Combating Coups d’état in Africa, 1950–2014

Recent years have seen African militaries attempt coups in virtually every geographic region, from Egypt to Lesotho and Guinea to Madagascar. They have targeted established democracies, infantile democratic experiments, increasingly authoritarian executives, power vacuums brought on by leader death, and—most recently in Burundi—leaders attempting to circumvent constitutional limitations on their tenure. These continuing acts perpetrated against regimes with such varied backdrops suggests that coups still afflict a wide range of states and remain a continuing threat to leader tenure. This is in contrast to the African Union’s emphasis on curbing the practice. This paper explores the African Union’s effectiveness to combat military coups, primarily focusing on the potential for sanctions to act as a deterrent to would-be coup plotters. The paper also considers potential limitations on the African Union’s (AU’s) ability to project power against certain states. Analyses for the years 1950–2014 indicate Africa has in fact witnessed a meaningful decline in coup activity, an impact even more pronounced than the end of the Cold War. Results also indicate that the AU’s effectiveness in deterring coups is not constrained in cases where they are expected to lack leverage.     

“C’est comme ça que cela pourrait recommencer” : L’épineuse question foncière au Burundi

In recent years, research on land conflicts in war-affected countries has seen a significant increase in the literature on conflict resolution. Land grabbing coupled with the return and repatriation of thousands of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) after the end of civil wars constitute major challenges for peace and reconciliation in many African countries. Drawing on a case study of Burundi, one of Africa’s most densely populated countries, this article analyses the complex issues related to land conflicts. Burundi is currently facing thousands of land disputes following the return of refugees and IDPs stemming from the different politico-ethnic crises that this Great Lakes country has endured since independence. The current instrumentalization of the land issue by political entrepreneurs highlights the risks for the fragile peace and reconciliation process that Burundi has known in recent years if the land conflicts are not addressed in a sensitive and equitable manner.     

Understanding inclusive peace agreements in Africa: The problems of sharing power

Power sharing has increasingly been seen as a way out of otherwise intransigent conflicts in multi-ethnic African societies. Yet power sharing has obvious problems: power sharing agreements are difficult to arrive at, even more difficult to implement, and even when implemented, such agreements rarely stand the test of time. Indeed, there are relatively few historical examples of successful, formalised power sharing in Africa which would warrant its advocacy. Drawing primarily on the cases of Angola, Somalia, Ethiopia and Rwanda, this paper seeks to explain why a method of conflict resolution so appealing in theory fails so often in practice. The paper will outline general theoretical approaches to power sharing, examine the practical problems associated with its implementation, and suggest ideas for how some of these problems can be overcome.     

The Pirates' Curse: Economic Impacts of the Maritime Piracy

During the last decades, the activities of pirates have increased exponentially in Eastern Africa, with their attacks becoming considerably more violent. In addition to the intrastate and interstate conflicts, the lack of state capacity and the presence of terrorist groups, maritime piracy represents a serious and sustained threat to economic security. Indeed, from an economic point of view, pirates affect international trade through an increasing insecurity related to the prompt delivery of the goods transported. The aim of this work is to explore the main works on maritime piracy analyzed in quantitative economics.     

Jihadist Radicalization in East Africa: Two Case Studies

Al-Shabaab, the Somali militia currently fighting against African forces in Somalia, has seen varying degrees of success in its regional recruitment efforts. As it continues to struggle against the forces of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), the militia has tried to step up these efforts. To this end, the group has seen significant success in countries such as Kenya, while it has struggled in Somaliland. The strategies and tactics employed by al-Shabaab in order to successfully recruit vary depending on geographical location, as do the motivations to join, and drawing on fieldwork in both Kenya and Somaliland this study will compare and contrast the effectiveness al-Shabaab recruitment in both of these countries. In doing so, it will examine which local conditions either enhance or limit these efforts, identifying some of the determinants of the success and failure of jihadist recruitment in east Africa.     

War,reconstruction and dependence in Mozambique

It is often asserted that pressures for North African migration to Europe would be reduced if the European Union encouraged economic development on the southern shores of the Mediterranean. Such arguments prompt questions about the efficacy of past and present endeavours by Europe to support economic development in North Africa. This article argues that the European Union's efforts have ironically encouraged a form of economic development in its southern neighbours that abets, rather than discourages, migration. Deeper economic reform is necessary by the European Union itself-within the economic space that Europe dominates-if genuine progress is to be made on North African migration pressures.     

Al-Shabaab,Social Identity Group,Human (In)Security,and Counterterrorism

This article examines the link between human security, social identity, and al-Shabaab. The first section explores how social identity group theory can help explain al-Shabaab's recruitment. The second part focuses on the counterterrorism campaign against al-Shabaab, which involves decapitation, aggressive peacekeeping through a proxy in the shape of the African Union Mission in Somalia, and the role of a domestic de-radicalization program. The article concludes that al-Shabaab's allure is in decline and the group is facing internal turmoil, which makes its overtures toward the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant very dangerous, as al-Shabaab could act as an effective conduit between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa.     

Ethnicity and conflict severity: accounting for the effect of co-ethnic and non-ethnic militias on battlefield lethality

How does the presence of armed pro-regime groups affect conflict lethality? This study examines the relationship between ethnicity, militia violence and conflict lethality in civil wars. We emphasise that differences in whether pro-regime militias were recruited in accordance with their ethnicity or not are critical in their influence upon conflict lethality, which we estimate in battlefield deaths. To that end, we categorise militias into groups recruited on their ethnic basis (co-ethnic militias) and those recruited regardless of their ethnicity (non-ethnic militias). We hypothesise that conflicts are more lethal when non-ethnic militias are involved. We link higher number of battle-deaths in conflicts with non-ethnic militias with the militia use of one-sided violence against civilians. Co-ethnic militias – that is militias recruited from the same ethnicity as rebels – are deployed amongst their co-ethnics and therefore tend to target civilians less than non-ethnic militias. This militia–civilian relationship has direct impact on conflict severity. To test our hypotheses we conduct global statistical analysis of 84 intrastate conflicts from 1989 to 2014.     

The third wave: mixed migration from Zimbabwe to South Africa

Migration from Zimbabwe has recently been described as an archetypal form of “mixed migration” in which refugees and migrants are indistinguishable from one another. This paper argues that such a state-centred understanding of mixed migration oversimplifies a far more complex reality and fails to adequately account for the changing nature of Zimbabwean out-migration. Based on data from three separate Southern African Migration Programme (SAMP) surveys undertaken in 1997, 2005 and 2010 at key moments of transition, the paper shows how the form and character of mixed migration from the country has changed over time. The country’s emigration experience since 1990 is divided into three periods or “waves”. The third wave (roughly from 2005 onwards) has seen a major shift away from circular, temporary migration of individual working-age adults towards greater permanence and more family and child migration to South Africa. Zimbabwean migrants no longer see South Africa as a place of temporary economic opportunity for survival but rather as a place to stay and build a future for themselves and their families.     

Maturing Sino–Africa relations

It is argued that China’s relationship with Africa has transformed into one defined by a dynamism and African agency, thereby lessening the hold the former previously had on Africa in the early days of this evolving alliance. First, the authors will conduct a literature review of historical Sino–African relations, from the early Han dynasty to its contemporary manifestations. The second section will continue with this analysis by focusing exclusively on the status quo of the Sino–African economic relationship, including analysis of trade flows, investments, development, economic cooperation, and Chinese support for regional integration. Finally, this paper will conclude with an elaboration of some key, emerging relationship areas, such as opportunities for China and Africa to collaborate on the achievement of the latter’s Agenda 2063 and African Mining Vision.     

The African ‘oil rush’ and US national security

The world's major oil-consuming nations, led by the USA, China and the Western European countries, are keenly interested in the development of African oil reserves, making huge bids for whatever exploration blocks become available and investing large sums in drilling platforms, pipelines, loading facilities and other production infrastructure. Indeed, the pursuit of African oil has taken on the character of a gold rush, with major companies from all over the world competing fiercely with one another for access to promising reserves. This ‘oil rush’ has enormous implications both for African oil producers and for the major oil-importing countries. For the producing countries it promises both new-found wealth and a potential for severe internal discord over the allocation of oil revenues (or ‘rents’); for the consuming countries, it entails growing dependence on imports of a vital substance from a region of chronic instability, with obvious national security overtones. Both these trends are reflected in US policy towards African oil. Desperate to procure additional supplies of foreign oil (to make up for the decline in domestic output), the Bush administration has made strenuous efforts to increase the role of US energy firms in African production. But because instability in Africa is an obstacle to such investment, it has sought to boost the internal security capacity of friendly African states and has laid the groundwork for direct US military involvement in Africa. At the same time Washington has become deeply concerned by China's growing interest in African oil, provoking an intense competitive contest between the two, with growing military overtones. In the end African societies will most probably suffer from this competition as an influx of arms bolsters the capacity of entrenched African regimes.     

Third World states as intervenors in ethnic conflicts: Implications for regional and international security

Third party involvement in internal ethnic conflicts has generated much interest in the post-cold war period. Yet few systematic studies focus on Third World states, which are among the most frequent intervenors in intrastate disputes. This article presents an initial empirical assessment of 975 interventions by third world states in ethnic conflicts in the South during the 1990s. It reveals that, contrary to expectations, the end of the Cold War has not led to a significant change in either major power or regional power interventions. Over one-half of all interventions are undertaken by states located in the region where the conflict occurs. Neighbours and regional powers can potentially threaten regional and international stability as they choose to furnish military assistance to ethnic groups in some 60% of their interventions. Conflicts involving ethnic groups seeking autonomy or secession are among the most likely to attract outside patrons.     

The Southern African customs union,cereal price policy in South Africa,and food security in Botswana

It is elaborated in this article that external factors may affect food security in developing countries even if these countries are not exposed to price instability in world food markets. This is the case in the Southern African Customs Union where the agricultural price policy in South Africa affects food security in Botswana, Lesotho and Swasiland. It is analysed quantitatively how cereal price policy in South Africa influenced the cereal import sector of Botswana in the period 1969–84. Cereal import prices increased due to Botswana's membership of the customs union, and cereal imports declined. The price increase was accompanied by a price‐stabilising impact.     

The Evolving Role of the Africa Scholar in African Studies

This paper explores – through a geo-political perspective – the changes and continuities in South African foreign policy over the period 1990–2010, focusing on the themes of military relations, migration, democratization, and pan-Africanism. The demise of apartheid led to significant changes in South Africa's relations with southern Africa and the rest of Africa, including: transition of South Africa from pariah state to a key leader of the continent; an end to South Africa's destabilization of its immediate neighbours; transition toward more humane treatment of migrants; and transition toward a commitment to democracy promotion in Africa. Yet, continuities among the apartheid and post-apartheid eras persist, including: the persistence of nationalism and realism as guiding principles; ongoing economic and political constraints imposed by neighbouring countries; the persistence of socio-cultural divisions amongst South African and migrant workers; and overall ambivalence about pan-African identity and policies.     

Endemic violence in south africa: An od solution applied to two educational settings

This article discusses the endemic nature of violence in South Africa. The authors hypothesize that the culture in South Africa is autocratic in nature. They compare the socialization that occurs between democratic and autocratic families and the relationship this has to later problem-solving and conflict resolution behavior. People raised in an authoritarian culture need to develop skills that will enable them to learn an alternative to violence in conflict and problem-solving situations. The authors describe two educational interventions that followed this model. Available results are presented.

Both historically and today, violence in South Africa is endemic. Examples of South Africans committing violent acts because they feel justified fill today's media. Despite hopes and visions for a new South Africa and examples of goodwill and peaceful common ground between the different political positions, these violent acts emanate from all points of the political compass. Historically, we find examples such as the black tribal wars -- the African/Zulu wars, the Zulu/British wars, and the Anglo/Boer Wars.^(1),(2)

Although some positive processes of change occur in the country, a violent approach to problem-solving still remains. It is evident, both through research and perception, that all major population clusters (including whites, Africans, and other populations in South Africa) are predominantly authoritarian by virtue of their origin, their education, and their creed. This authoritarian culture may contribute toward the resistance against democratic processes and possibly heighten the opportunity for violence. The birth of liberation amplifies this dynamic situation. For all parties involved, liberation heightens the “fear for loss”⁽³⁾ and creates a non-productive power struggle. In this paper, we first explore why we believe that violence is endemic in this country, showing how an authoritarian culture may contribute to this problem. Second, we will describe two OD interventions presented in separate educational settings that were designed to reduce violence.     

Dancing to the beat of the diaspora: musical exchanges between Africa and its diasporas

Abstract

This essay examines the complex ebbs and flows of musical exchanges between Africa and its diasporas. Specifically, it focuses on musical engagements between, on the one hand, the Caribbean and West Africa and, on the other, the United States and Southern Africa. It argues that the influence of diasporan music on modern African music, especially popular music, has been immense. These influences and exchanges have created a complex tapestry of musical Afro-internationalism and Afro-modernism and music has been a critical site, a soundscape, in the construction of new diasporan and African identities. A diasporic perspective in the study of modern African music helps Africa reclaim its rightful place in the history of world music and saves Africans from unnecessary cultural anxieties about losing their musical ‘authenticity’ by borrowing from ‘Western’ music that appears, on closer inspection, to be diasporan African music.     

South Africa in a comparative study of industrialization

The peculiarities of South African society, where class, ethnic, linguistic and national cleavages overlap, tend to obscure the process which have led to industrialization. This is unfortunate because a study of South African social structures may shed light on the wider problems of development. An attempt is made in the article to compare political and economic developments in South Africa with similar developments in Tsarist Russia, Imperial Germany and the American South. It is suggested, for example, that the German ‘marriage of iron and rye’ has a counterpart in the relationship between maize and gold in South Africa and that similar political consequences follow. The organization of the South African mining compound is considered, in its formulating effect upon the peculiar process of urbanization in South Africa. This particular form of urbanization has resulted in the creation of a very considerable surplus for investment, the implications of which are discussed.     

Diaspora Mobilization for Western Military Intervention During the Arab Spring

ABSTRACT

Literature on diaspora interest groups suggests that they exacerbate home-country conflicts by lobbying for hawkish interventions. However, studies fall short of understanding why diasporas support militarized interventions in home-country conflicts. Using original data on Libyan and Syrian pro-revolution activism during the Arab Spring, I demonstrate that extreme escalations in state repression, activists’ transnational ties, and norms supporting the “responsibility to protect” produced perceptions that militarized interventions were necessary countermeasures to mass killings. Overall, analyses of diasporas’ orientations to home-country conflicts should account for annihilative threats to populations at home, diasporas’ relations with those on the ground, and humanitarian intervention norms.     

China’s impact on the landscape of African International Relations: implications for dependency theory

Since China began enhancing its economic relationship with key African oil exporters from the early 1990s, the effect this has had on the International Relations (IR) of Africa has remained largely unknown. This paper delves into African IR theory and finds that, rather than representing an alternative pole for African states to bandwagon with, China’s limited interest in Africa and its international socialisation, along with a possible growth of the middle class in Africa, is likely to give many African states few alternatives than those which have existed thus far in the postcolonial period. More development options are found to lie in sub-regional integration.