basic needs of its population. However, two problems undermine Moon and Dixon's analysis and cast doubt upon the accuracy of their conclusions. I address this concern, constructing and estimating a dynamic model of the impact of growth upon basic welfare that tries to account for these problems. The findings confirm Moon and Dixon's general conclusion, but suggest that the impact of growth-related factors upon basic needs outcomes may be less enduring than they had supposed, with beneficial consequences of either positive externalities or effective government intervention (or both) soon outweighing any detrimental effects of sustained growth.     

Economic Sanctions,Poverty, and International Terrorism: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the impact of economic sanctions on international terrorism. It is argued that sanctions intensify economic hardships on the poor within countries and this increases their level of grievance and makes them more likely to support or engage in international terrorism. Further, economic sanctions are conceptualized as creating an opportunity for rogue leaders to manipulate aggrieved poor people to terrorize foreign entities who are demonized as engaging in a foreign encroachment on the sanctioned nation's sovereignty. A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 152 countries for the past three decades provides evidence that ceteris paribus, economic sanctions are positively associated with international terrorism. This finding suggests that, although the main purpose of economic sanctions is to coerce rogue countries to conform to international norms and laws, they can unintentionally produce a negative ramification and become a cause of international terrorism.     

Globalization,Integration, and the European Welfare State

This paper considers three challenges to the mature European welfare states posed by economic and social integration, demographic changes, and the alleged decline of state capacity in the form of fiscal extraction in an era of globalization. I argue that the experiences of the older member states in the European Union are difficult to reconcile with the common assertions that globalization necessarily leads to a “race to the bottom” where welfare spending is downsized to the lowest common denominator. I develop a set of hypotheses on plausible linkages between demographic challenges, globalization, political capacity, and welfare spending, and test the propositions in an empirical analysis of 14 European Union member states from 1983 to 1998. My empirical results suggest that economic integration does not pose a threat to European welfare states. Rather, demographic changes such as low fertility rates and the aging of the population and their political implications for political leaders’ incentives are more serious challenges for the continuation of the welfare state in Europe.     

The new urban poor: the Tobas indians

This article focuses on the Tobas Indians who belong to a large group of indigenous people known as the ?guaycurues?. Originally, the Tobas occupied an extensive part of northern Argentina in the Chaco area, which includes the provinces of Chaco, Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero, Salta, and Formosa, reaching as far as neighboring Paraguay. The Tobas were a nomadic group who lived by hunting, fishing, and gathering. They later adopted some Andean cultural traditions such as ceramics, weaving, and basket making. However, over the years of continuing development, devastation plagued the community and migration became the only option. Rosario became the preferred destination and now the Tobas are living in and around the city. Rubbish provides these people with food, clothes, shoes, and a regular income. Aggravating their poor situation is the difficulty in obtaining social welfare assistance from the government because of political and religious factors. In order for the Tobas to develop in their new urban environment, various specialists are needed to tap the potential of this group to take the initiative to be productive in their own small ways.     

A population policy and a development policy are one and the same thing. An introduction to World Population Year

The disappointing results of many family planning programs in developing countries can be traced to the fallacious assumption that most poor people want smaller families. In fact, many poor people want large families. This is largely a response to economic conditions. Large numbers of children are considered necessary to provide support for their parents in old age, help with chores, and contribute to the family's income. If the problem is viewed as not only population but also poverty, then the solution becomes not only contraception but also social and economic development. Increasing equality of income distribution and access to social services is the major factor in both promoting development and reducing the birth rate. There is empirical evidence that significant falls in the birth rate occur only when the standard of living rises substantially for the majority of the population. Improvements in socioeconomic conditions can remove the need for large families. Thus, a development policy and a population policy are 1 and the same thing, and more equitable income distribution is the key to both.     

Intangible Infrastructure of the GCC: Bridging the Divide

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments have made great efforts to cross the urban/rural divide, which have dramatically reduced illiteracy and the accessibility of basic health care. The GCC has enjoyed little success with addressing both urban and rural unemployment, and the growing number of young citizens who cannot find work. Freeing up jobs for educated young citizens and revitalisation of national economies require governments to deport expats by the hundreds of thousands. There are extreme pressures that divide the urban and rural residents of GCC states. Equitable access to the Internet served as a unifying factor in Vietnam and Scotland, and similar success can be seen in the GCC. Internet access via satellite or 4G is actionable with minimal infrastructure. Building of infrastructure for reliable delivery systems will be expensive, but the building and maintenance of the network will provide jobs and improve local economies. Access to high-speed Internet will give poor people in rural areas means to improve their economic situation and access education, which are two main factors of discontent with the government. Access to high-speed Internet in rural areas of the GCC will serve as one of the catalysts for peace in the region.     

Is Globalisation Good for the Poor? A Reply to Pogge

In an article from 2011, Thomas Pogge asks if globalisation is good for the world's poor. Pogge answers in the negative. As important evidence for the view that the globalisation period has not been good for the world's poor, Pogge cites a dataset provided by Branko Milanovi? (CUNY). In this article, we do not take issue with Pogge's definition of “globalisation”, “the world’s poor” or with the veracity of the empirical data he refers to in articulating and defending his view about globalisation and the world's poor. However, Pogge's reference to a dataset showing that there has been an economic polarisation between the wealthiest and poorest people of the world, is not, we contend, something that in itself offers strong support for his view that the global institutional order is a significant cause of this economic polarisation. We believe that Pogge overemphasises the impact of supranational institutions in relation to the question of what the main drivers have been of the economic polarisation in question. Our thesis is that a high population growth in the poorest regions of the world, relative to the population growth in the richest regions of the world, can help explain a non-negligible amount of the economic polarisation that has occurred between 1988 and 2005.     

俄罗斯及其他国家的反贫困政策

贫困是一种经济社会现象。不同国家贫困现象产生的原因和贫困人口的构成存在差异。降低贫困水平的政策很大程度上取决于国家的经济社会发展。要解决贫困问题,必须制定和完善宏观经济政策,保持经济稳步持续增长,建立平等的社会保障和社会救助体系,形成有效的监测机制,同时国家须积极参与反贫困过程。     

A distributional theory of economic democracy

In the twentieth century, while political democracy triumphed economic democracy failed both as an idea and in practice. A case for reviving the idea of economic democracy is made in terms of protecting political democracy. Economic democracy has conventionally been understood as a matter of bringing economic power under the control of collective political power. The idea is here reformulated as a matter of redistributing economic power between persons, of giving people a share in economic power directly rather than through elected representatives. Political democracy is assumed, which is to say that political power is under the control of the middle class. The question then is under what conditions the middle class might want and think it could use political power to redistribute economic power. The conclusions are that there is in advanced capitalist democracies considerable scope for the redistribution of economic power between the rich and the middle class. As for the empowerment of the poor, however, anti-poverty policies beyond the containment of poverty are unlikely to emerge today in countries where that did not happen under earlier historical conditions.     

美国TPP战略的动机及其对东北亚经济一体化的影响研究

美国TPP战略既是美国外贸政策的重大调整,也是对WTO全球多边贸易秩序的系统性突破。它不仅反映了美国政府试图重振其国内脆弱经济的努力,同时也标志着美国亚太经济合作战略的重大转变。本文运用一般均衡模型,模拟了不同情境下美国TPP战略对不同地区产生的各种经济影响。模拟结果显示:TPP加入国家福利增加,而非加入国将受损,一个不包括中国的TPP将使得中国福利受损,贸易条件恶化。中国需要迅速建立包含中日韩三国的东北亚自由贸易区,同时应根据自己的长远利益构建针对美国TPP战略的其他对冲性政策。     

中小企业参与大湄公河次区域经济合作开发的微观环境分析——以中国台资成衣业对柬埔寨投资为例

一、引言 大湄公河次区域经济合作作为中国-东盟自由贸易区的先行示范区，受到次区域各国及中国政府的充分重视，其所涉及到的6个国家（越南、缅甸、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、中国）均属发展中国家，尤其是越南、缅甸、老挝、柬埔寨，人均收入不到400美元。如今，次区域经济合作的理论探讨及实践已经进行多年，各国政府都希望通过加强合作发展经济，而众多优惠政策也为各中小型企业进入次区域合作开发提供了良好条件。但从目前情况看来，虽然中小型企业发展速度较快，但发展水平仍不高，     

转轨经济政策制定中的“政府诉求”探析

政府是转轨的决策人和推动者，是经济政策制定的主体，政府动机及行为目标是解释转轨经济政策的关键。经济政策的目标理应是效率的提高或福利的增加，但是在政治约束下的经济政策往往成为实现政治目的的手段。     

日本老龄化应对措施及其对中国的启示

随着经济、医疗和社会的发展，人口老龄化已成为人类共同面对的课题。老龄化并不单指寿命的延长、老年人口数量的增加，而是指老年人口占总人口的比例，以及这一比例的增长幅度大小。根据国际人口学会编著的《人口学词典》定义：65岁以上的老年人口比例达到7％的人口结构称为“老龄化社会”（Aging Society），65岁以上人口的比例超过14％，叫做“老龄社会”（Aged Society）。     

韩国养老保险制度的发展、特点、问题及与中国的比较分析

韩国的社会养老保险制度是从 2 0世纪 70年代开始建立的 ,80年代养老金的覆盖范围得到扩大 ,90年代后期开始进行了一系列改革。韩国的社会养老保险制度是一种缴费制的社会保险方案 ,由国家承担最后担保的责任。韩国的国民养老金覆盖率明显高于中国 ;韩国老年人的社会经济保障收入来源是多渠道的 ,中国应该向多渠道的社会保障途径发展。但是 ,韩国养老基金的来源也受到了挑战 ,社会保障费用迅速上升给韩国的企业造成了很大的负担 ,社会保障正遭遇财政危机 ,这是我国需要汲取的教训。     

People's empowerment from the people's perspective

Empowerment of poor people is the declared aim of many NGOs and official development agencies. However, the failure to recognise the culture of poor people, and to use their own forms of organisation as a point of departure, means that many such programmes are in fact counter-productive. This article argues that NGOs which wish to support people's empowerment need to demonstrate their faith in poor people by respecting and supporting their own decisions.     

The dynamics of contemporary local-government policies and economic development in West Papua

There have been enormous political, economic, and social changes in West Papua. Every governor of West Papua has designed programmes to boost economic development and reduce poverty. The influx of migrant workers under the ‘transmigration programme’ into West Papua has limited the job opportunities for indigenous people in the labour market. This article concludes that the local government's strategies failed to deliver suitable development programmes to the local people, which resulted in increased poverty, the continuing poor development of the education system, and the deterioration of the population's health condition, with a rise in the number of Papuans infected with HIV and AIDS.