Poverty and Survival

A recent literature highlights the uncertainty concerning whether economic growth has any causal protective effect on health and survival. But equal rates of growth often deliver unequal rates of poverty reduction and absolute deprivation is more clearly relevant. Using state-level panel data for India, we contribute the first estimates of the impact of changes in poverty on infant survival. We identify a significant within-state relationship which persists conditional upon state income, indicating the size of survival gains from redistribution in favour of households below the poverty line. The poverty elasticity declines over time after 1981. It is invariant to controlling for income inequality but diminished upon controlling for education, fertility and state health expenditure, and eliminated once we introduce controls for omitted trends.     

Telephone crisis intervention skills: a simulated caller paradigm

Counseling skills were evaluated in a telephone counseling service for Vietnam veterans. Thirty simulated crisis calls were made to telephone counselors by experienced clinical psychologists. The counselors' responses were rated on dimensions that indexed general counseling skills, knowledge of veteran needs, and provision of appropriate advice. Whereas the majority of callers demonstrated adequate counseling skills, many lacked knowledge of veterans' posttraumatic stress, common veteran terminology, and the nature of veterans' experiences. The findings suggest that telephone counseling services that target specific populations should employ comprehensive training to ensure that counselors possess adequate and relevant knowledge about callers and their presenting problems. The simulated caller paradigm appears to be an effective paradigm for training and evaluation of telephone counselors.     

各国保卫外国政要有绝招

随着多边外交不断展开,各国政要的活动也明显增多,他们穿梭于全球各种场合,竞相展现国家影响力及个人魅力.鲜为人知的是,每逢有外国重要人物到访,也是东道国警卫部门最忙的时候,身怀绝技的顶级保镖们,或防守于领导人周围,或布控于周边要地,或身穿警服神情凝重,或平民打扮暗中盯梢,一举一动都透着神秘色彩.     

Roles,trust and skills: A typology of patronage appointments

This article contributes to the study of the politics of patronage appointments by creating a typology of patronage roles based on the nature of trust between patrons and appointees and on the skills patrons seek in appointees. Our classification brings together the dispersed literature on patronage roles and can be applied to the study of modalities of patronage across and within countries. We offer preliminary evidence from our study of the politics of patronage appointments in Latin America suggesting that variations in patronage roles can be related to variations in the institutionalization of party systems and to the nature of the links between political actors and voters. Finally, we explore whether the categories identified in our empirical study can be found in other settings. We conclude that our typology can contribute to the study of the impact of modalities of patronage on the quality of public administration and on political governability.     

A Survival Analysis of U.S. Municipalities in Fiscal Distress

This article uses survival analysis to investigate fiscal distress in U.S. municipalities. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue concentration and debt usage, and negatively correlated with administrative costs and entity resources. We develop a model that can predict the likelihood of fiscal distress and correctly classify up to 86 percent of the sampled governments. The model enables users to analyze the impact of a change in the risk factors. Fiscal distress can be reduced most effectively by increasing tax revenues as a percent of total revenues or decreasing total debt as a percent of total revenues.     

The managerial skills of the top management team and the performance of municipal organisations

This paper examines the extent to which the managerial skills possessed by top management teams affect the performance of municipal organisations in Israel. We evaluated both perceived (education, employment, and culture, recreation and sport services) and objective (collecting efficiency ratio and surplus (deficit) ratio) performance measures. In general, the results show that the managerial skills possessed by the top management team explain variance in organisational performance. Interestingly, structural context plays an important role, especially for performance measures that are potentially less changeable in the short term (collecting efficiency ratio). Managerial skills are a good predictor of performance measures (surplus (deficit) ratio) that can be changed in the short term rather easily, and explain variance in municipal services, especially when the top management team views them as important and highly valued by residents.     

ISIS as an Existential Threat to the Druze: The Struggle for Survival

Faced with an existential threat by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria on one hand, and the repressive regime of Bashar Al-Assad on the other, the Druze community in Syria is faced with a dilemma of what political and military position to take. This study examines a variety of internal and external factors that affect the Druze's political and military choices in Syria, and finds that their best choice is to remain neutral in the conflict. I argue that any political and military choice by the Druze in Syria besides neutrality risks endangering the survival of the entire community. This article examines how internal organizational factors and the international community's divided position play important roles in understanding the Druze's decision to maintain a position of neutrality.     

The Survival of Spanish Provincial Governments in a Quasi-Federal Polity: Reframing the Debate

Despite harsh criticisms, Spanish provincial governments (diputaciones) have survived for 200 years and have remained practically unchanged since the Transition. The survival of diputaciones in a proto-regional state is clearly a paradox that requires consideration of a range of potential explanations. Drawing upon extensive empirical investigation within and around three provincial governments in 2013–2014 (Seville, Barcelona, and Valencia), the survival of the diputaciones is illuminated by the path dependency and functional arguments, but it is most convincingly explained in terms of cartel (party) politics. The impact of the 2008 economic crisis has stretched these “party bargains” to breaking point.     

The Politics of Urban Bias: Rural Threats and the Dual Dilemma of Political Survival

Urban bias in government policy is a common phenomenon in many developing countries. Bates (1981) has famously argued that the wish to industrialize, paired with the political clout of urban residents, results in distinctly anti-rural policies. Empirically, however, the strength of urban bias varies substantially across countries and over time. This paper explains this variation by developing an argument about a countervailing force to urban bias: the threat of a rural insurgency. The direction of urban and rural bias is a function of the political threat that geographically distinct groups pose to the survival of the central government. When the rural periphery lacks collective action capacity, urban bias emerges, but if there exists a credible threat of rural violence, urban bias is diminished. I test this proposition and competing explanations using data on net taxation in the agricultural sector, covering up to 55 low- and middle-income countries from 1955 to 2007. The results show a strong relationship between past territorial conflict (which proxies for credible rural threats) and lower levels of urban bias in the developing world. The findings are robust to alternative model specifications, measures, and sensitivity analyses.     

The education skills trap in a dependent market economy. Romania's case in the 2000s

We discuss the political economic development of Romania since 1989, with a focus on the evolution of higher education (HE). First, we place this evolution in the context of demand for HE by prospective students and employers, focusing on the low demand for skills in the MNC-dominated Romanian economy. Second, we provide empirical insight on indicators of quality, enrolment, and funding as key features of the HE system. We argue that Romania has evolved into a dependent market economy entrenched in a low-skills equilibrium, and that the weakness of the HE system is a key element in this process.     

在生存与失范之间——青年农民工越轨心理的二维路径分析

随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步确立,城乡交流日益频密,越来越多的农村青年进城务工,这一群体具有较高的社会活动能量,他们在给城市带来巨大发展的同时,也引发了一些社会问题。如青年农民工的越轨问题。本文拟从社会体制结构及群体心理这两个纬度对青年农民工的越轨心理进行路径分析,并希冀能够给城市管理体制的改进有所裨益。     

Female Survival Calculations in Politically Violent Settings: How Political Violence and Terrorism Are Viewed as Pathways to Life

Evolutionary theory's utility for the study of political phenomena, including war and nationalism, has been demonstrated. However, these studies fail to explain substate violence, including terrorism, and rarely evaluate whether cost-benefit analyses differ for males and females. This article seeks to demonstrate that evolutionary theory provides intriguing insights into two phenomena that observers find difficult to understand: political violence, including terrorism and self-sacrifice in the form of suicide attacks, and female political violence.     

“Survival of the fittest:” Domestic and international dimensions of the authoritarian reaction in the former Soviet Union following the colored revolutions

This article examines the internal and external reactions by post-Soviet autocrats to the colored revolutions. First, the colored revolutions provoked incumbents in Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other post-Soviet countries to strengthen domestic efforts to preempt opposition challenges. Preemptive measures included restrictions on independent civil society, disruptions of independent electoral monitoring, promotion of pro-government civil society groups, and assaults on opposition and democracy assistance. Such actions, together with already existing endowments, allowed these regimes to survive. Next, the colored revolutions stimulated increased coordination among non-democratic states to squash opposition. Measures included counter-monitoring of elections to offset Western claims of fraud, and increased efforts at military and economic cooperation such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Simultaneously, Russia sought to destabilize Georgia and Ukraine through economic and, in Georgia, military pressure. This authoritarian backlash following the colored revolutions buttressed the surviving autocracies, which prospects for democratization have become even more bleak and distant.