Why Political Science Needs History

This paper examines the changing relationship between the study of history and the study of political science. It reviews the tensions which produced a divorce between the two subjects, particularly in the United States when behavioural political science was dominant. It then examines five areas in which history has enriched the study of politics: as a source of material; as a demonstration of the links between the present and the past; as a body of knowledge to test theories; as a means of analysing political concepts and as a source of lessons. It concludes that the links between the two subjects today are strong, but that the contribution of history is more as a body of knowledge than as a set of distinctive methods.     

Why Political Science Needs Political Theory

Normative political theory and empirical social science have a reciprocal relationship. This thesis is illustrated by taking up two topics: one is social exclusion; the other is ethnicity and discrimination.     

Introducing Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT)

Abstract

We introduce the latest member of the intelligence family. Joining IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT and others is ‘SOCMINT’ – social media intelligence. In an age of ubiquitous social media it is the responsibility of the security community to admit SOCMINT into the national intelligence framework, but only when two important tests are passed. First, that it rests on solid methodological bedrock of collection, evidence, verification, understanding and application. Second, that the moral hazard it entails can be legitimately managed. This article offers a framework for how this can be done.     

Why Do Partisan Media Polarize Viewers?

The recent increase in partisan media has generated interest in whether such outlets polarize viewers. I draw on theories of motivated reasoning to explain why partisan media polarize viewers, why these programs affect some viewers much more strongly than others, and how long these effects endure. Using a series of original experiments, I find strong support for my theoretical expectations, including the argument that these effects can still be detected several days postexposure. My results demonstrate that partisan media polarize the electorate by taking relatively extreme citizens and making them even more extreme. Though only a narrow segment of the public watches partisan media programs, partisan media's effects extend much more broadly throughout the political arena.     

Missing the Wake-up Call: Why Intelligence Failures Rarely Inspire Improved Performance

After major intelligence failures it is often asked why intelligence and security officials failed to heed the many ‘wake-up calls’ that had been provided by earlier failures and surprises. This article addresses this question by examining intelligence failures as ‘focusing events’, which is a concept used in the literature on government policy making to explain how disasters and crises can stimulate policy change and help organizations and decision-makers learn. It argues that in order for an intelligence failure such as a major terrorist attack to inspire improved intelligence performance – to be a true wake-up call – that failure must not only act as a focusing event to bring more attention to the threat, but it must also lead to increased intelligence collection and greater receptivity toward intelligence on the part of decision-makers.     

Enabling Middle Managers as Change Agents: Why Organisational Support Needs to Change

Change efforts frequently fail to achieve their desired outcome with failure often attributed to employee resistance to change. Literature on resistance indicates it can emerge from ineffective change management. This article argues that change management could be improved through middle managers actively undertaking a change intermediary role, thereby enabling employees to make sense of, and reframe, the change. Qualitative data is used to explore the extent to which middle managers had the capacity and support necessary to effectively implement change. The article concludes by proposing that managers who are actively engaged change agents, who frame and make sense of the change with employees, can reduce resistance. However, for this to be realised, organisations need to actively support the systematic development of middle management change management capabilities.     

Jones' Paradigm: The How,Why, and Wherefore of Scientific Intelligence

Scientific intelligence was coined during World War II, yet despite its age and relative importance it has not received the attention it should have. This is surprising given the recent and growing interest in WMD programmes. This article sets out the main components of scientific intelligence, seeking to explore how scientific intelligence has been defined, how it operates, and contemplates the key issues involved. In doing so it aims to set an agenda for future research into this crucial area.     

Policy Lessons from Iraq on Managing Uncertainty in Intelligence Assessment: Why the Strategic/Tactical Distinction Matters

This paper focuses on how pre-existing policy priorities and goals among policy elites in the US, UK, and Australia encouraged the blurring of strategic and tactical intelligence assessment as a mechanism for legitimising the Iraq invasion. Through the selective use and interpretation of sometimes vague or unsubstantiated tactical and technical intelligence and the many uncertainties it contained, proponents of the war were able to undermine existing strategic assessments on Iraq by introducing a range of possible, but largely unsubstantiated, threat scenarios as justification for military action. The paper argues that in so far as intelligence reforms are needed, they should be focused primarily on the interface between analysis and policy making, and the issue of how policy makers interpret and understand the uncertainties that intelligence assessments necessarily contain.     

The Quango Conundrum Revisited—Why the Government Still Needs a More Coherent Approach to Arm's‐Length Bodies

There has been substantial reform of public bodies since the Coalition government was formed in 2010. But although numbers have been reduced, there has been no attempt to address the confused landscape—indeed, departments have interpreted criteria for what should be put at arm's length in different ways, introducing further complexity. A clearer link between function and form is needed. This would help address some of the blurred lines over accountability that we have seen in the recent rows over Ofsted and the Environment Agency.     

人工智能时代的社交媒体与灾害治理——兼论国际案例

灾害治理正迈向人工智能新时代,人类智能、机器智能与人工智能是灾害信息处理的三个发展阶段,人工智能时代的社交媒体与灾害治理研究视角主要有"人工智能有效论""灾害响应新系统论""智能提取信息论""智能检查监控论""辅助决策支持论"等,这一理论模型分为技术、开源、分类、位置与数据等五个基本维度。人工智能机器学习能自动从社交媒体大数据中提取有用信息,同时能有效识别灾民、估计其实际位置及评估灾后讨论主题等。人工智能还可以有效处理偏远地区社交媒体灾害信息,同时具有准确解释离线社区灾害信息能力,为不同群体在偏远虚拟社区提供灾害学习和决策平台。虽然人工智能也可能具有关键字错误搜索、测试与评估等潜在风险,尤其可能忽视弱势群体,但毋庸置疑,它正促使灾害治理经历一系列创新活动,为其变革提供了重要动力。