Causes of the Collapse of the USSR

The paper studies Russia's Ukraine policy since the Orange Revolution. Russia's policy toward its western neighbor has evolved from unhappy relations with Victor Yushchenko to rapprochement with Victor Yanukovich and then confrontation over the revolutionary power change in Kiev in February 2014. The paper argues that Vladimir Putin's actions following February revolution in Kiev demonstrate both change and continuity in Russia's foreign policy. Although these actions constituted a major escalation, relative to Russia's previous behavior toward Ukraine, the escalation of relations with Kiev also reflected a broader policy pattern of Russia's assertive relations with the Western nations adopted by the Kremlin since the mid-2000s. What made Russia's conflict with Ukraine possible, even inevitable, was the West's lack of recognition for Russia's values and interests in Eurasia, on the one hand, and the critically important role that Ukraine played in the Kremlin's foreign policy calculations, on the other. The paper provides an empirically grounded interpretation of Russia's changing policy that emphasizes Russia–Ukraine–West interaction and a mutually reinforcing dynamics of their misunderstanding. It also addresses four alternative explanations of Russia's Ukraine policy and discusses several dangers and possible solutions to the crisis.     

Russia in the Post-Western World: The End of the Normalization Paradigm?

If the relative decline of the West and the great power shift defined as "the rise of the rest" are approaching, there are important implications for Russia's foreign policy. Drawing on the work of Russian and Western commentators, this article offers a preliminary assessment of the post-Western world's implications for Russia and its foreign policy. The challenge of the emerging post-Western world and the manifestations of the West's declining hard and soft power dimensions are described; several schools of Russian thought on current international conditions and Russia's own domestic capabilities are identified and analyzed; and Russia's potential to act as a post-Western great power is assessed.     

Winners and Losers in the Postcommunist Transition: New Evidence from Estonia

An American specialist on Russian politics and federalism examines the democratizing effects, intended and unintended, of President Vladimir Putin's federative reforms. Focus is on the "harmonization" of regional constitutions and legislation with federal laws and the RF Constitution in the name of the "reintegration of Russia's legal space." On the basis of detailed analysis of changes in regional constitutions and laws ensuing from the harmonization policy, the author assesses the impact of this aspect of the reforms on democratization in Russia's regions. Regional issues examined include the separation and balance of power between the executive and legislative branches, political and civil rights, the level of demand for democratic laws and independent judicial review, and the emergence of stakeholders of these reforms within civil society.     

Russia's “turn to the east”: a study in policy making

Russia's recent reorientation “to the East” has gained increased urgency given events in Ukraine. Here the policymaking process surrounding the “turn to the East” is examined. The focus is on the economic dimension – the economic development of the Russian Far East and engagement with the Asia-Pacific region – rather than geostrategic and security issues. Policymaking is evaluated in terms of general approach and process, with the implications of the evaluation for Russian policymaking more generally then being explored. “Turn to the East” policymaking exhibits a strong commitment to strategic planning that is characteristic of Putin, and which in this case struggles not only with process issues but also with contradictions within the strategy and the challenging realities of the region. Regarding process, a far more institutionalized policy process than the currently dominant personalist view would lead us to expect is found, with relevant bureaucratic and non-state actors well represented in an elaborate and relatively formal process. However a considerable weakening of sign-off procedures is noted, which has lead to policy inconsistency and indeed “policy irresponsibility” among participants. The author attributes the weakening of sign-off procedures to Putin's frustration with the gridlock tendencies of strict sign-off regimes, rather than a desire to create a personalist regime of hands-on management. This suggests that improvement of the Russian policy process requires structural and procedural change, rather than simply leadership change.     

Making the Best of a Bad Hand: An Assessment of Current Trends in Russian Foreign Policy

An expert on international relations analyzes current trends in Russian foreign policy drawing on materials from the press and other media as well as current scholarly analysis. Contemporary policies are analyzed to address the question of what policies Moscow is likely to pursue in order to reestablish Russia's great-power status.     

The Impact of WTO Accession on Russia's Agriculture

The article analyzes the impact of WTO accession on Russia's agricultural sector. Three aspects of WTO rules that will affect Russian agriculture are examined: (1) financial support from the Russian government, (2) market access for foreign imports, and (3) market access for Russia's food exports. Addressing the question of positive and negative impacts on Russia's agricultural sector, the article asks if a pessimistic view that sees primarily negative consequences as a result of accession is justified. Claims made by skeptics who are dismissive of the impact WTO entry will have on Russian agriculture are also considered.     

The Putin Thesis and Russian Energy Policy

A specialist on Russian politics and society analyzes Russian President Vladimir Putin's academic work on mineral resources in the Russian economy. Mr. Putin defended a kandidat dissertation in economics and subsequently published an article outlining his view of the appropriate role of the Russian state, and of vertically integrated financial-industrial groups, in the mineral resource sector, and particularly in the oil and gas industry. Connections are drawn between the views expressed in Mr. Putin's publications and policy during his second presidential term.     

Russia's Foreign Policy Towards North Africa in the Wake of the Arab Spring

Since coming to power in 2000, Russian president Vladimir Putin has tried to construct a narrative of regaining Russia's status as a major global power. However, in practice the Kremlin has yet to create a coherent strategy or achieve a sense of a co-ordinated foreign policy. While North Africa has not been at the forefront of this narrative, recently Moscow has intensified its diplomatic links and cooperation with the regimes in the region. The Arab Spring presented Russian policy makers with a series of challenges regarding the uncertainty of the developments in the region, but also with renewed economic opportunities. This profile analyses Moscow's relationships with the countries in North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) in the wake of the Arab Spring. In each case the Kremlin aimed to take advantage of the new opportunities without really being guided by an overarching strategy for the region. However, Russia increasingly seems to be keen to position itself in the region as an alternative to the EU or the US, not least in light of the current war in Ukraine.     

The Russian State in the Time of Putin

As Putin's second term ends, the tone of Western opinion toward the president has turned increasingly rancorous. Those who feel embittered by the emergence of semi-authoritarianism and crony capitalism out of the communist collapse might consider blaming the theory as well as the man. This article characterizes the post-communist Russian state and Putin's legacy as state builder. Drawing on the Russian studies literature, the article looks at the underlying mechanisms that have long shaped state—society relations in Russia. Using the concept of power resources as an analytical tool, the article attempts to illuminate these mechanisms and, in so doing, examines what is new and what is familiar in the post-communist Russian state.     

Putin's popularity since 2010: why did support for the Kremlin plunge,then stabilize?

This paper seeks to explain the surprising decline in Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating in 2011. During the previous 10 years, Putin's rating had correlated closely with Russians' perceptions of the state of the economy. Yet the fall in his approval – from 79% in December 2010 to 63% a year later – occurred despite roughly stable economic perceptions. Comparing Levada Center polls from late 2010 and 2011, the paper explores both who (what types of respondents) grew disenchanted with Putin, and why (what issues or grievances prompted this switch). It finds that (a) the fall in support for the Kremlin – although faster among members of the “creative class,” women, the rich, and residents of provincial cities – was broad-based, occurring among all social groups examined; (b) attitudes toward immigration, the West, and Russia's international status, as well as assessments of public service quality, changed little during 2011; (c) Putin's declining popularity most likely reflected stronger – not weaker – economic concerns; although the proportion judging economic performance to be poor did not increase, those who saw economic weakness became much less supportive of the Kremlin. Russians appear to have increasingly blamed their political leaders for unsatisfactory economic and political outcomes.     

Fearing the Ghosts of State Officialdom Past? Russia's Archives as a Tool for Constructing Historical Memories of Its Persia Policy Practices

The overarching task of this article is to directly present the main crucial venues – a prototype road map of Russia's study of Persia in the context of foreign policy – to the students of Russia and its relations with Persia, as well as, more specifically, to researchers of Russia's late Imperial and early Soviet policy towards Middle East and Oriental studies therein. Simultaneously, taking into consideration the equivocal and quite often controversial nature of conducting archival research in Russia, it is worth knowing that a scholarly activity, seemingly conventional and rather straightforward in the West, can turn into an adventurous quest in present-day Russia, hampered by various factors. So the article also touches upon the current condition of the archival industry in present-day Russia, with the emphasis on the traditionally most burning issue in this field, namely the unjustifiably excessive secrecy, underpinned by the discourse of protecting Russian state interests, which can turn out to be an unexpected obstacle to research into a period even dating back a hundred years.     

Contemporary Russian conservatism

This article analyzes contemporary Russian conservatism through the prism of ideational and positionist ideological perspectives. The author argues that Russian conservatism proposes a distinct value package through its anthropocentric nature, its plans for modernization of Russia, and its future outlook that must rest on the best elements of tradition. The author compares these trends with the Western conservative tradition, making distinct parallels between the two strands of conservative thought. The author also explores the attitude of Russian conservatism toward the post-modern world. This is intrinsically linked to the discussion of Russia's attempts to develop a political and ideational alternative to the West, introduce a distinct model for the architecture of international relations, and find Russia's position in the global world.     

Is Russia a militocracy? Conceptual issues and extant findings regarding elite militarization

The dominant paradigm for understanding contemporary Russia holds that Vladimir Putin's tenure in office has been accompanied by a massive influx of former KGB and military personnel – so-called “siloviki” – into positions of power and authority throughout the polity and economy. Claims of extensive elite militarization, however, are largely based on the analyses of only one research program and, moreover, the validity of the estimates produced by that research program is open to question on numerous grounds. In this article, we review existing research on elite militarization in Russia; discuss a series of conceptual and empirical issues that need to be resolved if valid and meaningful estimation of military–security representation is to be achieved; introduce new findings; and evaluate the totality of existing evidence regarding whether the Russian state under Putin deserves to be labeled a militocracy. We find that the most straightforward reading of existing data indicates that the percentage of siloviki in the political elite during Putin's first two terms as president was approximately half of that which has been widely reported in both scholarship and the media, and also declined during the Medvedev presidency. In addition, our analysis of a broader cross section of the elite estimates military–security representation during the Putin presidency to have been lower still. Overall, existing data paint a less alarming picture of the depths to which siloviki have penetrated the corridors of power since 2000 than has been commonly portrayed and thereby cast doubt on Russia's status as an “FSB state.” On the other hand, past trends also provide some basis for expecting that the numbers of siloviki will once again rise during Putin's current presidential term.     

Russia's energy governance transitions and implications for enhanced cooperation with China,Japan, and South Korea

A Tokyo-based economist and a noted western economic geographer, both specializing in the hydrocarbon resources of Russia, apply the framework of governance studies in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the recent changes in the country's energy policy-making. The authors argue that, unlike the international relations paradigm prevailing in studies of Russia's energy policy, the country's multiple roles in the international energy arena (as producer, consumer, exporter, importer, and transit state) warrant a more nuanced approach, reflecting Russian energy policy's flexibility over time and diversity across space. This paper endeavors, therefore, to apply a political economy and governance perspective to an understanding of the significant changes in Russia's energy policy-making regarding its dynamic energy relations with the Northeast Asia (NEA; China, Japan, and South Korea). In exploring the complex interactions between Russia's internal energy policy-making and its emerging energy relations in NEA, the authors addresses three key questions, namely: (1) how Russia's Asian energy policy corresponds to its domestic needs, (2) how much coherence in energy governance and cooperation exists between Russia and the Northeast Asian states at the institutional and organizational levels, and (3) the extent to which Russia's expectations for increased energy cooperation with the Northeast Asian states are likely to materialize.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

Putin and the Public Chamber

In 2004, Putin created a Public Chamber to enhance state-society dialogue and civilian oversight of the state system. Drawing on interviews with individuals active in Russian civil society or the foreign donor community, this article investigates the Public Chamber's role in legitimating Putin's regime. It examines the vision of state and civil society in the doctrine of "sovereign democracy"; Kremlin strategies for enforcing the narrow parameters this vision gives the public sphere; the model of civil society the Chamber provides, and its actual workings. The Public Chamber's ability to legitimate the regime is considered in the context of civil society's status in Russia.     

Stalinism and Russian Nationalism: A Reconceptualization

A sologist analyzes the idea of Russian nationalism as it evolved under Lenin and Stalin. Based on a reconsideration of Soviet history and of Stalin's and others' published statements, the article reexamines the relationship between Soviet and Russian identity and nationalism. The article concludes with discussion of the implications of this historical legacy for Putin's Russia.     

Rethinking Russian pan-Slavism in the Ottoman Balkans: N.P. Ignatiev and the Slavic Benevolent Committee (1856–77)

In the mid-nineteenth century pan-Slavic ideology was evident at two levels: at the personal level in N.P. Ignatiev's diplomacy, and at the institutional level in the Slavic Benevolent Committee's activities. Both served to spread Russian influence among the Slavic Orthodox subjects of the Ottoman Sultan. The Russian Archives contain a wealth of material related to the Slavic Benevolent Committee and Ambassador N.P. Ignatiev's activities concerning Russia's Balkan policy. The memoirs of the Russian and Ottoman bureaucratic elites also offer great detail on the subject. Relying upon these archival sources and memoirs, this article aims to discuss the transformation of pan-Slavic ideology from a cultural organization into a Russian political asset, with special attention to N.P. Ignatiev and the Slavic Benevolent Committee.     

Russian Policy to Asian Regionalism

In the last fifteen years Russian government policy has seen dramatic changes from almost complete leaning towards the West to a more balanced approach taking into account Russia's interests in Asia. This reversal of attitude was dictated by internal and external factors which, if not addressed, could severely compromise Russian overall position in the world and internal development of its eastern parts. The Russian federal government and their local authorities' policies towards regional groupings in Asia reflect their desire to take part in integration processes. Despite certain achievements in this field, obstacles remain on the road to full-fledged Russian participation benefiting Russia as well as other states. The problems emanate both from internal and external reasons. There are numerous discussions in the expert community on bow to deal with issues hindering economic development of the Russian Far East but they all agree that it cannot be achieved without the active interaction with Asian neighbors.     

Imperial nostalgia or prudent geopolitics? Russia's efforts to reintegrate the post-Soviet space in geopolitical perspective

After stagnating throughout most of the 1990s and 2000s, Russia's efforts to reintegrate the post-Soviet space are finally gathering momentum. According to President Vladimir Putin, Russia's goal is to establish a Eurasian Economic Union “capable of becoming one of the poles in a future multi-polar world.” Most existing studies see Russia's imperial and post-Soviet legacies as the driving forces behind these efforts. Although they offer valuable insights, these studies fail to explain the timing of Russia's push for deeper regional integration. This article examines these developments from a geopolitical perspective and compares Eurasian regionalism with the regional integration projects of other great powers (more specifically, Brazil and Mercosur/Unasur and China and ASEAN+1). All three efforts are occurring at a time when the international system is in flux and the ability of the USA and other Western powers to deliver key global collective goods is being called into question. Regional integration must ultimately be seen as a strategy by Russia and other great powers to respond to these challenges and prepare themselves for an unpredictable future.