Using input-output models to measure local economic impacts

State governments are often interested in the economic impact of various policies and shocks to local economies. Typically, multipliers from an input-output model are used to determine the total effect, which includes the direct effect of the policy or shock and the so-called ripple effects. This paper presents the theoretical background and examples of applications of a regional input-output model. The theoretical background will focus on explaining hour to correctly use such models so that exaggerated effects are not claimed. Examples of how to apply a tailor made model, namely RLMS II, are discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the value and the potential misuses of regional impact models.     

Policy analysis applications of remi economic forecasting and simulation models

This article surveys the ways that regional economic forecasting and policy analysis models have been used to provide information as an input for policy decision making in the public and private sectors. The major areas are as follows: forecasting and planning; economic development; transportation; energy and natural resources; taxation, budget, and welfare; United States policies; and environmental policies. The survey indicates that, while analysis and research may be required to prepare for a model simulation, the predicted economic effects of a policy can be very important information as an input for a wide range of policy decisions.     

Rural housing market response to nonfarm employment growth: an analysis of housing development patterns

This paper describes uses of economic impact models to examine labor force and housing relationships associated with regional employment changes, including area-wide labor demands, expected housing needs in response to changes in the labor force size, and the predicted quantity of new housing units that will be developed. The perspectives analyzed represent important elements in economic development planning, especially in light of the tremendous competition for firms and workers among cities and states in the U.S. today. Rural development officials report difficulty attracting residential labor force members and reason that the absence of housing starts in rural places is inhibiting future growth prospects. The paper demonstrates how input-output, econometric, and spatial analysis methods can be combined to assist decision makers in determining the overall value of regional economic growth and the labor and housing impacts of that growth. Special attention is given to delineating the spatial dimensions of labor and housing markets in rural, urban, and metropolitan settings.     

Diversification and livelihood sustainability in a semi-arid environment: A case study from southern Ethiopia

This paper examines the recently growing adoption of non-pastoral livelihood strategies among the Borana pastoralists in southern Ethiopia. A large portion of the current non-pastoral participation is in petty and natural resource-based activities. Pastoral and crop production functions are estimated using the Cobb-Douglas model to analyse the economic rationale behind the growing pastoralist shift to cultivation and other non-pastoral activities. The low marginal return to labour in traditional pastoralism suggests the existence of surplus labour that can gainfully be transferred to non-pastoral activities. An examination of the pastoralist activity choices reveals that the younger households with literacy and more exposure to the exchange system display a more diversified income portfolio preference. The findings underscore the importance of human capital investment and related support services for improving the pastoralist capacity to manage risk through welfare-enhancing diversified income portfolio adoption.     

The role of the public sector in reducing regional income disparity in Indian plans

This paper is confined to an investigation into the role of the four Five Year Plans in regional development of the Indian Union. Section 1 of the paper is devoted to the weight given to the objective of ‘regional balance’ in these Plans; Section II outlines the ‘model frame’ used to measure the regional concentration, or dispersion, of economic activities and the redistributive features of the Plan measures; Section III deals with the computational sequence of the model; Section IV is confined to data processing; and Section V to analysing the findings. The main substantive conclusions are that the Public Sector investment activities in India over the period 1950–66 have contributed to reducing the spatial income disparity in the country.     

Estimating the economic impacts of a hub airline serving a tourist destination: the case of america west airlines and las vegas,nevada

Airlines are an important component of regional economies. The economic impact of an airline goes beyond the usual impacts of their payroll and expenditures. Airlines also may affect business productivity and the critical economic base of a regional economy. This article estimates the economic impact of America West Airlines on Las Vegas, Nevada. Key aspects of the study were measurement of the direct impacts, estimation of the associated impact on tourism allowing for the possibility of competing travel alternatives, and the use of a regional economic impact model to derive the total economic impact.     

Governance Structures and Political Processes in a Public System: Lessons from Quebec

Debates about the form and nature of changes in the management of public systems have for some time now been articulated under the theme of governance. All definitions of governance are related to the problems of securing convergence among a diversity of actors and organizations, of redistributing power in an organizational or social field characterized by a high level of heterogeneity and of gaining sufficient legitimacy to act in the name of the collectivity. This paper concentrates on the dynamics involved in the emergence of new governing capabilities in public systems. More precisely we study the implementation of regionalization policies in the health care field (in this case of Canada) conceived as one major attempt to renew the governance structures in a large public system. Our study draws on the comparative analysis of empirical regulation in three health regions as contrasted with three ideal type models of governance in regionalized systems. The first model is inspired by an economic approach to organizational behaviour and focuses on mandate‐giving, execution and control. The second model is based on a political interpretation of behaviours and focuses on negotiation processes between actors. Finally, the third model is based on the theory of deliberation as well as the institutional school of policy analysis and focuses on direct public participation in public affairs. Evidence for this article is primarily derived from interviews with key informants and documentary analysis. Our analysis shows that none of the three models is sufficient in itself to grant regional structures the authority and legitimacy they need to create added value in terms of regulation that could ensure their survival. Regional Boards are thus forced by environmental constraints to conceive and implement original mixes of these models. The two predominant logics in regional action are inspired by the first two models although the last one also has an influence. Overall, our study also suggests that the implementation of new sources of governing authorities in a public system is rather fragile because of dependence on existing institutions. Clearly, the attempt to modify the dynamics of governance in a given system must be conceived as a political exercise and not just as a technical problem consisting of the rational adjustment of policy instruments.     

Coping with financial crises: explaining variety in regional arrangements

Financial regional arrangements vary across countries and change over time. Until recently, most economists and political scientists took the European model of monetary integration as the yardstick to which all other regional financial arrangements had to measure up in this article. It is argued that the Euro crisis provides an opportunity for scholars to adopt a different perspective that does not interpret the variety of financial arrangements merely as economic deficiencies caused by the incapacity or unwillingness of regions to follow the European model. Instead, the comparative study of monetary and financial regionalism has to account for the different factors that shape variations. These go from different levels of economic development, over regional political and economic preferences to historical processes which shape the institutional context and the constellation of interests and social forces. Such an approach, which integrates economic and political science approaches, de-centres the Euro model and opens up a new understanding of the global diversity of regional monetary and financial cooperation, and their potential to cope with financial crises.     

Overview of economy-wide nafta models

In the recent debate about the costs and benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), both proponents and opponents used the empirical results of several economic models to support their arguments. Most of the quantitative estimates were provided by computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which are part of the growing literature known as applied general equilibrium.

The CGE model is a powerful tool that can make important contributions to policy debates. Compared to other approaches, CGE models rest on a relatively more solid theoretical foundation. However, the numerical analysis has to be interpreted properly. Quantitative estimates are highly tentative and contingent on the assumptions of the models. Thus, estimates should not be interpreted as predictions but rather as providing some indication of the direction of the various economic changes induced by a certain policy change.

This paper provides an overview of the CGE approach, and of its application to NAFTA. After outlining how a CGE model works, it reviews some of the quantitative results of CGE models used to assess the impact of NAFTA. The paper is intended for an audience not trained in economics.     

Do citizens hold mayors accountable for local conditions? Evidence from Italian municipalities

Using data on 75 big Italian municipalities between 2010 and 2015, this paper looks at the extent to which citizens’ evaluations of mayors are responsive to changes in local performance indicators. While local economic and crime measures are found not be associated with mayoral approval ratings, there is a correlation between mayors’ popularity and indicators for local public transportation and air quality. Mayors of municipalities where more individuals use public transport and where there is less polluted air enjoy higher approval ratings. Additional analysis shows that this result is driven by very big municipalities (with a population over 500,000) that are more likely to be exposed to high levels of traffic congestion and pollution.     

Contending eurocentric theories: the case study of Thailand's economic regionalism in ASEA

ABSTRACT

The Eurocentric theory of economic regionalism, as demonstrated by the empirical case of the European Union, has been widely recognized as the pathfinder, role model, and inspiration for other regional organizations, including ASEAN, due to its continuous attempts at deepening economic integration, formalizing the decision-making process, and legalizing the administrative body. Despite this concordant movement, it is evident from Thailand that ASEAN has evolved differently from the rationale, process, and prediction that Eurocentric theory dictates.

The purpose of this article is to argue that the economic regionalism of ASEAN has not developed in accordance with an economically-oriented rationale. Moreover, the process of economic integration has not necessarily derived from the free trade agreement itself, particularly when a country lacks continuity in terms of its development of regionalist projects. In addition, Thailand has not followed the path of economic integration due to spillover effects. This is because member countries have not given up their sovereignty in favour of the regional institution. Economic regional activities have been broadened within a limited scope, and the expansion has been conducted through bilateral talks, rather than a strengthening of regional solidarity.     

Designing a fiscal federal mechanism for the transition period: the case of the Russian federation

In countries undergoing economic transition, economic factors have caused discord between central and regional authorities. This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal conflicts between the federal and regional governments and discusses what elements in an optimal fiscal management would best preserve federal integrity. It provides a plausible game-theoretic representation of the power struggle between the center and regional governments in the Russian Federation. This representation describes the rules and political environment that served as a background for the budgetary wars of 1992 to 1994, the objectives of both the regional and federal players, and a history of game play during the transitional period.     

NAFTA: The institutionalisation of economic openness and the configuration of Mexican geo-economic spaces

Since the second part of the 1980s, and with the negotiation and implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico's growth-and industry-orientated policies have shifted from the realm of public policy to a market-driven domain. This paper suggests that economic openness and the empowerment of market actors is provoking a new regionalisation of Mexico's core economic activities that will play a crucial role in the coming century. For Mexico, the core of NAFTA, so to speak, encompasses a cross-border territoriality covering two key southern American states: Texas and California, and key Mexican states located from the border to the Central plateau of the country. I also argue in this paper that Mexico's changing economic territoriality, triggered by the dominance of the outward-looking economic model, is exacerbating regional inequalities that prevailed in the country even before the outset of economic reforms. This is mainly the case of Mexico's southern region, still very agriculture-orientated, and with a deficit of those export-orientated industries currently fuelling economic growth. This region is the least endowed with mobile assets-such as technology, capital, knowledge-in order to exploit the opportunities of market-orientated policies. Consequently, social cohesion is at stake, not necessarily provoked by the market, but exacerbated by it, and the market mechanism cannot by itself address this problem.     

Toward Evaluating the Effectiveness of Regional Partnerships for Economic Development in U.S. Metropolitan Areas

During the past few decades, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of regional partnerships in the United States to enhance economic development across local government jurisdictions. This trend has been mirrored by an increase in regional organizations in Europe, Asia and South America to enhance economic development, usually across national boundaries. While the literature has examined the formation, structure and activities of regional partnerships for economic development in the United States, this is the first study that attempts to measure their effectiveness across a large number of geographical areas using quantitative methods. The findings provide some evidence of their effectiveness in that there is a positive and significant relationship between regional partnerships and employment; the relationship between regional partnerships and income is positive but insignificant. This study may be informative in the further study of regional economic development organizations in other countries as well as regional partnerships and organizations in other policy arenas.     

Attitudes toward immigrants and immigration policy in Asia and the Pacific: a quantitative assessment of current theoretical models beyond western countries

This article empirically assesses the validity of current theoretical models of attitudes toward immigrants and immigration policy in the Asia-Pacific region. This paper takes representative data from the World Values Survey and implements a multilevel model to test five of the main theories in the literature: the human capital theory, the social capital theory, the political orientation theory, the contact/group threat theory and the economic competition theory. The results from the analysis lend credence to the important effects of human capital, social capital and political-ideological variables on respondents’ attitudes toward immigrants and immigration policy. However, the results provide mixed and weak evidence for the contact/group threat theory and the role of economic determinants. Importantly, economic determinants tend to be more powerful in shaping people's attitudes toward immigration policy than shaping attitudes toward immigrants as people. Altogether, this article sheds new light on the validity of current theoretical models based on western countries for other areas of the world. Finally, the results from the paper also support the usefulness of non-economic, as opposed to purely economic, models in the understanding of individuals’ attitudes toward immigrants and immigration policy in the Asia-Pacific region.     

Islamic Militancy in East Africa

This paper examines the relative political significance of domestic and transnational Islamic militancy in three East African countries: Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. It seeks to identify, describe and account for the sources and significance of such militancy, with a focus upon the significance of al-Qaeda and regional affiliates. The paper argues that, encouraged by the post-9/11 international fall out, regional Islamic networks work towards improving the perceived low political and economic status of Muslims in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. At present, however, the political significance of Islamic militancy in the three countries is low.     

The muslim experience in the Balkan states, 1919‐1991

This article analyzes the effects of nationalizing policies of the state, processes of democratization, and uneven socio-economic development on the rise of Kurdish ethno-mobilization led by the PKK terrorist organization since the 1980s in Turkey. Three features of the Turkish modernization context are identified as conducive for the rise and continuation of Kurdish ethno-mobilization: a) a nation-building autocratic state that resisted granting cultural rights and recognition for the Kurds; b) democratization with the exclusion of ethnic politics and rights; c) economic regional inequality that coincided with the regional distribution of the Kurdish population. It is argued that autocratic policies of the state during nation-building accompanied the development of an illiberal democracy and intolerance for cultural pluralism. These aspects of Turkish democracy seem to be incompatible with both the liberal and consociational models of democracy that accommodate ethnicity within multiculturalism.     

Introduction: Governing the Asia Pacific--beyond the 'new regionalism'

This paper provides a broad introduction to the special issue and examines the main contours of regional governance in the Asia Pacific. It suggests that prevailing theories of regional co-operation in the Asia Pacific fail to pay due heed to the manner in which regional integration is rooted in domestic coalitions, economic strategies, and state forms that prevailed in the boom years of the 'Asian Miracle'. The paper then goes on to argue that the collapse of the developmentalist project has given way to the new regulatory state, which in turn spawns new forms of regulatory regionalism that place a heavy accent on policy co-ordination and harmonisation.     

Labour involvement in national and regional transformation processes: The case of Chile

This article argues that regionalisation should be analysed as a multi-layered process. Such an analysis shows the complexities of current transformation processes at the global, regional and national level. A perspective on labour issues is especially useful as it provides a focus on one of the most important aspects of globalisation-changes in production structures across borders. It also points to how labour movements are affected by these changes and how they readjust their strategies. The case of Chile is chosen as an early example of the so-called neoliberal model. Furthermore, regionalisation and strategies of integration into the world economy are central to Chile's economic model. This article intends to show the interconnections between national and regional processes of transformation in a global perspective, with a focus on the issue of labour and trade unions .     

Economic effects estimation for the Eurasian Economic Union: Application of regional linear regression

This paper aims to provide a coherent analysis of the economic impact accession to the Eurasian Economic Union has had on the economies of current member states and what affect membership would have on the economy of Azerbaijan. By applying a Linear Regression Model we find that membership to this regional bloc has yielded minimal financial benefits for the existing members. However, for most states, accession has increased the trade deficit with Russia and that a membership would likely produce a similar negative outcome for Azerbaijan in addition to undermining national economic and energy policy making.