Campaign Strategies in the 2015 Swiss National Elections: Nationalization,Coordination, and Personalization

This research note examines parties' campaign strategies in the 2015 Swiss elections. We base our analyses on a collection of more than 5000 party advertisements, which were published in the forefront of the national elections in more than 50 daily and weekly national and cantonal print media. By comparing the amount of party and candidate ads, as well as the content and nature of the political advertisements, we explore the degree of professionalization of electoral campaigns in the most recent federal elections in terms of nationalization, coordination and personalization. First results show that although national campaign coordination exists, Swiss elections are to a considerable extent still cantonal and personal affairs.     

Money, Elections, and Democracy in Brazil

Brazis 1993 law requiring candidates to report their campaign contributions has generated a new source of data to explore the supposition that Brazilian elections are extraordinarily expensive. An examination of these data from Brazis 1994 and 1998 general elections reveals that most money for Brazilian electoral campaigns comes from business sources and that leftist candidates have extremely limited access to such financing. The effect on democracy is that Brazis largely unregulated campaign finance system tends to decrease the scope of interest representation.     

Elections and Economic Turbulence in Brazil: Candidates, Voters, and Investors

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor congruence is more likely before stabilization, when an inverted Philips curve exists, as opposed to following stabilization, when a more traditional Philips curve emerges.     

The 2009 Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: Polarised Electoral Campaign,Exceptional Election Results,and an Unspectacular Process of Government Formation

The elections for the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag were held on 27 September 2009. After conflicts between the governing parties the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), Prime Minister Carstensen had ended the ‘grand coalition’ and called for early elections, one year earlier than scheduled. The electoral campaign centred on the divide between the Christian Democrats who favoured a coalition with the Liberals, and the Social Democrats who competed for a majority together with the Greens. The elections resulted in large shifts in party strength. Christian and Social Democrats together lost about 22 percentage points of votes, while most of the smaller parliamentary parties attained their best election results in Schleswig-Holstein state elections ever. CDU and FDP gained a majority of seats and formed a coalition that re-elected Carstensen into office on 27 October. Using concepts from coalition theory, our analysis shows that a Christian–Liberal coalition was indeed the most likely outcome of the government formation process.     

Electoral Reform, Institutional Change, and Party Adaptation in Uruguay

Uruguay's stable, institutionalized party system has undergone substantial changes in recent years, both from the increasing electoral strength of the left and from changes made to the electoral system in 1996. Analyzing the debut of that new system in the 1999 national and 2000 municipal elections, this article concludes that Uruguay is moving from what was a fairly evenly divided three-party system to one in which the longstanding traditional parties will confront, as a bloc, the stronger left. The electoral analysis shows that the bloc dynamic took over whenever elections were close between the left and one of the traditional parties.     

Just a Matter of Timing? Local Electoral Turnout in Germany in the Context of National and European Parliamentary Elections

This article looks at the impact of national and European elections on turnout in German local council elections. The focus is first on effects from the timing of local council elections in between two federal elections and second on turnout effects from the combination of local council elections and European parliamentary elections. Starting from considerations about the relationships between high- and low-stimulus elections the article analyses data from 111 German local council elections held between 1951 and 2008. The analyses show first that upcoming national elections do mobilise voters to cast their ballots in regions where local council turnout traditionally is low. Second, combining European and local elections tends to reinforce turnout as well.     

Economic Conditions and the Vote for Incumbent Parties in Russia,Poland, Hungary,Slovakia, and the Czech Republic from 1990 to 1996

An American political scientist employs regional electoral, economic, and demographic data across several transition countries—Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Czech Republic, and Russia—to examine the effects of economic conditions on the electoral fortunes of thirty-two incumbent political parties in ten parliamentary elections. “Primary Incumbents” and “Other Incumbents” are distinguished in order to analyze how the “Degree of Incumbency” affects the relationship between economic conditions and election results for these two different types of incumbents in post-communist countries. The article points to new questions and methods for examining multiparty elections as well as for the relationship between economic conditions and voting outcomes.     

Frozen in the Centre,Melting at the Edges?1 The Landtagswahlen in Hesse and Lower Saxony,January 2008

It is rare that two Land elections, taking place on the same day in neighbouring Western Länder, both run by the CDU (in a coalition with the FDP in one), provide such sharp contrasts in both campaigns and outcomes as the Land elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony in January 2008. This election note draws out these contrasts and sets the results in the wider context of their potential impact on the ‘long campaign’ towards the next federal election scheduled for autumn 2009.     

Risk vs Reward Strategies in Indirect Presidential Elections: Political Parties and the Selection of Presidential Electors in Germany, 1949–2017

Parties across parliamentary republics compete fiercely over capturing the presidential office. However, they are often torn between seeing their preferred candidate elected and exploiting the election for publicity purposes. The German case, specifically parties’ ability to nominate extra-parliamentarian electors (EPEs) as part of the electoral college, offers a particularly interesting perspective on how parties balance these competing goals. While EPEs allow parties to boost their profile and strengthen ties with selected groups, they also present a risk factor as their voting behaviour is more difficult to predict. Based on a novel data set on party delegations in German presidential elections, 1949–2017, the analysis shows that – contrary to traditional assumptions – competition in the electoral college did not play a role in EPE nominations. Rather, party strategies were influenced by the varying signalling power of the elections. Parties were more risk-averse and nominated fewer EPEs during grand coalitions, when they were part of the federal government, or when federal elections approached, yet nominated more EPEs when they had a larger support base to reward. The results call for further comparative research on indirect elections and different types of EPEs in Germany.     

An assessment of Botswana's electoral management body to deliver fair elections

Botswana has regularly held general elections since 1965 and in October 2014 held her 11th general election. All these elections have so far been won by the ruling party. The regularity of elections in Botswana has persuaded some observers to present Botswana as an exemplar of democracy and good governance in Africa. This perception is reinforced by the formal existence of an electoral management body, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), whose mandate is to ensure that elections are conducted efficiently, properly, freely and fairly. Although the Constitution enjoins the IEC to ensure that elections are conducted fairly, this article reveals that, in effect, the IEC has neither the authority nor the power to level the electoral playing field, and ensure that elections are also fair, in addition to being conducted efficiently, properly and freely. This inability by Botswana's electoral management body to ensure that elections are conducted fairly emanates from the narrow legal and political framework within which the IEC operates, and exposes the weaknesses of Botswana's much vaunted democracy.     

Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections: The Salience of Electoral Reforms

Nigeria’s 2015 general elections were followed by positive remarks by trusted local and international observers. The highpoint of the elections was the emergence of the opposition candidate as the winner of the 28 March presidential elections. Clearly, this is unprecedented in the electoral history of Nigeria considering the enormous influence that surrounds the office of the incumbent executive in the country. This article analyses the reforms that enhanced the integrity of the elections. The article illustrates the electoral reforms introduced by the electoral management body and their connection to the improvement of the integrity of the 2015 general elections.     

Political Issues, Generation Gap, and Voting Behavior in South Korea: The 2010 Seoul Mayoral Election

Against all odds, South Korea's 2010 local elections were a landslide victory for the coalition of the opposition political parties. This article aims to provide an insight on the dynamic nature of Korean elections and politics by using a public opinion survey in Seoul's mayoral election as a case study. This article finds that the "north wind" triggered by the sinking of the South Korean battleship Cheonan helped the ruling party candidate, but not as much as the ruling party had hoped. Furthermore, a high turnout of the younger voters helped the opposition party candidate by showing a clear generation gap in terms of the important issues, ideology, and party orientation.     

Personalist Politics, Clientelism and Citizenship: Local Elections in El Alto, Bolivia

The article investigates the citizenship practices of urban Aymara in a neighbourhood of El Alto, Bolivia, through an examination of the municipal elections of December 1999. Using ethnographic methods, I focus on the instrumental and affective sides of clientelism, a central feature of Bolivian elections. I argue that clientelism is a part of citizenship practice, a means of engaging with the state in the person of the politician. A majority of the Bolivian population are marginalised from the oligarchic mestizo system of government, as represented by the traditional political parties. However, at local level, and especially during election campaigns, there is more permeability, and this article sees clientelism as a set of strategies through which citizens attempt to make politics, and politicians, more representative and responsive.     

Centre–Periphery Relations and the Emergence of a Public Sphere in Saudi Arabia: The Municipal Elections in the Eastern Province, 1954–1960

This article examines the introduction of municipal elections in Saudi Arabia during the reign of King Sa?ud. The elections from 1954 to the early 1960s constituted important political arenas that have hitherto been overlooked in scholarship on Saudi Arabia. Grievances and political aspirations of the Saudi population were publicly voiced during these elections, which coincided with an emerging radical press and a labour movement at the ARAMCO oil company. Though these elections were limited in scope, marred by procedural flaws and ultimately failed on the institutional level, they nevertheless had a lasting impact on people in the Eastern Province―especially the Shia― and their subsequent political mobilisation outside state structures. As such the municipal elections represent a failed attempt to co-opt local elites and to broaden the popular base of the centre in the periphery. The failure of the municipal elections contributed to the tense relationship between the Saudi centre and the peripheries, which culminated in the 1979 uprising in the Eastern Province.     

Are European Elections Second-Order Elections for Everyone?

Second-order election (SOE) theory has been used to explain voting behaviour in European elections. Voters believe that less is at stake in some elections and some voters hence tend to cast a protest vote. However, most studies on the topic have focused on the demand side of SOEs – i.e. on the voters – and have ignored or only partially tackled the supply side – i.e. the strategic behaviour of parties – and excluded small and marginal parties (SMPs). However, SMPs may have greater incentive to seriously compete in SOEs. The 2019 European Parliament elections in Germany were particularly interesting to SMPs as there was no voting threshold, thereby increasing the chances of SMPs. To capture whether SMPs view European elections as first-order elections and therefore expend more resources than parliamentary parties on these elections, I analysed campaign expenditures and manifestos. Results indicate that SMPs act within a rational actor framework, though not unequivocally.     

Beyond Fateh Corruption and Mass Discontent: Hamas,the Palestinian Left and the 2006 Legislative Elections

The unanticipated victory of Hamas in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections was a defining moment in the study of Islamist politics; the results were a startling surprise to all parties, not least Hamas. Much of the literature that assesses the electoral success of Islamists focuses on the distinct characteristics of Islamist groups, paying less attention to the complex interplay of factors that may account for their success. Examining Hamas's performance in the 2006 legislative elections, this article endeavours to: (1) challenge pervasive analysis which asserts the distinctiveness of Islamist political organisations; (2) situate the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections within a broader discussion of opposition politics in the Arab world; and (3) highlight the significance of long-term organisational trajectories and election campaign strategies in accounting for Islamist electoral performance. Findings in this article have important implications for how we understand Islamist and leftist opposition politics in light of the Arab Spring.     

Emerging Patterns in Liberia's Post-Conflict Politics: Observations from the 2005 Elections

The 2005 elections were the first Liberian elections in overa century in which the political environment was controlledneither by the settler oligarchy nor, latterly, by the dictatorsSamuel Doe and Charles Taylor. Observers feared that the post-conflictenvironment was not conducive to holding elections and thata serious programme of reconciliation and constitutional reformshould have preceded them. Nevertheless, elections were conductedwith some degree of success, providing an opportunity to identifysome emerging patterns in post-conflict Liberian politics. Thisarticle assesses some of the new or hitherto dormant institutionsand processes that are likely to play a significant role inshaping Liberia's political order in the twenty-first century.     

Seconds Out for the Second Round: The Landtagswahl in Hessen,January 2009

The ‘second round’ of the Hessen Landtagswahl was held in mid-January 2009 and was necessitated by the deadlocked outcome of the ‘first round’ held less than a year earlier. The failure of two attempts by the SPD to displace the CDU ‘caretaker’ administration ensured that new elections were the only remaining credible option. The outcome of the 2009 elections overcame this previous deadlock. We need however to be cautious about extrapolating from this particular result to the forthcoming federal election in late September. The nature of partisan competition within the Hessen party system is unique to the Land, and carries little substantive importance outside it.     

6·2地方选举结果与预示：以政党公推为中心

2010年6月2日,韩国在全国范围内进行地方选举,此次地方选举是1991年韩国重新实施地方选举以来的第六届。在以往的地方选举中,获胜的往往是在野党,而此次地方选举也沿袭了这一趋势,作为第一在野党的民主党人士占据了地方自治团体长和地方议会的大部分席位,这预示着当前的政治版图将发生巨大的变化。大国家党在选举中落败的一个原因正是在于公推制度的弊端,因此,本文将以该问题为切入点深入分析6.2地方选举的结果及其预示,以期为地方选举制度中存在的问题提供有益的改善方案。     

Massacre of the Doves?: Interpreting Israel's 2003 Elections

This article argues that Israel's 2003 elections are best understood as a deeper embedding of neoliberalism in the Israeli polity. It is argued that the most accurate characterization of the elections is as an articulation of Polanyi's Phase I of the double-movement. The argument is developed in four stages. First, the Israeli elections are understood as a local reaction to the multilayered processes of globalization. The Israeli state and its elections are located in the neoliberal ideology which underwrites the phenomenon broadly defined as globalization. Second, the election results are reviewed. Third, the dominant interpretations of the elections are critically examined. Specifically, representations of the elections as a defeat of the parties of peace and as a rebuke of Sephardim/ultra-Orthodox influence in Israeli government are interrogated. Fourth, the coalition negotiations of February 2003, the constitution of Israel's 30^th government and some of the initiatives undertaken by Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are explicated through deployment of Polanyi's double-movement framework.