The Putin Thesis and Russian Energy Policy

A specialist on Russian politics and society analyzes Russian President Vladimir Putin's academic work on mineral resources in the Russian economy. Mr. Putin defended a kandidat dissertation in economics and subsequently published an article outlining his view of the appropriate role of the Russian state, and of vertically integrated financial-industrial groups, in the mineral resource sector, and particularly in the oil and gas industry. Connections are drawn between the views expressed in Mr. Putin's publications and policy during his second presidential term.     

普京政权交接问题和俄罗斯外交

历史上俄国领导人的政治任期与俄的国际地位有一定的相关性。俄政权交接制度化程度较低,往往影响到国内和国际稳定。考虑到普京任内卓越的贡献和影响力,其政权交接问题对俄外交势将产生重要的影响。如果2008年普京离任,其外交方针将保持延续性,即普京的接班人将继续一方面把欧亚中部作为外交政策的优先着力点,另一方面努力保持与G7为代表的发达世界之间的和谐。受种种结构性因素制约,如果将来的权力交接出现失控,不排除普京时代的外交进程中断的可能。     

Vladimir Putin and the Reaffirmation of Central State Power

Using post-Soviet Kazakhstan as a conceptual point of departure, this article considers the role that proactive framing and persuasion play in ensuring regime survival in soft authoritarian contexts. Drawing on interviews, opinion polls, news media, and the scholarly literature, the authors use three examples—Kazakhstan's OSCE bid, the global financial crisis, and "Rakhatgate"—that highlight the regime's varying proportions of persuasive and coercive efforts. The ways a soft authoritarian leader responds to potentially threatening events are examined. Non-material sources of regime durability are analyzed as essentials for understanding authoritarian regime dynamics and, by implication, for developing a full theory of regime change.     

普京执政以来俄共的新探索及其困境

普京执政以来,俄共在内外政策和工作重心方面作了新调整,即:对普京从期望到失望;斗争目标从幻想到现实;工作重心从上层转向下层,俄共不断探索在新形势下实现重掌政权、复兴社会主义的目标和手段。     

互动中的普京外交调整与国内改革

9·11事件之后,普京政府抓住国内经济改善、政治结构趋向稳定的时机,大幅度推进了与美国及其他西方国家的关系。大多数民众对普京调整美、俄关系持肯定态度,政治精英层面较民众而言表现出更为复杂的心态。 俄在与西方国家进行战略调整的同时与其他非西方国家接近,也表明俄作为一个欧亚大国毕竟有着不同于一般西方国家的广泛利益。普京政府正是在大国关系调整的背景下,稳步而又积极地推进国内政治、经济的改革。     

普京时代俄罗斯民主模式的内在逻辑及发展前景

俄罗斯国内外围绕普京时代的俄罗斯民主问题产生广泛争议。争论焦点在于俄的民主模式、进程和发展趋势。俄罗斯已经具备了民主的基本要素,但尚不是发达的民主。俄罗斯发展民主的历史尽管很短,但其成就值得充分肯定。俄罗斯不太可能回归到专制制度,而更可能在民主框架内发展。无论将俄罗斯民主冠以何种名称,都是普京正在引导俄罗斯探索的一条独特的、有本国特色的民主政治道路。     

普京重返克里姆林宫——是时候忘记俄罗斯现代化了吗?

尽管面对大规模的抗议示威活动以及竞选舞弊的指责,普京还是获得了2012年总统大选的胜利,踏上了重返克里姆林宫之路。本轮大选表现出两个在俄罗斯历史上从未出现的特征:第一,因特网在俄政治生活中发挥了越来越大的作用,尤其是社交媒体在示威活动组织方面表现出强大的动员能力;第二,普京在竞选过程中做出了高额的社会支出承诺,代表着2000年以来的保守性财政政策的终结,但是俄罗斯的财政收入极易受到国际油价波动的影响,在这种情况下过高的联邦预算支出将为俄罗斯未来的经济形势蒙上一层阴影。本轮竞选活动中发生的大规模群众示威活动表现了新兴中产阶级、知识分子以及商业精英为代表的部分民众的不满,并且对执政者的不满敢于公开表达了,普京未来需要努力与社会达成新的"契约"。国际油价的持续攀升可以保证普京实现其奢侈的开支承诺,但是油价不可能始终保持高位,收回增加退休金、提高教师和医生工资、军队重新装备等开支承诺,不仅会激起人民的反对更会引发利益集团强大的压力。如何保持预算平衡,促进俄罗斯经济稳定发展,普京将面临艰巨的考验。     

普京道路与"梅普组合"

俄罗斯"梅普组合"成为当今国际上的一大热门话题.俄罗斯今后几年甚至更长时间的发展,在很大程度上取决于"梅普组合"的成效.凡事都有两重性,本文侧重从主流方面,谈谈对这个问题的看法.     

普京与地方势力的较量

普京针对叶利钦时期遗留的积弊,采取措施加强中央集权,同地方势力进行斗争。他把俄罗斯卸为七块,建立七个“联邦区”,任命七个总统“全权代表”,力求加强对地方的控制。同时要求改组联邦委员会(上院),使地方长官不得兼任上院议员,使中央有权解除地方长官的职务,并有权解散地方议会。普京的举措符合国家利益,得到社会广泛支持。     

Putin and the Public Chamber

In 2004, Putin created a Public Chamber to enhance state-society dialogue and civilian oversight of the state system. Drawing on interviews with individuals active in Russian civil society or the foreign donor community, this article investigates the Public Chamber's role in legitimating Putin's regime. It examines the vision of state and civil society in the doctrine of "sovereign democracy"; Kremlin strategies for enforcing the narrow parameters this vision gives the public sphere; the model of civil society the Chamber provides, and its actual workings. The Public Chamber's ability to legitimate the regime is considered in the context of civil society's status in Russia.     

Three dilemmas of hybrid regime governance: Russia from Putin to Putin

This article investigates how hybrid regimes supply governance by examining a series of dilemmas (involving elections, the mass media, and state institutions) that their rulers face. The authors demonstrate how regime responses to these dilemmas – typically efforts to maintain control while avoiding outright repression and societal backlash – have negative outcomes, including a weakening of formal institutions, proliferation of “substitutions” (e.g., substitutes for institutions), and increasing centralization and personalization of control. Efforts by Russian leaders to disengage society from the sphere of decision-making entail a significant risk of systemic breakdown in unexpected ways. More specifically, given significantly weakened institutions for interest representation and negotiated compromise, policy-making in the Russian system often amounts to the leadership's best guess (ad hoc manual policy adjustments) as to precisely what society will accept and what it will not, with a significant possibility of miscalculation. Three case studies of the policy-making process are presented: the 2005 cash-for-benefits reform, plans for the development of the Khimki Forest, and changes leading up to and following major public protests in 2011–2012.     

评俄罗斯第四届国家杜马选举

俄罗斯第四届国家杜马选举的结果,“统一俄罗斯”党独占鳌头,俄共遭到严重挫折,自由民主党得票率上升,“祖国”竞选联盟异军突起,“右翼力量联盟”和“亚博卢”惨败。杜马选举的结局为普京在2004年总统选举中争取连任铺平了道路,朝着普京设想的由两三个或四个政党参加的多党制迈出了重要一步,为建立以议会多数党为依托的政府创造了条件。     

Reflections on Putin and the Media

A political scientist investigates the extent to which, under Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin consolidated control over the Russian media. Conceptually, a contrast is drawn between the Soviet and post-Soviet systems of media control. Data-bases are used to illuminate imbalances of television coverage of presidential candidates and public officials as well as the evolution of popular distrust of the media. Comparisons are drawn with President Alberto Fujimori's defunct regime in Peru and speculation is offered as to the fragility of the Kremlin's control over the media.     

俄罗斯联邦国务委员会的起源、发展及作用——基于国家权力结构变迁视角

叶利钦执政早期,国务委员会充分发挥了协调整合行政权力的功能,使俄国家权力结构避免了宪制改革后的严重混乱失衡.1993年《俄罗斯联邦宪法》颁布后,俄罗斯的国家权力结构趋于多元化,国务委员会既无法解决中央层面的总统与立法机关的结构矛盾,又无法解决源自地方分裂主义的"央地"权力结构松散,因而归于沉寂.2000年普京开始执政后重设国务委员会.尤其在2004年"别斯兰事件"发生后,俄罗斯的国家权力结构再度集中,系统性压力激增,国务委员会的作用不断被强化,国务委员会的事务性工作人员得到扩充,工作机制和议事规则得到进一步规范.2008—2012年,国务委员会成为紧密联系"央地"的关键纽带,在一定程度上,维系了国家政治局势的稳定发展.2012年,在普京第三任期,其成功地协调了因"统一俄罗斯"党崛起而引起的联邦中央权力结构张力,缓解了央地行政层面的权力结构矛盾.2020年修宪后,国务委员会的作用向协助总统整合"全联邦"国家权力的方向转变.同时,"国务委员会"获得宪法地位,成为宪法性权力机关.     

Lawmaking and Decree Making in the Russian Federation: Time,Space, and Rules in Russian National Policymaking

Russia's 1993 constitution created a hybrid presidential-parliamentary system in which the president has the power to initiate and veto legislation and to issue normative decrees. Using a comprehensive examination of laws and decrees promulgated in 1994-2004, three political scientists identify key influences on the use of lawmaking and decree-making powers by the president and parliament: constitutional constraints on the use of decree-making power, temporal considerations, and the effect of change in the policy distance between the president and the Duma. The interplay of these forces is illustrated in a case study of the use of law and decree in setting policy on land ownership.     

国家权力与国家能力:俄罗斯转型期的国家治理模式演进——兼论"梅—普"时代的国家治理前景

国家权力与国家能力是影响国家治理的关键变量,能否有效协调二者之间的关系将直接影响国家整体的秩序治理与社会经济发展的长期绩效.本文从国家权力与国家能力的关系入手,对俄罗斯20世纪中期以来的国家治理模式的演化路径以及期间的制度变迁与社会经济绩效变化进行了深刻剖析,对"梅-普"时代的国家治理与社会经济发展前景进行了展望.在此基础上,归纳总结出俄罗斯国家权力与国家能力转换关系的倒U型曲线.