A级通缉令

这是一间由会议室改造而成的临时办公室，靠墙摆着一溜儿电脑，一张会议桌，一台传真机，两部电话。在今年7、8．9三个月中，它一直是追缉逃犯专项斗争的指挥中心。在靠门的那面墙上挂着的“各地追逃工作情况汇报表”上，捕获在逃人员的数目在时刻增加──到目前为止，已缉获各类在逃人员50000余名。来自公安部的统计表明：1990年至1999年6月底期间负案、批捕、拘留在逃的犯罪嫌疑人和从监管、劳改、劳教场所脱逃的犯罪嫌疑人、罪犯，以及1990年以前重要在逃人员约20万人。这些人，有的是作案累累、恶贯满盈的惯犯，有的是隐姓埋名潜藏多年…     

地方债Q＆A

◎什么是地方债？全称为地方政府性债务，主要由三部分组成：地方政府负有偿还责任的债务（如地方政府债券）、负有担保责任的债务（如政府融资平台公司向企业举借的债务）、其他相关债务（指政府融资平台公司、经费补助事业单位等举借的债务。地方政府虽未提供担保，但如果债务单位出现债务危机，政府会承担救助责任）。     

壮族老“A”

他,五大三粗,结实得象十万大山里的一块石头。他从对面走来时,却如风如飘,悄没声响。他就是当初从一千三百多名新兵里挑选出来的三名侦察兵中的一名。经过九年的火烧锻打,他成了闻名全军的“侦察英雄”。在最近总政组织的“前线英雄汇报团”的名单里,第一名写的就是他——覃显凡。 覃显凡是广西壮族人,他虽然不象武侠小说中的那些武士,有着飞檐走壁、呼风唤雨的本领,但他的擒拿格斗技艺,却使越南侵扰我边境的特工胆颤心     

A king's Indian defence?

The Great Game: On Secret Service in High Asia, by Peter Hopkirk. John Murray, London, 1991. xiv + 526 pp., maps, 24 pp. plates. £19.95. ISBN 0–7195–4727‐X.

Roads and Rivals: The Politics of Access in the Borderlands of Asia, by Mahnaz Z. Ispahani. I. B. Tauris, London, 1991. xvi + 286 pp., maps. £22.95 ($37.80). ISBN 1–85043–145–0.     

A股需要寻求更好平衡

<正>随着4月28日央行官员否认中国版QE,A股上涨已非勇不可挡。此前,市场一度传言中国央行将很快宣布新一轮量化宽松政策,将通过直接购买地方债的方式投放基础货币,以此撬动信用投放,缓解通缩压力,推动经济增长。但4月28日,央行研究局首席经济学家马骏明确澄清:"所谓中国版QE是没有根据的。"他表示,《中国人民银行法》规定央行不得直接向政府提供融资。何况,央行手     

A股为何再次熔断?

正市场人士认为,最直接的原因就是1月8日到期的大小非减持禁令,管理层此前在股市首次触发熔断之后曾透露将有另行规定减持规则,但之后没有任何实质性政策出台。另外,尽管证监会要求大股东们理性减持,但目前只有为数不多的公司响应,这给市场带来了不安定的因素。欧美股市的大跌给市场带来压力,前晚美国三大股指普遍下跌均超过1%。离岸人民币1月7日早上延续此前三天跌势,一度大跌逾650点至6.7600     

对A股期望值别太高

<正>2015年以来,不仅中国A股市场,全球市场都比较热闹。现在需要考虑的是,下半年,高净值的投资者有何佳选?全球宏观:回归平庸去年底,人们对美国经济增长持强烈看多态度,而对欧日经济不看好。2015年首季,美国经济增长十分低迷,而全年增长预期高达3%,也许人们可以将美国首季增长不佳归于罕见严寒天气和美元指数太强。而欧日经济     

A dynamic Duverger’s law

Electoral systems promote strategic voting and affect party systems. Duverger (Les partis politiques, 1951) proposed that plurality rule leads to bi-partyism and proportional representation leads to multi-partyism. We show that in a dynamic setting, these static effects also lead to a higher option value for existing minor parties under plurality rule, so their incentive to exit the party system is mitigated by their future benefits from continued participation. The predictions of our model are consistent with multiple cross-sectional predictions on the comparative number of parties under plurality rule and proportional representation. In particular, there could be more parties under plurality rule than under proportional representation at any point in time. However, our model makes a unique time-series prediction: the number of parties under plurality rule should be less variable than under proportional representation. We provide extensive empirical evidence in support of these results.     

如何看待A股市场的下跌

今年以来，证监当局连续出台了多项股市新政，其目的引用温总理的话来阐述是：“创造条件让更多群众拥有财产性收入”。但事与愿违，A股的表现还是让群众构想中的“财产性收入”变成了“财产性亏损”。     

A Genetic Basis for Social Trust?

A propensity to believe that fellow citizens will not act against our interests in social and economic transactions has been identified as key to the effective functioning of democratic polities. Yet the causes of this type of ‘generalized’ or ‘social’ trust are far from clear. To date, researchers within the social and political sciences have focused almost exclusively on social-developmental and political/institutional features of individuals and societies as the primary causal influences. In this paper we investigate the intriguing possibility that social trust might have a genetic, as well as an environmental basis. We use data collected from samples of monozygotic and dizygotic twins to estimate the additive genetic, shared environmental, and non-shared environmental components of trust. Our results show that the majority of the variance in a multi-item trust scale is accounted for by an additive genetic factor. On the other hand, the environmental influences experienced in common by sibling pairs have no discernable effect; the only environmental influences appear to be those that are unique to the individual. Our findings problematise the widely held view that the development of social trust occurs through a process of familial socialization at an early stage of the life course.     

A rising generation of Europeans? Revisited

The EJPR article ‘A rising generation of Europeans?’ provided systematic evidence for the existence of generational differences in attitudes towards the European Union (EU). In this research note, it is argued that identifying generational differences in specifically affective orientations is the crucial issue for the future of the EU. Drawing on and extending the earlier work expectations in respect to generational and life‐cycle differences in affective orientations are developed and tested, highlighting the existence of the former, their consistency across a range of indicators, and the absence of the latter. The results are an important counterpoint to the growth in ambivalence in attitudes towards the EU.     

What Is Patronage? A Critical Reexamination

Despite a long and storied history, patronage and the functions it plays in American politics and public administration are still very much a mystery. This paper examines how patronage has been used and understood in American political science and public administration. The author calls for a reexamination of the concept based on developments found in the field of anthropology. In an effort to generate future scholarship, the author introduces a typology of patronage styles based on this reexamination.