Unanticipated capital flows and the Mexican economy: An empirical investigation

This research explores the differential impact of unanticipated and anticipated foreign capital flows on Mexico's economy for the period 1965–85. If unanticipated flows cause appreciation of the real exchange rate and do not affect domestic expenditure, one can assume that the country's foreign exchange constraint is not binding. Based on empirical evidence, this hypothesis can be rejected. The implication is that Mexico's problems probably do not stem from overborrowing. Anticipated capital flows do affect private spending, but a negative coefficient suggests that the private sector has borne the brunt of post‐crisis adjustment. The results show that the Mexican government has dominated the expenditure of foreign loans throughout the period.     

POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY AND PERFORMANCE AUDIT: THE CASE OF THE AUDITOR GENERAL IN NORWAY

Performance audit is widely used in public administration, but, at present, little empirical evidence exists on its usefulness and contribution to accountability. Based on survey data from 353 civil servants in Norway, this article analyzes the auditees' perceptions of the audit. Performance audit was seen as useful by a majority of the auditees. If auditees agreed to audit criteria and assessments, were allowed to influence the process, had favourable opinions of the reports, and believed that the State Audit Institution contributed to accountability and improvement, then they regarded it as useful. Reports used for accountability purposes were not perceived as less useful. The auditees' administrative level, the use of the report to further interests, and attention from politicians, the media, and the Parliament impacted on the accountability dimension. These results indicate that performance audit can influence civil servants, but the influence is contingent on how the audited civil servants perceive the performance audit.     

Reframing development and accountability: the influence of sovereign credit ratings on policy making in developing countries

At a time of increased financial volatility, understanding ‘development’ requires that we trace spheres of accountability in order to detect the consequences of shifts in power structures from the public to the private sectors, especially. By focusing on the business of sovereign credit ratings, I argue that ratings have been particularly influential in this context not only because of their function as a benchmark for private investment, but because they now also enter into the calculations of policy makers in developing countries who are increasingly compelled to implement policies that reduce their countries' sovereign risk at possibly high costs for sustained economic growth. I explain that governments' eagerness to signal their potential as reliable capital recipients allows for credit ratings to become a powerful site of governance. This outcome is not justified by the quality of rating agencies' output, but by the subjective power of the notion of risk in a crisis prone environment that shifts accountability—through this disproportional influence of credit rating agencies—from the public to the private realm. The Argentine crisis of 2001 is presented here as a case study that illustrates these dynamics.     

Policy responses to capital inflows: lessons from mexico

This paper has two basic objectives. The first is to examine the impact large inflows of foreign capital have on the economies of developing countries. This is important because international investment in many “emerging” markets has increased rapidly, particularly since 1990. The second objective is to explain Mexico's recent (1994-95) currency and financial crisis and to assess the role large capital inflows (and outflows) played in these events. In general, the paper concludes that the Mexican crisis was a direct outgrowth of the large inflows of foreign portfolio investment that followed the announcement of the NAFTA in early 1990. But while these capital inflows served as the catalyst, the policy responses adopted by the Mexican authorities to deal with these flows bear the ultimate responsibility for the crisis. Accordingly, this paper reviews the most common alternatives for redressing the effects of capital inflows on the recipient's economy and balance of payments, and uses Mexico's recent experience to draw general lessons for countries that encounter similar situations in the future.     

Privatization in developing countries: ideal and reality

In both developed and developing countries, governments finance, produce, and distribute various goods and services. In recent years, the range of goods provided by government has extended widely, covering many goods which do not meet the purist's definition of “public” goods. As the size of the public sector has increased steadily there has been a growing concern about the effectiveness of the public sector's performance as producer. Critics of this rapid growth argue that the public provision of certain goods is inefficient and have proposed that the private sector replace many current public sector activities, that is, that services be privatized. Since Ronald Reagan took office greater privatization efforts have been pursued in the United States. Paralleling this trend has been a strong endorsement by international and bilateral donor agencies for heavier reliance on the private sector in developing countries.

However, the political, institutional, and economic environments of developing nations are markedly different from those of developed countries. It is not clear that the theories and empirical evidence purported to justify privatization in developed countries are applicable to developing countries.

In this paper we present a study of privatization using the case of Honduras. We examine the policy shift from “direct administration” to “contracting out” for three construction activities: urban upgrading for housing projects, rural primary schools, and rural roads. The purpose of our study is threefold. First, we test key hypotheses pertaining to the effectiveness of privatization, focusing on three aspects: cost, time, and quality. Second, we identify major factors which affect the performance of this privatization approach. Third, we document the impact of privatization as it influences the political and institutional settings of Honduras. Our main finding is that contracting out in Honduras has not led to the common expectations of its proponents because of institutional barriers and limited competitiveness in the market. These findings suggest that privatization can not produce goods and services efficiently without substantial reform in the market and regulatory procedures. Policy makers also need to consider carefully multiple objectives at the national level in making decisions about privatization.     

The growing challenges of providing pensions to state and local civil servants in an aging society

Much hope has been placed in the ability of Supreme Audit Institutions (SAIs) to enhance public accountability. SAIs' independence and professionalism lend promise to the chance that they might succeed where program budgeting, program evaluation, performance measurement and strengthened legislative oversight have failed. Little attention has been paid in the literature to political and organizational constraints on the ability of SAIs to enhance public accountability. The article examines the contribution of Israel's State Comptroller to enhanced accountability across three measures: audit coverage; type of audit coverage; and use of audit reports by the Knesset (Israel's parliament). Programs connected with crisis situations, large programs and direct provision programs are found to receive significantly more audit attention. The Comptroller conducted few audits of program effectiveness. The few reports used by the Knesset were almost all connected with crisis situations. Exploration of the reasons for these patterns reveals that: organizational politics considerations limit the willingness of state auditors to conduct effectiveness audits and relate to controversial issues; logistical and political considerations of Members of Knesset limit their interest in using audit reports; and the paucity of audit resources relative to the scope of government means that much activity is not scrutinized.     

The mexican financial crisis

In the period 1990-93 Mexico's economy experienced expansion and structural change. This was associated with economic opening, market deregulation, and large inflows of foreign capital. Mexico had dealt with the external debt problem through a Brady debt restructuring. This restructuring lowered the financial requirements of the public sector, improved market expectations, and set the stage for a decline in domestic interest rates.

In the early 1990s Mexico attracted fully one-fifth of all capital flows directed into developing countries. These inflows more than financed the current account deficit, and permitted Mexico to expand its official reserve holdings. The portfolio capital inflow bolstered the stock market, which appreciated in value. Mexico's entry into NAFTA provided another reason to be optimistic concerning economic and business prospects.

However, Mexico's external payments position was falling deeper into deficit. By mid-1994 it was possible to observe that the current account in Mexico's balance of payments had shifted further into deficit, and that the high unsustainable level of capital inflow was diminishing. Political violence and assassinations in 1994 caused foreign investors to look more carefully at investment prospects, and steadily rising interest rates in the United States created incentives favoring dollar rather than peso financial instruments. As peso interest rates began to rise, the Mexican government and commercial banks turned to dollar-indexed or outright dollar borrowing. By December 1994 this increased dollar liability position together with a runoff in foreign exchange reserves left Mexico in a difficult liquidity position. The December 20, 1994 devaluation failed to renew confidence in the viability of Mexico's payments position, and two days later the peso was floated. In the early weeks of 1995 a massive Mexican financial assistance package was provided by the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and others.

An analysis of the components of Mexico's GDP and balance of payments suggests that the financial disequilibrium was clearly evident by mid- 1994. Over the period 1993-94 domestic absorption had increased beyond the ability of the economy to sustain it. Parallel to this, the current account deficit had increased beyond the ability of foreign exchange resources to support this deficit. Failure by the government and central bank to take action in the third quarter of 1994 resulted in a runoff of foreign exchange reserves, speculative trading in the financial markets, growing skepticism concerning the viability of existing arrangements. Fiscal and monetary tightening early in 1995 produced an improved financial equilibrium, suggesting that similar action at mid-1994 might have avoided the near debt crisis that manifested itself in December 1994 jand the following weeks.     

Civil Service Reform in Ethiopia: Issues,Lessons, and Future Directions

This article provides an in-depth review of the successes and challenges of public sector reform efforts in Ethiopia with a view to help other developing countries, particularly African countries, learn from Ethiopia's experiences in this regard so that they can improve the content of and approach to their public sector reforms. It also identifies the gaps in the existing literature and puts forward implications for further research in the area. The public sector reform program of Ethiopia has shown successes particularly in the areas of service delivery to citizens. However, the reform program is entangled with challenges such as lack of accountability and transparency on the part of implementing institutions, inadequate material and moral incentive to employees thus crippling the capacity to manage the implementation process, and participation from the side of different stakeholders.     

Fighting Tax Evasion in Latin America: the contrasting strategies of Chile and Argentina

In the 1990s both Chile and Argentina embarked on efforts to tackle tax evasion. The strategies they pursued differed substantively: Argentina followed a coercive approach that created an elite audit team endowed with special legal powers, while Chile undertook a less spectacular service-oriented approach that improved the fiscal pact between state and society and enacted tax administration reform. Chile succeeded in permanently lowering tax evasion levels, while Argentina's success was short-lived and evasion levels soon returned to previous heights. Besides important differences in the institutional strength of these countries, the contrasting outcomes can be attributed in no small measure to the different strategies adopted. Their experience can provide some useful lessons in the elusive battle against tax evasion in Latin America.     

Recent trends in the evolution of Mexican financial groups

The collapse of the peso in late 1994 shocked the world financial community and severely tarnished Mexico's image as a “model” developing country. This event, however, would not have been so surprising if, in the post-NAFTA euphoria, greater attention had been given to substantive deficiencies in Mexico's commercial environment which contradicted the form of its modernization programs. An example of this phenomenon may be found in the 1990 promulgation of the Law to Regulate Financial Groups . The official purpose of the law was to foment the formation of large conglomerations of financial services firms, similar to the universal banks found in Germany, which could offer a variety of financial services under a common trademark and take advantage of economies of scale. The government hailed the law as a step toward enhancing the international competitiveness of Mexico's financial system. However, in substance, the law resembles two laws passed in the 1970s which preceded the 1980s financial crisis. Given this contradictory perspective, this paper examines the history and legal basis of Mexican financial groups as well as the evolution of financial groups from 1991 through 1994.     

Capital flows and financial stability: the mexican experience

This paper argues that capital inflows that are not well absorbed by the private sector will cause financial instability under a fixed exchange rate regime. Whether capital inflows, particularly portfolio inflows, are good or bad as perceived by the recipient emerging market depends on how they are allocated and used. They can, if absorbed properly, contribute to a reduction in the cost of capital and to domestic capital formation and economic growth. On the other hand, they can also flood the domestic market, build up official reserves, and appreciate the real exchange rate. Moreover, they are very sensitive to political and economic shocks. Empirical analysis of Mexico's recent experience reveals that the capital influx into Mexico in the past decade did not contribute much to capital formation and economic growth. Instead, they were to a large degree absorbed by official reserves and imports for consumption. Capital inflows were a major factor in Mexico's real exchange rate appreciation. Capital flows in Mexico are found to be adversely affected by U.S. interest rates.     

MULTI‐LAYERED ACCOUNTABILITY. PERFORMANCE‐BASED FUNDING OF UNIVERSITIES

In most Western countries there has been an increasing demand for new and different types of audit, evaluation and reporting systems that reveal the output of public sector organizations ( Pollitt and Bouckaert 2000 ). Quality assessments have had a profound impact on the funding of university research, most visibly in the UK. However, the relationship between qualitative and quantitative indicators of research performance has been an ongoing source of debate ( Bence and Oppenheim 2004 ). By exploring four different types of accountability relations, this paper investigates different stakeholders' perceptions of whether or not performance funding increases accountability and transparency, and poses the following questions: Does performance funding result in high accountability and high transparency? Does high accountability imply high transparency? Does high transparency lead to low accountability? Three main empirical sources have been utilized: a comprehensive survey of faculty at Norwegian higher education institutions, a stakeholder survey, and data from case studies of four universities.     

NAFTA: The institutionalisation of economic openness and the configuration of Mexican geo-economic spaces

Since the second part of the 1980s, and with the negotiation and implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico's growth-and industry-orientated policies have shifted from the realm of public policy to a market-driven domain. This paper suggests that economic openness and the empowerment of market actors is provoking a new regionalisation of Mexico's core economic activities that will play a crucial role in the coming century. For Mexico, the core of NAFTA, so to speak, encompasses a cross-border territoriality covering two key southern American states: Texas and California, and key Mexican states located from the border to the Central plateau of the country. I also argue in this paper that Mexico's changing economic territoriality, triggered by the dominance of the outward-looking economic model, is exacerbating regional inequalities that prevailed in the country even before the outset of economic reforms. This is mainly the case of Mexico's southern region, still very agriculture-orientated, and with a deficit of those export-orientated industries currently fuelling economic growth. This region is the least endowed with mobile assets-such as technology, capital, knowledge-in order to exploit the opportunities of market-orientated policies. Consequently, social cohesion is at stake, not necessarily provoked by the market, but exacerbated by it, and the market mechanism cannot by itself address this problem.     

‘RENEWING DEFRA’: EXPLORING THE EMERGENCE OF RISK‐BASED POLICYMAKING IN UK CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Risk‐based policymaking is a form of reflexive policymaking that uses risk analysis to address both the primary objects of policy interventions and their secondary adverse consequences. As such, it has become central to debates about efficiency, control and accountability in UK government. To better understand the factors shaping its emergence, this article studies the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs' (Defra) adoption of risk‐based policymaking. In‐depth interviews with Defra staff suggest that risk‐based policymaking serves conflicting objectives and struggles to perform its ostensive functions. The article concludes, first, that risk understandings can be organizationally filtered in ways that reinforce rather than challenge entrenched policy practices. Second, that using risk‐based policymaking for audit purposes can undermine policymaking reflexivity. Third, that the value of risk ideas in reconciling competing accountability and blame‐avoidance pressures leads to risk ‘colonizing’ increasing dimensions of policymaking.     

Public Sector Reform in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Many developing countries are constantly seeking to reform their public services as part of a wider agenda which supports moves to a market economy and better governance arrangements. Some have embraced public management reforms as the template for their activities with limited success. This paper considers existing research on the impact of public sector reform in developing countries and offers an alternative approach, through case studies of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, based on two keys elements: an agenda which attempts to shift developing countries to an outcomes based accountability approach operationalized through a “quality of life” framework; and, peer‐to‐peer learning.     

The Southern African customs union,cereal price policy in South Africa,and food security in Botswana

It is elaborated in this article that external factors may affect food security in developing countries even if these countries are not exposed to price instability in world food markets. This is the case in the Southern African Customs Union where the agricultural price policy in South Africa affects food security in Botswana, Lesotho and Swasiland. It is analysed quantitatively how cereal price policy in South Africa influenced the cereal import sector of Botswana in the period 1969–84. Cereal import prices increased due to Botswana's membership of the customs union, and cereal imports declined. The price increase was accompanied by a price‐stabilising impact.     

Financial Inclusion and Human Capital in Developing Asia: the Australian connection

The Australian government as part of its aid programme allocates large funds to improve financial inclusion in developing countries. However, this does not take into account low educational levels in these countries. The existing literature on financial inclusion also treats the issue as mainly supply-centric and does not take cognisance of the fact that poor human development and high illiteracy levels in developing economies may prevent a large section of the population from benefitting from financial inclusion efforts, because of low awareness and comprehension of the financial services available. This study uses a detailed three-stage methodological approach to examine the relationship between financial development and human capital in 21 countries of developing Asia. The results show that a significant negative relationship exists between financial development proxied by M2/gdp and pupil:teacher ratios and a strong positive relationship exists between physical access to banks and expected years of schooling. Further, our financial development and educational development indices also show no clear pattern in the selected countries' financial and educational development.     

Private administration of a public function: The news election service

The United States government has no elections office and does not attempt to administer congressional and presidential elections. The responsibility for the administration of elections and certification of winners in the United States national elections rests with the states. The states divide election administration responsibilities between state and local election officials, whose objective is an efficiently administered honest election, with the ballots correctly tabulated. The formal structure of election administration in the United States is not capable of providing tirely results of the presidential and congressional election. Similar structural difficulties in other policy areas often result in ad hoc operating agreements or informal cooperation among agencies at different levels of the federal system. In the case of election administration, however, the public officials have abdicated responsibility for election night aqgregation of the national Vote totals to a private organization, News Election Service, which is owned by five major news organizations. This private organization performs without a contract, without public compensation, and without supervision by public officials. It makes decisions concerning its duties according to its own criteria. The questions of responsibility and accountability have not arisen in part because of the private organization's performance record and in part because the responsibility was assumed gradually over a lengthy period without ever being evaluated as an item on the public agenda.     

Trade liberalisation,market deregulation and agricultural performance in Central America

One frequently encounters the argument that trade liberalisation and deregulation of domestic markets in developing countries result in increased incentives for agriculture. This proposition is considered for the Central American countries, all of which passed through fundamental policy change either in the 1980s or 1990s. After characterising the policy regimes in each country over various periods, the analysis moves to an inspection of agricultural trade performance. The evidence indicates that liberalisation of foreign trade and deregulation of domestic markets has not been associated with improved agricultural performance. It is suggested that the failure of agriculture to respond positively to policy changes can be in part explained by an unfavourable trend in world prices of the region's major tradable commodities.     

Understanding 'political stability': Party action and political discourse in West Bengal

In contrast to the party political turmoil that plagued New Delhi during the 1990s, West Bengal is an Indian state that has demonstrated remarkable stability. Atul Kohli has made much of this contrast, arguing that the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has held power in West Bengal since 1977 through the combination of its organisational and ideological coherence. His wider conclusion is that the institutionalisation of political parties is essential in staving off the 'crises of governability' faced by many democracies in developing countries. At a time when 'good governance' is a major theme within development studies, Kohli's thesis deserves close attention. This paper critically examines his work in two ways. Empirically, it questions elements of his portrayal of the CPI(M), and West Bengal's politics more generally, as 'exceptional'. In theoretical terms, it questions Kohli's treatment of political institutions, arguing that more attention should be given to institutional culture and political discourses.