美国在黎以冲突中的得与失

8月14日,黎巴嫩真主党和以色列开始执行联合国安全理事会通过的1701号决议案,历时一个多月的黎以冲突终于告一段落.表面上看,这场地区战争的主体是以色列和黎巴嫩真主党,实际上参与战争的远不止这两个国家.有人将这场战争称为"代理人战争",以色列是美国的代理人,真主党游击队是伊朗、叙利亚的代理人,这种说法尽管与事实有一定的差距,但也从一个侧面说明黎巴嫩、以色列之外的国家在战争中发挥着重要作用.     

沃勒斯坦评黎以冲突和以色列的立国战略

2006年8月1日美国http://fbc.binghamton.edu网站发表了美国著名左翼学者沃勒斯坦题为《以色列能达到什么目的?》的文章,展望了7月份爆发的黎以冲突的前景,评论了以色列长期以来在中东的立国战略,认为以色列和美国一样,意图通过武力达到目的,这在未来是行不通的。文章主要内容如下。以色列于1948年建国。从那以后,以色列国内的犹太人和阿拉伯人之间、以色列和邻国之间就不断发生暴力冲突。有时候,暴力冲突处于低水平甚至隐而不见。而每隔一段时间,暴力冲突便升级为公开交战,就像现在这样。全面暴力冲突一旦爆发,人们马上就开始讨论是什么导…     

本刊特约专家深度分析热点国际战略新闻 黎以冲突会升级和扩大吗?

以色列军政首脑已扬言要大举进攻消灭真主党,但历史经验表明,这可能适得其反。此次冲突起因于两名以军士兵被黎巴嫩真主党武装绑架,以色列新政府反应强烈,大动干戈。与沙龙执政时期对巴勒斯坦人的有限报复措施形成鲜明对照。     

做个信念赢家

他是一个冷酷无情的人,嗜酒如命且毒瘾很深,一次在酒吧里因看不顺眼一个酒保而犯下了杀人罪,目前被判终身监禁。他有两个儿子,年龄相差才一岁,其中一个同样毒瘾甚重,靠偷窃和勒索为生,后来也因杀人而坐监。另外一个儿子却既不喝酒也未吸毒,不仅有美满的婚姻,养了3个可爱的孩子,还担任一家大企业的分公司经理。在一次私下访问中,问起造成他们现状的原因,二人的答案竟然相同:“有这样的老子,     

做个观念赢家

观念,可以改变历史的轨迹,更可以开启成功的大门。唯一的不变就是变化。构成财富     

沉疴缠身良方难觅--阿根廷经济危机浅析

在西方各国喜迎2001年圣诞佳节之际,阿根廷却陷入政治、经济和社会的全面危机.继去年7月阿政府宣布实行"零赤字计划"引发金融动荡以来,阿经济形势迅速恶化并导致社会动荡.德拉鲁阿总统终因无法控制局面而于去年12月20日宣布辞职,反对党正义党人萨阿被国会任命为阿代总统.但好景不长,萨阿及其内阁全体成员就职一周后就在人民的抗议声中被迫辞职.最后接过"烫手山芋"临危受命总统一职的是上届全国大选中败于德拉鲁阿的正义党总统候选人杜阿尔德,其任期至2003年底结束.阿根廷这个拉美第三经济强国,在世纪之交却濒临经济崩溃的边缘并造成政府连续更迭,其深刻原因令人深思.     

新全球经济的赢家

无论眼前的这些挑战如何解决,可以肯定,世界经济正在进入新一轮的长期困难阶段——这可能是二战结束以来最不利于经济增长的一段时期。短期内,世界经济将面临极大的不确定性。欧元区是否能够理清自己的问题,避免出现分裂的结局?美国能否走上一条增长恢复之路?中国能不能找到扭转经济增长放缓的方法?这些问题的答案将影响全球经济在未来几年内的发展。但是无论眼前的这些挑战如何解决,可以肯定,世界经济正在进入新一轮的长期困难阶段——这可能是二战结束以来最不利于经济增长的一段时期。     

创新是最大的赢家

在1996年,要为“新经济”作一个定义,那就是新经济是以技术为动力的经济。5年以后,新现象产生,新经济的定义也要改了。它还是以技术为动力,但应该是创新与进取精神蓬勃发展。比如,这5年当中,财富、股票、互联网,并不只是技术,而是创新与进取精神。     

时间管理——赢家的选择

分秒必争的信息时代,谁能更好地运用时间资源,谁就是人生的赢家。     

国大党成为印度大选最大赢家

2009年5月16日,号称“世界上最大民主选举”的印度第十五届人民院选举结果公布,执政的印度国大党在总共543个人民院直选席位中得到206席,稳坐议会第一大党交椅,成为本次大选最大的赢家。国大党领导的竞选同盟团结进步联盟表现突出,共赢得262席。而印度人民党作为最大反对党和唯一能与国大党抗衡的全国性政党,     

没有胜者的乌克兰议会选举

2007年9月30日,乌克兰举行了议会选举,这是其自1991年独立以来首次提前举行议会选举。根据乌中央选举委员会公布的最终结果,共有5个党派得票率超过3%,进入新一届议会。亚努科维奇领导的地区党获得议会450个议席中的175席,季莫申科联盟156席,尤先科的"我们的乌克兰-人民自卫"联盟72席,乌克兰共产党27席,     

Nagorny Karabakh conflict: prospects for conflict transformation

The article explores the current stalemate in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, and perspectives for conflict transformation. As the conflict has remained dormant for more than 20 years, the political systems of the countries engaged in the conflict have adjusted to the conflict situation. The conflict is often used by the political elites in order to legitimize their power, consolidate support, marginalize opponents, and neutralize democratizing pressures. Since the status quo serves the interests of the authorities, the ruling regimes do not have strong incentives to seek conflict resolution. In these conditions, conflict transformation approaches are considered a necessary means to deal with the conflict. Given that political elites have little incentive to implement such transformation, civil society actors come increasingly to the fore. Only through multitrack initiatives supported by civil society actors, we argue, can conflict transformation practices advance and subsequently bring peace to the region.     

Discussing conflict in contemporary China

The research suggests there is a gap in the peace studies and conflict resolution literature, with little representation or understanding of Chinese perspectives. In a project to address this gap, the researchers conducted interviews individually with 30 participants identified as ‘ emerging leaders’, who came from diverse universities and parts of the Peoples’ Republic of China. This paper reports on the language used by young emerging leaders to talk about conflict, the main concepts that were discussed and what meanings may be communicated in the context of contemporary China. The research method was developed in collaboration with Chinese academics, was elicitive and dialogic, used context-grounded vignettes of conflict scenarios and aimed to build a foundation for deepening dialogue and engagement. The findings are important theoretically for a more inclusive peace and conflict studies literature and have practical implications for the way in which relationships with China may best be approached.     

Limiting conflict in the Gulf

Non‐fiction reviews

Undoing Independence: regionalism and the reincorporation of Transkei into South Africa. Andrew Donaldson, Julia Segar and Roger Southall (eds), Grahamstown: Institute of Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University, 1992. (Special Issue of Journal of Contemporary African Studies 11(2); published mid‐1993) pp 281 US$12.00 pb

Frontiers. The Epic of South Africa's Creation and the Tragedy of the Xhosa People. Noel Mostert, London: Jonathan Cape, 1992, pp xxix + 1355. £25

Ghana and the Rawlings Factor. by Kevin Shillington, London: Macmillan, 1992, pp 184, £5.95 pb, £14.95 hb

Staying Poor. Ghana's Political Economy, 1950–1990. by Douglas Rimmer, Oxford: Pergamon Press (for the World Bank), 1992 pp

Class, Politics and Ideology in the Iranian Revolution. by Mansoor Moaddel, New York and Oxford: Columbia University Press, 1993, pp 309, $43.50 hb

The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality. by John L Esposito, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992, pp 212, $22.00 hb.

Latin American Theories of Development and Underdevelopment. by Cristobal Kay, London and New York: Routledge, 1989, pp 295

Communications and the ‘Third World’. by Geoffrey Reeves, London: Routledge, 1993, pp 277, £12.99 pb

A New World Order: Grassroots Movements for Global Change. by Paul Ekins, London: Routledge, 1992, pp 248, £9.99 pb

Reference reviews

Directory of African Film‐Makers and Films. Compiled and edited by Keith Shiri, Trowbridge, Wiltshire: Hicks Books, 1992, pp 194, £33.00 hb

The Penguin History of Latin America. by Edwin Williamson, London: Allen Lane, The Penguin Press, 1992, pp 631, £25.00 hb

The United Nations Library on Transnational Corporations. Edited by John Dunning The Theory of Transnational Corporations. Vol 1 Transnational Corporations: a historical perspective. Vol 2 Transnational Corporations and Economic Development. Vol 3. Transnational Corporations and Business Strategy. Vol 4. London: Routledge, 1992, total pp 1644, Boxed set of four volumes: £350.00.

Green Globe Yearbook 1992. Edited by H O Bergesen, M Norderhaug and G Parmann, For Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway Oxford &; New York: Oxford University Press, 1992, pp 303, £25.00 hb

World Resources 1992–93: A Guide to the Global Environment. Toward Sustainable Development. by The World Resources Institute, In collaboration with United Nations Oxford &; New York: Oxford University Press, 1992, pp 385, £15.95

Millennium: Tribal Wisdom and the Modern World. by David Maybury‐Lewis, London: Viking, 1992, pp 397, £17.99 pb     

Sectarianism and conflict in Syria

This article challenges the sectarian narrative of Syria’s current civil war, which relies on several false assumptions about the nature of political identity. It first questions how sectarian the uprising and civil war actually are, suggesting that the conflict is ‘semi-sectarian’, given the multiple other fault lines of contention, notably class, ideology and other non-sect, sub-state ties. It then draws on the theoretical debates between primordialists, ethno-symbolists and modernists to historicise political identity development in Syria. In doing so, it reasserts the modernist case, emphasising how political identities in Syria, both national and sectarian, have developed in a complex interrelated manner in the modern era and how the recent violent mobilisation of sectarian identity is the result of long- and short-term structural, economic, socio-cultural and political factors rather than unchanging ancient animosities. Of these, the most vital remain structural changes and elite reactions to them, with the prospect of state collapse in Syria’s future the most likely cause of a descent into further sectarian chaos.     

New media and governance in conflict

The role of new media in shaping the interactions of formal and informal leaders with their audiences is frequently misunderstood and often narrowly focussed on electoral processes and political competition. By weaving together strands of scholarship on political communication and political settlement while engaging with concepts of hybrid governance and leadership more prevalent in the African studies literature, this article takes a different, wider focus. We attempt to knit a framework that challenges normative assumptions on institutional communicative practices and considers the role of power, leadership and communications in both exacerbating and mitigating violent conflict in emerging and consolidating democracies. By bringing together disparate strands of scholarship that are rarely in dialogue, we question a characterisation that contrasts vertical mainstream media with more horizontal and inclusive social media, arguing that a more nuanced view of the political significance of these spaces is required, one that highlights their interplay and blurs the boundaries between online and offline. In doing so, the article places power at the centre of analysis to examine how entrenched relations of patronage can be left unscathed, transformed or even reinforced by networked forms of communication.     

Water and international conflict

This article seeks to clarify the conceptual usefulness of the concept of complex political emergency (CPE) through an analysis of the Central American conflicts and post-conflict reconstruction. It argues that CPEs are a distinct category of conflicts of the 1990s, characterised by state collapse/failure in countries with historically weak states and where the dynamic of globalisation has undermined the relevance of state- and nation-building to owners of capital and power. In addition, they coincide with the collapse of universal mobilising principles into multipolar struggles around particular interests. Central America, like many of the countries where the term CPE is applicable, is on the periphery of the global economy. Its civil war in the 1980s, however, was driven by qualitatively different factors. Nevertheless, Central America has been affected in the 1990s by the same forces which currently affect CPEs. These forces have seriously undermined the post-conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding processes in the region, despite a considerable and in many respects creative set of initiatives by international donors, particularly at the micro level.