Political Violence and Excess Liquidity in Egypt

In this article we estimate a time-series model of excess liquidity in the Egyptian banking sector. While financial liberalisation and financial stability are found to have reduced excess liquidity, these effects have been offset by an increase in the number of violent political incidents arising from conflict between radical Islamic groups and the Egyptian state. The link between political events and financial outcomes provides a rationale for economic policy interventions by the international community in response to increases in political instability.     

The history of urban fiscal politics in America, 1830-1930: what was supposed to be versus what was and the difference it makes

Across the social sciences in America analysts routinely employ the so-called “functional“ model of the urban political machine in their explanations of the development of American urban government. They do so, however, with little knowledge of the intellectual history of this model or the actual history of American urban politics. This essay reviews the development and spread of the functional model through the social sciences and argues that it is an historical construct developed in the nineteen fifties by analysts who were admittedly more interested in creating a “usable past” for liberal political economy than in understanding urban political history. Having done this the essay then reviews recent work by urban historians and sociologists which have put the propositions of this model to the test in its ideological, political, and fiscal contexts for the years from 1830-1930. This work reveals that the image of the “all-powerful” political machines is demonstrably false. On this basis the essay argues that the persistence of this image has led to a unrealistic historical standard against which contemporary urban public administration has been unfairly judged.     

A practical model for the management of resistance to change: An analysis of political resistance in South Africa

Change is usually accompanied by resistance -- a neglected and not well understood facet of applied O.D. and large social system change efforts. The management of resistance, just as the rest of the change intervention, should be a planned, systematic, continuous and actively managed process.

The model described in this paper supplies an approach to actively manage resistance according to a systematic and methodological plan. In South Africa this model has been used for two purposes: as a practical management strategy for dealing with resistance during O.D.-projects in business, industry and also in other social settings; and for purposes such as research and as a framework to come to grips with resistance of political parties and other interes groups in these times of major political and social changes. This model is explained and then applied to analyse the resistance of various groups to political changes in South Africa.     

The Political Economy of Familial Relations: The Japanese State and Families in a Changing Political Economy

This article explores the ongoing negotiation over the boundaries between the world of political economy and families by analysing the reactions and responses of the Japanese government and feminists to changes in the political economy as well as popular patterns of family forming since the 1990s. This negotiation has occurred through the transition in the political economy brought about by globalisation and neo-liberal political reforms, and the re-calibration of family and gender roles has emerged as its primary ground. As a result, Japanese women are being required to make a hasty leap from the Fordist model of family life to a more self-steering idea of the individual. This ineluctably re-calibrates the bio-political arrangement into a more advanced mechanism, while discussion of the ‘ethics of care’ has been left relatively absent. Taking up these issues, this article discusses the implications of a changing political economy on Japanese families.     

Participatory Initiatives and Political Representation: The Case of Local Councillors in Sweden

The health of political parties and the institutions of representative democracy have been extensively questioned during the last decade due to evidence of a widespread decline in voting turnout, political trust, and party membership as well as identification. An often-proposed, but also often-questioned, strategy to strengthen representative democracy is for political institutions to offer alternative forms of political participation through so-called participatory initiatives. The literature suggests that participatory initiatives will have little impact on representative democracy if no adaptation among political representatives is apparent. This paper explores the consistency between participatory initiatives in Swedish municipalities and the attitudes, practices and role-taking of local councillors, comparing pioneer municipalities where extensive numbers of participatory initatives have been executed vis-à-vis hesitator municipalities where few initiatives have been implemented. The study indicates that local participatory initiatives may stimulate political representation by creating new channels for citizen input and communication between citizens and representatives that are supported by local councillors in the pioneer municipalities. However, the core roles of parties and councillors in representative democracy appear not to be challenged by these initiatives, being similar in both groups of municipalities. The article is concluded by a discussion of the implications of these results for the function of participatory initiatives in local democracy.     

Political Corruption and Institutional Stability

This article is the first to statistically examine the reciprocal relationship between formal political institutions and political corruption. We argue that political corruption is an informal institution that allows nondemocratic leaders to build political support, act as a substitute for liberalizing concessions in the formal institutions of the state, and thereby extends the longevity of non-democratic regimes. Yet, whereas high corruption level will prevail in nondemocratic regimes, we expect the electoral constituency in democratic regimes to have the formal power to curb political corruption. We demonstrate that these expectations hold by estimating a dynamic multinomial regression model on data for 133 countries for the 1985–2008 period. Our model shows that high-corruption autocracies and hybrid regimes are more stable than their low-corruption counterparts, but that low-corruption democracies are more stable than high-corruption ones. For autocratic and hybrid regimes, the stability is due both to corruption making the formal institutions more resistant to democratization and that the formal institutions prevent reductions in corruption. Consistent democracies, on the other hand, are able to reduce corruption and become more stable as a result.     

Technical training,sponsored mobility,and functional differentiation: Elite formation in China in the reform era

Elite formation in state socialism is a key issue in both comparative mobility research and political sociology. Several perspectives have been proposed to explain the relative role of political loyalty and education in political mobility: a dual career path model, a party-sponsored mobility hypothesis, and a technocracy thesis. I propose an alternative approach, emphasizing the role of functional differentiation and its effect on elite recruitment in China. Using a data set on top Chinese leaders (n = 1588), I find that effects of political loyalty and technical training on elite recruitment are patterned by institutional arrangements. Data analysis supports my explanation of elite selection in China.     

Perceptions Of Federal Management In The Clinton Era

This article examines aspects of planning, budgeting and reorganization in order to evaluate what improvements have been undertaken during the Clinton presidency to improve government performance in the United States national government 1 . The authors develop a model of government reform based upon a series of escalating steps. These are: (1) internal government improvements; (2) fundamental restructuring and reorganization of agency operations; (3) programme reforms, driven by internal management; (4) programme reforms – driven by policy and political change; (5) reform of the political system itself. The authors conclude that while the National Performance Review and Government Performance and Results Act are the centre-pieces of this effort, reform will continue in the US after NPR
and GPRA wither away because the time is right for reform for a variety of reasons discussed in the article. The findings are then focused in a broader context in terms of their applicability to western democracies which could result in smaller more successful governments in the twenty-first century.     

State formation,development, and the politics of self-help in Kenya

Issues of rural development, state formation, and political effectiveness are of paramount importance in Africa today. Analysis of Kenya's Harambee self-help approach to development contributes to our understanding of these issues by clarifying not only the ways in which political and economic concerns are linked in one African nation in a hierarchy based on a patrimonial model of political behavior but also some facets of elite behavior and peasant-state relationships. This paper argues that self-help is central to Kenyan politics and hence to the operation of this model of political behavior, serving the interests and needs of both Kenyan elites and rural communities. Through their self-help projects rural Kenyans neither reject the state retreating into the economy of affection nor permit elites exclusive access to the benefits of both public and private resources. Rather, using elite networks to gain support for self-help projects, residents of rural communities improve their access to highly valued collective goods. These processes are currently being modified in some important ways by the Moi government.     

THAT OBSCURE OBJECT OF DESIRE: BUDGETARY CONTROL IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY

The problems of budgetary control in the EC have been assuming ever greater political importance recently. Yet behind the facade of concern is a lack of knowledge of the extent of the problem, and a seeming inability to take effective action to deal with some of the best known aspects of it. It is argued here that the achievement of budgetary control is particularly difficult in the context of the EC for a variety of reasons. Using a simple cyclical model of budgetary control, the constraints can be grouped into four main categories – conceptual, structural, operational and political. These are examined in turn drawing specific examples from community documentation. Finally, certain avenues for reform are suggested which may be implemented in the future.     

Presidential popularity in a context of economic crisis and political change: The case of Mexico

The study shows how presidential approval ratings in Mexico during an era of crisis have been shaped by citizen reactions to environmental conditions but also by the effects of the transition toward a more competitive electoral system. Regime transitions toward greater democracy in Latin America and elsewhere may hold important implications for the formation of public opinion and mass political behavior. Charles L. Davis is associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky. His interests include comparative politics, political psychology, and Latin America. Ronald E. Langley has been affiliated with the department of political science at the University of Kentucky. His recent research interests are public opinion and presidential politics.     

Democratic Consolidation in Timor-Leste: Achievements,Problems and Prospects

Timor-Leste has had three rounds of major elections, all of which have been widely regarded as meeting international criteria for being free and fair. There has also been one change of government on the basis of these elections. On these grounds, some observers have suggested that Timor-Leste has met the benchmark for having consolidated its democracy. Timor-Leste can be said to meet the criteria for an expanded minimalist definition of democracy, holding regular, free and fair elections within an open competitive political environment, with relatively little violence and intimidation and general freedom of expression. This political process has, as defined by the literature, also consolidated. However, Timor-Leste continues to face future economic challenges. The literature indicates that states with high levels of poverty, unemployment and with food shortages are more prone to political instability. Given that Timor-Leste's political party system relies heavily on charismatic individuals and, apart from Fretilin, has poor party structures, loss of current political leaders will add a further destabilising effect. Expected economic problems are likely to manifest around the same time that the current generation of political leaders are no longer active. The question will be, in this increasingly challenging environment, whether Timor-Leste can sustain its democracy.     

Political transitions and commissions of inquiry: the politicisation of accountability in Ghana

Abstract

What role does a commission of inquiry (COI) play in delivering accountability? In theory, when the public delegates power to political leaders to formulate and implement policies, they seek political accountability in return. Using Ghana as a case study, this study examines how the operations of COIs may deliver accountability. Principal–agent theories of accountability and African conceptions of legitimacy are incomplete on their own and need to be integrated into an explanation of political accountability that takes into consideration political transitions and the role of COIs in delivering a minimalist form of accountability. This study argues that a COI is an instrument of regime legitimatisation. The demands by citizens for political accountability in Ghana correlate with political transitions. Accompanying each power alternation was a different model of political accountability. To understand the predominant applications of accountability, we emphasise the politicisation of accountability.     

中东欧政治转型的类型、进程和特点

由于内外部各种因素的不同,中东欧国家近20年的政治发展呈现出两种模式。一种是波兰等国的平稳演进型,即政治发展相对平稳、民主制度比较巩固,与西方国家的政治体制比较接近;另一种是除斯洛文尼亚外的前南地区的冲突裂变型,即政治发展受民族主义影响比较大,民主化引发了国家分裂和民族冲突。建立西方式民主制是各国政治转型的既定目标,两种类型都不会退回到社会主义时期的一党政治;但民主化并不是中东欧历史的终结,国情的多样性为各国培育新的民主模式提供了可能性。     

Political incrementalism: Political lessons from China's 20 years of reform

The recent crackdown by the Chinese Communist Party government on the efforts of Chinese dissidents to organise the China New Democratic Party has raised a serious question among scholars: why has the Chinese leadership been so reluctant to initiate democratic reforms? But an equally important question is: how has the Chinese political system been able to accommodate drastic socioeconomic changes? Although Chinese leaders from Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin have strongly opposed the Western style of democracy, they have continuously adjusted the country's political system to prevent socioeconomic chaos from occuring, chaos that has troubled many former communist states and Third World countries. This paper explores China's political incrementalism and explains how incremental political reforms have worked. It argues that, although Chinese leaders have so far been successful in accommodating social changes through incrementalism, they are still uncertain about how to cope with increasing social demands for political reform and democratisation.     

Political instability and savings in less developed countries: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

A four‐equation model is used to investigate the effects of political instability (PI) on the savings rate in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Utilising a comprehensive measure of PI, we find that political instability has a deleterious effect on the savings rate both directly and indirectly through a reduction in investment and economic growth. The negative effects of PI on savings rate occurs contemporaneously as well as with a lag. We also find that economic growth has a stabilising effect on the political system and that not accounting for these effects through a simultaneous equations model results in biased coefficient estimates. These relationships are robust with respect to model specification. The implication of our results is that ‘economic factors’ alone cannot explain the development process in Less Developed Countries.     

A SCIENTIFIC STANDARD AND AN AGENCY’S LEGAL INDEPENDENCE: WHICH OF THESE REPUTATION PROTECTION MECHANISMS IS LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO POLITICAL MOVES?

This article presents a model that introduces a scientific ‘gold’ standard as a reputation protection mechanism operating alongside an agency’s legal independence. It tries to gauge which of the two is less susceptible to political moves. The model suggests that the scientific ‘gold’ standard for agency decisions is less susceptible to political moves because of its important role as a legitimating device for both government ministers and regulators. Government ministers are able to address multiple audiences and even to respond to aggressive strategies by powerful interest groups by undermining one reputation protection mechanism (that is, an agency’s independence) without weakening the other (that is, the scientific barrier for granting full‐subsidy status to treatments that lack comparative therapeutic advantage). This implies that drug reimbursement mechanisms that provide a high quality of drug evaluation are designed to be effective.     

Majority Rule in Consensual Democracies: Explaining Political Influence in Norwegian Local Councils

Norwegian local government has traditionally been strongly rooted in the consensus ideal. When the new Local Government Act of 1992 allowed the municipalities to introduce parliamentary models and abolished the statutory requirement of qualified majority decisions in the councils, this therefore implied a significant change in the local government ideal. Even though the municipalities have been reluctant to formally adopt a parliamentary model, this paper argues that in practice a majority system is replacing the traditional consensual model, with functional roles for a governing majority and an opposition. The empirical analysis employs data on local politicians from 1994 and 1998 to test the proposition that representatives of the governing parties exert more influence on local policies than members of the opposition. Two different indicators of political influence are used: (1) the councillors' budgetary influence measured as the distance between the councillors' ideal point and the actual decision outcome, and (2) the councillors' ability to have initiatives accepted in the various local political bodies. In addition to the variable representing membership of the governing majority or the opposition, the model also controls for factors such as the representatives' formal institutional affiliation, individual characteristics and community context. Even when controlling for these determinants, the empirical results strongly support the hypothesis.     

The developmental state: Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan compared

The growth performances of the Israeli economy during the years 1948–1973 were excellent by any criteria, and are comparable to the “miraculous” performances of South Korea and Taiwan. Excellent economic performances in the three countries were accompanied by the presence of an autonomous and an interventionist state as well as by strategies of governed development (in the spheres of finance, investment, and international trade). The comparison is used, to shed new light on the Israeli political economy as well as on the replicability of the developmental state model across regions, cultures, and political regimes. First, by comparing the three countries and pointing to the similarities in the role and autonomy of the state, the article offers a different interpretation of the Israeli economy from that offered by both neoclassical and neomarxist interpretations of the Israeli political economy. Second, successful cases of develoment are rare in our world; this should make the study of the Israeli political economy a valuable case-study for the proponents of the developmental state model. By pointing out the similarities in the growth performances and the developmental strategies of Israel, Taiwan, and South Korea, as well as the dissimilarities in their political regimes, their cultural traditions, and their regional settings, this article further strengthens the arguments in favor of state-guided economic development in developing countries. David Levi-Faur is a lecturer of comparative public policy and business and politics at the University of Haifa. He was a visiting scholar at the L.S.E., University of California, Berkeley, the University of Utrecht, and the University of Amsterdam.     

Post-Soviet politics in Kyrgyzstan: between centralism and localism?

Kyrgyzstan is a country that has recently attracted attention with its different features in post-Soviet Central Asia. The country could not be institutionalized by either an authoritarian means or a democratic regime after her independence in 1992. Political life has been shaped by political confrontation between administrative authorities that have tendencies to strengthen the authoritarian regime and local political leaders who act centrifugally. This article, in the light of this background, aims to investigate the political process in the framework of the ‘Tulip Revolution’ that took place in 2005. Initially, social, economic and cultural dynamics, which have impacts on the political processes, are analysed, and next, the contemporary implications of these dynamics are examined in detail. Finally, probable influences of the political developments witnessed after 2005 and the potential direction of transformation of the political regime are discussed.