非传统安全与中国—东南亚国家的安全关系——以澜沧江—湄公河次区域水资源开发问题为例

本文论述澜沧江—湄公河次区域水资源的开发既有利于中国与东南亚国家的合作安全,但又会引发利益冲突,这一问题的安全化有其必然性和必要性。安全化是各方利益相互博弈以达成妥协的过程,也是一种合作安全的社会建构过程。通过安全化,在横向关系上,澜沧江—湄公河次区域的国家彼此间展开利益的讨价还价而逐渐达成妥协与合作;在纵向关系上,社会群体和个人的权益得到国家的关注。但本文也同时指出,非传统安全问题如澜沧江—湄公河次区域的水资源开发争端最终走向去安全化也是一个必不可少的过程,它与安全化过程构成一个问题的两个方面。     

非传统安全视角下的大湄公河次区域合作评析

在全球化、区域化趋势日益加强的今天,非传统安全问题的凸显成为影响大湄公河次区域合作最为主要的障碍之一。本文分析了大湄公河次区域非传统安全问题的现状及其影响,并探讨了大湄公河次区域非传统安全合作中存在的问题和解决之道。     

微区域安全及其治理的逻辑——以“一带一路”倡议下的“大湄公河微区域”安全为例

微区域是区域合作新的实践重点。以"跨合区"和"经济走廊"为代表的跨境合作在全球方兴未艾,我们将此类跨境合作界定为微区域合作。文章以微区域安全及其治理的逻辑为研究中心建构微区域概念,建构包含微区域与"宏—次区域"的"大区域",以此为基础将微区域安全分为内部安全与微区域间安全,并通过对安全"内渗"与"外溢"效应的分析,探究微区域安全治理的逻辑。文章将"一带一路"视为一种"大区域",将"大湄公河次区域"视为一种微区域,在上述概念与分析框架基础上探究"大湄公河微区域"安全及其治理的逻辑。文章认为,安全既是"大湄公河微区域"产生中的固有要素,也是其当前发展的瓶颈,在"内渗"与"外溢"效应下,"大湄公河微区域"安全治理的关键在于要以中国—东南亚间的规范协调为基础,以在"大湄公河微区域"与"澜湄合作"对接中建构微区域安全规范为重点,最终获取中国参与微区域安全治理的合法性。     

中老缅泰湄公河流域执法安全合作的挑战

中老缅泰湄公河流域执法安全合作所面对的问题具有相当的复杂性。这种复杂性既来自区域的自然地理,也来自区域的社会环境,还有执法安全合作所要面对的问题。执法安全合作所要面对的最直接的便是通过民间便道而聚集的跨国界人流与物流,而四国的经济发展水平、合作意愿程度、执法管控能力,以及国内政治局势都存在着差异,这些都对执法安全合作构成了巨大挑战。四国合作意愿的差异与四国受益差别直接相关,而随着全球化进程的加快,各种复杂因素渗入东南亚地区,使得湄公河流域执法安全合作受到更大的不确定性的挑战。     

中老缅泰湄公河流域联合执法的法律基础与制度建构

澜沧江—湄公河是联通中国与下游五国的黄金水道,在区域合作中发挥着不可替代的作用。湄公河流域频发的犯罪活动,尤其是2011年10月发生在金三角水域的惨案,将联合执法提上了区域安全合作的议事日程。事件发生后,中老缅泰四国通过开展联合巡逻执法恢复了湄公河的国际航运,但相关制度的构建仍在探索之中。四国应依据相关国际法原则,结合该流域的现实情况,参照其他流域和国家的实践,尽快签署联合执法合作协定。     

亚洲开发银行与湄公河次区域经济合作

湄公河流域区域合作在20世纪90年代初重新活跃,并形成了众多国际组织和国家参与的合作机制.其中亚洲开发银行牵头组织的湄公河次区域经济合作是最有成效的一个.本文试图探究亚行在湄公河区域合作过程中的作用与挑战.     

大湄公河次区域经济走廊建设与中国的参与

经济走廊建设是推进大湄公河次区域经济合作(GMS)的重要发展战略,其核心是将次区域交通走廊的建设与经济发展相结合,把交通走廊转变为经济走廊。2008年6月,大湄公河次区域经济走廊论坛在昆明正式成立,标志着GMS交通走廊将逐步发展成为全面成熟的经济走廊。本文认为,经济走廊建设是新形势下进一步深化大湄公河次区域合作的重要路径和突破口,同时也是中国参与大湄公河次区域合作的重要形式,并将对中国与东盟的经贸合作产生深远的影响。     

"峰会年"看澜湄地区制度竞合

澜沧江—湄公河地区合作制度之间的竞争与合作正在日益复杂化。2018年作为"峰会年",可以为评估该地区的制度竞合提供有效的视角。通过提出参与成员是否具有排他性、主导成员是否为同类型国家、议题领域是否重叠、合作内容是否涉及"高级政治"、目标原则是否具有外向性这5个维度的指标进行系统评估,并对中国、日本、越南和泰国四个关键国家的互动进行案例分析,文章发现,澜湄地区合作制度之间的竞争被夸大了;澜湄合作与日本—湄公河合作互为主要的竞争对象,但前者是被动跟随而非主动挑起竞争;柬老越发展三角、柬老缅越合作与伊洛瓦底江—湄南河—湄公河三河流域经济合作战略也相互竞争,但后者正在取得优势;澜湄合作与大湄公河次区域经济合作、湄公河委员会之间不会出现"制度达尔文主义"。     

泰国与越南在湄公河地区的合作与竞争

20世纪90年代以来,湄公河地区的经济合作取得了巨大进展.其中,泰国与越南表现突出.泰国和越南在充分利用GMS经济合作机制的同时,试图建立起以本国为中心的合作机制,以扩大其在区域经济合作中的影响力.泰国和越南在湄公河地区的合作或竞争,将决定该地区经济合作的未来.     

湄公河水电开发对地区局势的影响

湄公河电站建设有可能造成河流水位异常变化、河堤受侵蚀加剧、鱼类减少等生态问题,进而导致流域内渔业和粮食安全受到威胁,影响深远,因而遭到有关国家的反对。围绕电站开发产生的利益纷争,域内各国已尝试从外交层面加以解决,但未取得预期效果,从而对中南半岛的和平、安全与合作产生了一定负面作用。未来,湄公河水电开发可能成为影响东南亚...     

Authoritarianism and UMNO's factional conflicts

Abstract

Do democratic political regimes facilitate more robust environmental and natural resource regulatory policies? Yes, in many cases. Using detailed cases of natural resource policy making in Thailand, however, we find that neither political parties nor civil society nor state institutions do well in representing diffuse interests, mediating among conflicting ones or defining compromises and securing their acceptance by most key players. Gains in environmental or natural resource policy making have not been dramatically more likely under democratic regimes than under “liberal authoritarian” ones with broad freedoms of speech and association. We argue that Thailand's democratic political system features weak linkages between groups in society and political parties, lacks alternative encompassing or brokering institutions in civil society, and that these features account for a tendency for political democracy to fail to deliver on its policy potential in Thailand.     

Community Participation, the Environment, and Democracy: Brazil in Comparative Perspective

Grassroots environmental activism among Latin America's poor has altered the debate over environmental policy, social welfare, and citizenship. Yet the question remains whether this social mobilization of the poor is part of a larger trend toward broader environmental concerns and democratic political participation, or a shortlived movement susceptible to the same pressures that have dissolved community mobilization in the past. This article compares Brazil with other Latin American and European countries in surveys of environmental awareness, concerns, and reported behavior. It finds that Brazilians residing in the urban periphery link their own local environmental concerns to more global considerations, and that concern for and activism on environmental issues is positively related to wider community involvement.     

The gender gap in pro-environmental political participation among older adults

Citizens are increasingly concerned with environmental issues and some of them take contentious political actions or adapt their lifestyles to reduce their environmental footprint. Research finds that there is an eco-gender gap in everyday environmental behaviours, with women more active than men. However, studies of the eco-gender gap have infrequently looked at other forms of pro-environmental political behaviours and focused mostly on young people. We contribute to the literature by examining to what extent older women and men differ in a range of pro-environmental political behaviours, using a unique dataset based on a survey of individuals 64 years and older. We find strong evidence of a gender gap in everyday behaviours and political consumerism, but not in relation to contentious forms of political participation. This gender gap in relation to everyday behaviours and political consumerism diminishes with age.     

全球环境治理“领导者”的蜕变:加拿大的案例

加拿大长期以来曾是西方发达国家中积极领导全球环境治理的典范,一度也是全球气候治理的积极参与者,但是近年来却俨然蜕变为气候谈判中的"拖后腿者"。发生这种转变的原因究竟是什么?本文通过国际和国内、政治与经济多个层面的分析发现,除了美国因素以外,加拿大国内的经济形势变化和政治体制是导致其战略变化的主要原因。20世纪90年代以来,油砂大规模开发和原油出口(特别是对美国的市场依赖),导致加拿大在气候变化问题上处于比较劣势;而相关利益集团的游说,正好与加拿大松散的联邦制等制度因素相结合,导致了加拿大气候政策的转向。从这个层面上看,经济利益的变化和政治决策制度特征共同成为决定国家气候或环境战略的主要因素。在某种程度上,这一案例也反驳了发达民主国家因其制度因素必然成为全球环境保护积极支持者的命题。     

Behind the ‘Miracle’: Non‐Traditional Agro‐Exports and Water Stress in Marginalised Areas of Ica,Peru

Expansion in the non‐traditional agricultural export sector following neoliberal reform has precipitated an economic transformation in Peru. Non‐traditional agricultural export growth has brought environmental, social and distributive costs. This article critically examines the Peruvian asparagus boom and the impact of this on water availability among marginal groups. Based on primary case study fieldwork, the paper asserts that the agro‐export model is causing the over‐exploitation of important groundwater supplies in the Ica Valley where almost all of Peru's fresh asparagus is produced. This reveals wider issues concerning neoliberal development and the political economy of natural resource allocation in Latin America.     

Access to party positions and preference formation: a field experiment

Abstract: Surveys are sometimes used to assess preferences towards policy issues that are remote from experience and that have never been publicly discussed. How do these preferences of isolated survey respondents compare with preferences expressed by voters who have access to advice from competing political parties? I address this question by conducting a field experiment with a sample of the general public in which I experimentally control the subjects’ access to the actual positions of competing parties and interest groups on specific novel policy propositions. Access to party positions decreased approval of the proposed environmental policy among right‐wing voters by over fifty percent, and this effect was similar for different educational groups. When voters had access to party positions, their policy preferences were more consistent with their general political orientation. I conclude by discussing implications of these results for the debate about voter competence and for preference elicitation using surveys.     

"碎片化"社会的政治整合——马来西亚的政治文化探析

复杂多元、碎片化的政治亚文化使马来西亚的各种族、各政党、各团体之间存在着紧张关系,削弱了政治整合的效能,而自由民主制度的竞争性特征更加剧了这一趋势。然而,由于各种族、各阶层的政治文化存在着相近的或共融的内容,比如权威主义心理取向和集体主义价值观等,再加上政治运作过程中逐渐磨合出的政治妥协、合作和理性等精神,既构成了马来西亚主流政治文化的内在机理,也为马来西亚的政治整合提供了有效的政治文化资源。这种政治文化奠定了马来西亚软权威主义政治的重要基石,从而成为后发国家政治发展中的一道独特的政治景观。     

Russian Constitutional Crisis: Law and Politics Under Yel'tsin

This article is a foray into the understudied issue of environmental protest politics in Central Asia. Specifically, it uses Kyrgyzstan as a case study to test the argument that environmental concerns mobilized people to engage in protest and in ways different from other kinds of protest. This essay presents the first systematic study of public opinion about the environment in Kyrgyzstan. It includes results from a 2009 nationwide survey, over 100 expert and elite interviews, and newspaper content analysis. Furthermore, it spatially analyzes these results to identify geographical variation in public perception and political event occurrence patterns. Protest engagement is a complex process determined by the interaction of several factors, and is not explained solely by affluence, rationality, or grievances. Eco-mobilization – collective political action about the environment – represents a class of protest events that offers a different view into mass discontent in the former Soviet Union and neo-patrimonial societies. The study finds that these political actions about the environment are not necessarily elite driven; there is a basic foundation of national concern and salience of these issues, and demonstrated environmental beliefs do help to explain protest behavior.     

China’s political system in the 1990s

Analysts differ greatly in their assessments of the long-term stability of the Chinese political system. This article argues that China’s probable future is one of continued political muddling through, but some developments—especially the political succession—could radically change this. The article also examines two questions that are not adequately addressed by the focus on political stability: the types of relationships that will develop between the rapidly growing coastal areas and the more slowly advancing interior; and the efficacy of the polity in dealing with looming environmental and demographic crises. To address these problems, this article assesses respectively the political system’s overall strengths, deficiencies, and challenges in the coming years.     

Fractured International Environmental Governance and the Potential Role of the Commonwealth in Biodiversity and Climate Change

Abstract

This paper begins by examining the reasons behind most failures of governance, including fault lines in institutional and professional specialisation, and in ideology. These three, forever competing within and between themselves, frustrate attempts to find solutions to some of the world's most pressing challenges. Not least among these are environmental challenges, where preferences and priorities that are geographically, professionally or ideologically narrow inevitably fail to achieve solutions for the greater good. What role can the Commonwealth play in addressing the fracture lines that bedevil solutions for climate change and biodiversity? It may help to stimulate global action on these issues if it can encourage agreement across multidimensional global boundaries. We know the Commonwealth is not a leading global force for controlling climate change or biodiversity loss; but if it had the political will it could be an exemplar of how, between a group of vastly diverse countries across the globe—and on the global political stage—binding agreement and positive action on climate change and biodiversity could be promoted and perhaps achieved. One of the strongest features of the Commonwealth is the generation of long-standing legal and ethical norms whose appeal is obvious even if their implementation is lacking. These norms should not be limited to the rule of law, democracy and human rights, but should include environmental norms because these too are fundamental to a satisfactory human condition.