A Macro–Micro Analysis of the Effects of Electricity Reform in Senegal on Poverty and Distribution

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) macro–micro model to explore the distributional effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Senegal. In the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in Senegal by income quintiles, between 1995 and 2001. The analysis demonstrates that poor and rural households are not the main beneficiaries of the expanded network. The results of the CGE model show that direct price effects are weaker than general equilibrium effects on poverty and inequality. Moreover, compensatory policies tested can help attenuate some adverse effects.     

Hispanics and foreign policy

Difficulties abound in any attempt to generalize about the role of ethnicity in foreign policy-making in the United States. First, some ethnic groups have become more iduential than others. Second, those that have succeeded have seen their influence rise and fall, depending on multiple factors and circumstances. Still other groups, despite their increasing numbers, have yet to attempt to influence foreign policy.

The Hispanic experience in iniluencing foreign policy belongs to the last category. Several factors account for the limited Hispanic influence in foreign policy, such as their fragmentation and their lack of clout in domestic issues. Other factors are more specifically political and have to do with the fact that active involvement by Hispanics in politics has yet to come.

The end of the Cold War has displaced security issues from the top of the foreign policy agenda of the United States. The overarching rationale granted by anti-communism is no longer available.

Simultaneously, the Summit of the Americas, of December 1994, has recognized that economic issues, such as trade and investment, have gained ascendancy in the Hemispheric agenda.

The primacy of economics in Hemispheric relations furnishes an opportunity for Hispanic businesses to participate more actively in trade and investment relations in the Hemisphere.

However, as revealed by the debate on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), trade and investment have proven to be very divisive issues for Hispanics. Consequently, the Hispanic business community, particularly those small and medium size companies that are already active in international trade and investment, will have to act deliberately to benefit fiom the opportunities that are emerging.     

The impact of tariff removal on poverty in Zimbabwe: A computable general equilibrium microsimulation

The paper uses a microsimulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of a complete removal of tariffs in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14,006 households derived from the 1995 Poverty Assessment Study Survey. This paper's novelty is that it is one among a small group of papers that incorporates individual households in the CGE model as opposed to having representative households. Using individual households allows for a comprehensive analysis of poverty. The complete removal of tariffs favours exporting sectors. Poverty falls in the economy while inequality hardly changes. The results differ between rural and urban areas.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual,Methodological and Policy Issues,and Selected Empirical Findings

Abstract

Global integration has increased the international linkages of financial markets for emerging market countries. A key channel for the international transmission of inflation and economic cycles is from exchange rate movements to domestic prices, known as exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). This article reviews the conceptual, methodological and policy issues connected with ERPT in emerging market and developing countries, and critically surveys selected empirical studies. A key contribution is to categorise and compare the heterogeneous methodologies used to extract ERPT measures in the empirical literature. Single equation models and systems methods are contrasted; frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable ERPT estimates are highlighted. The discerning policy-maker needs to ascertain by which methods ERPT measures were calculated, the controls and restrictions applied, and the time frame and stability of the estimates.     

Smallholder Livelihood Adaptation in the Context of Neoliberal Policy Reforms: A Case of Maize Farmers in Southern Veracruz,Mexico

Governments around the world have embraced trade liberalisation as a means of enhancing efficiency to realise economic growth and alleviate poverty. Likewise, the Mexican government implemented neoliberal policy reforms, the NAFTA in particular, to stimulate sustainable development. Using the Mexican maize sector as illustration, this article describes the adaptation process of smallholders to market changes shaped by these reforms. Going beyond the aggregated level, we have investigated smallholders' livelihood strategies. Contrary to what economic models estimated, our data suggests that farmers intensified the cultivation of maize rather than switch to sectors in which Mexico has a comparative advantage.     

NAFTA: The institutionalisation of economic openness and the configuration of Mexican geo-economic spaces

Since the second part of the 1980s, and with the negotiation and implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico's growth-and industry-orientated policies have shifted from the realm of public policy to a market-driven domain. This paper suggests that economic openness and the empowerment of market actors is provoking a new regionalisation of Mexico's core economic activities that will play a crucial role in the coming century. For Mexico, the core of NAFTA, so to speak, encompasses a cross-border territoriality covering two key southern American states: Texas and California, and key Mexican states located from the border to the Central plateau of the country. I also argue in this paper that Mexico's changing economic territoriality, triggered by the dominance of the outward-looking economic model, is exacerbating regional inequalities that prevailed in the country even before the outset of economic reforms. This is mainly the case of Mexico's southern region, still very agriculture-orientated, and with a deficit of those export-orientated industries currently fuelling economic growth. This region is the least endowed with mobile assets-such as technology, capital, knowledge-in order to exploit the opportunities of market-orientated policies. Consequently, social cohesion is at stake, not necessarily provoked by the market, but exacerbated by it, and the market mechanism cannot by itself address this problem.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices,and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.     

The new business environment of latin america and the caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean Region experienced dramatic changes in the 1990s. Politically, all but one country, are governed by a democratically elected government. Economically, import substitution industrialization policies (ISI) followed in the past, were replaced by liberalization programs aimed at reducing inflationary pressures and creating a competitive environment.

The significant increase in capital flows to Latin America in one single year, 1990, buried the 1980s as the “lost decade,” and the successful implementation of privatization programs region-wide prompted to affirm that the 1990s might constitute the “Latin America's decade.” Where does the euphoria come from? Is there any implicit promise to be derived from such international capital flows? Will the pattern be sustained? Has Latin America begun a new era? Are unfolding events on defiance of fundamentals?

These and many other questions can be raised regarding the spectacular transformation of Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly when analysts still debate about the Mexican crisis of 1994, investors eagerly pursue the agenda of a second privatization wave, experts around the world get fascinated with the high-tech push found in Latin America, bankers apply Latin American lessons to deal with the currency crisis in Asia, and casual observers recognize the value-creation process added by Latin American entrepreneurs who challenge the most adverse circumstances. Indeed, Latin America and the Caribbean is a land full of promises and contrasts, where there exists a head to head competition between globalization and nationalism, the haves and the have-nots, capitalism and communism, literature and high-technology, markets and governments, East and West, North and South, myth and reality, and … “despair and hope.”

There is no question, however, that Latin America and the Caribbean, being she a detached wide-land, is a region of great opportunity. Since the external debt crisis of 1982 and its aftermath, democracy, open markets, economic reform and privatization have blended to offer great expectations and opportunities for business and investment in the region. The new vision strongly questioned the status quo to render a new business environment to open the doors and light up the roads of the upcoming millennium.

It is the purpose of the International Journal of Public Administration to offer to its readers, for the very first time, a special issue devoted entirely to the discussion of the new business environment of Latin America and the Caribbean. We are, therefore, grateful to all the authors who generously are sharing with us the findings from their scholarly research. Given the far reaching consequences of their contributions, we, as guest editors of this special issue, had no other choice but to incorporate the fruits yielded by this symposium of thirty-seven papers in four issues in one single volume. The papers have been sorted according to the following four focal points: Privatization of State Owned Enterprises; Mexico; Economic, Financial and Foreign Investment Issues; and Economic Integration, Trade and Cultural Issues.

Part I of this special issue on “The New Latin American Business Environment” looks at one element of the broad economic strategy followed by most Latin American countries: Privatization of State Owned Enterprises. The role of governments is to provide the framework that will allow the private sector to create wealth. Notwithstanding, this partnership between the public and private sectors must ensure the inclusion of the poorer sections of the population. In many ways, the long-term sustainability of these economic programs will largely depend on this. The ten papers selected for this part, provide insight on how this phenomenon is affecting different Latin American countries.

The first paper by Shamsul Haque argues that there is a need to analyze the social consequences of privatization programs. Further research is needed to identify the main advocates and beneficiaries of privatization programs. According to the author, “critical economic conditions have not improved significantly after privatization, and in many instances, the conditions have deteriorated.” About fifty percent of Latin America's population of 470 million people live under poverty.

The late Sister Martin Byrne (1) documents in her paper, “Cananea Consolidated Copper Company from Nationalization to Privatization: 1972-1991 ,” the problems of ownership and management faced by La Cananea, a Mexican copper mine. Sister Byrne argues that “The Cananea mines were profitable under entrepreneurial and MNC ownership, but proved to be a financial drain on the government during the paraestatal period.”

The third paper by Garcia and Dyner, examined the reform and regulation of electricity in Columbia. According to the authors, the regulatory framework adopted by the government is going to determine the success of these programs. Furthermore, “the challenge is the change of public intervention in the sector, so that it regulates, supports, and supervises the decentralized activities of the firms, and liberates resources to be invested in other areas.”

Walter and Gonzalez provide interesting philosophical arguments on technology and human resources management derived from the cases of privatized companies in Argentina. The authors consider two variants, “systemic modernization and revamping of existing teams” to invite a reopening of the old debate on technological blending. They argue, however, that “to compete you do not necessarily need to ‘ be on the frontier.’”

Joan B. Anderson examines, the “Privatization, Efficiency and Market Failure: Transforming Ecuador's Public Sector,” privatization in Ecuador through the shift experienced by development theory with respect to the role of the public sector. In this paper the author points out that “while careful privatization can be positive, privatizing monopolies like the electric utility and/or quasi-public goods like highways are likely to be detrimental to long run economic development.”

Doshi identifies the successes and failures of the privatization program in Mexico by analyzing the cases of Mexicana Airlines, Aeromexico and Telmex. The author argues that even though the government was able to sell a number of state owned enterprises, a “successful” privatization program required appropriate macroeconomic policies and defining the role of foreign investment in economic development. One can argue then, that even though the size of the state is shrinking, its role is becoming more important.

The article by Vetter and Zanetta analyze also the case of Argentina. The authors argue that in order to consolidate the economic reforms implemented by the national government, provincial reform has to take place. A number of important lessons were identified.

John M. Kirk and Julia Sagebien present, in “Cuba's Market Rapprochement: Private Sector Reform - Public Sector Style,” the highlights of Cuba's process of transition towards a market economy by analyzing the conditions that lead to a market opening as well as the ends, the means and the actors of the ensuing process of economic reform.

Walter T. Molano contributes a paper, “The Lessons of Privatization,” based on his book The Logic of Privatization: The Case of Telecommunications in the Southern Cone of Latin America by looking at privatization as a process that may end up in varied outcomes as seen from microeconomic-, macroeconomic-, and political perspectives of analysis.

The focal point of Part II is Mexico. It is very clear that since the beginning of the decade, Mexico has made major efforts to transform its economy in order to play a more significant role in the global economy. Different attempts have been undertaken leading to: first, address the aftermath of the debt crisis of 1982; second, modernize and open the economy through a structural change that have included, among other programs, privatization, deregulation, fiscal deficit reduction, and trade liberalization: and third, change the political landscape.

Ephraim Clark models, in his “Agency Conflict and the Signaling Snafu in the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994,” the conflict as a government held option to default and introduce signaling by assuming that the Mexican government had monopolistic information on the economy's true situation. The author argues that “if steps had been taken in late 1993 and early 1994, the crisis element of the adjustment could probably have been avoided.”

Blaine's article examines the role of foreign capital in economic development. By studying the Mexican case, the author answers a number ofvery important questions: How are once protected markets going to react to a large inflow of foreign capital? How did Mexican authorities deal with these inflows? What are some of the lessons that could be derived from the Mexican experience?

Hazera's paper discusses the history and legal basis of Mexican financial groups. On the basis of various stock market and financial statement data, an examination is also made of the groups’ evolution from 1991 to 1994.

Eugene M. Salorio and Thomas L. Brewer consider, in “Expanding the Levels of Analysis of FDI for Improved Understanding of Policy issues: The Case of Mexico,” both macro-, and micro-level shifts of analysis which mutually complement one another, and yield, for example, a “components profile” of disaggregated national level FDI flows which depends on the type of the project. The authors identify far reaching implications for public policy that may be extrapolated from the case of Mexico to the new business environment faced by the Latin American countries.

Francis A. Lees suggests also, from another angle, that the crisis of December 1994 could have been avoided because the financial disequilibrium was clearly evident by mid-1994 just be looking at Mexico's GDP and balance of payments.

C. Bulent Aybar, Riad A. Ajami, and Marca M. Bear provide a comparative study of the recent experiences of Mexico and Turkey. The authors identify common elements in the development and eruption of the crises to conclude that “under capital mobility strong internal and external shocks may lead to explosive crises … even though overall macroeconomic balances are sound.”

James P. D’Mello shows in “An Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions in Mexico: 1985-1996,” that the Mexican crisis has led to an escalation of corporate restructuring such as mergers, acquisitions and joint-ventures.

Jiawen Yang joins the current debate on the causes of the recent Mexican financial crisis by arguing that “capital inflows that are not well absorbed by the private sector will cause financial instability under a fixed exchange rate regime.”

Part III of the new business environment of Latin America and the Caribbean includes ten papers on Foreign Investment, Economic and Financial issues which add significantly to the understanding of the overall transformation carried out in recent years by this region of the world.

Christopher Korth and Ajay Samant, and Craig A. Peterson andK. C. O’Shaughnessy recognize, respectively in the following two papers, “American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) from Latin America: An Opportunity for American Investors.” and “Financial Investment Via ADRs in Mexico and South America,” the usefulness of ADRs for operationalizing international diversification.

Juan Espana surveys the literature on models and tools currently used to predict exchange rate movements, and aims to suggest market solutions, economic policy measures and institutional arrangements to currency crises. The author analyzes the origin and evolution of the 1994 Mexican Peso crisis, its contagion effects on other Latin American economies, and the measures taken by the affected countries to manage the crisis.

Prakash L. Dheeriya and Mahendra Raj provide, in “An Investigation in Exchange Rate Behavior of Emerging Countries,” insights on the role that exchange rate risk plays by identifying similarities and differences through international comparisons.

Kumar's paper examines the important role of foreign direct investment in promoting economic development. The emphasis here is on the transfer of technology through foreign direct investment.

Neupert and Montoya study the characteristics of’ Japanese foreign investment in Latin America, with a focus on Brazil and Mexico. The authors looked at the preferred modes of entry and the post-entry performance of these subsidiaries.

Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. shows, in “Currency Movements and International Border Crossings,” through two ARIMAmodels that “northbound bridge traffic to El Paso is nonrandom and follows fairly well defined patterns each year.”

Trevor Campbell makes, in “A Note on the Current and Capital Accounts Compilation of Barbados under the Fourth and Fifth IMFEditions,” a comparison with respect to the composition and structure of the current and capital accounts of Barbados.

Janet Kelly and Alexeis Perera argue, in “Antitrust Policy in a Hostile Environment: Institutional Building in Venezuela's Procompetencia,” that the theories of bureaucracy in Latin America generally stress institutional weakness, political volatility and the politicized nature of government agencies which motivated, in Venezuela, the creation of the anti-monopoly agency called “Procompetencia.”

G. Scott Erickson and Andrea Nhuch recommend in ‘The Latin American Business Environment: Patent Protection Issues” a general hybrid system to deal with patent rights issues.

Finally, Part IV deals with a blend of Trade, Economic Integration and Cultural issues. Since much of the world still tends to view Latin America and the Caribbean in terms of stereotypes, it seems appropriate to end this special issue on the new business environment of the region with a group of papers that revisits the rich mosaic of Latin America, and permits appreciate her new reality.

Isaac Cohen argues, in “Hispanics and Foreign Policy.” that though the primacy of economics in Hemispheric relations provides an opportunity for Hispanic businesses, yet this community will have to act deliberately to benefit from the opportunities that are emerging.

Eva Kras contributes, in “The Viable Future of Mexico and Latin America: A New Business Paradigm,” with a South looking North approach for doing business that challenges the traditional view of business relations.

Guillermo Duenas argues, in “Cultural Aspects in the Integration of the Americas,” that managing cultural integration successfully requires a process of “intercultural learning.”

Andres A. Thompson, Francisco B. Tancredi and Marcos Kisil introduce, in “New Partnerships for Social Development: Business and the Third Sector,” the novel argument that corporate philanthropy can make the difference in social development because grantmaking is still the least frequent used strategy in Latin America and the Caribbean region.

Chris Robertson, Pol Herrmann and Kevin Duffy measure, in “Exploring Perceptions of Technology Between the United States and Ecuador,” perceptions of technology on the basis of the typology of motivators and inhibitors of technological growth.

Melissa H. Birch argues, in “Mercosur: The Road to Economic Integration in the Southern Cone,” that Mercosur represents, in contrast to the historical record of economic integration in the region, an adaptation to the contemporary political climate.

Wu and Longley discuss the rationale for extending NAFTA to Chile. Their study examines also how NAFTA negotiators may address issues such as trade and investment rules, intellectual property rights, and labor and environmental standards among other things.

Roger Kashlak and Srinath Beldona identify, in “Partner Reciprocity, Telecommunications Flows and Balance of Trade Patterns Between the United States and Latin America,” partner reciprocity as the issue at the core of the international long-distance industry.

Ines Bustillo extends, in “Overview of Economic-wide NAFTA Models” computable general equilibrium models to the case of NAFTA.

We hope that this special issue is informative and interesting to business-decision makers, regulatory policy makers, and students concerned with gaining an understanding of the ongoing transformation of Latin American and the Caribbean.

Finally, we are again most grateful to the contributors of articles for making this special issue possible. We would also like to thank Jack Rabin, editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Public Administration, for trusting us the delicate mission of providing to the readers a fresh view of the new business environment of Latin America and the Caribbean.     

Immigration to Ghana

Abstract

The globalization of international labor migration is manifest in all countries now engaging in migration systems that are growing in size and complexity and producing an increasing diversity of flows. Furthermore, many of the processes that create and drive these systems operate on a worldwide basis, the consequence of economic globalization, capital mobility and widespread realization by governments that human resources can be traded for profit like any other resource.

This paper looks at Ghana's immigration policy in the light of its economic situation. It characterizes Ghana's immigration policy as geared towards using immigration to attract critical foreign investment, transfer of technology and human resource capital/skills for socio-economic development. Running concurrently is the policy to prevent illegal immigration, transnational crime, economic exploitation, social corruption and human trafficking.

The paper concludes that when the economic situation of Ghana was buoyant in the 1960s it attracted many immigrants especially from neighboring West African countries, however when the country's economy saw a down turn, immigrants were used as a convenient scapegoat and many were expelled. The irony though is that while the current poor economic situation of Ghana has made Ghanaians to immigrate to other countries, the political stability of the country does attract other West Africans and non-Africans and it is affording the country the opportunity to streamline its immigration and citizenship laws.     

Fixed capital stock depreciation in developing countries: Some evidence from firm level data

Abstract

Previous growth accounting studies suggest severe capital underutilisation and mismeasurement of the stocks of capital in some developing countries. Using the firm level data sets from the World Bank surveys, this paper estimates the economic depreciation rates of fixed capital stocks in the manufacturing industries of seven developing countries. The findings indicate that the stocks of fixed capital may depreciate at higher rates in these countries, as compared with the normal rates usually assumed for advanced industrial countries. This study also discusses the economic and social forces that may influence the incentive to maintain capital appropriately and the implications of high depreciation for the total factor productivity (TFP) growth estimates and volatility of capital accumulation.     

Inside perceptions of public policy making in france: preliminary analysis

The study, based on interviews in Paris with government officials from the Office of the Pres-identify, Prime Minister's Cabinet, cabinets of five important ministries including that of the Economy, grands corps members, and Leaders of the trade unions, seeks to determine the reality of the process of goverrimentai policy making in the Fifth Republic and, most importantly, the influence of the major participants in policy formulation.

Cumulatively, the responses point out that the president and prime minister are viewed as the top arbiters of public policy, in the general and social and economic areas. They are followed, in decreasing order , by the Minister of the Economy, the ministers of important ministries, National Assembly, higher civil servants (especially members of the grands corps), Senate, and trade unions. Characteristically, all groups of participants interviewed have tended to rate their own part in the policy process more highly than the other groups had rated it.

In general, the preliminary analysis up-holds and corroborates the strength of the executive in the Fifth Republic.     

From ‘Constructing Socialism’ to a ‘Socialist-oriented Market Economy’ in Contemporary Vietnam: A Critique of Ideologies

Abstract

In power, the Vietnamese Communist Party has experienced three ‘moments’ of growth, each with some differences of detail and of meanings: ‘traditional communism’; the transition from a planned to a market economy in the 1980s; and, since 1992, a ‘socialist-oriented market economy’. For each, the article discusses the ideologically defined nature of change; intentionality—‘how growth was to happen’; and the quantitative data used. It suggests that critiques throughout the period have engaged with the intentionality issue: in the first moment, by isolating the socialist relations of production within socialist construction as the cause of difficulties; more recently, by engaging with the lack of effective policy despite contemporary ideology's unreliable belief in policy as key to growth.     

SEEING THE FOREST FOR THE VILLAGE,NATION, AND PROVINCE: FORESTRY POLICY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT IN EARLY-TWENTIETH-CENTURY YUNNAN

Abstract

This article compares village, national, and provincial forestry policy in early-twentieth-century China, with a focus on Yunnan, making three important observations. First, by identifying villages as key arenas for the production of forestry policy, it highlights the importance of rethinking the political geography of forestry policy during this period, to establish a proper comparative baseline for evaluating policy implementation. Second, its comparisons reveal diverging interests in forestry at these three levels, ranging from village reforestation for ecological conservation to provincial afforestation for economic development. Third, it shows that policymakers in these three arenas deployed distinctive cultural and political resources to promote their policies. The localized formats and objectives of village policies may have rendered them relatively invisible to national policymakers, who promoted more general and systematic forestry frameworks as novel interventions into a seemingly neglected policy arena that demanded comprehensive and intensive political intervention.     

Introduction to a Special Section on ‘Exchange Rate Pass-through in Developing and Emerging Markets’

Abstract

The interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in emerging market and developing economies has burgeoned in the last two decades. Small, open and trade-dependent economies embody special features that can make it difficult to obtain reliable estimates of ERPT. This Special Section includes a survey of recent research in developing and emerging market countries on ERPT, focusing on the monetary policy relevance of ERPT.

The frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable ERPT estimates are highlighted. Many empirical issues raised in the survey are illustrated by the macro- and the micro-economic empirical studies on South Africa (SA) included in this Special Section, and an earlier published JDS paper on ERPT in SA.     

American opinion toward terrorism: The Reagan years

Abstract

Using a variety of public opinion sources, this article explores American attitudes during the two Reagan administrations toward terrorism. It establishes the salience of terrorism in the public's mind, the perceived causes of terrorism, opinion about preventing future terrorist incidents, and attitudes on negotiating with terrorists. The paper also examines sentiments about military retaliation options and reviews beliefs about media coverage of terrorism. In this overall attitudinal context, the study touches on the theoretical relationship between public opinion and foreign policymaking, contending that the American public is responsible and sensible enough to comprehend the general nuances and basic complexities of an issue such as terrorism. Public opinion is judged to be a capable and logical determinant in foreign policy formation. The paper also concludes that there must be some symmetry between U.S. policy and public opinion on the issue for the policy to be effective.     

Pakistan's industrial families: The extent,causes, and effects of their economic power

There has been much interest lately in the phenomenon of industrial growth in Pakistan and in the leading industrial families who were in the centre of that growth. [G. F. Papanek, 1967; G. F. Papanek, 1971; H. Papanek, 1972]. There have been few efforts, however to measure directly the importance of these families and the causes and effects of their economic power. This article will attempt to provide some of these measures.

Section I estimates the overall concentration in the manufacturing sector in Pakistan and provides a few international comparisons. Section II will provide estimates of the more traditional concentration by industry, along with estimates of the leading families’ roles in those industries. Section III discusses the origins of both kinds of concentration. And Section IV will analyze the consequences ‐economic and non‐economic ‐ of this concentration. The data in this article relate mostly to 1968.¹     

The Guardian State and its Economic Development Model

Abstract

This article outlines the core features of a particular, resource-led development model, the oil-rich guardian state. Its key distinguishing feature from other resource-rich economies consists in its strong economic welfare objective function, which in line with its exceptional oil wealth renders its population amongst the wealthiest nations in the world. However, the guardian state also illustrates some of the negative externalities associated with resource wealth, namely the policy dilemma of directing seemingly abundant financial resources into the economy. The state faces a high propensity for waste, and for the systemic dilution of market incentives, thereby rendering sustained and self-generating economic growth more difficult than in less resource-rich economies.     

GDP Revisions and Updating Statistical Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reports from the Statistical Offices in Nigeria,Liberia and Zimbabwe

Abstract

The quality of economic statistics in Africa has been likened to a statistical tragedy. Currently many statistical systems in Africa are being updated. This report from the statistical offices in Nigeria, Liberia and Zimbabwe documents that base year, data and methods used to generate GDP estimates currently date from 1990, 1992 and 1994. There is a growing need for macroeconomic statistics, but a rebasing of GDP estimates is costly and time consuming. The work to update economic statistics in Nigeria and Zimbabwe is still ongoing, while efforts to generate an authoritative estimate of the Liberian economy have proved unsuccessful.     

Exploring the Contribution of State and Local-level Conditions to the Adoption of Different Types of Smart Growth Policies and Impact Fees in the United States

This research identifies some of the state and local conditions promoting the adoption of three types of smart growth policies and two types of impact fees in the United States. Factor analysis is used to identify three types of smart growth policies:

1. policies to concentrate new growth,

2. policies to exchange development rights and

3. policies to redevelop the inner city.

The two types of impact fees are: development-based and community-based. Conditions at both the state and local level predict the adoption of smart growth policies. Only conditions at the state level predict the adoption of the community-based impact fees. The findings suggest that future research on the impact of population growth on growth regulation contain measures of both local and state level growth. They also suggest smart growth be viewed as multi-dimensional, as cities adopt different types of policies, rather than the complete set of policies, for economic as well as environmental reasons. Last, more research is needed on the role of local environmentalist organizations, whose role in local policy adoption was significant.     

Policy analysis applications of remi economic forecasting and simulation models

This article surveys the ways that regional economic forecasting and policy analysis models have been used to provide information as an input for policy decision making in the public and private sectors. The major areas are as follows: forecasting and planning; economic development; transportation; energy and natural resources; taxation, budget, and welfare; United States policies; and environmental policies. The survey indicates that, while analysis and research may be required to prepare for a model simulation, the predicted economic effects of a policy can be very important information as an input for a wide range of policy decisions.