Sri Lanka’s Long Constitutional Moment

Constitutional change in Sri Lanka has been a vexed issue and one mired in party politics for many years now. Particularly intractable difficulties have surfaced over whether the country should jettison the semi-presidential form of government, introduced in 1978, in favour of a Westminster model under which the prime minister would enjoy greater powers. The recent presidential and parliamentary elections, which saw a decisive shift in the popular mood, have brought the debate over constitutional reform into sharp focus and have already led to a number of important initiatives by the new government headed by President Maithripala Sirisena. This article assesses the implications of those initiatives and examines the key challenges that remain to be addressed. It argues that the ‘constitutional moment’ created by the combined outcome of the two recent elections has the potential for further, far-reaching reform.     

What Money Can’t Buy: The Security Externalities of Chinese Economic Statecraft in Post-War Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT

China’s growing trade, investment, and aid links are commonly believed to constitute a potent instrument of statecraft, generating important security externalities. Yet there is insufficient research tracing the precise mechanisms linking economic relationships between a “sender” and “target” state to actual influence in the security domain. We offer three contributions. First, we map out the theoretical mechanisms of influence in a sender–target relationship. Second, we empirically investigate these mechanisms through a case study of China’s economic influence in Sri Lanka since 2009. Third, we use our findings to generate new insights on the mechanisms of influence in the economic statecraft literature and the dynamics of great-power competition in South Asia. Beijing’s ability to convert its considerable economic resources into strategic influence in Sri Lanka is currently hampered by the poor planning and implementation of infrastructure projects, domestic politics, and Sri Lanka’s relationship with India, a regional competitor and rising power.     

Bringing back the issues: Nigeria’s Afrocentric policy under President Olusegun Obasanjo

This article analyses President Obasanjo’s pursuit of Nigeria’s Afrocentric policy. While the general impression has been that Nigeria’s Afrocentric policy succeeded under the civilian administration of Obasanjo, this study contends that the record of performance is mixed. The administration’s diplomatic engagements in Africa produced a number of key upturns such as the deepening of democracy, peace and stability, and development through the framework of NEPAD. On the other hand, there were also major diplomatic setbacks. The study provides explanations for the mixed outcomes to draw important lessons that could aid the design of the policy in the post-Obasanjo era.     

India’s Experience with Remittances: a Critical Analysis

India has been the highest recipient of workers’ remittances for the past several years. Remittances have had a multiplier effect on the Indian economy and have played a crucial role in the economies of several Indian states like Kerala, Goa, Punjab and Gujarat. However, the absence of a coherent policy framework on dealing with these remittances has not only impeded their optimum utilisation but also led to certain negative impacts in India. If harnessed productively, through institutional backing, remittances can actually become viable instruments for creating alternative livelihoods and sustainable development in the rural areas of the country.     

The target strikes back: explaining countersanctions and Russia’s strategy of differentiated retaliation

This article analyzes Russia’s retaliatory food embargo, explaining why the Russian government banned some imports from the West but refrained from banning a range of equally plausible others. I argue that Moscow was following a strategy of differentiated retaliation when selecting which imports to embargo. The countersanctions were not designed to mete out equal punishment on all members of the sanctioning coalition. Rather, Russia purposefully crafted the policy to inflict greater economic damage on some states than others. Utilizing an original data-set on all agricultural and food products that Russia imports, I demonstrate that, ceteris paribus, imports of sizeable commercial value to countries the Kremlin has long viewed as the mainstays of anti-Russian policies were far more likely to have been banned. In contrast, the evidence shows that Moscow stayed its hand in dealing with Europe’s major powers. This analysis both illuminates the policy objectives being pursued by a leading actor in world politics, as well as lays the groundwork for theoretically understanding the geostrategic, political, and economic drivers of countersanctions.     

The paradox of petrodollar development: Chad’s military diplomacy in regional and global security

This paper examines the Chadian government’s overwhelming preoccupation with state security, rather than individual security, as evidenced by its huge expenditure on arms rather than on poverty-alleviating development projects following the unprecedented influx of petrodollars in the years since production began in 2003. This overemphasis on state security demonstrates a mismatch between the availability of natural resource wealth and ongoing low levels of socioeconomic development in Chad. The country has instead used its enormous oil wealth to boost its standing in the turbulent Central African and Sahelian regions where terrorism is rife. The country’s international diplomacy, which consists of deploying its well-equipped military in international peacekeeping missions and in the fight against terrorism, is a strategy of achieving international recognition while simultaneously diverting the international community’s attention from the country’s democracy deficit and poor human rights record. Internally, authoritarianism and political instability are accompanied by conflict, poverty and underdevelopment, which in turn perpetuate the challenges facing the country.     

Beijing’s Quest for Stability in its Neighborhood: China’s Relations with Russia in Central Asia

Using the English school arguments that inter-state regulation ameliorates the consequences of the power politics of international anarchy, I analyze to what extent China pursues a strategic partnership with Russia in Central Asia. I investigate if China has compatible policies with Russia on the use of force, on international legitimacy, and on institutional frameworks for security management. As China is increasingly asserting its security, economic, and institutional interests in Central Asia, similarities and differences have become apparent in relations with Russia. Increased mutual concern for continued regional stability has encouraged Beijing and Moscow to coordinate their policies across a wide range of issue areas. Stability allows them to focus attention and resources on each of their different geostrategic priorities.     

Taiwan’s Sub-national Government Relations with Japan: Post-1979 Developments

In 1972 the Japanese government ended its diplomatic recognition of the Republic of China. And yet it did not. In the aftermath of that decision, colonial legacy ties between Taiwan and Japan were drawn upon to create a new form of relationship, with ties that were official in all but name. Taiwanese cities and counties were also encouraged to develop formal ties with their Japanese counterparts. These sub-national ties are a critical – but little researched – component of the enduring bilateral relationship between these two countries. This article – based on extensive fieldwork in both countries – is an initial effort in understanding how these ties have developed and function, and how they support bilateral relations between Taiwan and Japan. Drawing on additional fieldwork in China, this article also considers what formal limitations exist on the para-diplomatic relations between these countries.     

Japan’s Shifting Military Priorities: Counterbalancing China’s Rise

This article analyzes the most recent phase of Japan’s security policy reform, focusing on its shifting priorities towards the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Japan–US alliance since mid-2010. From a realist perspective, it argues that these shifting military priorities first and foremost represent a traditional counterbalancing response to China’s rise. Conforming to the logic inherent in balance of threat theory, it moreover argues that this balancing behavior is explained by a confluence of two primary factors, namely Japanese perceptions of aggressive Chinese behavior in the maritime domain and concerns relating to the changing distribution of capabilities in China’s favor.     

Singapore’s 2015 General Election: Explaining PAP’s Resounding Win

Abstract

While Singapore’s 15th general election came about as expected, the ensuing results did not. In view of the opposition’s performance in the 2011 general election and the general sense that the ruling party had done well despite its performance being anything but sterling, the results were somewhat shocking. Even the leaders of the ruling party were caught by surprise at the party’s ability to garner 70% of the valid votes, 10% more than in the previous election. While many factors played a role, it was the opposition parties that lost the election rather than the ruling party that won it. Most of the opposition parties were rejected by the voters on grounds of not being worthy of support. The leading opposition party, the Workers’ Party, also suffered as many voters feared that it might perform too well to the detriment of the ruling party. In the end, the 2015 general elections strengthened the one-party-dominant state in Singapore and the quest for greater political representation was placed on the back burner.     

Introduction: Understanding Thailand’s Politics

ABSTRACT

Thailand’s politics from the mid-2000s has seen considerable conflict and contestation, with seven prime ministers, two military coups, and scores of deaths from political violence. This article, as well as introducing the eight articles in the Special Issue, examines various aspects of this tumultuous period and the authoritarian turn in Thai politics. It does this by examining some of the theoretical and conceptual analysis of Thailand's politics and critiquing the basic assumptions underlying the modernisation and hybrid regimes perspectives that have tended to dominate debates on democratisation. While the concepts of bureaucratic polity and network monarchy shed light on important political actors in Thailand, they have not grappled with the persistence of authoritarianism. In theoretical terms, the article suggests that it is necessary to understand historically specific capitalist development as well as the social underpinnings that establish authoritarian trajectories and reinforce the tenacity of authoritarianism.     

The EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership and global environmental governance: Towards effective multilateralism after Copenhagen?

ABSTRACT

This paper uses an analytical framework drawn from organisational studies to unpack and evaluate climate change relations under the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership. The article finds that, while the EU and South Africa share a common purpose and high-level climate goals, many of the formal organisational structures set up under the partnership to tackle climate change and the environment are weak and have fallen into disuse. At the same time several factors outside of the strategic partnership, such as South Africa's hosting of the Durban climate change meeting, have played a significant role in promoting climate cooperation between the two partners. Therefore, while the strategic partnership creates an additional opportunity for climate cooperation, it is by no means the only or even the most important instrument in the EU's foreign policy tool box for negotiation and dialogue.     

China’s Surging Energy Demand: Trigger for Conflict or Cooperation with Japan?

This article revisits a conventional interpretation of Sino-Japanese energy relations from geopolitical and zero-sum viewpoints. Contemporary Sino-Japanese disputes over the East China Sea and their scramble over a crude-oil pipeline from Russia have drawn global attention to the intensification of the rivalry between the two giant energy consumers. Beijing and Tokyo, however, have gradually found common interests resulting from business opportunities, environmental countermeasures, etc. Russia’s failure in driving a wedge between China and Japan, and the United States’ proactive engagement in Asia-Pacific energy issues, appear to provide new opportunities in which the East Asian powers’ energy rivalry can be reduced.