The insecurity of security: The PLA’s evolving doctrine and threat perceptions towards 2000

China currently enjoys a peaceful national security environment, yet the People’s Liberation Army is preparing for an unsettled future that involves various conflictual contingencies around China’s periphery. The PLA’s force structure, deployments, expenditures, and training are all being geared to a new doctrine that emphasizes peripheral defense in support of a diversified range of potential regional threats to China’s definitions of its national security. This articles examines these perceived threats and delineates the doctrinal changes in Chinese military thinking in recent years. It also discusses ways in which China’s new military posture may disrupt international politics in the Asian region. He is author ofThe Making of a Premier: Zhao Ziyang’s Provincial Career (1984) andBeautiful Imperialist: China Perceives America, 1972–1990 (1991).     

The politics of implementing China’s nuclear doctrine,Part II: 1969-Present

The growing industrial base in northern China necessitates China’s obtaining the capability to defend those areas from Soviet attack. Consequently, since the late 1960s, the PRC has been assimilating modern technology into the Maoist view of warfare. The politics of implementing the resulting People’s War Under Modern Conditions doctrine has at times been subject to intense political warfare with adverse consequences for China’s nuclear force posture. PRC leadership decisions also reflected the need to improve conventional and tactical nuclear forces to increase the credibility of the PLA’s deterrent.     

China’s vietnam policy: The road to normalization and prospects for the Sino-Vietnamese relationship

Americans have both underestimated and exaggerated China’s ability to influence developments in Asia. Many saw the normalization of relations between China and Vietnam in 1991 as a sign of China’s growing regional dominance. This article reexamines the process of normalization against the background of historical twentieth-century relations in order to present a more balanced perspective of China’s Vietnam policy. The author examines China’s role at the 1954 Geneva Conference, in 1973 at the Paris Peace Talks, during the deterioration of relations in the 1970s that culminated in the Sino-Vietnamese border war of 1979, and finally, along the road to normalization. Understanding that Sino-Vietnamese cooperation depends less on China’s leverage over Vietnam than on the convergence of interests between the two countries, the author then explores the major issues in Sino-Vietnamese relations in the 1990s.     

Sino-Japanese Energy Security and Regional Stability: The Case of the East China Sea Gas Exploration

The Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea maritime resources was triggered by the unsettled maritime boundary and the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. The dispute has been ascribed by many to intensified competition between China and Japan over energy supply. However this article attributes the fundamental cause of the conflict to power politics and political distrust, which are deemed to have the key role in preventing the two governments from finding a solution. The article analyses the origin and the causes responsible for the Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea gas exploration, and then proceeds to investigate the diplomatic dialogues to reveal the key obstacles in the process.

In Pursuit of an Alternative Model? The Modernisation Trap in China’s Official Development Discourse

This article contributes to the debates on China’s socio-political transformations by tracing the link between China’s modernization and nationalism, and analysing their mutual interplay. Many recent studies discuss post-Mao China’s development as a unique model challenging earlier development approaches. Instead, the argument pursued here points to the dependence of China’s dominant development thinking on the paradigm of modernization and its symbolic celebration in official discourse and public rituals. By tracing the impact of the modernization paradigm in the influential annual publication China Modernization Report and in the 2009 National Day mass parade, the article shows how and what kind of Chinese nation is produced. I argue that China’s ostensibly unique development model is constrained by the modernization thinking underlying it. Analysis of the discourses on modernity and ‘scientific development’ and the symbolism associated with them reveals a series of dichotomies and oppositions underpinning China’s nation-building. China’s pursuit of modernization relies on the suppression of other possible development paths within China and subsumes Chinese development experiences under those of the generalised West, thereby restricting development alternatives to those allowed within a hierarchical view of the world.     

Myths of Commonwealth Betrayal: UK–Africa Trade Before and After Brexit

Abstract

This article critically interrogates claims that a British exit from the European Union (EU) (Brexit) will create opportunities for the UK to escape the EU’s apparent protectionism and cumbersome internal politics in order to pursue a more liberal and globalist trade agenda based on the Commonwealth. Taking a historical view of UK and EU trade relations with the Commonwealth in Africa, the author highlights the way in which the incorporation of the majority of Commonwealth states into the EU’s preferential trading relationships has reconfigured ties between the UK and its former colonies over time. Further, the author suggests that the EU’s recent attempts to realise a vision for an ambitious set of free trade agreements in Africa—the Economic Partnership Agreements—was disrupted not by EU protectionism or internal politics but rather by African resistance to the EU’s liberal agenda for reciprocal tariff liberalisation and regulatory harmonisation. The UK therefore faces a complex challenge if it is to disentangle its trade relations with Africa from those of the EU and to forge its own set of ambitious free trade agreements with African Commonwealth partners.     

The evolution of EU–South Africa relations: What influence on Africa?

South Africa and the European Union (EU) have a longstanding relationship. Their interaction has evolved through various phases, characterised simultaneously by ambitious partnerships coupled with a degree of wariness. As international dynamics change and Africa becomes an increasingly crucial player in global politics, the relationship between the EU and South Africa exerts a host of influences on how Africa and Europe relate to each other. This article discusses the evolution of EU–South Africa relations and highlights direct and indirect influences that this relationship has on the inter-regional partnership between Africa and Europe.     

Nation Branding as Nation Building: China’s Image Campaign

This paper illustrates the links between China’s nation building exercises and its efforts to promote the country as a ‘brand’. By using the examples of the Shanghai Expo, China’s national image films and the revival of Confucius, I show how Chinese soft power is both inward and outward looking. Understanding this dual role of soft power is important in comprehending the underlying motivations behind China’s attempts to create and manage its identity as orderly, prosperous and legitimate.     

Be like bees - the politics of mobilizing farmers for development in Tigray, Ethiopia

Based on long-term ethnographic research, this article analysesthe relations between local politics and farmers’ participationin rural development in Tigray (Ethiopia). It takes an actor-orientedapproach and focuses on local government officials and farmerrepresentatives, who mediate between the government agenciesthat undertake rural development programmes and the farmerswhom they address. To reach the target numbers of programmebeneficiaries, these local development brokers ‘mobilize’farmers to participate. They capitalize upon the historicallegitimacy of the 1975–91 revolution against the militaryDerg dictatorship in which the Tigray People's Liberation Front(TPLF), now heading the national government, and Tigray's ruralpopulation successfully joined forces. They revitalize farmers’collective memory of this alliance and reinvent the revolutionarygrassroots institutions through which it was realized. The effectsof mobilization on participation in development are most evidentamong farmers who are members of the TPLF. A TPLF-developmentnexus arises, structuring local political career opportunitiesalong the lines of development. The case study attempts to contributeto an empirical understanding of the entanglement of local politicsand local development brokerage in rural African societies.     

China’s environment: Foreign trade and investment and international organizations

Not only is China’s environment in decline, but China’s contribution to global environmental deterioration is significant. Because of the global implications of China’s environmental pollution, international action is needed. Foreign trade and investment should be encouraged to incorporate environmental concerns and technology transfer, especially in the area of energy efficiency. Continued and enhanced international cooperation as well as loans and investment through international and regional organizations should also contribute to improving China’s and the global environment. Finally, China should assist in this process by continuing domestic economic reform and the open door policy. Environmental and economic benefits will result from efforts in these three areas.     

China’s view of the war threat and its foreign policy

In analyzing China’s foreign policy since 1949, people tend to take for granted the nature of China’s concern for its national security as the predominant factor in the development of its foreign policy without distinguishing changes in the functions of this factor. The evidence given in this article argues that at least as early as the late 1970s, leaders in Beijing, predominantly Deng Xiaoping, no longer held Mao’s view of the inevitability and imminence of world war, and of the Soviet threat to China’s national security. Therefore I propose that from the beginning of the Deng era in 1978, national status enhancement or muscle building through modernization had replaced national security as the persistent and principal theme in China’s foreign policy. We should not interpret the main reason for China’s increased push for the formation of an international antihegemony united front as its increasing concern about the Soviet threat to its national security. In turn, we may conclude that when China abandoned this united front foreign policy to adopt the Independent Foreign Policy in 1982, it was neither because of a new global reality that was shaping the reorientation of its foreign policy nor because only in 1982 did China rediscover the Soviet threat.     

South Korea-China economic relations: Trends and prospects

Since the establishment of official diplomatic ties in 1992, bilateral economic relations between Korea and China have rapidly improved. The economic dynamism in China is expected to continue in the future. As continued economic development of China gains momentum, the economic relationship between the two countries will further be strengthened. However, future bilateral economic cooperation will take a path that differs significantly from the past. Both the quantity and quality of economic relations will increase and improve. In particular, Korea’s investment in China, which tends to be concentrated in the manufacturing sector, will broaden out to nonmanufacturing sectors, with the strategic motive of gaining access to China’s huge domestic market. His publications includeNortheast Asian Economic Cooperation: Perspectives and Challenges (KIEP, 1991).     

Sources and Transitions of Chinese Foreign Policy: An Introduction

Chinese foreign policy has multiple sources, and the incentives that are driving its behaviour have grown from the domestic/international, as well as from regional, economic, normative, multilateral, and cultural levels. Foreign policy-making in China is becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated. This special issue is drawn from some edited papers presented in the joint workshop between Fudan and Durham Universities on Chinese foreign policy on 29–30 March 2010. By assessing the economic, domestic, regional, global and cultural sources of Chinese foreign policy, we aim to illustrate the various sources and to locate possible ways to consolidate the transitional process, and to spur future endeavour facing China’s foreign policy.     

Libya's foreign policy in flux

This article provides a brief assessment of Libya’s oftenunpredictable foreign policy with regard to Africa. The firstsection presents a brief historical background to Libya’sinvolvement on the African continent and Colonel Gaddafi’smilitary interventionism in Africa. The next section assessesthe 1990s and Muammar Gaddafi’s popularity during thisperiod as well as his often extravagant economic involvementin Africa. The third section considers Gaddafi’s ambitiousrole in the African Union and his efforts to secure a unitedAfrica. The fourth section assesses Gaddafi’s dramaticforeign policy shift from rogue criminal to responsible statesman,following his historic decision to relinquish his country’sweapons of mass destruction (WMD) and an almost enthusiasticwillingness to welcome the West back after decades of antagonismand the subsequent wave of international praise as a consequence.Finally, it gives a brief assessment of the future of Libya’sforeign relations.     

The evolution of Japan's role in ‘Lusophone’ Africa: From inertia to action

This article explores Japan's relations with Lusophone Africa over the past 60 years. It asks what factors have propelled Japan's shift from a foreign policy based on inertia to a more proactive one. Arguably, colonialism and postcolonialism linked to the Cold War politics had a negative impact on Japan's relations with the Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP) and Africa as a whole; this contrasts with Japan's process of ‘Africanisation’ after 1990, reflective of changing external and internal circumstances. The question arises as to whether Japan's relations with the specific PALOP states, and with the group as a whole, have been influenced by, or have had influence over, Japan's long-term approach to other African states. Lastly, what characterises Japan's approach to the PALOP? Findings show mutual gains beyond the simple exploitation of natural resources towards broad-based sustainable growth. Still, from the perspective of the poorest PALOP, development cooperation and trade benefits are unbalanced and insufficient.     

Flawed Mediation and a Compelling Mission: Chinese Diplomacy in the Six-Party Talks to Denuclearise North Korea

This paper examines China’s role in the Six-Party Talks, a multilateral initiative with the aim of denuclearising North Korea. As North Korea’s behaviour has become increasingly provocative, evidenced by the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Incidents and the newly unveiled uranium enrichment plant at Yeonbyon, China’s indecision in dealing with the deteriorating situation has dramatically undermined Beijing’s ability to continue successfully to play the leading mediator role. Yet if China fails to take decisive action now, the consequences could be dire. Further deterioration in North Korea’s behaviour could trigger a nuclear arms race, severely hamper regional economic development and even create a geopolitical split in East Asia, leading to a confrontation between the US, South Korea and Japan acting together on one side, and China, Russia and North Korea aligned on the other. The factors that have prevented China from making further progress in the diplomatic process are many and various and this paper will reveal the complexity of the North Korean issue for China. Foreign academics and policy makers have tended to attribute China’s indecision over North Korea to China putting its own security interests first. But this is far too simplistic a picture of the complex relationship that China has with North Korea. There are a host of factors at work that need to be taken into account to understand the present impasse in the diplomatic process. These factors include China’s emotional ties to North Korea and empathy with its position as the weakest party in the Talks, the conflicting attitudes within the Chinese government itself towards the North, and the competing interests and lack of trust between the different stakeholders. It seems that for the foreseeable future, the North Korean issue will continue to plague Chinese foreign policy until all the parties involved act as a collaborative body to reach a consensus on how to resolve the situation.     

China’s Multidimensional Environmental Issues a Fundamental Challenge for China’s Future Development – a Critical Assessment

China’s environmental degeneration carries fundamental political, economic and social implications for its future development and its international reputation. The complexity of the challenge is underlined by the variety of environmental issues China is confronted with. Among them we can identify water shortage, desertification, industrial and urban air pollution, acid rain, and extreme weather patterns. China is already a major polluter and its growth focus as well as the rapid urbanization process we can observe will further increase the pressure on the environment. China’s ability or inability of formulating an environmental friendly development strategy is of critical importance for its future development.     

Economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region and the role of the P.R.C.

His publications includeChina’s Development Experience in Comparative Perspective, and, with Allen Whiting,China’s Future. This is a revised version of a paper presented at a conference on “Problems of Peace, Security and Economic Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific” June 1987, in Beijing, P.R.C. The conference was co-sponsored by the Institute for Sino-Soviet Studies and the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Beijing, P.R.C.     

A New Scramble for African Oil? Historical, Political, and Business Perspectives

It has been suggested that Africa is experiencing a ‘NewScramble’ thanks primarily to its oil and gas wealth,with the United States and the People’s Republic of Chinaactively competing for access to Africa’s resources. Thisarticle aims to scrutinize the claim that Africa is facing aNew Scramble, analysing the nature of the economic and politicalchanges at work, the importance of Africa’s oil, and thepolitical and economic forces behind the new oil rush. The articlestarts with an overview of the phenomenon labelled by some asthe ‘New Scramble’. The main body of the articleevaluates the existence of a New Scramble from three subjectperspectives: history, international relations, and businessstudies. Finally, by analysing the likely impact on the economiesof oil-producing states, it considers whether we should dismayor rejoice over the ‘New Scramble for Africa’. Itconcludes that the existence of a New Scramble or a US–Chineserace for Africa should be treated with some caution and thatthe use of terms such as ‘scramble’ and ‘race’is perhaps misleading, while the economic impact of oil investmentsis likely to be bleak.     

From Racial Mixture to Black Nation: Racialising Discourses in Brazil's African Affairs

The article links reflections about Brazilian race relations with institutional transnational dialogues between Brazil and ‘Africa’. I point out that although racial/cultural mixture and the ‘brown’ census category have traditionally reflected much of national identity in Brazil, Brazil today is increasingly spelling out its blackness, both on the national and international scenes. I highlight that, not by coincidence, this fact is happening at a historical moment when programmes of ‘black’ affirmative action and other differential politics in favour of Afro‐descendants are taking off in the country, and also at a time when Brazil is expanding its geopolitical and economic interests in Africa.