普京政权交接问题和俄罗斯外交

历史上俄国领导人的政治任期与俄的国际地位有一定的相关性。俄政权交接制度化程度较低,往往影响到国内和国际稳定。考虑到普京任内卓越的贡献和影响力,其政权交接问题对俄外交势将产生重要的影响。如果2008年普京离任,其外交方针将保持延续性,即普京的接班人将继续一方面把欧亚中部作为外交政策的优先着力点,另一方面努力保持与G7为代表的发达世界之间的和谐。受种种结构性因素制约,如果将来的权力交接出现失控,不排除普京时代的外交进程中断的可能。     

互动中的普京外交调整与国内改革

9·11事件之后,普京政府抓住国内经济改善、政治结构趋向稳定的时机,大幅度推进了与美国及其他西方国家的关系。大多数民众对普京调整美、俄关系持肯定态度,政治精英层面较民众而言表现出更为复杂的心态。 俄在与西方国家进行战略调整的同时与其他非西方国家接近,也表明俄作为一个欧亚大国毕竟有着不同于一般西方国家的广泛利益。普京政府正是在大国关系调整的背景下,稳步而又积极地推进国内政治、经济的改革。     

The Russian State in the Time of Putin

As Putin's second term ends, the tone of Western opinion toward the president has turned increasingly rancorous. Those who feel embittered by the emergence of semi-authoritarianism and crony capitalism out of the communist collapse might consider blaming the theory as well as the man. This article characterizes the post-communist Russian state and Putin's legacy as state builder. Drawing on the Russian studies literature, the article looks at the underlying mechanisms that have long shaped state—society relations in Russia. Using the concept of power resources as an analytical tool, the article attempts to illuminate these mechanisms and, in so doing, examines what is new and what is familiar in the post-communist Russian state.     

俄美在里海的能源外交政策

里海地区不仅有重要的地缘战略意义 ,而且还蕴藏着丰富的油气资源。冷战后 ,美俄在里海地区展开能源外交 ,以获取经济和地缘政治利益。     

普京政府的俄罗斯东北亚政策特点及影响

普京时期俄罗斯东北亚政策逐渐走向成熟,表现出谋略性、务实性、次要性、机制性、稳定性等多重特点,对东北亚地区安全格局、经济一体化等问题产生重要影响.本文试图通过对此加以分析,找出俄罗斯东北亚政策中的积极因素和制约因素,并就中国应对俄罗斯东北亚政策的策略进行思考.     

普京执政以来俄共的新探索及其困境

普京执政以来,俄共在内外政策和工作重心方面作了新调整,即:对普京从期望到失望;斗争目标从幻想到现实;工作重心从上层转向下层,俄共不断探索在新形势下实现重掌政权、复兴社会主义的目标和手段。     

普京道路与"梅普组合"

俄罗斯"梅普组合"成为当今国际上的一大热门话题.俄罗斯今后几年甚至更长时间的发展,在很大程度上取决于"梅普组合"的成效.凡事都有两重性,本文侧重从主流方面,谈谈对这个问题的看法.     

普京时代俄罗斯民主模式的内在逻辑及发展前景

俄罗斯国内外围绕普京时代的俄罗斯民主问题产生广泛争议。争论焦点在于俄的民主模式、进程和发展趋势。俄罗斯已经具备了民主的基本要素,但尚不是发达的民主。俄罗斯发展民主的历史尽管很短,但其成就值得充分肯定。俄罗斯不太可能回归到专制制度,而更可能在民主框架内发展。无论将俄罗斯民主冠以何种名称,都是普京正在引导俄罗斯探索的一条独特的、有本国特色的民主政治道路。     

普京重返克里姆林宫——是时候忘记俄罗斯现代化了吗?

尽管面对大规模的抗议示威活动以及竞选舞弊的指责,普京还是获得了2012年总统大选的胜利,踏上了重返克里姆林宫之路。本轮大选表现出两个在俄罗斯历史上从未出现的特征:第一,因特网在俄政治生活中发挥了越来越大的作用,尤其是社交媒体在示威活动组织方面表现出强大的动员能力;第二,普京在竞选过程中做出了高额的社会支出承诺,代表着2000年以来的保守性财政政策的终结,但是俄罗斯的财政收入极易受到国际油价波动的影响,在这种情况下过高的联邦预算支出将为俄罗斯未来的经济形势蒙上一层阴影。本轮竞选活动中发生的大规模群众示威活动表现了新兴中产阶级、知识分子以及商业精英为代表的部分民众的不满,并且对执政者的不满敢于公开表达了,普京未来需要努力与社会达成新的"契约"。国际油价的持续攀升可以保证普京实现其奢侈的开支承诺,但是油价不可能始终保持高位,收回增加退休金、提高教师和医生工资、军队重新装备等开支承诺,不仅会激起人民的反对更会引发利益集团强大的压力。如何保持预算平衡,促进俄罗斯经济稳定发展,普京将面临艰巨的考验。     

普京与地方势力的较量

普京针对叶利钦时期遗留的积弊,采取措施加强中央集权,同地方势力进行斗争。他把俄罗斯卸为七块,建立七个“联邦区”,任命七个总统“全权代表”,力求加强对地方的控制。同时要求改组联邦委员会(上院),使地方长官不得兼任上院议员,使中央有权解除地方长官的职务,并有权解散地方议会。普京的举措符合国家利益,得到社会广泛支持。     

梅普组合下俄罗斯经济增长与政策趋势分析

俄罗斯1999年以来经济增长的最重要的原因和基础,是经济转轨之后建立的市场制度以及经济活动的政治风险逐渐降低,世界能源市场行情带来的资金供给也是重要原因之一.2003年之后,经济的自我良性循环又成为俄罗斯经济增长的主要动力.未来俄罗斯经济增长具有如下基础性因素:制度基础继续完善,经济自由度进一步扩展,促进竞争和提高经济活力的市场结构基础得到改善,普京时期推动的建立创新经济的主张进一步得到贯彻实施,国内市场的扩大对国内需求的拉动.梅普在政治自由和经济竞争性政策问题上不存在根本分歧,梅普组合下经济政策将呈现继承性与调整并存的特点,强国战略仍然是他们的基本政策目标,强国战略的基础仍然是经济发展,但下一步将更依赖市场机制推动发展,俄罗斯结构调整的完成将更依靠企业力量,而不是国家力量.俄罗斯经济将继续保持较快持续增长,俄罗斯经济新的增长点将来自制造业和能源原材料加工工业,但俄罗斯经济中的一些深层次矛盾短期内还难以解决,俄罗斯经济增长仍然面临不确定性.     

Russian Policy to Asian Regionalism

In the last fifteen years Russian government policy has seen dramatic changes from almost complete leaning towards the West to a more balanced approach taking into account Russia's interests in Asia. This reversal of attitude was dictated by internal and external factors which, if not addressed, could severely compromise Russian overall position in the world and internal development of its eastern parts. The Russian federal government and their local authorities' policies towards regional groupings in Asia reflect their desire to take part in integration processes. Despite certain achievements in this field, obstacles remain on the road to full-fledged Russian participation benefiting Russia as well as other states. The problems emanate both from internal and external reasons. There are numerous discussions in the expert community on bow to deal with issues hindering economic development of the Russian Far East but they all agree that it cannot be achieved without the active interaction with Asian neighbors.     

Russian Energy and the Korean Peninsula

The recent agreements concerning North Korea’s nuclear program raise possibilities for providing North Korea with energy (oil and gas) to compensate for the termination of its nuclear program and of integrating it more broadly into the Northeast Asian economy. Russia has long wanted to play the role of provider of oil and gas to North Korea and these agreements open up new opportunities for it to do so. However, serious obstacles in the nature of North Korea’s precarious economic situation and its consequences, international rivalries in Northeast Asia, and Russia’s own energy policies present serious obstacles to the realization of Russia’s ambitions as regards North Korea and as energy provider to Northeast Asia as a whole.     

Putin and the Public Chamber

In 2004, Putin created a Public Chamber to enhance state-society dialogue and civilian oversight of the state system. Drawing on interviews with individuals active in Russian civil society or the foreign donor community, this article investigates the Public Chamber's role in legitimating Putin's regime. It examines the vision of state and civil society in the doctrine of "sovereign democracy"; Kremlin strategies for enforcing the narrow parameters this vision gives the public sphere; the model of civil society the Chamber provides, and its actual workings. The Public Chamber's ability to legitimate the regime is considered in the context of civil society's status in Russia.     

Reflections on Putin and the Media

A political scientist investigates the extent to which, under Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin consolidated control over the Russian media. Conceptually, a contrast is drawn between the Soviet and post-Soviet systems of media control. Data-bases are used to illuminate imbalances of television coverage of presidential candidates and public officials as well as the evolution of popular distrust of the media. Comparisons are drawn with President Alberto Fujimori's defunct regime in Peru and speculation is offered as to the fragility of the Kremlin's control over the media.     

Energy Security and Germany's Response to Russian Revisionism: The Dangers of Civilian Power

This article examines the impact of German dependence on Russian gas supplies for Europe's ability to apply effective sanctions against Russia. It demonstrates that by focusing on the environmental dimensions of energy policy and a policy of rapprochement with Russia, Germany has neglected the security of supply implications of its dependence on Russian gas. The article argues that Germany's excessive energy dependence on Russia has limited the ability of the EU to challenge Russian revisionism by targeting its energy sector through sanctions. The article makes a number of energy policy recommendations which will be essential for Germany to avoid undue Russian influence on its foreign and security policies. The article concludes by exploring the utility of Neoclassical Realism in understanding Germany's approach to energy security. In doing so it highlights the dangers of allowing ideology to cloud a sober assessment of the imperatives of the balance of theat.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

东北亚能源合作与日本外交政策

东北亚国家普遍面临严峻的能源安全问题.能源多边合作不仅能有效地改善各方的能源安全状况,而且有利于缓和地区紧张局势.但受制于日本外交政策,作为多边合作关键的中日两国却一直处于竞争状态,合作只能在局部合作利益非常突出的场合展开.基于总体竞争、局部有限合作的判断,中国在积极主张合作的同时,必须提升能源战略,对日政策应做两手准备.