The Beliefs of the Blob

The conventional wisdom of US foreign policy has at its core a set of widely held yet underexamined beliefs. Together, these notions constitute the essence of what has become tendentiously known as “the blob,” or the official mind of US national security. Debates and analyses can proceed more productively if foreign policy beliefs, rather than the people who hold them, are moved to the center of analysis. The blob is a mindset, not a group of individuals—one that is based on a few basic assumptions about the world and the United States’ place in it. This article describes what those beliefs are and how they influence US foreign policy.     

Attitudes toward Consent-Based and Non-Consent-Based International Law in a Regional Power Context

International legal scholars have identified and argued for and against new forms of non-consent-based international law. We study variation in Brazilian public opinion about adherence to international law created in three different ways: through a consent-based multilateral treaty, by the U.N. Security Council with the participation of Brazil, and by the U.N. Security Council without the participation of Brazil. Information that Brazil has participated in creating the international legal obligation through a multilateral treaty or membership on the Security Council yields levels of support for adherence to the legal obligation that are similar to those found when the origins of the legal obligation are generic. Information that the international legal obligation was created without Brazil’s participation, on the other hand, results in reduced support for compliance. This difference, which is particularly concentrated among highly educated respondents, is not driven by reduced concerns about reputational consequences or sanctions. Our results suggest that the increased use of non-consent-based forms of international law might be challenged by a lack of public support for compliance.     

The Foreign Policy Beliefs of Political Campaign Contributors

Since the Vietnam War, scholarly interest in public and elite opinion of U.S. foreign policy has grown. Because elites generally have greater access to policy makers and more consistent political views, most work on this topic has focused on elite opinions of foreign policy. Most research has defined the term elite broadly, often placing more emphasis on social status than political power. We will reexamine elite foreign policy beliefs using a different elite, presidential campaign contributors. We have two main goals in this article. First, we will assess the differences between the foreign policy outlooks of political campaign contributors and other elites. While many types of elites may influence policy, political contributors are particularly likely to gain access to policy makers. The second part of this research note offers some food for thought on the origins of these beliefs. We present evidence that foreign policy beliefs are related to the same ideological orientations that shape contributors' views on domestic issues. The origins of foreign and domestic policy views should probably be considered together.     

美国对朝鲜政策特点及其影响

美国是影响朝鲜核问题走向和东北亚安全架构与形势的主要因素。当前美国对朝主要以诱拉为主,着重通过交流与对话解决与朝鲜在朝核等问题上的分歧,且取得明显成效。这对朝美关系的改善与朝核问题的解决,很有裨益,并将对东北亚安全局势及东北亚安全合作机制的发展产生积极影响。但美国并没有完全放弃对朝以压促变的政策,朝核问题和半岛局势仍存变数,东北亚安全模式尚处于十字路口。     

The Quantitative Analysis of Terrorism and Immigration: An Initial Exploration

This article uses immigration and other biographical data to refute much of the conventional wisdom about the relationship between terrorism and immigration. Using a database created from the biographical data of 373 terrorists, we have established a number of significant findings. Over forty percent of our database is made up of Western Nationals. Second, despite widespread alarms raised over terrorist infiltration from Mexico, we found no terrorist presence in Mexico and no terrorists who entered the U.S. from Mexico. Third, we found a sizeable terrorist presence in Canada and a number of Canadian-based terrorists who have entered the U.S. In addition to illuminating the terrorist networks entrenched in the West, this paper is also an attempt to advance the field of terrorism studies by taking a quantitative approach to data analysis.     

欧盟的移民政策一体化进程

在欧洲一体化的历史进程中,移民事务一直是一个相当敏感的问题。与日趋完善的经货同盟一体化程度相比,欧盟移民政策的一体化不仅起步较晚,而且在发展过程中也步履维艰。尽管在欧洲联盟中,移民政策的一体化还是一个新生事物,但在最近的20年里,它愈来愈受到欧盟层面和各成员国政府的广泛关注。移民问题业已成为欧盟中“至关重要的政治问题”(crucial political issue)①。一、移民政策一体化的内涵著名移民政策专家哈马尔(Hammar)将移民政策(Immigration Policy)分为两个组成部分:其一是移民控制政策(immigration control policy),也就是管…     

对外开放与中国外交

近30年前开始实施的对外开放政策不仅帮助中国走上崛起之路,给中国社会带来了翻天覆地的变化,而且还对中国外交产生了极为重大而深远的影响.对外开放促使中国摈弃以意识形态划线的外交模式,转而从现代化建设的现实需要出发,寻求同世界所有国家发展友好合作关系.与对外开放相适应,中国大力改善、巩固和发展同西方发达国家的关系,努力超越社会制度和意识形态的差异,寻求共同利益的汇合点,扩大互利合作,力争通过对话解决彼此之间的分歧,避免对抗.进入新世纪后,面对国际社会对中国崛起的关注和担忧,中国提出要始终不渝走和平发展道路,为此,中国将始终不渝奉行互利共赢的开放战略.     

非典对当前国际关系的影响

近来,“非典型肺炎”在全球范围内蔓延,成为继2001年“9·11”袭美事件以来又一大震撼世界的非传统国际热点问题。“非典”的冲击和影响已超出一般意义上的卫生防疫范围,波及到世界政治与经济;超出了任何一国的国内问题范围,是当前牵动国际关系大局的一个突出因素。     

The Impact of Palestine on Arab politics

The economic rationale for energy collaboration between Turkey, Cyprus and Israel is compelling. Cyprus and Israel need commercially viable export routes for their gas while Turkey is eager to diversify and increase its gas supplies. Hydrocarbon resources could potentially be a catalyst for both bringing about a Cyprus settlement and a Turkey-Israel rapprochement. A trilateral cooperation scheme involving a Turkey-Israel pipeline and an LNG plant in Cyprus could offer strong commercial incentives to all parties. But it would require bold political vision on the part of the region’s leaders, coupled with backing from influential external actors with an interest in reconciliation and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.     

The Determinants of Palestinians' Attitudes Toward Peace with Israel

This study explains the variations in the Palestinians' support of the peace process with Israel. It uses multivariate Logit analysis, employing a large public opinion poll conducted in January 2000. It tests seven hypotheses, drawn from various perspectives, on the conditions of Palestinian support of or opposition to the peace process.
The study supports several of our hypotheses including the positive association between the Palestinians' perceptions of democracy and the support of peace and Palestinian women's support of the peace process. These results are important because they reconfirm the findings of the vast international relations literature, which established a strong linkage between democracy and peace and that women are more peace-oriented than men.
The study further suggests that the Palestinians associate their support of the peace process positively with their trust of domestic political institutions, a sound nation-building process, and governmental public accountability, and negatively with the perception of governmental corruption. It also reveals that the Palestinians' positive evaluation of their domestic institutions and Israel's commitment to a just and fair settlement to the conflict are more important determinants of the support of the peace process than efforts to improve their economic conditions and that the economic conditions have, at best, a small impact upon the support of or the opposition to peace. Lastly, the study points to the presence of a positive relationship between support of the peace process and each of political institutionalization, party identification, and the second level of leaders. This finding points to an emerging trend among Palestinians toward political maturation and stabilization of their domestic politics.     

论文化对国际制度创新的影响

在国际关系领域,国际制度创新的基本目标是使制度更加体现国际社会的基本政治认同与价值观念,更加促进地区稳定与世界和平。文化作为一种共有观念,对于国际制度创新具有更加明显的促进作用,这一作用通过在非传统安全领域形成全球集体认同,或在地区层面建构制度创新的共识等方式表现出来。通过文化与权力的结合、文化与利益的结合,并通过国际社会的长期实践,在一定的危机或者偶然因素的促动下,文化就有可能实现制度化,推动国际和地区的合作进程。     

伊拉克战争对国际关系的影响

推翻萨达姆政权并控制伊拉克和中东的石油资源,扫除在美国实现其独霸世界目标道路上的障碍,是美国发动伊拉克战争的主要原因。美对伊战争的胜利将使美国的霸权地位得到进一步巩固和提高,对未来世界格局的走向产生深远的影响。     

中东国家劳工移民概述

中东劳工移民的来源、去向和背景 关于中东①的劳工移民②,国内学界的研究鲜有涉及.但是,根据联合国<2004年人类发展报告>数据显示,在劳工移民占国家总人口的比例中,居全球前四位的国家均是中东国家,分别是阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特、约旦和以色列,居第六位和第九位的阿曼、沙特阿拉伯也为中东国家.关于中东国家的劳工移民情况,请参见表1.     

西伯利亚燃料能源综合体对环境的影响

西伯利亚联邦区能源综合体对该地区经济发展具有重要作用,但同时它也是环境的一个主要污染源。尽管西伯利亚联邦区在实施燃料能源综合体项目时采用了净化设施,但目前还不可能完全消除燃料能源部门对环境造成的负面影响。因此,能源综合体必须加强环保工作,尽快采取切实可行的措施。     

伊拉克战争牵动国际格局调整

2007年5月1日是美国宣布伊拉克战争结束四周年.四年多来天下并未太平,国际战略格局呈现以下新特点:     

The Impact of Pro-Government Militias on Human Rights Violations

New data show that between 1982 and 2007, in over 60 countries governments were linked to and cooperated with informal armed groups within their own borders. Given the prevalence of these linkages, we ask how such links between governments and informal armed groups influence the risk of repression. We draw on principal-agent arguments to explore how issues of monitoring and control help understanding of the impact of militias on human rights violations. We argue that such informal agents increase accountability problems for the governments, which is likely to worsen human rights conditions for two reasons. First, it is more difficult for governments to control and to train these militias, and they may have private interests in the use of violence. Second, informal armed groups allow governments to shift responsibility and use repression for strategic benefits while evading accountability. Using a global dataset from 1982 to 2007, we show that pro-government militias increase the risk of repression and that the presence of militias also affects the type of violations that we observe.     

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on World Politics

Major earth-changing events took place in the first decade of the 21st century. First,the 9/11 terrorist attacks created shockwaves in the realm of international security. But the global financial crisis had even greater repercussions than 9/11. Policy makers and strategists should closely follow the developments and ramifications of this crisis.