Policy design and public support for carbon tax: Evidence from a 2018 US national online survey experiment

Public support for policy instruments is influenced by perceptions of how benefits and costs are distributed across various groups. We examine different carbon tax designs outlining different ways to distribute tax revenues. Using a national online sample of 1,606 US respondents, we examine support for a $20/ton carbon tax that is: (1) revenue neutral: revenue is returned to citizens via tax cuts; (2) compensation-focused: revenue is directed to helping actors disproportionately hurt by the tax; (3) mitigation-focused: revenue funds projects reducing carbon emissions; and (4) adaptation-focused: revenue is directed to enhancing community resilience to extreme weather events. We find devoting revenue to mitigation raises overall support for carbon tax by 6.3 per cent versus the control (54.9 per cent) where no information on spending is provided. Other frames raise support in specific subgroups only. Revenue neutrality raises support among lower-income households (+6.6 per cent) and political independents (+9.4 per cent), while compensation increases support among lower-income repondents (+6.1 per cent).     

Intermunicipal cooperation,public spending and service levels

ABSTRACT

Local governments can increase size in particular policy fields through cooperation with other local governments. This is often thought to improve efficiency, but there is little empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis. We study the case of the Netherlands, which has been a veritable laboratory of intermunicipal cooperation (IMC), using panel data for 2005–2013. We find no evidence that IMC reduces total spending of the average municipality. Indeed, IMC seems to increase spending in small and large municipalities, leaving spending in mid-sized municipalities unaffected. In one specific field, tax collection, spending may be reduced through IMC. Spending in this field is low, which may explain why total spending is unaffected. Instead of lowering spending, municipalities may have used possible cost savings as a result of IMC to improve public service levels. We do not find evidence substantiating this hypothesis, however.     

No miracles here: Trade policy,fiscal policy and economic growth

In this paper we consider whether the rate of growth following trade liberalisation differs significantly from growth in other developing countries. We find that it does not. Given this result we explore whether these growth effects are offset by changes in other policy variables, namely changes in fiscal policy. Governments increase welfare spending as a response to greater exposure to international trade. We find evidence that countries that liberalise their trade regimes increase their spending on welfare but not other forms of expenditure. However, once we control for the effects of fiscal policy, trade liberalisation still has no growth effects.     

Remittances,Regime Type,and Government Spending Priorities

Previous work suggests that remittances enable governments to reduce spending on public services and divert resources to serve their own interests. We argue this need not occur. Building on recent work which shows that the impact of remittances is contingent on the domestic environment in remittance-receiving countries, we hypothesize that (1) remittances are more likely to increase government spending on public services in democracies than in autocracies and (2) remittances are more likely to finance activities that deter political competition in autocracies than in democracies. Using a sample of 105 developing countries from 1985 through 2008, we find strong support for our hypotheses when examining the impact of remittances on public education, health, and military spending. We also provide suggestive evidence for the mechanism underpinning our results: micro-level evidence on remittance recipients’ preferences and political engagement.     

Tax Innovations and Public Revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

We study the effect of two tax innovations – value added taxes (VAT) and autonomous revenue authorities (ARA) – on tax revenues in sub-Saharan Africa. The dataset consists of 47 countries over 1980–2010. We find that VATs have no effect on total tax revenues, neither in the short- nor in the long-run. ARAs lead to higher tax revenues in the short- and medium-run, but the effect dissipates over time. The main conclusion is that tax innovations are not a panacea to overcome the revenue shortages in African countries, but they are helpful in the short- and medium-run.     

The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR Applications

ABSTRACT

This article explores the fiscal effects of aid in Ethiopia using the Cointegrated Vector Auto-Regressive (CVAR) methodology to model complex long-run and short-run dynamics. We use national data for 1961–2010, including a measure of aid capturing flows through the budget as measured by the recipient. The data suggests three main conclusions on the long-run equilibrium. First, government long-term spending plans are based on domestic sources, treating aid as an additional source of revenue. Second, both grants and loans are positively related to tax revenue. Third, aid is positively associated with spending, with a particularly strong relation between capital expenditure and grants. Overall, our results show that aid in Ethiopia had beneficial fiscal effects.     

The Impact of the Housing Bubble on the Growth of Municipal Debt: Evidence from Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the recent Spanish housing boom and the subsequent burst on local public finances. Particularly, we investigate the effect of the rise and later fall in revenue from urban development on local government debt. Using a sample of the Spanish largest municipalities in the period 2003–2011, we find that debt was substituted by revenue from urban development during boom years and this substitution effect vanished after the burst of the boom. Our results also reveal that local public finances have worsened after the burst of the housing bubble since now they have larger current spending and smaller savings.     

‘Faulty’ fiscal illusion: examining the relationship between revenue diversification and tax burden in major US cities across the economic cycle

We investigate how revenue diversification affects tax burden in major U.S cities as it interacts with fiscal balance reported in the general fund over the economic cycle. We find that more diversified cities have higher tax burdens, and that this effect is strengthened when cities maintain a large surplus in the general fund. We also test models of revenue diversification's impact on tax burden using data from 1995 to 2010, separated into good fiscal years (1995-2001, 2004-2007, 2010) and bad fiscal years (2002-2003, 2008-2009). Model estimates show that greater revenue diversification leads to higher tax burden in bad fiscal years but this outcome is not found in good fiscal years. Cities seek greater revenue diversification when they are experiencing economic recessions. This study contains important implications for local financial management and contributes to the literature on revenue diversification and tax burden.     

An Analysis of Institutional and Political Factors Affecting State Capital Expenditure

Abstract

This article examines state government spending patterns for capital projects during the late 1970s and early 1980s as a function of some of the institutional arrangements and procedural characteristics of state legislatures. The analysis is informed by the literature on distributive policymaking, which argues that lawmakers seek to send targetable benefits, such as capital projects, to their constituencies in pursuit of personal electoral benefits. Using a pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series approach, the authors find that states with a large number of seats in the lower chambers of their legislatures devoted a somewhat smaller portion of their state budgets to capital projects than did states with smaller lower chambers, ceteris paribus. Contrary to some log‐rolling models, the number of appropriations bills employed by a legislature seems to discourage capital spending, as does membership turnover in the upper chamber. This indicates that the capital budgeting process is not nearly as dominated by the executive branch as is commonly believed.     

Fiscal Reforms and the Fiscal Effects of Aid in Uganda

Abstract

Uganda implemented public expenditure and revenue management reforms from the early 1990s with specific aims of improving budget planning and aligning aid with fiscal priorities. The dynamic relationship between aid and domestic fiscal aggregates is analysed using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model with annual data for 1972–2008 and quarterly data for 1997–2014. Aid has been a significant element of long-run fiscal equilibrium, associated with increased tax effort and public spending and reduced domestic borrowing. Fiscal reforms have improved aid and expenditure management, contributing to improved fiscal performance in Uganda, with lessons for other African countries.     

The effects of tax instability on budgeting and financial management in developing countries

Budgeting and financial management in developing countries is made particularly difficult by fluctuations in revenues. This paper considers the variety of factors that underlie such revenue variability, including policy, economic and administrative phenomena. Empirical analysis of government revenue in stability in both Bangladesh and Burk in a Faso is conducted to document the extent of the issue and to suggest how such analysis can shed light on the underlying causes of revenue fluctuations.     

Financing the decentralization of urban services in developing countries: Administrative requirements for fiscal improvements

Rapid urbanization in developing countries is placing increasing strains on the financial capacity of governments to provide the urban services and infrastructure that will be needed to promote sustainable economic growth. The growing complexity of urban systems in developing countries and the financial constraints on central government agencies are pressuring governments to decentralize a wider range of responsibilities for financing and providing public services in urban areas. Experiments with five approaches to local finance in many developing countries have focused more on revenue generation than on strengthening the administrative capacity of local governments to manage new responsibilities. The success of decentralization and of local revenue generation in the future, however, will depend on strengthening the ability of local governments to manage revenues and expenditures more efficiently and to maintain urban services more effectively. Dennis A. Rondinelli is senior policy analyst and principal scientist in the Office for International Programs at the Research Triangle Institute, PO Box 12194, Research Triangle Park NC 27709. Dr. Rondinelli has served as an advisor to governments in developing countries and international assistance organizations on public administration, municipal management and urban development policy, subjects on which he has published ten books and more than one-hundred articles. His most recent books includePlanning Education Reforms in Developing Countries (Duke University Press),Urban Services in Developing Countries, (Macmillan), andDevelopment Administration and U.S. Foreign Aid Policy (Lynn Rienner).     

For Health,Strength, and Daily Food: The Dual Impact of Remittances and Public Health Expenditure on Household Health Spending and Child Health Outcomes

Abstract

Child and infant mortality in developing countries decreased 33.5 per cent and 30.9 per cent, respectively, during 1995–2009, while remittances and public health spending more than doubled. I examine how remittances and government health spending improve these child health outcomes. Neither government health spending nor remittances causally affect household health spending. Public health spending has an insignificant negative impact on mortality. The increase in remittances causally accounts for 32 per cent and 37 per cent of the decline in child and infant mortality, respectively. Remittances reduce mortality through improved living standards from the relaxation of households’ budget constraints.     

Does Conditionality Mitigate the Potential Negative Effect of Aid on Revenues?

Abstract

This paper assesses whether conditionality in IMF-supported programmes has helped offset the potential negative effect of foreign aid on tax revenues. The analysis – carried out on panel data covering 1993-2012 for 111 low- and middle-income countries – shows that growing use of revenue conditionality by low-income countries partially offsets the depressing effect of foreign grants on tax revenue, particularly on taxes on goods and services. The impact of conditionality is strong in countries where aid dependence is high and where institutions are strong, suggesting that revenue conditionality cannot substitute for weak institutions in mitigating any negative effect of aid on tax revenue collection.     

Political Competition and Local Social Spending: Evidence from Brazil

Electoral theories of democracy imply electoral competition insures accountability. Using data on local elections, socioeconomic factors, and municipal budgets from more than 5,000 municipalities in Brazil for the years 1996, 2000, and 2004, we find that municipalities with more competitive elections allocate less to social spending compared to municipalities with little political competition. We argue that previous theory on political competition and public goods obscures the critical role that financial resources play in shaping the dynamics of social spending and political competition. Municipalities with small budgets lack the resources necessary to engineer convincing electoral victories. Where resources are negligible, voter turnout is low, and incumbents rarely win reelection. Incumbent parties in municipalities with large financial resources win big. Armed with adequate resources, incumbent parties mobilize voters and win by large margins. This new argument and evidence reconcile contradictory findings in the existing literature on competition and public goods.     

Are Tax Havens Good Neighbours? FDI Spillovers and Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of tax havens on non-tax haven countries in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI). We analyze the importance of agglomeration effects by including FDI inflow levels in tax havens and capture geographic spillovers by measuring proximity to the nearest tax haven. Our analysis yields several interesting findings. First, using panel data for 142 countries, we find evidence of positive spillovers from tax havens to nearby developing countries, but not to nearby developed countries. Second, restricting our panel to developing countries, we find the positive effect of tax haven FDI on developing countries to be robust. Third, we find that geographic distance matters for financial flows: developing countries which are the closest to a nearby tax haven benefit the most in terms of FDI inflows. This result is robust to accounting for spatial interdependence of FDI.     

The challenge of design of intergovernmental relations in economies in transition

The governments of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are at a crucial juncture in their movement from highly centralized command economies to more decentralized market economies. While there is a belief in these countries that decentralization brings greater economic efficiency, the reality is that such a transition is a difficult process. This paper examines what types of administrative reforms are needed for the decentralization process, how far along the countries are with respect to these reforms, and what reforms are missing. As we discuss, many of the necessary administration reforms are missing and we argue that more attention must be paid to these elements for successful decentralization of these governments.

This paper examines the recent experience and reform needs of the key administrative aspects of the design of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition in Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union. There is a widespread realization in all of these countries that decentralizing government will help increase efficiency in the public sector just as privatization will improve efficiency in their economies. Decentralization of government operations is also attractive as a way to cement a democratic form of government. Despite the appearances of the existence of an already decentralized system, such as in the case of the Soviet Union, this experiment started in practically all cases with a lack of institutions and experience on how decentralized government operations should be organized.

As different as these countries are, there are many similarities in the reform process they are following in order to decentralize government structure. While the basic components of a decentralized system of government are emerging in many of these countries the structure of government has not fully evolved in a manner that can support such a decentralized system. Often, governments remain structured along a vertical hierarchy: information, budgetary authority, and revenue pass from the central government down to subnational levels of government while little communication or interaction exists at a horizontal level. In general, the assignment of revenue and expenditure has not been clearly defined among the two or three levels of government, central government transfers continue to occur in a relatively ad hoc manner, and the entire budgeting system still rests in many cases on more or less formal system of negotiations and bargaining among the different levels of government. There has been some change in this structure in certain countries. Over the last three years, both Poland and Hungary have legally increased the automony of subnational governments. In 1994 in Russia a new and more transparent system of intergovernmental grants has been established between the federal government and the regions. In 1994 also, Latvia introduced a more transparent formula-driven, transfer formula for the regional and municipal governments.

The focus of this paper is to develop a “blue print” for necessary changes in organization and administration of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition. While many experts have recently been discussing the public finance policy components of this new, evolving relationship among levels of government, less attention has been paid to the structural and administrative challenges and the information design issues that must be met in order to develop and support a system of intergovernmental relations.

The paper is organized as follows: First we review the major responsibilities and their allocation among levels of government, the assignment of revenue sources, and the system of transfers. We then turn to a discussion of the current experience of Eastern European and NIS countries in the context of the structural components of an intergovernmental fiscal system. Next, we analyze the organizational reforms that are necessary for the efficient functioning of a decentralized system of government in the economies in transition. Finally we “rate” the transition economies in relation to their current design of the system of intergovernmental relations and support mechanisms.     

Managing Local Intergovernmental Revenues: The Imperative of Diversification

Abstract

Municipal governments have employed a variety of strategies to address their ongoing revenue crises throughout the past several decades. One such strategy that has been employed with great consistency is the use of intergovernmental revenues (IGR). Given this trend, coupled with the fact that we know little about the dynamics of IGR, this paper presents one of the first multi‐year examinations of its use at the local level. Using data from 76 villages and cities in Cook County, IL (greater Chicago) for 1996–2000, we examine IGR use from the perspective of revenue diversification. The analysis indicates that during this period, local governments in Cook County (1) diversified their own‐source revenues and decreased dependence on the property tax; (2) maintained a consistent dependence on IGR; and (3) diversified and significantly altered their IGR structures. We also examine the demographic and organizational correlates of IGR diversification, and find it to be unrelated to characteristics such as population, property tax base, professional administration, and organizational capacity. As a result, we conclude that IGR diversification is a strategy that ought to be considered by all municipalities regardless of size or structure.     

The effect of fiscal transparency on corruption: A panel cross-country analysis

Both academicians and practitioners have advocated for increased fiscal transparency in government as a means of promoting budget discipline, improving functioning of the public sector, fostering greater accountability, and fighting the global menace of corruption. Despite worldwide calls for greater disclosure, empirical analyses of whether and how fiscal transparency actually affects governance outcomes are still limited. This study draws on public choice and principal–agent theories to demonstrate how public disclosure of budgetary information helps deter government corruption. The data from 95 countries over the period 2006–14 provide evidence that more fiscally transparent countries are perceived as less corrupt. We also find that fiscal transparency matters most at the final stages of the budget process when information disclosure reflects actual government spending. Data also confirm that a Citizens Budget can serve as a strong anti-corruption tool.     

The Effect of Food Price Changes on Child Labour: Evidence from Uganda

Most people in developing countries spend up to 60 per cent of their income on food, even though the majority of them are farmers. Hence, a change in food prices affects both their revenue as well as expenditure, and it may thereby affect their labour market decisions. Using the Uganda National Panel Survey and monthly regional food prices, this paper examines the effect of changes in food prices on child labour. The empirical evidence shows that an increase in food prices is linked to an increase in the probability and the intensity of child labour. We find the effect of food price increases to be smaller among landowning households, which is consistent with the view that landowning households can better compensate for price shocks. The empirical results suggest that periodic shocks in food prices may have longer lasting effects on economic development in developing countries through the channel of child labour.