Attacks on Civilians in Civil War: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments

Previous research has indicated that democracy decreases the risk of armed conflict, while increasing the likelihood of terrorist attacks, but we know little about the effect of democracy on violence against civilians in ongoing civil conflicts. This study seeks to fill this empirical gap in the research on democracy and political violence, by examining all rebel groups involved in an armed conflict 1989–2004. Using different measures of democracy, the results demonstrate that rebels target more civilians when facing a democratic (or semi-democratic) government. Democracies are perceived as particularly vulnerable to attacks on the population, since civilians can hold the government accountable for failures to provide security, and this provides incentives for rebels to target civilians. At the same time, the openness of democratic societies provides opportunities for carrying out violent attacks. Thus, the strength of democracy—its accountability and openness—can become an Achilles heel during an internal armed conflict.     

War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality

Recent studies have found significant excess mortality in women during and immediately after armed conflicts. This article directly assesses one of the most likely explanations, namely that war negatively affects reproductive health. Armed conflicts may contribute to sustain high fertility levels through increased social insecurity, loss of reproductive health services, and lower female education. Further, war's deteriorating impact on health infrastructure is expected to increase the relative risk that women die from complications associated with pregnancy and childbirth. These claims are tested in a global time-series cross-national study from 1970 through 2005. Three major findings are reported. First, armed conflicts are associated with higher overall fertility in low-income countries only. Second, maternal mortality rates are elevated, albeit moderately, in conflict countries. Third, conflicts in neighboring countries are associated with lower maternal mortality, possibly indicating that health interventions among refugee and host populations are relatively successful. While addressing one of the least successful UN Millennium Development Goals, this study also responds to the UN Security Council Resolution 1325, in which Article 16 specifically calls for the “Secretary-General to carry out a study on the impact of armed conflict on women and girls.”     

Breaking the cycle of violence: doing development in situations of conflict

During the 1980s, armed conflict devastated an increasing number of the world's poorest countries. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) engaged in relief and development were hard-pressed to determine their most effective response to situations where normal development became meaningless, and yet short-term relief programmes failed to deal with ‘permanent emergencies?s. This article describes the nature of these conflicts, their impact on the poor, and the evolution of NGO programmes in response. It explains why some NGOs have attempted to do development in the face of on-going violence, sometimes employing risky strategies and desperate measures. It argues the need for NGOs to play a part in building a civil society which can help to break the cycle of violence.     

Influencing Negotiation Willingness in the Middle East: The Potential Contributions of Private Actors

Numerous efforts to solve the Israeli–Palestinian conflict through diplomacy have taken place over the last four decades. To shed light on this dilemma in this article, the role that private actors and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) can play to enhance the negotiation willingness of nonstate armed groups was examined. It was argued that the NGOs in particular could play key roles in promoting the negotiation willingness of nonstate actors and also in influencing their internal dynamics and increasing their cohesion. Specifically, we examine two pairs of efforts to resolve the conflict in Israel and Palestine: the “Road Map” and the track two Geneva Initiative of 2003, and the Olmert Peace Plan and Jimmy Carter's visit to the Middle East in 2008. In the first pair, NGO efforts yielded unexpected results. The Palestinians were ready to compromise even though the deal offered by the Israelis did not seem very generous. In the second pair, the reaction of the Palestinians to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's generous peace offer seemed especially puzzling, illustrating, the internal dynamics between the Palestinian factions. Negotiation willingness was closely related to cohesion, and that cohesion plays an important role in conflict negotiations. President Jimmy Carter's efforts in 2008 to enhance cohesion among the Palestinians illustrated the potential that NGOs have to complement official negotiations.     

International NGOs and the challenge of modernity

The forces associated with economic globalisation and the apparent supremacy of market forces have unleashed a range of political and social processes that have served, and were indeed designed, to enrich and empower the few at the expense of the majority. These include phenomena such as the rise in armed conflict, threats to food security, the loss of livelihoods and traditional ways of life of millions of people worldwide, the commodification of social provision, assaults on national sovereignty, and the privatisation of citizenship. However, the author argues, the most significant impact of globalisation is the 'localisation' of social and political struggle, and the emergence of new forms of international solidarity. Many NGOs have too readily succumbed to the view that globalisation in its present form is inevitable and irreversible, and have accommodated to it by trading their essential values for technical professionalism, often imported from the private sector. However, if NGOs are to assume their place as part of a transformational movement for social justice, they must rediscover and foster the values of citizen participation and develop a genuine respect for diversity.     

Perspectives on Ethno-National Conflict Among Kurdish Families With Members in the PKK

This article reports the findings of an ethnographic study of families with members involved in the armed struggle for Kurdish nationalism led by the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Based on in-depth, semi-structured interviews and observations with a theoretical sample of six families in the area of Yüksekova, detailed discussions were held with twelve members of families with children, partners, or siblings involved in the conflict. Ethno-national exceptionalism plays a significant role in determining the motivations of political violence among groups, but with the additional background of the perceptions and realities of systematic racialization, de-territorialization, disenfranchisement, and cultural exclusion that affect certain Kurdish groups. The findings in this article offer critical sociological and anthropological accounts of the localized drivers of ethno-nationalism, and the motivations for and the experiences of conflict among families with members involved in the armed conflict and the “Kurdish question” in Turkey.     

核威慑效应的生成及印巴核威慑的稳定性

核威慑理论伴随着冷战的展开而逐渐丰富,对稳定核威慑需具备的条件,学者们的论述基本趋向于大致相同的结论,然而在适用上却也有不同的解释。自1998年南亚的印、巴进行公开核试验以来,两国核竞赛有增无减,使南亚成为核关注的焦点。印巴两国虽然经历了几次紧张的对峙和冲突,但最终未走向战争,显然核威慑对抑止冲突升级发挥了重要作用,虽然南亚核威慑因技术条件的有限性使其相对脆弱,但在彼此的核学习和相互角逐过程中,两国的威慑会渐趋稳定。     

Arms Acquisition Patterns and the Dynamics of Armed Conflict: Lessons from the Niger Delta

Arms acquisition is a crucial venture for armed insurgency groups for carrying out their militant activities. I argue that the specific manner in which these groups obtain weapons may have important consequences for the dynamics of violent intrastate conflict. While most previous studies of the relationship between arms acquisition and armed conflict have focused solely on the impact of arms availability, in this article I analyze the impact of two specific aspects of arms acquisition patterns—the methods and the degree of leadership control—on the dynamics and nature of armed conflict in a qualitative case study of the armed conflict in the Niger Delta (Nigeria) between 1995 and 2005. I conclude that the specific arms acquisition method and the degree of leadership control over this process have strongly affected the dynamics of the conflict.     

‘Dancing with the prince’: Ngo's survival strategics in the Afghan conflict

Afghan NGOs have been a major provider of humanitarian aid throughout the Afghan conflict. They remained operational during this period by 'dancing' with and between the various parties to the conflict, their survival contingent on their ability to build ad hoc patterns of alliance and cooperation. This article explores the nature of 'the dance' between NGOs, the warring parties, and the NGOs' constituencies. It asks whether 'dancing with the prince' represents an accommodation with violence or is a necessary compromise which will ultimately contribute to resolving the conflict. It concludes by drawing out key lessons for donors who support indigenous NGOs operating in complex political emergencies.     

Democratic transition and social spending: the case of Pakistan in the 1990s

The article assesses the social consequences of the democratic transition that began in Pakistan in 1988 and ended in 1999 by analysing public spending for health and education and changes in human development indicators. Available information indicates that the return to democracy did not lead to greater spending in these two sectors. It is argued that the key internal factors that hampered government commitment to social welfare were the pre-eminence among elected representatives of social groups unwilling to invest in the human capital of the majority and the dominance of the armed forces in the country's power politics.     

Matching services with local preferences: managing primary education services in a rural district of India

India's poorest households have particularly little access to education. Urgent reforms are therefore needed to improve the universal availability of quality basic services and universal access to those services. At least 32 million children in India are estimated to not be enrolled and attending school. These children must be brought into schools in order to meet the goal of Universal Elementary Education (UEE). Widespread support exists for the decentralization of public services due to the equity and efficiency benefits associated with it. In particular, decentralization is seen to facilitate the matching of services with local preferences, increasing the chances of meeting policy goals. This approach is explored in the context of research conducted in a village of Raichur district, where poor households' preferences with regard to school timing are analyzed. Sections consider the equity and efficiency merits of decentralization, the agenda for improving education service delivery in India, users' relationship to the education system in Raichur district, how preferences are revealed, whose preferences are important in the conflict between local and policy perspectives, preference heterogeneity in the village context, and whether aspects of education services can be selectively decentralized.     

Why terrorists target children: Outbidding,desperation, and extremism in the Peshawar and Beslan school massacres

ABSTRACT

Why do terrorists engage in behavior that is extreme even by their own admission—killing children? This behavior poses a major puzzle to our understanding of terrorism, but it has been surprisingly underexplored. This article addresses the question of why terrorists intentionally target children with a comparative study of the two deadliest attacks in which children were deliberately targeted by a militant organization: the Peshawar (2014) and Beslan (2004) school massacres. The article identifies two factors that increase the likelihood that a terrorist group will target children. The first is the presence of internal rifts within an already highly violent organization. This is likely to trigger outbidding and, thus, result in more brutal attacks. The second is existentially threatening external pressure, which seriously weakens the group and, thus, leads it to select soft and shocking targets, such as schools. The findings are based on evidence drawn from primary and secondary sources, including interviews conducted in Peshawar and Islamabad, Pakistan, and Moscow, Russia.     

Children of war in the Philippines

Political armed conflict has important ramifications in the lives of children as individuals and on social development more generally. However, the emotional problems faced by children during and after war or political violence are rarely considered in development literature and practice. This article recounts the experience of working with severely traumatised children in the Philippines, using the methods of Creative Process Therapy. The report shows how a Western therapeutic model was successfully modified for application in a Filipino children's rehabilitation centre, and suggests that this experience offers possibilities for appropriate replication in other settings.     

Politics and Threat Perception: Explaining Pakistani Military Strategy on the North West Frontier

Abstract

Analysts and policymakers agree that the Pakistani military has engaged in selective repression of and collusion with armed groups. Yet beyond this general observation, fine-grained theory and evidence do not exist to systematically explain patterns of military strategy across groups and over time. This paper provides a theoretical framework for explaining regime perceptions of armed groups and the strategies state security managers pursue toward different types of groups. It then probes this framework using a combination of new medium-N data on military offensives, peace deals, and state–group alliances in Pakistan’s North West and four comparative case studies from North and South Waziristan. We argue that the Pakistani military—the key state institution in this context—has assigned armed groups to different political roles reflecting both their ideological affinity with the military and the operational benefits they can provide to the army. This mixture of instrumental and ideological motivations has created a complex blend of regime threat perceptions and state–group interactions across space and time. A clearer understanding of how the military views Pakistan’s armed political landscape can inform policy debates about the nature of Pakistani counterinsurgency, as well as broader theoretical debates about order and violence.     

Fragmentation,Conflict, and Competition: Islamist Anti-civilian Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

In spite of the shared high profile of recent Islamist attacks on civilians in sub-Saharan Africa, patterns of anti-civilian violence differ across and within violent Islamist groups, and the countries in which they are active. This research seeks to explain this variation by situating Islamist violence within the sub-national spaces in which such groups operate, and the wider conflict environment in which they choose to use, or limit the use of, anti-civilian violence. Drawing on data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset, the research finds that violent Islamist groups are more likely to target civilians where they are the most active conflict agent, even when other conflict agents are active in the same spaces; but less likely to do so when they are relatively weak and in competition with other non-state armed groups. Anti-civilian violence is thus deployed strategically by violent Islamist groups, while its function as a signalling or retributive policing tool depends on the relative strength of groups in relation to actors in the wider conflict arena.     

Eyes wide shut: persistent conflict and liberal peace-building in Nepal and Sri Lanka

The decisive, albeit different, endings of armed conflict in Sri Lanka and Nepal and subsequent post-war developments challenge key assumptions about conflict that have informed post-Cold War international efforts to produce peace in such conflict zones. International intervention—including in Sri Lanka and Nepal—characterises armed conflict as sustained by specific political economies that can only be stably resolved by establishing liberal democracy and market economics. This paper examines liberal peace engagement in Sri Lanka and Nepal to challenge a crucial assumption of the persistent conflict thesis, namely the separation between political contestation and armed conflict. It argues that the divergent post-conflict outcomes of continuing ethnic polarisation in Sri Lanka and constitutional reform in Nepal reveal strong continuities in the dynamics of pre-war, war and post-war politics. This continuity challenges the presumed separation of politics and violence that drove international engagement to produce liberal peace and suggests that such engagement, far from encouraging reform, may have (inadvertently) sustained conflict in both cases.     

NGOs as development partners to the corporates: Child football stitchers in Pakistan

Interest in partnerships between international NGOs and the corporate sector is growing as both sectors see their roles changing in response to increasing consumer awareness about social, environmental, and human rights issues. This article presents the case of the partnership between the sports goods industry, The Save the Children Fund (SCF), and various international and local organisations in the district of Sialkot in Pakistan. The author uses this case in order to discuss the important elements of a cross-sectoral partnership, the considerations for the various parties that enter into such partnerships, and the implications of these partnerships with the corporate sector for the future of NGOs and their vision of development.     

The Rule of Law and the UN Peacebuilding Commission: a social development approach

There is a danger that the Rule of Law Assistance Unit of the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission will employ the same dominant but problematic paradigm that the international development community has pursued across the globe. This top-down, state-centred paradigm, sometimes known as ‘rule of law orthodoxy’, stands in contrast to an alternative set of strategies: legal empowerment. Legal empowerment involves the use of legal services, legal capacity-building and legal reform by and for disadvantaged populations, often in combination with other development activities, to increase their freedom, improve governance and alleviate poverty. It is typically carried out by domestic and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs), but also by governments and official aid agencies. This alternative approach focuses directly on the disadvantaged and integration with other development activities, which means it often operates under the de facto rubric of social development. Legal empowerment strategies vary among countries and NGOs. But their impact includes reforming gender-biased, non-state justice systems in Bangladesh; ameliorating the legal system's corruption in post-conflict Sierra Leone; keeping the human rights flame burning in post-conflict Cambodia; advancing natural resources protection and indigenous peoples' rights in Ecuador; and strengthening agrarian reform in the Philippines. Addressing such priorities can help alleviate poverty, ameliorate conflict and prevent chaos or repression from dominating the disadvantaged, particularly in conflict or post-conflict societies.     

Eviction and homelessness: the impact on African children

More than 80 million African children lack access to healthy shelter, and 16 million of these children are living on the streets. This phenomenon of street children represents massive social failure as well as a violation of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. Urbanization--and the attendant processes of industrial expansion, land speculation, and "beautification"--has created a cycle of poverty, evictions, family disruption, and unwanted and abandoned children. In African cities, at least 60% of the population lives in informal, underserviced, and frequently illegal slums and squatter settlements in households generally headed by a single mother. Increasingly, eviction is being used as a strategy for driving the poor out of urban areas where they have come to seek work. Mothers who are themselves illiterate, malnourished, and constantly facing the threat of eviction are unable to meet their children's basic security needs. Moreover, violent evictions subvert children's educational and health status, cause psychological trauma and the loss of a sense of belonging, and exacerbate the household's precarious economic status. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have been successful in preventing some evictions and have established programs for the care of street children. Recommended is improved coordination between NGOs and local and national governments, as exemplified by the urban child welfare task force established by the Kenyan Government. Above all, however, NGOs need to develop strategies for dealing more effectively with mass urban poverty and providing the necessary infrastructure to improve the lives of slum residents.     

Acts of Truth Telling and Testimony in the Conceptualisation of Reparations in Post-conflict Peru

ABSTRACT

The internal armed conflict of Peru (1980–2000), a struggle which saw the rise of various guerrilla movements, notably Shining Path, against the State, left an estimated 69,280 fatalities and countless survivors of human rights violations. Among the victims, particularly toward the end of the conflict, were over 300,000 indigenous, predominantly illiterate, women in impoverished rural communities who had been targeted by State officials and forced into undergoing sterilisation surgeries. To date, no reparation has been enacted in response. This article reviews acts of truth telling, in particular the use of oral testimony within the project of Quipu, of the victims of these enforced sterilisations, as a nonviolent method of historical justice. The article finds that calls for violent social justice (that is, the internal armed conflict) have not protected the rights of the most vulnerable (among them, indigenous women), though arms may have been taken up in an attempt to do so, but have in fact increased the forms of violence within the armed conflict. By contrast, testimony as nonviolent action protects victims’ right to the truth and their right to resist, as it turns against violent histories and toward possible reparation.