Investigating the impact of extended bar closing times on police stops for DUI

Researchers have often studied whether changes in the availability of alcohol impact associated problem behaviors like drunk driving. In July of 2003, the state of Minnesota approved legislation to extend by one hour the closing time for eating and social establishments that serve alcohol. This study utilized a time-series model to examine the impact of the extended closing time on the number of police stops for DUI in one jurisdiction in Minnesota. While results of the time-series indicated that there was a significant increase in the number of police stops for DUI following this legislative change, incident-specific analyses suggested that this increase might have been largely a result of increased proactive responses by local police. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

我国火灾起数的灰色拓扑预测

基于灰色拓扑预测理论方法,对我国火灾发生情况进行了分析预测。在对我国55年(1950-2004年)火灾统计资料时序分布特征分析的基础上,选取一组阈值,建立不同阈值所对应的时间序列的GM(1,1)模型群,用此模型群对未来可能出现一定阈值范围内火灾起数的年份进行了预测,并运用预测失效点非唯一性原理绘制了拓扑预测曲线。经精度检验,所建模型群的精度为一级,具有较好的可靠性和实用性。     

Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000

This paper empirically assesses the effects of socio-economic and demographic variables on violent crime in the United States. Using national-level time-series data over the period 1960–2000, an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated for overall violent crime, murder, rape and assault. The results indicate that there is no long-run relationship among the examined variables, but significant short-run relationships hold. Imprisonment growth, income inequality, alcohol consumption, and racial composition of the male youth population are shown to influence the short-run behaviour of violent crime.     

Execution publicity and homicide in Georgia

A requisite of both general deterrence and brutalization theories of capital punishment is citizen awareness of executions. Yet this dimension is frequently left unmeasured in the literature on executions and homicide. Further, the current literature utilizes nationwide data, which introduces aggregation bias. The present study deals with these issues, testing the brutalization theory with data on publicized executions in the state of Georgia. Monthly data are used in order to capture any short-term brutalization effect. The results of a multivariate time-series model find that a publicized execution is associated with an increase of 2.6 homicides, or 6.8%, in the month of the publicized execution. Publicized executions were associated with an increase of 55 homicides during the time period analyzed. The results provide no support for the deterrence, victim mobilization, and normative validation perspectives on homicide. The findings can be interpreted, however, from several different varieties of brutalization theory.     

COLLECTIVE SECURITY AND FATAL FIREARM ACCIDENTS*

This paper offers an explanation for rates of fatal firearm accidents in terms of confidence in collectively provided justice and security. It describes the collective security model and presents an analysis of time-series data from Detroit which supports it: accidental gunshot deaths varied positively with violent crime and civil disturbances and negatively with the allocation of resources to the police. Finally, it discusses some implications for research design and social policy.     

Financial development and inequality: Brazil 1985–1994

We examine the impact of financial development on earnings inequality in Brazil in the 1980s and first half of the 1990s. The evidence—based initially on time-series, and then on the relatively novel panel time-series data and analysis—shows that financial development had a significant and robust effect in reducing inequality during the period. We suggest that this is not only because the poorer can invest the acquired credit in either short or long-term productive activities, but also because those with access to financial markets can insulate themselves, via a process of financial adaptation, against recurrent poor macroeconomic performance, which is exemplified in Brazil by high rates of inflation. The main implication of the results is that a deeper and more active financial sector alleviates the high inequality seen in Brazil without the need for distortionary taxation.     

Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving the Paradox

While official crime statistics from many countries show that unemployed people have high crime rates and that communities with a lot of unemployment experience a lot of crime, this cross-sectional relationship is very often not found in time-series studies of unemployment and crime. In Australia there have been no individual-level or cross-sectional studies of unemployment and adult crime which have failed to find a positive relationship and no time-series which have supported a positive relationship. Consistent with this pattern, a time series of homicide from 1921 to 1987 in Australia reveals no significant unemployment effect. A theoretical resolution of this apparent paradox is advanced in terms of the effect of female employment on crime in a partriarchal society. Crime is posited as a function of both total unemployment and female employment. When female employment is added to the model, it has a strong positive effect on homicide, and unemployment also assumes a strong positive effect.     

The Dynamics of Capital Structure in Transition Economies

This paper uses a dynamic unrestricted capital structure model to examine the determinants of the private companies' target financial leverage and the speed of adjustment to it in two transition economies, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. We explicitly model the adjustment of companies' leverage to a target leverage, and this target leverage is itself explained by a set of factors. The panel data methodology combines cross-section and time-series information. The results indicate that the Bulgarian corporate credit markets were less supply -constrained than those of the Czech Republic during the period under investigation. Bulgarian?companies adjusted much faster to the target leverage than Czech firms. The speed of?adjustment related positively to the distance between target and observed ratio for Bulgarian companies while the relationship was neutral for Czech companies. The conservative policies of Czech banks and the exposure control were likely responsible for the slower adjustment among the larger companies while the opposite were true for Bulgarian banks and companies.     

Does one size fit all? Modelling macroeconomic linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

We construct a structural macroeconometric model for member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Fitting this model to annual and quarterly time-series data allows us to identify the channels through which macroeconomic innovations in one country impact on other countries in the union. We also discover the extent of heterogeneity across the member states in terms of the degree of similarity of macroeconomic transmission mechanisms. This is one important element in measuring the costs of union membership for each country.     

Control of drunken driving accidents in Norway: An econometric evaluation of behavior under uncertainty

This article makes use of a very simple choice-theoretic model and econometric analysis to evaluate the control of motoring accidents in Norway. The model attempts to take account of the impact of driving levels, traffic density, and road quality as well as alcohol consumption, the probability of convictions, and sanctions on the generation of accidents. Five alternative logit formulations, estimated within a simultaneous systems framework, provide insights on the impact of law enforcement on the levels of fatal and serious accidents. Results of this pooled cross-section-time-series analysis compare favorably with earlier time-series estimates of the strength of control effects.     

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with reporting violent crimes to the police

The use of generalized estimating equations and time-series methods for fitting longitudinal models in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is discussed, with reference to the relation between the reporting of a violent crime to the police and previous victimizations. Two longitudinal models are fit to NCVS data to predict the likelihood of reporting a violent crime to the police based on characteristics of the victim and the incident and based on previous victimization experiences. In both models, it is found that higher reporting rates are associated with positive results accruing from reporting previous victimization to the police.     

Policing the homeless

Research Summary Police officials across the United States are increasingly relying on place-based approaches for crime prevention. In this article, we examine the Safer Cities Initiative, a widely publicized place-based policing intervention implemented in Los Angeles's “Skid Row” that focused on crime and disorder associated with homeless encampments. Crime reduction was the goal. The police division in which the program was undertaken provides 8 years of time-series data serving as the observations for the treatment condition. Four adjacent police divisions in which the program was not undertaken provide 8 years of time-series data serving as the observations for the comparison condition. The data are analyzed using a generalized additive model. On balance, we find that this place-based intervention is associated with meaningful reductions in violent, property, and nuisance street crimes. There is no evidence of crime displacement. Policy Implications This study provides further evidence that geographically targeted police interventions can lead to significant crime prevention benefits, with no evidence that crime is simply displaced to other areas. Criminologists and the media have given the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) little credit for major reductions in crime that have occurred during the past 5 years following a number of major policy reforms. We suggest that researchers should look more closely at the targeted interventions the LAPD has undertaken for evidence-based examples of effective policing. Importantly, this work suggests that crime associated with homeless encampments can be meaningfully reduced with targeted police actions. However, law enforcement actions do not address the roots of homelessness nor most of its consequences. Getting tough on the homeless should not be confused with policies or programs that respond fundamentally to the social and personal problems that homelessness presents.     

“Shaping history” or “Riding the wave”?: President Bush's influence on the public opinion of terrorism, homeland security, & crime

The theory of presidential influence over public opinion is used to predict the impact of presidential rhetoric on the public's concern for terrorism, homeland security, and crime as the “most important problems facing the country.” Using OLS time-series regression, the authors find consistent results that President Bush influenced public opinion in relation to terrorism, homeland security and crime, despite the overwhelming events of September 11th and its impact. The article concludes by discussing the president's ability to shape events and how some events shape the presidency.     

The deterrent effect of executions: A meta-analysis thirty years after Ehrlich

In 1975, Ehrlich published a seminal paper in American Economic Review which argued that executions prevent murders in America. Subsequent empirical studies varied in their methodology and the time-period/region/country covered, and therefore it is difficult to draw a clear conclusion about the deterrent effect of executions. This article applies a meta-analysis to combine the results from refereed studies in order to summarize objectively the findings. The overall results of the meta-analysis supported the deterrent effect of executions, but the evidence for a deterrent effect depended on the type of study carried out (time-series and panel data versus cross-sectional data and the effects of publicity).     

A systematic analysis of diversion: Net widening and beyond

This analysis focuses on the operation of a juvenile diversion program in a large metropolitan area. In particular, the impact of the program on referrals made by the police to the juvenile court is examined. Consistent with most studies of diversion, a significant amount of net widening was found to occur following the introduction of the program. A time-series design using a four-year-preprogram and four-year-program period was employed to examine the trends in processing over time. Referrals for all categories of offenses rose significantly during the program years. The implications of these results are discussed in light of both police commitment to the goals of diversion and the legal safeguards in juvenile processing.     

Property Rights and Rural Development in China's Transitional Economy

This paper undertakes an empirical examination of the impact of the property rights system on agricultural growth in China's rural development. A model is developed, considering a conditional convergence hypothesis and control variables that capture the effect of property rights system, such as sown area, entrepreneurship and secondary school enrollment. Empirical testing is conducted under the error components method, using pooled cross-section (prefecture) and time-series data for the Shandong, Henan and Sichuan provinces. The empirical findings for the period 1994–2000 indicate that the initially less-developed prefectures tend to catch up with the initially more-developed prefectures through a more rapid growth rate in the Shandong, Henan and Sichuan provinces. The control variable of sown area affects agricultural growth in rural areas, whilst the effect of entrepreneurship on rural development is controversial. Small-scale household farming has limited the role of technological innovation in Chinese agricultural growth, thus, secondary school enrolment is less important for agricultural growth.     

Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

Systemwide effects of Medicaid retrospective drug utilization review programs

Aggregate pooled cross-sectional and time-series annual state data for 1985 to 1992 were used to estimate the systemwide effects of retrospective drug utilization review programs (Retro-DUR) on Medicaid drug and nondrug outcomes. The results provide evidence that these programs produce significant cost savings in the drug budget without spillover effects (positive or negative) in other nondrug budgets within the Medicaid system. We also examine the influence of restricted formularies in this post-Retro-DUR era on drug and nondrug budgets in the Medicaid system; we find significant cost savings in the former but positive spillover effects in the latter.     

Gender convergence in crime: Evidence from Canadian adult offense charge data

This study provided some new empirical evidence relating to the hypothesis that there was convergence between certain male and female offenses over time. Using time-series data for adults charged with offenses in Canada over the period 1983 to 2000, several formal statistical tests of this convergence hypothesis were conducted. This study allowed for the particular characteristics of the data, such as various types of structural breaks and changes over time in the process that generated the data. A number of new tests that had not previously been applied to this problem were employed, and the results that were obtained provided the first strong evidence in favor of gender-convergence for a range of offenses in Canada.     

THE IMPACT OF REAPPORTIONMENT ON POLICY EXPENDITURES: A Quasi-Experimental Time-Series Analysis

While there is little question that court-ordered reapportionment has changed the composition of state legislative personnel, it is still unclear whether reapportionment has had any significant impact on public policies. Evidence to date has been both contradictory and methodologically suspect. Using time-series regression in a quasi-experimental design, we examine the effects of reapportionment on expenditures in three policy areas within eight states—four control (states well apportioned before 1964) and four experimental (states egregiously malapportioned before 1964). Contrary to recent time-series analyses on this topic, we find that the implementation of the "one man, one vote" ruling had little significant effect on the distribution of state expenditures believed beneficial to urban interests.