Does Conditionality Mitigate the Potential Negative Effect of Aid on Revenues?

Abstract

This paper assesses whether conditionality in IMF-supported programmes has helped offset the potential negative effect of foreign aid on tax revenues. The analysis – carried out on panel data covering 1993-2012 for 111 low- and middle-income countries – shows that growing use of revenue conditionality by low-income countries partially offsets the depressing effect of foreign grants on tax revenue, particularly on taxes on goods and services. The impact of conditionality is strong in countries where aid dependence is high and where institutions are strong, suggesting that revenue conditionality cannot substitute for weak institutions in mitigating any negative effect of aid on tax revenue collection.     

Globalisation and Developing Countries – a Shrinking Tax Base?

This paper evaluates the impact of globalisation on tax bases of countries at varying stages of development. We see globalisation as a process that induces countries to embrace greater trade and financial integration. This in turn should shift their tax revenue from ‘easy to collect’ taxes (tariffs and seigniorage) towards ‘hard to collect’ taxes (value added and income taxes). We find that trade and financial openness have a positive association with the ‘hard to collect’ taxes, and a negative association with the easy to collect taxes.     

Tax Innovations and Public Revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

We study the effect of two tax innovations – value added taxes (VAT) and autonomous revenue authorities (ARA) – on tax revenues in sub-Saharan Africa. The dataset consists of 47 countries over 1980–2010. We find that VATs have no effect on total tax revenues, neither in the short- nor in the long-run. ARAs lead to higher tax revenues in the short- and medium-run, but the effect dissipates over time. The main conclusion is that tax innovations are not a panacea to overcome the revenue shortages in African countries, but they are helpful in the short- and medium-run.     

Need money? roll the dice

In 1990, the Mississippi Legislature legalized dockside casino gaming as a surrogate tax system for the state. Since the establishment of the first casino in 1992, the casino industry has become an important component in the state's revenue picture. During fiscal years 1993, 1994, and 1995, gaming taxes and fees accounted for 1.6, 4.1, and 5.04 percent of Mississippi's general fund revenue, respectively. In addition, certain localities have benefitted from the industry as well. Beyond the direct revenue received through local taxation, casino gaming has substantially increased both property tax revenue and sales tax collections. The Mississippi Gaming Commission believes, however, that long-term revenue stability depends on developing resort destinations as opposed to a continued reliance on day-trippers.

Colonists who balked at paying taxes to local governments were willing to purchase lottery tickets by those same governments⁽¹⁾ (yesterday).

Government no longer possesses the capacity to secure the cooperation of the citizenry in meeting the requirements of public need. Consequently, it uses a buffer to take resources from the citizenry without invoking their wrath⁽²⁾ (today).     

Urban unemployment and optimal tax policy in a small,open dual economy

This paper analyses optimal tax policies in a two‐sector model of an LDC, similar to that of Harris and Todaro [1970]. The analysis assumes a small, open economy with a non‐competitive urban wage which depends on prices of both agricultural and manufactured goods. Optimal policies are considered for cases where an employment subsidy in manufacturing and/or taxes on international trade are the only feasible instruments, and where government revenue has an excess burden. Comparisons are made with results obtained by Harris and Todaro, Hagen, and Bhagwati and Srinivasan, for similar models.     

Meeting the challenge: state revenue raising

Recent trends in state tax revenue reveal that overall reliance of states on taxes have been declining for the last 43 years. Faced with reduction in tax revenues, states have restructured their tax systems to meet public demand for more services. State income taxes are the one type of tax that has risen consistently. What causes state policy makers to rely on this type of tax? This research addresses this question.     

Socioeconomic impacts of the proposed federal gaming tax

We review the history of gaming and its taxation in the U.S., particularly in regard to the idea of “sin taxes” which were often presented as policy instruments intended to control problem gamblers. The review suggests that raising taxes neither encourages moderation nor replaces negative external costs. We follow the review with a socioeconomic impact analysis of a proposed four percent Federal Gaming Tax by simulating its impact on Clark County, Nevada for the period 1995-2004 using a large scale econometric multi-regional model. Clark County is of interest because it is where Las Vegas is located. The analysis reveals that the proposed tax would lead to a measurable decline in Clark County's jobs, population, disposable income, and total industrial during the forecast period. By 2004, total industrial output would be 1.3 percent lower under the proposed tax and Clark County would experience a loss of $1.39 in real disposable income for every gaming tax dollar collected by Federal Government. These reductions, coupled particularly with the loss of thousands of jobs in Las Vegas area hotels/casinos predicted by the analysis suggest that increased demands on social services in Clark County would result. These findings, together with the lack of evidence that raising taxes would promote moderation or reduce external negative costs, lead us to argue that excise taxes represent an unattractive option.     

Policy design and public support for carbon tax: Evidence from a 2018 US national online survey experiment

Public support for policy instruments is influenced by perceptions of how benefits and costs are distributed across various groups. We examine different carbon tax designs outlining different ways to distribute tax revenues. Using a national online sample of 1,606 US respondents, we examine support for a $20/ton carbon tax that is: (1) revenue neutral: revenue is returned to citizens via tax cuts; (2) compensation-focused: revenue is directed to helping actors disproportionately hurt by the tax; (3) mitigation-focused: revenue funds projects reducing carbon emissions; and (4) adaptation-focused: revenue is directed to enhancing community resilience to extreme weather events. We find devoting revenue to mitigation raises overall support for carbon tax by 6.3 per cent versus the control (54.9 per cent) where no information on spending is provided. Other frames raise support in specific subgroups only. Revenue neutrality raises support among lower-income households (+6.6 per cent) and political independents (+9.4 per cent), while compensation increases support among lower-income repondents (+6.1 per cent).     

An Impulse Response Function for Corporate Taxes in Barbados

For many years, corporate taxes have been an important source of Government revenue in Barbados. The variables, namely, rate of corporate tax, real income and the rate of interest were selected when applying an impulse response function to the model for corporate taxes. The function revealed the following results after respective new equilibria were attained: First, corporate taxes would contract if the rate of corporate tax had experienced an upward shock. Second, corporate tax inflows would rise sharply from an upward shock to real income. Finally, an upward shock to the rate of interest would result in a steep contraction in corporate taxes.     

‘Faulty’ fiscal illusion: examining the relationship between revenue diversification and tax burden in major US cities across the economic cycle

We investigate how revenue diversification affects tax burden in major U.S cities as it interacts with fiscal balance reported in the general fund over the economic cycle. We find that more diversified cities have higher tax burdens, and that this effect is strengthened when cities maintain a large surplus in the general fund. We also test models of revenue diversification's impact on tax burden using data from 1995 to 2010, separated into good fiscal years (1995-2001, 2004-2007, 2010) and bad fiscal years (2002-2003, 2008-2009). Model estimates show that greater revenue diversification leads to higher tax burden in bad fiscal years but this outcome is not found in good fiscal years. Cities seek greater revenue diversification when they are experiencing economic recessions. This study contains important implications for local financial management and contributes to the literature on revenue diversification and tax burden.     

Semi-Autonomous Revenue Authorities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Silver Bullet or White Elephant

A major component of tax administration reform in sub-Saharan Africa for the last 30 years has been the creation of semi-autonomous revenue authorities (SARAs). The effects of their creation on revenue performance have been much debated, although there are only a few quantitative studies. The core argument of this paper is that existing research suggesting diverse and contradictory outcomes has not taken account of trends in revenue performance in the years before the establishment of SARAs. Allowing for this revenue history our analysis, based on 46 countries over the period 1980–2015, provides no robust evidence that SARAs induce an increase in revenue performance. This does not imply that SARAs may not provide benefits for tax collection, but they do not demonstrably increase (or decrease) revenue collected.     

Local revenue structure under economic hardship: reliance on alternative revenue sources in California counties

This article investigates how a worsening economy affects local revenue structure, and whether the impact is moderated by the fiscal relationship within higher levels of government. The revenue potential of nontax sources – fees/charges and fines/forfeitures – is considerable for local governments under economic hardship. With the panel data from California counties over a period of 11 years (2000–2010), this article shows that reliance on nontax revenue largely depends on the economic and fiscal factors that vary across counties, and the effect of economy is contingent on local dependence on intergovernmental transfers. Counties are likely to raise nontax revenue when the economy worsens and their transfer-dependence increases, while the marginal effect of the economic indicators changes from negative to positive as transfer dependence increases. This article illuminates the characteristics of the two types of nontax sources in terms of the mechanisms of incentivising human behaviour and concludes with policy implications for researchers and practitioners.     

On the apparent benefits of higher productivity: An arithmetical illustration a comment

During the 1980s, like many other developing countries Nepal attempted actively to attract direct foreign investment. This article reports the results of a survey of the foreign‐owned firms in operation at the end of the 1980s. The motives of firms for their investment decisions in Nepal are summarised. The impact of foreign investment is assessed quantitatively using both financial and economic cost‐benefit criteria. In general, it appears that foreign investment has been beneficial to both the foreign investors and the national economy. Foreign investors from India have played a particularly important role. However, much of the national returns from foreign investment is derived from the payment of taxes, so that an excessively generous policy of tax incentives may not maximise national returns.     

Measuring tax effort in developing countries

The traditional methodology, as established by the International Monetary Fund, for measuring tax effort over time and in relation to estimated taxable capacity, is based on the tax ratio. The objects of the article are: (a) to demonstrate that government policy can not be deduced from the buoyancy of tax revenue as reflected in the observed rates of growth or relative magnitudes of the tax ratio; and (b) to propose an alternative measure based directly on policy determined discretionary changes in tax structures, with which the IMF taxable capacity measure, correctly interpreted, could be complementary.     

Revenue Portfolio and Expenditures: An Examination of the Volatility of Tax Revenue and Expenditure Patterns during the Great Recession

ABSTRACT

Local governments in the United States are diversifying their revenue streams and becoming less reliant on the inelastic revenue from property taxes. This article examines both how this affects local governments’ revenue stability in economic downturns as well as their levels of expenditures in key functions: capital and social services. Using data from North Carolina counties from both before the Great Recession and after, this article examines reliance on local sales taxes and stability of revenue. The findings suggest that dependence on local sales taxes do increase volatility and reduce expenditures on social services, all else being equal.     

Alternative forms of sales taxation for a developing country

In an increasing n umber of developing countries, as in virtually all of the major industrial countries, one or other form of sales taxation has taken root as an important provider of revenue, though in spite of much recent debate—much of it concerning the value added tax—no single form of sales taxation has emerged as being the most efficacious. This article does not discuss the merits of sales taxation, nor its effects or, development, but rather focuses on the question of which form of sales tax should be adopted assuming that one is to be.     

State-local sales tax,spillover, and economic activity: examining county governments in the US

The reliance on sales taxation has increased in both states and counties. This study aggregated county-level data and empirically explored the associations between state-local sales taxes and economic activity by industry types in county governments for the period of 1990–2013. The results revealed negative associations of sales tax rates with economic activity, especially in the manufacturing industry. Further, the findings provided the spatial dependence of economic activity across counties as a form of possible spillover. This study suggests that policymakers should pay attention to how the manufacturing and retail industries respond to any changes in sales tax rates for business activity.     

Challenges to Property Rate Administration in the Offinso South Municipality,Ghana

Decentralized governments in Ghana have not been able to realize optimum benefits from their property tax potentials. The paper investigates the administration of property taxation in Ghana using the Offinso South Municipality (OSM) as a study area. Questionnaires were relied on to garner data from property owners in the municipality. It observed that low coverage and collection ratios, inadequate collection modes, and negative public perceptions have worked against the administration of property tax in the OSM. The paper suggests a complete overhaul of the property rate regime in the OSM if the buoyancy of property tax revenue is to be realized. It argues that the rating authority should purge the system of perceived corruptions. It suggests a revamp of the property rate collection means in order to slump rent seeking behavior of the mobile property rate collectors.     

Tax Collection in Developing Countries – New Evidence on Semi-Autonomous Revenue Agencies (SARAs)

Abstract

Over the last two decades, semi-autonomous revenue agencies (SARAs) have become a key element of public administration reform. They are supposed to improve revenue mobilisation and stabilise state–taxpayer relations. But do SARAs really outperform conventional tax administrations? This article argues that they do. Presenting the results of a panel analysis of local tax collection in Peru between 1998 and 2011, it shows that municipalities with SARAs collect more revenue than those with conventional tax administrations. The results also indicate that local revenue is more stable in municipalities with SARAs, which is good for budget policy and planning.     

An (in)effective tax and expenditure limit (TEL): Why county governments do not utilize their maximum allotted property tax rate

Tax and expenditure limits (TELs) are restrictions placed on governments limiting their ability to collect and spend revenue. Residents support these TELs, as they desire lower tax burdens and more government efficiency; yet, residents still desire the same level of public services. Property tax rate limits, a specific type of TEL, are placed upon local governments to limit their ability to collect revenue and expand authority. Rate limits were implemented on the assumption that governments would tax at their highest maximum possible rate, but this is not always the case. This article studies why some local governments choose not to utilize their maximum allotted property tax rate. Using an open systems governance approach, a panel data analysis was conducted using data from 67 Florida counties from 2008 to 2017. Results of the analysis show that the use of special districts and the age of the residential population have significant effects on property tax rate decisions.