美伊战争对中美台三角关系影响透视

美国绕过联合国不顾国际社会的普遍反对而发动对伊战争,不但严重损害了联合国权威和现行国际秩序,而且对中、美、台“两岸三边”关系也将产生明显影响。     

远东地区:中国、俄罗斯、美国、日本的安全认知

近年来,远东地区在俄罗斯国家发展战略和对外战略中的地位出现了上升的趋势,这种变化源于对广义和狭义的远东地区的特殊政治经济条件的深入理解.本文指出,远东地区各大国的复杂的安全认知使得这一地区出现了理性国际格局形成的趋势和重新加强结盟以防范对手的趋势同时并存的局面.这种局面表明,远东地区真正的安全合作构架尚在萌芽状态之中.由此,各国一方面应警惕重返冷战旧辙的可能,另一方面更应看到经济上和政治上的互补性和交融性所展示的合作的机会.目前重要的问题是如何抓紧时机,使这一地区的内部发展和跨国合作能够进一步地形成互动.     

美国与上海合作组织:认知、关系和未来

本文在阅读美国智库研究报告、学者论著及美国政府官方文件的基础上,考察了美国政府对上海合作组织的认知、政策及前景。文章认为,美国对上合组织的认知经历了一个从漠视到怀疑、重视的过程,其转折点是2005年上合组织阿斯塔纳峰会。美国对上合组织的政策也随之进行了一定的调整。美国国内主流观点认为,美国必须与上合组织积极接触、对话,防止它成为俄罗斯和中国主导中亚的工具。本文认为,客观上讲,由于美国与上合组织的关系直接影响双方在中亚的利益,因此双方有进行良性互动的必要;而双方在中亚的利益交汇也为良性互动提供了可能性。     

The United States, Germany and France: Balancing Transatlantic Relations

Relations between the United States, France and Germany significantly determine the content and structure of the broader transatlantic relationship. Relations improved after the changes of government in Germany in 2005 and France in 2007, and they can be expected to improve further after the change of administration in the United States in 2009. Washington is likely to pay more attention to its European allies while these may become more involved in issues beyond Europe's borders. Sharing leadership will be the challenge for the United States, while bringing more intellectual and material input will be the challenge for the Europeans. At the same time, France and Germany will develop and maintain independent views. But if partnership is the aim on both sides of the Atlantic, a more promising relationship can be expected even where differences exist.     

NATO: The United States, Transformation and the War in Afghanistan

During the Bush years, NATO exhibited in stark form two trends which have long characterised its development: periodic exposure to crisis and division, and a subordination to American leadership. Despite signs of American indifference towards the alliance, talk of the Bush administration levering a break with NATO was always overstated, particularly so during its second term of office. Views of NATO after 2004 were shaped by Afghanistan giving rise, in fact, to a return to the alliance on America's part. NATO remains important to Bush's successor but on terms which are as demanding as those of his predecessors. NATO, in other words, is valued in so far as it accords with current US foreign policy priorities. The safest assumption in this regard is that Obama will continue to favour the trend towards a global NATO pursued by the Bush administration. However, retreat (or defeat) in Afghanistan could hasten a contrary trend towards a consolidating NATO with a renewed concentration on the wider Europe.     

Mistaken Attribution: The United States and Inter-Korean Relations

The US-South Korea alliance has been one of the most successful relationships to be forged out of the Cold War era. Since the June 2000 inter-Korean summit, however, one area of consistent friction between the two countries has been over North-South relations. In this article, Victor Cha, associate professor of Government and D.S. Song-Korea Foundation Chair in the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, argues that a key dynamic at play is one of perception, involving errors of attribution. Allied complaints about the other are heard, but attempts to address these complaints are dismissed by the counterpart as having been determined by the situation rather than by volition--that is, disposition. This results in mutual frustration. Since the "axis of evil" appellation attached to North Korea by US president, George Bush, both sides have interpreted North Korean behavior as confirming their own convictions on how to proceed. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, the result has been a dichotomy in the way the two governments approach inter-Korean relations.     

Changing roles: China and the United States in East Asian security

Since the end of the cold war, many changes have been occurring in the East Asian strategic landscape. As the two most significant elements of the East Asian security equation, China and the United States share a special obligation to secure the present and future stability in the West Pacific. Both countries have to adjust their respective roles in response to the changing strategic environment: while China should take a more cooperative stance on regional security issues, the United States should be more sensitive and accommodative to regional demands. There exist several scenarios for the future of Sino-American relations, but it is desirable and possible for Beijing and Washington to form a constructive partnership with security cooperation as one underpinning pillar.     

Quest for freedom: The United States and India's independence

Abstract

In an attempt to publish some reviews sooner after material comes out, the Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars has added this section of short reviews of individual books, movies, TV series, and so on. For more information about short reviews as well as review essays, see the introduction to the list of books to review on p. 92 of this issue.     

美国与"甘泉岛事件"

20世纪50年代中期所谓的"中共甘泉岛登陆"事件引起美国的高度重视,不仅国务院频频召开会议,与驻外使馆联络核实情况,还派出飞机和舰艇前往侦察.美国的立场是:西沙群岛的主权问题尚未解决;坚决反对"中共"在西沙群岛活动.这是其冷战时期遏制战略的一个表现.     

Counterproliferation Bargaining with the United States: China and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

This article analyzes China’s use of issue-linkage strategies in its approach to nuclear proliferation. It highlights that China has used its ties to nuclear proliferators as a bargaining chip vis-a-vis the United States. The United States is dependent on Chinese cooperation to secure nonproliferation objectives such as a non-nuclear Iran, and China has used this dependency to extract side-payments for its cooperation. Moreover, Beijing has used non-cooperation on nuclear proliferation as retaliation when the US has hurt its interests in unrelated policy areas, such as through arms sales to Taiwan. In contrast with past studies, the article claims that China’s approach to nonproliferation remains partly transactional to this day.