Reflections on Arzamas-16

Three German economists analyze the determinants of access to health care in rural Russia and ask whether income and ability-to-pay, emerging as the major determinants of access in urban areas, have begun to govern rural populations' access to health-care services. Using household data from a survey conducted in the year 2000 (N=321 households) in two regions of Russia—Oryol and Leningrad Oblasts—the authors examine how the reduced role of the state and the concomitant decentralization of policy-making have affected access of the rural populace to health services. Broader policy implications and suggestions for ensuring future access to services in rural areas are offered.     

Agrarian Reform in Post-Soviet Russia

A leading American specialist on Soviet and Russian agriculture examines the politics and economics of agrarian reform in Russia. Coverage includes institutional reform, finance, local privatization, and interest group activities. Based on six extended visits to Russia during 1992-1994, participant observation, interviews and documentary materials, the author concludes that any successful reform must craft economic measures that will avoid recreating a unified rural bloc in opposition to reforms. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers P32, Q15, Q18.     

Export Growth and Development to Poor Rural Regions: a Meso-Scale Analysis of the Upper Limari

Abstract — The aim of this article is to explore the recent social and economic evolution of a rural region that was formerly one of the poorest in Chile but has been transformed by a productive specialisation in table grapes for export markets. The region is that of the Upper Limari in Chile's semi-arid Norte Chico. The analysis focuses on changes in four interrelated variables: productive investments; land markets; labour markets; and population distribution. Rapid growth in investment, the emergence of dynamic land markets, dramatic increases in labour productivity have transformed the agricultural sector. Small-scale farming has survived poorly due to lack of capital, technical problems and lack of bargaining power with the international fruit companies. The large-scale farmers have enjoyed better conditions and a reconcentration of land has occurred. However, the emergence of new productive activities in an area where labour alternatives have been historically scarce has provided new sources of income. Population is increasing in rural settlements linked to irrigated agroexportation and quality of life indicators have improved. Rural depopulation is not a feature of the region as a whole.     

Gender and local executive office in regional Russia: the party of power as a vehicle for women’s empowerment?

We employ a political ambition framework to study women’s under-representation in Russian local politics. We conduct a survey of current heads of municipal districts and municipal urban and rural settlements in four regions of the Russian Federation. The study reveals gendered pathways to local leadership positions. The advantage of incumbency is fully used by male politicians: male incumbents are more likely than female incumbents to run for re-election. Self-initiated ambition, term in office, and age explain the decisions of male executives to run for re-election. Female incumbents are likely to run for a subsequent term only if they are supported by the United Russia Party.     

从对俄政策调整看日本周边外交的困境

日俄关系在日本的周边外交中占有重要位置,近年来日本试图通过调整对俄政策彰显外交的自主性,改善周边外交状况,推出了一些新的政策措施。首先,日本建议绕开领土问题,扩大与俄罗斯的经济合作,为两国关系的彻底改善,也为最终解决领土问题奠定基础。其次,提出日俄在争议领土从事"共同经济活动"的建议,旨在与俄罗斯在争议领土进行"共同"开发,获得俄罗斯默认日本对争议领土具有主权权利,以便打开日俄关系的大门。第三,日本试图通过调整对俄政策改善周边关系,维护日本在周边外交中的有利地位。但是,日本的对俄政策依然受到内外因素限制,俄罗斯不会轻易在领土问题上让步,日本国内舆论也不可能支持政府在领土问题上让步,日俄之间也不可能在领土问题上达成共识,日俄之间的经济合作也很难脱离政治环境而有所扩大,特别是在日美同盟的框架下,日俄合作具有局限性,日本的周边外交仍然陷于困境之中。     

Towards conflict or cooperation? The Ukraine crisis and EU-Russia relations

The Ukraine crisis and Russia’s contribution to it have raised numerous concerns regarding the possible emergence of a new ‘Cold War’ in Europe. At the same time, Ukraine’s popular choice and enthusiasm for European integration expressed clearly on the streets of Kyiv seem to have caused Russia to adopt a (neo)revisionist attitude. In this context, relations between Russia and the EU (and the West for that matter) have been limited, frozen and directed on path towards conflict. This article analyses how the traditional dichotomy between conflict and cooperation in EU–Russia relations was replaced by conflict in the context of the Ukraine crisis. The article contends that the breakdown of the symbolic and peaceful cohabitation between the EU and Russia has been influenced by the fact that both actors have chosen to ignore key tensions that characterized their post-Cold War interactions. The article identifies three such tensions: the first emphasizes divisions between EU member states and their impact on coagulating a common EU approach towards Russia; the second (geopolitical) tension highlights the almost mutually exclusive way in which the EU and Russia’s security interests have developed in the post-Soviet space; finally, the third contends that a clash of values and worldviews between the EU and Russia makes conflict virtually unavoidable.     

盟友还是对手?俄罗斯与伊朗、土耳其在叙利亚问题上的关切与挑战

在叙利亚问题上,俄罗斯被视为最关键的一方。俄罗斯在2015年9月直接出兵叙利亚,帮助叙利亚政府收复大片土地,并与伊朗和土耳其一起,通过阿斯塔纳和平进程、索契和平进程,逐渐稳定了叙利亚的国内局势。此外,俄罗斯还积极促成叙利亚"宪法委员会"的成立,推动叙利亚开启战后政治重建进程。随着叙利亚国内局势逐渐缓和,俄罗斯在叙利亚问题上面临着新的挑战。一方面,俄罗斯需要面对伊朗和土耳其在叙利亚的关切。俄、伊、土三国在叙利亚问题上分歧犹存,很可能会导致叙利亚局势再度紧张。另一方面,俄罗斯需要处理好叙利亚一些敏感的政治和安全事项,维系叙利亚国内战局稳定,推动叙利亚政治重建进程实现突破。     

The Poverty of Democracy: Neoliberal Reforms and Political Participation of the Poor in Mexico

Twenty years after governments across Latin America began implementing neoliberal reforms in earnest, concern is growing about their impact on the quality of democracy in the region. This article examines this issue in the case of Mexico by exploring how patterns of political participation, especially among the rural and urban poor, have changed since the implementation of free market reforms. It asks whether the institutional innovations associated with free market reforms make it easier or more difficult for the poor to participate in Mexico's political process. The answer is not encouraging. Despite democratic openings, the new linkages between the state and citizens established as a result of the transition to a free market development model stifle the voice of the poor not through the threat of force or coercion, but by creating obstacles and disincentives for political mobilization that affect the poor more severely than other groups.     

Local Politics and Political Power in Russia: The Case of Yaroslavl'

An American political scientist surveys local political reforms in Russia as they were proposed in 1988-1989 and implemented in 1990-1991. Using the city and provincial governments of Yaroslavl' as a case study, the author examines whether old political elites have shown themselves capable of adapting to the new political rules and retaining influence over local decision making. The paper then assesses differences in the strength of this influence in rural and urban areas and consequences of the power struggle between old and new political elites for Russian President Yel'tsin's reform program. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P20, H1.     

俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。     

NATO–Russia security challenges in the aftermath of Ukraine conflict: managing Black Sea security and beyond

NATO’s relationship with the Soviet Union and then Russia has been central to defining the European regional and global security configuration for decades. This article explores the potential consequences of the Ukrainian conflict for the current and future NATO–Russia relationship. The analysis focuses on defining specific challenges and risks for NATO and Russia in managing the evolving security environment of the Black Sea region. The author offers an assessment of the potential for future NATO–Russia clashes or cooperation in the Black Sea, and for broader regional and global security. Some recommendations are suggested for managing the future NATO–Russia relationship during this period of heightened uncertainty and risk.     

商业理念还是地缘政治?——欧美在欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖上的分歧根源及其影响

俄欧天然气关系是跨大西洋伙伴关系中极具争议的议题。欧洲对俄天然气的商业理念之核心,是通过制度设计约束俄罗斯行为的不确定性,同时通过器物层面的天然气基础设施建设和进口多元化,降低俄罗斯中断天然气供给的潜在威胁,最终使俄罗斯成为安全可靠的天然气供给来源。在有关俄欧天然气关系的地缘政治思维上,美国已不仅仅着眼于俄天然气是否会对欧洲能源安全构成威胁,而是更多地将俄天然气视为助长其对外行为能力的重要工具加以限制。随着欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖增强与美国经济制裁力度加大,美欧俄面临经济制裁与国家治理的困境。这一困境可能导致跨大西洋伙伴关系的裂痕加深。欧盟能否通过地缘政治转向应对不断加剧的天然气地缘竞争,取决于其将经济力量变为政治意图的现实可能与效果。     

Understanding Russia’s energy turn to China: domestic narratives and national identity priorities

This study investigates whether, as part of a broader “Asian Energy Pivot,” Russia’s energy giant Gazprom refashioned its export strategy away from Europe, and what impact such a reorientation might have on the EU–Russia gas relationship. It uses four empirical cases to emphasize the domestic movers underlying Russia’s eastward shift in energy trade, developing a constructivist theory rooted in the dynamics of Russia’s dominant public narrative and the contours of domestic politics. It argues that Russia’s national interests changed as a result of how Russian policy-makers interpreted and reacted to the stand-off with Europe, in response to what they perceived as Europe’s attempt to isolate it economically and geopolitically. Russia’s Eurasianists, who had advocated the notion of a necessary turn to the East for a long time, positioned themselves as norm entrepreneurs and their new interpretation of the preexisting material incentives shaped the future course of action.     

当代俄罗斯的保守主义

当前俄罗斯主要的政治思想是保守主义,它的提出具有深刻的背景,其内涵是对俄罗斯主流政治价值观——"主权民主"思想的延续与发展。俄罗斯以保守主义为指导采取的政治举措具有积极的意义,并对俄罗斯的发展产生重要影响。当代保守主义的兴起与发展体现了俄罗斯政治转轨从制度巩固到观念巩固的基本特点。俄罗斯保守主义的前景取决于"统一俄罗斯"党的发展变化、俄罗斯克服金融危机的能力和水平,以及俄罗斯政治转轨整体进程的根本要求。     

从除魅到建构——苏尔科夫政治思想的历程与嬗变

作为俄罗斯最重要的政治思想家之一,苏尔科夫的思想理论深刻地影响着俄罗斯的制度建设与国家发展。纵观其思想历程,可以总结为三个比较明晰的发展阶段:第一阶段,2005年,随着普京在第二任期前后夯实了执政地位,苏尔科夫开始打造主权民主的治理理论,并促之成为了官方的政治意识形态;第二阶段开始于俄罗斯与西方爆发对立冲突的乌克兰危机,苏尔科夫展开了对俄罗斯之独特性与二元文明的探讨;第三阶段则是普京开启最后任期之际,苏尔科夫对普京道路进行了总结并极尽鼓吹,认为根植于俄罗斯特有的历史文化与民族特性中的普京道路,才是最适合也是必须遵循的俄罗斯未来发展之路。始于消除西式民主的“魅”,到最终完成对俄罗斯方案的话语建构,通过这三个阶段,苏尔科夫打造出了一套当今俄罗斯的意识形态体系,以此提供了“俄罗斯是谁”、“俄罗斯向何处去”的苏氏答案。     

Chinese Immigration to Russia and Its Non-traditional Security Impact

Russia and China rapidly restore communication after the Cold War, but the Chinese immigration issue is also widely exaggerated and even described as “Yellow Peril again” in Russia. The so-called Yellow Peril is not only a Russian object perception but also a cross-generational conflict between Russia and China. Furthermore, it will be related to the subsequent development of the Russian Far East and Siberia. The Chinese immigration constitutes psychological and survival non-traditional security impacts on Russia and also forms some kind of social competition with Russians. It is vital for Russia to cooperate with its eastern neighbor to accelerate the development of the Russian Far East and Siberia, but national security and social stability are the prerequisites for cooperation. Nevertheless, it is more significant to rebuild self-confidence of the Russians in the Russian Far East and acknowledge that the East will not be a threat to Russia. As long as Russia realizes that it can enjoy unlimited possibilities in the East, the non-traditional security impacts caused by the Chinese immigration will automatically alleviate and even disappear. Today, most Russians are trapped in the dilemma of welcoming or refusing the Chinese immigrants; however, cultural exchange still has some effects and at least causes Russians to begin to positively treat the Chinese immigration and consider whether to accept China and cooperate with China.     

Τhe energy parameters of the Russian–Ukrainian–EU impasse: dependencies,sanctions and the rise of ‘Turkish Stream’

The overwhelming dependency of Ukraine on Russian energy and the lack of any short-to-medium term diversification of European Union (EU) oil and gas supplies away from Moscow dictate a cooperative approach vis-à-vis Russia in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis. The EU is unable to impose any more severe sanctions on Russia’s energy industry without provoking a major negative impact on its own troubled economy. The continuation of the current confrontational friction in EU–Russian energy relations will most likely consolidate Russia’s decision to seek the elimination of its gas transit dependence on Ukraine after 2020. Such a target will be very difficult to attain by the end of this decade, even if Russia will be able to partly replace the now abandoned South Stream project with Turkish Stream.     

从“北溪-2”项目看德俄关系及俄美欧三方博弈

作为两个重要的地区大国,德国与俄罗斯的关系对彼此和欧洲都有着重要影响。在双边关系中,能源因素因其对国民经济生产的决定性意义长期发挥着“稳定器”的作用。2018年9月,由德俄牵头,法国、奥地利与荷兰合资建造的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目正式动工铺设。该项目将使输往欧洲的俄罗斯天然气绕开乌克兰,经过波罗的海海底直接连通德俄两国,德国由此成为俄罗斯天然气最重要的转运国。此举虽然在双边层面上保证了德俄的能源经济安全,但在多边层面却招致欧盟、美国等多方反对。因担心会进一步加深对俄罗斯能源的依赖,欧盟委员会及中东欧国家欲诉诸法律对该项目施以约束;美国在制裁项目企业的同时转而向波兰、乌克兰等国出口液化天然气,在利用政治机遇抢占欧洲市场的同时试图制衡俄罗斯的影响力。在多方力量博弈中,德国需要在平衡俄美欧关系中付出更多努力。     

第一次俄朝“密约”事件新论

甲申政变后，中国和日本有在朝鲜发生战争的可能，于是朝鲜一年里几次请求俄国在中日发生战争时保护朝鲜。俄国鉴于朝鲜复杂的国际局势和自己在东北亚地区的实力，没有答应，因而两国没有缔结俄国保护朝鲜、朝鲜给予俄国一些特权的秘密条约。但是各国对俄国插手朝鲜事务持有极强的警惕性，朝鲜的“引俄”行为及俄国的表现被夸大，都采取了阻止俄朝接近的措施，这就是第一次俄朝“密约”事件。此次事件无论是对当事国——朝鲜和俄国，还是对在朝鲜有重大利益关系的国家——中国、日本都产生了很大影响，各国纷纷调整了对外政策或对朝鲜政策。     

Diminishing returns: Russia’s participation in the World Trade Organization

Russia’s 2012 accession to the World Trade Organization was widely expected to spur economic growth and modernization, by helping the country abandon its import-substitution model and fully integrate into the global economy. However, thus far, Russia’s compliance record with its WTO commitments has been mixed, and WTO membership has given Russia limited economic benefits and few political gains. In analyzing why, this article uses neoclassical realism as a framework for assessing Russia’s behavior in WTO trade disputes and negotiations. During Russia’s economic recession, the regime of President Vladimir Putin advanced protectionist policies and maintained statist control over the heights of the economy, while using rhetorical strategies to counter accusations from Western powers that Russia had violated WTO norms. Russia’s struggling economy weakened its status as a global economic power, and it was viewed as unqualified to sit among the core group of negotiators in the WTO.