Connecting Intelligence and Theory: Intelligence Liaison and International Relations

Intelligence liaison increased exponentially during the so-called ‘War on Terror’. Today it continues as the most significant dimension of intelligence, including impacting on accountability and oversight considerations. Nevertheless, the intelligence liaison phenomenon remains largely under-studied and substantially under-theorized. In this article, preliminary suggestions are offered concerning how this dearth of theory can be addressed. Firstly, the relevance of international relations theory and other bodies of theory, together with significant approaches concerning how international relations – extending to how intelligence and intelligence-related phenomena (such as, in this article, intelligence co-operation) – can be studied, are explored. These theories, and equally, approaches, are arguably most appropriate when deployed in an arrangement of ‘complex co-existence plurality’ across the different interrelated levels of experience and analysis, and they offer more effective explanations when intelligence liaison is disaggregated into at least eight systemic attributes or variables. More broadly, the suggestion that international relations theory, and indeed theory generally, is ‘irrelevant’ to intelligence studies is simultaneously challenged.     

Explaining Privatization: Notes Towards a Predictive Theory

This article starts from the assumption that some of the theoretical work used to explain welfare-state expansion can be used 'in reverse' to explain privatization, here seen as welfare state contraction, i.e., the transfer from the public to the private sector of the responsibility for certain activities involved in welfare provision. To this end, valiants of the 'power resources' approach are examined. Finding that the 'labour movement' thesis does not have a strong predictive value, I then discuss the 'game theoretical' variant of the 'power resources' approach. Its usefulness for predicting privatization patterns seems limited because of the reductionism built into it. Following the neo-Institutionalists' argument that actor preferences and strategies both reflect and form institutional arrangements of the welfare state, some institutional typologies are developed which are relevant to the course and patterns of privatization. An ideal-type dichotomy between 'pluralist' and 'corporatist' institutions is discussed, in connection with a further delineation of decision-making, financing, and implementing structures. In conclusion, an effort is made to combine actor-oriented and institutional approaches to formulate some preliminary predictions about when and where certain patterns of privatization will occur.     

Intelligence Analysis

American intelligence analysts have been severely criticized for failing to anticipate the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks and for the ill-advised invasion of Iraq. The resulting Intelligence Community reorganization, intended to repair these presumed deficiencies, reflects a misunderstanding of what intelligence analysts can do and where responsibility for political and military decisions lie. In fact, the Intelligence Community is far more diversified in its tasks than is generally realized. Where analysis is done and for whom makes a large difference in its effectiveness. Moreover, changing technology is altering how it is done, where, and by whom. The border between what is ‘strategic’ or ‘national’ intelligence and ‘tactical’ intelligence is much diminished. At the same time, intelligence analysts all too often fail to incorporate the growing amounts of open source information, as well as analytic concepts and theories available from academic and scholarly literature.     

论生态责任

生态危机已向我国社会经济的发展提出了巨大挑战,政府、企业和普通公众等生态责任主体必须切实履行各自的生态责任,推进中国社会经济的可持续发展。     

多元智力理论与人才培养

多元智力理论认为,每一个体的智力都是多元的,都具有自己的特点和独特的组合方式。同时,智力的本质是实践能力和创造能力,个体智力的发展方向和程度受到特定社会文化的影响和制约。这一理论对当前我国人才培养有以下几点启示:促进人的全面发展;尊重人的个性发展;注重培养人的实践能力和创造能力;重视社会文化与人的发展相结合。     

Transforming Analysis: The Intelligence Community's Best Kept Secret

This article argues that analytic practices and processes within the US intelligence community have undergone far more fundamental reform than the public or scholarly communities recognize. It identifies the dimensions of this ‘Analytic Transformation’ and explains the reasons for optimism about the future.     

私有化前景:公共选择理论视角

美国<公共行政评论>曾经刊登米勒和金合写的一篇文章,作者指出,"从事实际工作的人经常需要预测潜在行动的后果"(Miller和King,1998).在实施私有化的过程中,这一点尤其富有指导意义.目前这一范式正在席卷整个世界.理智基金会(Reason Foundation)的<私有化:1991年报告>列出了64个国家的"私有化计划"与"私有化趋势".<公共行政评论>曾经刊登了3份有关美国政府私有化的报告(Chi,1998).其中的一份报告指出,美国50个州的15家不同机构都表明,它们大幅增加了私有化的活动.     

Explaining miracles: Third ways and work and welfare

The emergence of the Dutch miracle – often seen as a result of the famous Polder model – has not only resulted in drastic changes as regards the labour market policy, but also in a performance that is considered superior to most other OECD economies. In addition, it is often suggested that this development may well be considered a prototype of the Third Way politics of contemporary social democracy. Both views are scrutinised and discussed by means of a cross-national and cross-time analysis of 19 liberal democracies within the OECD world. The comparative analysis of the labour market performance, also by means of demographic categories, demonstrates that the performance of the Dutch labour market is neither outstanding nor exceptional. It appears mainly to have been caused by the growth of part-time labour. Hence, one may well doubt whether a Dutch miracle exists at all. The analysis also demonstrates that the Dutch labour market performance is neither optimal nor beneficial to all concerned. Finally, it is observed that the social democratic Third Way turns out to be a trade-off in the Netherlands: welfare is becoming less generous and work comes first.     

Cold War Pioneers in Combined Intelligence and Analysis

From its inception in 1947 until the late 1970s the primary missions of the United States Military Liaison Mission (USMLM) involved maintaining a presence in East Germany for confidence building measures and reporting on items related to indicators and warnings of hostilities initiated by the Soviet Army. While not abandoning its traditional missions, the unit underwent a major transformation in the early 1980s and became the first Humint integrated collection, analysis and production center. Through a combination of factors, USMLM was able to link targeting, single-source collection and analysis while providing insights in a wide range of areas, from nuclear weapons, troop morale, equipment production, technical data, health and ethnic issues and literacy. Most significantly, USMLM confirmed severely reduced manning levels in GSFG combat arms units.

‘Intelligence is best done by a minimum number of men and women of the greatest possible ability.’ (R.V. Jones, the ‘father’ of modern scientific and technical intelligence)     

委托代理行政法律责任分析

委托代理行政,由谁承担法律责任,无论是理论上还是法律规范上都较为笼统,这给实践带来了困难。委托代理行政所产生的法律责任的原因是多方面的,只有对具体情况进行分析,并依据一定的标准原则才能确定法律责任由谁来承担。依据主客观统一归责原则,在客观条件确定下,主观“过错”就成为了分析委托代理行政法律关系中法律责任主旨原则,并根据这一原则精神对委托代理行政法律关系中委托主体的责任、受委托主体的责任和行政相对人的责任进行分析,可以确认三方在委托代理行政中各承担什么责任。     

Explaining migration: theory at the crossroads

The author presents the case that the study of migration over the past century has become too diverse. He reviews works by writers from the several disciplines covering the topic, then cites the need to develop a consistent classification of the types of migration and their origins using standardized terminology. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

竞争理论的演变:分析与评述

竞争理论作为经济学的核心理论,经历了漫长而曲折的演变过程。古典竞争理论和均衡竞争理论都是从静态角度来分析竞争;克拉克实现了竞争理论由古典竞争理论向现代竞争理论的过渡;芝加哥学派、新奥地利学派等现代竞争理论则是在动态环境下研究竞争。本文对这些理论进行全面而系统的阐述和分析。