The Islamic State and Southeast Asia

Up to a thousand Southeast Asians have travelled to the Middle East to fight for the Islamic State. While some may return to Southeast Asia and engage in terrorist operations, the greater threat is that the Islamic State's rise in international prominence will foment homegrown extremism and terrorist activity.     

Competitive diplomacy in Southeast Asia

A series of diplomatic manoeuvres by China and Japan in Southeast Asia has underlined their increasing competition for regional influence. While there is inherent strategic value to the promotion of ties with Southeast Asia's dynamic economies, the moves are also reflective of their common national-rejuvenation programmes.     

The debate on a regional arms register in Southeast Asia

Abstract

ASEAN member states are no longer opposed in principle to military information sharing and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is now actively considering ideas for new confidence‐building measures in this area. The first specific transparency measure supported by ARF was the UN Register of Conventional Arms, whose success in the region has been a result, at least in part, of its flexibility. Because of the limited scope of the UN Register, debate has continued on the possibility of a regional Register. As this debate has proceeded, however, it has become apparent that the creation of such a Register will require a number of complex and difficult issues to be resolved. What additional data should such a Register include? Who should be responsible for operating such a Register? Which countries should be included? Because of these difficulties, the prospects of a regional Register being established in the near future are rather slender. But, as they become more comfortable with the concept of transparency, there is still considerable scope for ARF members to do more to adopt regional ‘best practice’ in their replies to the main UN Register. The Register formula of framework plus flexibility could also be used as a model for the development of parallel transparency arrangements in areas other than arms transfers. The experience of the Register debate suggest that the development of concrete confidence‐building measures in the ARF region is likely to be a gradual process. Progress is possible, but is unlikely to transform levels of national openness on military affairs overnight. The main obstacles to increased transparency may prove to be domestic and political rather than international and military: demonstrating once again the way in which the confidence‐building agenda is linked to broader debates about the necessary political foundations of a secure regional order.     

Going out: China's food security from Southeast Asia

Abstract

China's new five-year plan recognised the looming insecurity in its agricultural sector. On the one hand, the country faces a diminishing arable land supply; on the other, a large population with rapidly increasing diets. Although large-scale trade and investment in this sector has been developing since the mid 1990s between China and a variety of African states, it is a relatively new addition to the more established China-Southeast Asian economic relationship. This article seeks to explore the impact that China's agricultural investments are having on two Southeast Asian countries – Indonesia and the Philippines – where there has been a marked increase in activities by Chinese firms in agricultural produce. The findings from these two case studies – and a series of smaller studies of the situation in other regional states – are used as a benchmark to clarify some of the consequences of China's agricultural investment from Southeast Asia for regional food security.     

US rebalance: potential and limits in Southeast Asia

A central theme of US policy towards Asia during 2012 has been the strengthening of America's military deployments, political relationships and economic partnerships in Southeast Asia. It is evident that China's growing power and assertiveness have provided an important stimulus for renewed US policy activism in a sub-region towards which some observers had detected neglect by Washington over the previous decade. But while Southeast Asian states may take advantage of renewed American interest to hedge against China's rise, most of them will keep their strategic options open.     

东亚威权主义体制下的政治权力谱系

在东亚威权主义体制下,政治领袖大权在握,推行强人政治;受过良好教育、拥有专门知识和专门特长的技术精英和管理精英所组成的精英领导集团实际上掌控着国家政权,位于政治权力金字塔的顶层;军人势力对国家政治生活拥有巨大的干涉能力;推行"一党独大"的政党制度;而工商企业界和宗教势力影响有限,在政治权力谱系中的地位边缘化.     

The elusiveness of regional order: Leifer,the English school and Southeast Asia

Abstract

‘Regional order’ was Michael Leifer's yardstick of choice to assess the international relations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Leifer's recurrent theme was how elusive, and at times how illusory, regional order was for Southeast Asia. The elusiveness of regional order is attributed to ASEAN's lack of a set of genuinely shared assumptions about their interrelationships with each other and external states. This article challenges Leifer's portrait of a Southeast Asia devoid of regional order. I argue that Leifer's notion of order is theoretically underdeveloped and methodologically imprecise, allowing the analyst to see disorder in every minor perturbation in the region. I propose replacing ‘regional order’ with ‘peace and stability’, the preferred terms of the discourse by ASEAN's policy elites. By the latter criteria, ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific, contrary to the skeptics, have made impressive progress in the last forty years.     

ASEAN and the securitization of transnational crime in Southeast Asia

This article studies the securitization of transnational crime by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) since 1996–97. It first introduces transnational crime as a criminal matter before positioning it within the international security debate through an elaboration of the Copenhagen School and its securitization theory. It then examines whether transnational crime has been articulated in security terms in the ASEAN rhetoric. The article demonstrates that the member states have made statements in which they make claims about security in the context of crime. Yet, there is little evidence that this has encouraged regional policy-makers to adopt common security responses. ASEAN has failed to implement joint actions due to domestic circumstances but also because of its own consensus model and resistance to institutional reforms. Finally, the article suggests that the problem of transnational crime could be dealt with more effectively if it was approached primarily as a criminal matter rather than as a security issue.     

Transgressiveness,civil society and Internet control in Southeast Asia

This paper assesses the potential of ASEAN Plus Three (APT) to catalyze a process of economic and political integration in East Asia. The analysis first illustrates APT participants’ projected views of APT’s opportunities and limitations and then assesses the motives and objectives driving APT cooperation. Following a review of the major achievements of APT, the study gives an outlook on APT’s relevance and prospects. The findings of the article are that most APT states do not advocate ideas of distinctive pan-East Asian regionalism, but rather take an Asia-Pacific perspective. Only Malaysia and China appear to be promoting more exclusive forms of East Asian regionalism. Within APT, China is aggressively pushing a strong China–ASEAN axis, whereas Japan is seeking to balance China’s efforts and step up its political and economic cooperative profile in the region. A look at the achievements of APT does not suggest a rapid spread of pan-East Asian regionalism. On the contrary, the proposed ASEAN–China FTA proposal has triggered fierce competition between Japan and China and thus divided APT even further. Moreover, it is not at all certain whether the ASEAN–China FTA plan is going to work out in the end, due to objections from various ASEAN members, including a somewhat capricious Malaysia. Whereas pan-East Asian integration efforts are unlikely, the APT process is attractive enough to keep Japan and China, who are competing for influence in Southeast Asia, committed to the APT process. Regardless of APT’s internal fragmentation, its dynamic has already begun to change the political and economic landscape of East Asia. Thus, ASEAN has been able to enhance its leverage vis-à-vis Japan and China, profiting from their strategic opposition. Japan’s reluctance to discuss trade liberalization with ASEAN members already appears to be crumbling, as it is struggling to preclude Chinese domination.     

Sudpolitik: the political economy of Taiwan's trade with Southeast Asia

Abstract

In December 1993 the Taiwan government adopted a policy called nanjin zhengce or sudpolitik, a policy aimed at diverting part of Taiwan's trade and investment flows from China to Southeast Asia. This paper addresses the following questions: what is sudpolitik? why adopt such a policy? what are the economic, political, and strategic considerations in the pursuit of this policy? which countries are its specific targets? how do the countries directly affected by this policy respond to it? The paper also discusses the issue of Taiwan's aid in connection with sudpolitik. While the effectiveness of the policy is far from clear at present, the paper concludes with four observations: Taiwan's trade and aid are beginning to intertwine; Taiwan's diplomacy is largely economically or commercially led; Taiwan has achieved some positive results in improving its relations with Southeast Asian countries; and, Taiwan has reached a new stage in its economic development whereby it needs to invest overseas in order to sustain its economic growth. Overall, sudpolitik represents a novel step in Taiwan's diplomatic practice.     

东北亚地区的安全合作现状、困境与共同安全合作的可行途径

随着东北亚各国和整个区域的发展,为维护和平与稳定,促进相互合作与共同发展,在该地区建设共同安全合作机制的构想日益引起了东北亚各国的高度重视,但因民族主义与地区主义之间的矛盾、国家间缺乏相互信任和地区不稳定因素的存在,目前各国并未就安全合作的诸多问题达成共识,共同安全的建设进程缓慢。了解地区安全合作的现状,分析其困境,探究建立共同安全合作的可行途径,以便更好地把握该地区安全合作的变化趋势。     

Southeast Asia in the study of international relations: The rise and decline of a region

Three features stand out from the literature on Southeast Asia's international relations, written over the last fifty years: the dominance of extra‐regional scholarship; an overwhelming emphasis on regional security, and a related preponderance of realist perspectives; and the appearance, consolidation, and ebbing of the perceived utility of Southeast Asia as a useful analytical region. During the 1990s, there has been a questioning of the realist assumptions which have underlain international relations writing on the region, and there has been increased emphasis on economic issues. Southeast Asians are making an increasingly important contribution to the study of their own region's international relations, though mainly in terms of policy‐oriented research. The most important recent development has been the questioning of Southeast Asia's usefulness as an analytical region, in view of the growing intensity of economic and security relations between Northeast and Southeast Asia.     

Dangerous dynamics: activists,militants and terrorists in Southeast Asia

This article critiques the view that Southeast Asia has emerged as a key theatre for terrorist activity. While accepting that al-Qaeda and the indigenous Southeast Asian group Jemaah Islamiyah have emerged as a potent threat to regional security, it interrogates the view that this renders Southeast Asia more dangerous than many other parts of the world. The article suggests that this exaggerated sense of threat rests largely on a failure to account for nuanced differences in the nature of Islamist politics in the region. As a small step towards redressing this problem the article outlines a typology of Islamist organizations. It also suggests that a person’s location within this typology is more than a function of religiosity but reflects instead relative degrees of social and political alienation.