Debt crisis of the less developed countries and the transfer debate once again

In the perspective of substantial amount of net transfers from the debtor less developed countries (LDCs) to the creditor developed countries (DCs) in the recent debt crisis years, there is a renewed debate (that started in the context of German reparation payments after the First World War) on the question of transfer burden of debt. The present study assembles some evidence to show that the LDCs in general expanded their export‐volumes and faced losses in their export unit values in the process of their debt repayments. Many LDCs faced this transfer burden of debt irrespective of whether their export drive was in the field of primary products or manufactures. Thus the Keynesian analysis for German transfer problems seems to be relevant in the context of the present experience of the LDCs. For some debtor countries, the ‘insoluble’ transfer problem mentioned by Keynes exists as they are facing ‘Fisher's paradox’: The more the debtors pay, the more they owe.     

How Asian countries understand policy experiment as policy pilots?

Policymaking based on the classical experimental design is regarded as a golden rule in the field of public policy. Despite the methodological superiority of randomized control experiment, the practices of policy experiment differ across countries, reflecting the different intentions of policymakers. This paper reviews how policy experiments are practised in Asian countries, especially Korea, China, and Singapore. As our review suggests, the term ‘policy pilot’ is preferred to ‘experiment’ as the former is considered as an exemplar proposed by the central government. At the same time, the selection of pilot sites depends on central government’s political and practical (rather than methodological) consideration. Moreover, the utilization of policy pilots does not solely depend on the success of the pilot programme or the effect size per se. As the policymaking process is a complex endeavour involving multiple streams of actors, resources, and solutions, Asian countries use policy pilot results to get ideas on how different actors respond to policy, instead of a determinant of policy decision. Therefore, we conclude that Asian countries emphasize less the rigorousness of experimental design than the possibility of pragmatic utilization of policy pilots.     

The less developed countries and the international monetary system

The functioning of the international monetary system is analyzed from the perspective of the less developed countries. They are shown to be significant beneficiaries of the introduction of special drawing rights in the International Monetary Fund, despite the unfavourable distribution formula, but to be confronted with exceptional difficulties in reserve management and exchange rate decision‐making in the period of currency turmoil since 1971. The currency realignments of these countries are summarized in terms of their decisions as to which major currencies to follow both in 1971 and 1973. Their interests in international monetary reform, particularly in the alternative SDR‐aid link proposals, are assessed. It is concluded that if the first‐best reform ‐ an altered distribution formula for SDR's in an SDR‐based system in which low interest rates for borrowers are retained ‐ cannot be achieved, the present system may carry more advantages for the less developed countries than a second‐best ‘link’ scheme.     

Suicide in developing countries (2): risk factors

The majority of studies on risk factors for suicide have been conducted in developed countries, and less work has been done to systematically profile risk factors in developing countries. The current paper presents a selective review of sociodemographic, clinical, and environmental/situational risk factors in developing countries. Taken together, the evidence suggests that the profiles of risk factors in developing countries demonstrate some differences from those in developed countries. In some developing countries, at least, being female, living in a rural area, and holding religious beliefs that sanction suicide may be of more relevance to suicide risk than these factors are in developed countries. Conversely, being single or having a history of mental illness may be of less relevance. Risk factors that appear to be universal include youth or old age, low socioeconomic standing, substance use, and previous suicide attempts. Recent stressful life events play a role in both developing and developed countries, although their nature may differ (e.g., social change may have more of an influence in the former). Likewise, access to means heightens risk in both, but the specific means may vary (e.g., access to pesticides is of more relevance in developing countries). These findings have clear implications for suicide prevention, suggesting that preventive efforts that have shown promise in developed countries may need to be tailored differently to address the risk factor profile of developing countries.     

Specifying Kidnapping for Ransom Epidemics at the Global Level: A Matched-Case Control Design

Criminal groups around the world frequently rely on kidnapping for ransom (K&R) to fund and further their cause. Some case studies suggest war torn, fragile, and corrupt countries experience K&R epidemics more often. While such factors may be present in some countries experiencing K&R epidemics, it remains to be seen if these failed state factors are generalizable to all nations. To date, no research has systematically examined the conditions that might facilitate K&R epidemics. This study used a case-control design comparing countries with high rates of K&R (experimental) to countries without a K&R problem (control). Findings suggest that problem K&R countries were less secure, less peaceful, and unevenly developed in relation to social and economic indicators. Better understanding of the conditions involving K&R problems offers to improve foresight and the development of effective policy responses.     

Organisations as Epistemic Capital: the Case of Independent Children’s Rights Institutions

Why do national organisations proliferate in practically all areas of policymaking and organisational life, and why are they involved in supranational networks and organisations? The article approaches this mystery by exploring how organisations are built and used as authorities in domestic policymaking. The empirical focus is on the establishment of the institution of children’s ombudsman and its uses in influencing Finnish child policy. The theory developed in the article suggests that organisations are accumulations of authority, here termed epistemic capital, which is the primary reason that they are established and sustained. Once these are institutionalised, various actors can use the authority of organisations to legitimate their policy objectives. The case of independent children’s rights institutions shows how this mechanism operates in child policy. The Finnish office of the ombudsman for children has worked actively to become an established ontological and moral authority in child policy, and it has also attempted to utilise the mandate and authority of the United Nations and the Convention on the Rights of the Child to pressure the state into more child-friendly policy decisions.     

Direct investment and industrial concentration

Cross‐national comparison of industrial concentration is considered here in terms of two hypotheses. The ‘technology/market size’ hypothesis [Merhav, 1969] predicts greater concentration in less developed countries than in the larger markets of developed countries. The ‘miniature replica’ hypothesis predicts that, when the degree of foreign ownership is high, industries in less developed countries may be less concentrated than their counterparts in advanced countries. Most cross‐national comparisons of firm size distributions support a predominance of ‘technology/market size’ effects. In this paper, data from the pharmaceutical industry in Brazil and other less developed countries are used to suggest that under certain conditions ‘miniature replica’ effects may prevail.     

A norm for a stabilizing budget policy in less developed export economies

The stabilization problem of an export economy is defined as smoothing the fluctuations in real income resulting from sharp changes in the value of exports. A stabilizing fiscal policy should be contractionary in good export years and expansionary in bad export years. A norm is developed to measure whether fiscal policy achieves this aim. The revenue impact of the budget is hypothesized to be generally stabilizing and the sample results bear out this hypothesis. However, the total fiscal impact is less clearly stabilizing, as expenditure policy may offset the revenue effect and tend to accentuate rather than smooth out fluctuations in real income.     

The ambiguity of US foreign policy towards Africa

Since 9/11, the American policy towards Africa has been strongly influenced by national security interests and in particular by the fight against international terrorism and Islamic radicalisation. Traditionally, the American Africa policy has been the result of bureaucratic policymaking with the Pentagon and the State Department playing prominent roles. The paper argues that in the current century, evangelical Christian lobby groups have gained increasing influence on policymaking on Africa. Because policymaking has been influenced by a number of different actors, the American Africa policy may appear incoherent and ambiguous if judged narrowly on the expectation that it only aims to take care of US national security concerns and economic self-interests. The paper concludes that Africa was important to the United States during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama because of the combination of strong security interests and strong domestic lobby groups that have pressured to place Africa on the US foreign policy agenda.     

Altruism but not Quite: the genesis of the least developed country (ldc) category

This article provides a historical account of the creation of the ldc category in 1971, analyses the motives of the main actors and examines the motivation of the UN to establish the category. A literature review, official document analysis and expert interviews indicate that, from the perspective of both developed and more advanced developing countries, the initial ldc identification process aimed to generate a reduced list of mostly small and economically and politically less significant countries. Contrary to the official narrative, this served the interests of both developed countries (by undermining the UN's implicit effort to normalise/depoliticise international assistance) and more advanced developing countries (disturbed by the discrimination created within the developing countries' group, favouring the most disadvantaged among them).     

Decentralised governance and empowerment of county governments in China: betting on the weak or the strong?

Decentralised economic development initiatives empowering local governments have gained currency in both developed and developing contexts. The empowerment of county governments in China is a case in point. This study uses difference-in-differences (DID) and the fixed-effects model with panel data (1997–2008) in counties in Zhejiang Province to empirically investigate the different impacts of the empowerment reform on county economies and fiscal revenue (FR). The results reveal that the reform has not promoted county economies as expected but has significantly increased FR. The reform has had a larger impact on less developed counties than on developed ones, which suggests a positive outcome of this decentralisation policy in China with regard to revenue generation. This study on county empowerment in Zhejiang Province provides some policy implications for other regions in China or developing countries.     

‘RENEWING DEFRA’: EXPLORING THE EMERGENCE OF RISK‐BASED POLICYMAKING IN UK CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Risk‐based policymaking is a form of reflexive policymaking that uses risk analysis to address both the primary objects of policy interventions and their secondary adverse consequences. As such, it has become central to debates about efficiency, control and accountability in UK government. To better understand the factors shaping its emergence, this article studies the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs' (Defra) adoption of risk‐based policymaking. In‐depth interviews with Defra staff suggest that risk‐based policymaking serves conflicting objectives and struggles to perform its ostensive functions. The article concludes, first, that risk understandings can be organizationally filtered in ways that reinforce rather than challenge entrenched policy practices. Second, that using risk‐based policymaking for audit purposes can undermine policymaking reflexivity. Third, that the value of risk ideas in reconciling competing accountability and blame‐avoidance pressures leads to risk ‘colonizing’ increasing dimensions of policymaking.     

Japan's post‐war protection policy: Some implications for less developed countries

This article examines some of the implications of Japan's postwar development for contemporary developing countries. Whilst acknowledging the qualitative differences in economic structure between Japan in 1945 and today's developing countries it argues that many of Japan's decisions on economic strategy throw light on current debates regarding the merits of free trade or protectionism as strategies for developing countries. It stresses however the key role played in Japan by the highly competitive nature of the internal market and stresses the need to consider policies to stimulate a more competitive internal structure within developing country markets.     

ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF POLICY CONFLICT IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER WATERSHED IN OKLAHOMA: AN APPLICATION OF Q METHODOLOGY[1]

ABSTRACT

Environmental policy formulation is a difficult business under the best of circumstances. In many cases, policymaking is complicated by factual uncertainty about the likely outcomes of policy intervention and by persistent value conflicts over desired policy ends and goals. This is nowhere more true than in formulating policy to manage adverse impacts to a watershed caused by natural and human activities. In the case of the Illinois River watershed in eastern Oklahoma, controversy over whether and how economic activities in the watershed should be regulated has effectively stifled meaningful policy reforms for three decades. As part of a test of a novel watershed management policymaking protocol funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency, a Q methodological study of stakeholders' perspectives on impact concerns and impact management preferences was conducted to diagnose the conflicts that have pre-empted policy initiatives for so long. We found that the conflicts that exist are not bipolar, but orthogonal – opening the way to potential super-optimum solutions that can satisfy everyone. This study demonstrates the power of Q methodology to assess conflict and thereby suggest strategies for its resolution.     

The Politics of Infrastructural Projects: A Case for Evidence-Based Policymaking

Many developing countries currently face tightening fiscal constraints as a result of the global financial crisis and associated reduction in both credit and demand. Policymarkers therefore have less fiscal space within which to undertake projects, so the opportunity cost of any misallocation of resources will be correspondingly higher. There is therefore an increasing need to rely more on evidence-based policymaking (EBPM). The is particularly so for large infrastructural projects, as these tend to be costly, and especially for transportation projects as these are particularly prone to result in sub-optimal outcomes. This paper examines the policy process for the implementation of the Jamaican Highway 2000, one of the largest and most costly infrastructure projects in Jamaica in recent years. A number of primary and secondary data sources were explored to ascertain the extent to which the decision to implement the project reflects a case for evidence-based decision-making in practice. This made it clear that the decision was taken at least partly on political grounds, largely in the absence of any supportive evidence, and on the basis of over-optimistic and unrealistic assumptions, and that this has created a number of serious, long-term challenges for Jamaica.     

Energy and Environmental Governance under Ecological Modernization: a Comparative Analysis of Nordic Countries

In this study of energy and environmental governance in four Nordic countries, we aim to shed further light on the question of organization of political governance under transition to ecological modernization. Our findings are that, in spite of a number of similarities, the Nordic countries seem to be pursuing programmes of ecological modernization under rather different regimes of political governance. However, we do not find the diversity of national energy-environmental governance regimes by reference to national policy-making styles. Instead, our analysis indicates that a more plausible explanation of the variety may lie in differences in their industrial and resource-based structure. Given diverse industrial structures, similar policy measures may have very different effects on national economies, and hence, motivate distinct governance measures. The paper concludes that a lock into a standardized ‘first-best’ mode of environmental governance may prove detrimental to environmental modernization in practice, since it might expose economies to unacceptable consequences and then to a fallback to traditional industrial strategies.     

Energy and Environmental Governance under Ecological Modernization: a Comparative Analysis of Nordic Countries

In this study of energy and environmental governance in four Nordic countries, we aim to shed further light on the question of organization of political governance under transition to ecological modernization. Our findings are that, in spite of a number of similarities, the Nordic countries seem to be pursuing programmes of ecological modernization under rather different regimes of political governance. However, we do not find the diversity of national energy-environmental governance regimes by reference to national policy-making styles. Instead, our analysis indicates that a more plausible explanation of the variety may lie in differences in their industrial and resource-based structure. Given diverse industrial structures, similar policy measures may have very different effects on national economies, and hence, motivate distinct governance measures. The paper concludes that a lock into a standardized 'first-best' mode of environmental governance may prove detrimental to environmental modernization in practice, since it might expose economies to unacceptable consequences and then to a fallback to traditional industrial strategies.     

Tax revenue instability,with particular reference to sub‐Saharan Africa

This article examines the temporal instability of tax revenues across a sample of developed and less developed countries. It is shown that instability is especially high in LDCs and is highest in open economies with low per capita income, high output variance and inflationary problems. Even allowing for these factors, revenue instability appears to be particularly high in sub‐Saharan Africa. Revenue instability can be expected, via the government budget constraint, to be associated with expenditure instability and/or instability in the sources of deficit finance. Cross‐section evidence for LDCs confirms that countries with high tax revenue instability tend also to have high expenditure instability. Time‐series evidence for six African countries however, suggests that revenues and expenditures do not move together in a uniform manner, and the direction of causality is generally ambiguous. There is some evidence however that foreign borrowing is used more to finance expenditure increases than to counteract revenue shortfalls.     

Suicide on the Indian subcontinent

The Indian subcontinent comprises eight countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bhutan, and the Maldives) and a collective population of more than 1.3 billion people. 10% of the world's suicides (more than 100,000 people) take place in just three of these countries, viz. India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. There is very little information on suicides from the other four countries. Some differences from suicides in Western countries include the high use of organophosphate insecticides, larger numbers of married women, fewer elderly subjects, and interpersonal relationship problems and life events as important causative factors. There is need for more and better information regarding suicide in the countries of the Indian subcontinent. In particular, studies must address culture-specific risk factors associated with suicide in these countries. The prevention of this important public health problem in an area of the world with myriad socio-economic problems, meager resources, and stigmatization of mental illness poses a formidable challenge to mental health professionals, policy makers, and governments of these countries.